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Engr 323
Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59
Page 1 of 3
P( A B )
P( B)
Law of Total Probability (p. 73) Let A1, . . . , An be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Then for any other event B,
P(B) = P(B|A1)P(A1) + +P(B|An)P(An) = P(B|AI)P(AI)
P(B) = P(A1B) P(AnB)
Multiplication Rule for P(A
B) (p.70)
P(AB) = P(A|B) P(B)
Melinda Goossen
Engr 323
Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59
Page 2 of 3
Helpful Hints:
Before we begin trying to answer part a., we need to go through the problem and define the
given events and probabilities. Once weve done define the given events and probabilities, we can
create both a venn diagram and a tree diagram to help clarify the situation as shown in Figure 1.
And then, after defining the events and creating the diagrams, we can commence solving the
problem.
Solution:
A1 = {use regular unleaded gas}
A2 = {use extra unleaded gas}
A3 = {use premium unleaded gas}
B = {fill the tank completely}
B = {not filling the tank completely}
P(A1) = 0.40
P(A2) = 0.35
P(A3) = 0.25
P(B|A1) = 0.30
P(B|A2) = 0.60
P(B|A3) = 0.50
A2
A3
A1
A 1 B
A2B
A3B
P( A2 B) = P( B A2 ) = P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) = (0.60)(0.35) = 0.21
b. What is the probability that the next customer fills the tank?
P(B) is found by using the law of total probability.
P( B) = P( B A1 ) + P( B A2 ) + P ( B A3 )
P( B) = P( B | A1 ) P( A1 ) + P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) + P( B | A3 ) P ( A3 )
P( B) = (0.30)(0.40) + (0.60)(0.35) + (0.50)(0.25) = 0.455
Melinda Goossen
Engr 323
Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59
Page 3 of 3
c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested? Extra
gas? Premium gas?
P(A1B) is found using the definition of conditional probability.
P( A1 B ) P( B A1 ) P( B | A1 ) P( A1 ) (0.30)(0.40)
=
=
=
= 0.264
0.455
P( B)
P( B)
P( B)
P( A2 B) P( B A2 ) P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) (0.60)(0.35)
=
=
=
= 0.461
P( A2 | B ) =
0.455
P( B)
P ( B)
P( B)
P( A3 B) P( B A3 ) P( B | A3 ) P( A3 ) (0.50)(0.25)
=
=
=
= 0.275
P( A3 | B) =
0.455
P( B)
P( B )
P( B)
P( A1 | B) =