1.

At a certain gas station, 40% of the customers use regular unleaded gas ( A1 ), 35% use extra
unleadedgas( A2 ),and25%usepremiumunleadedgas( A3 ).Ofthosecustomersusingregulargas,
only30%filltheirtanks(eventB).Ofthosecustomersusingextragas,60%filltheirtanks,whereas
ofthoseusingpremium,50%filltheirtanks.
a. Whatistheprobabilitythatthenextcustomerwillrequestextraunleadedgasandfillthe
tank?
b. Whatistheprobabilitythatthenextcustomerfillsthetank?
c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested?
Extragas?Premiumgas?
ANSWER:
P ( A1 ) = .40, P ( A2 ) = .35, P ( A3 ) = .25

P(B|A1)=0.3

P(B|A2)=0.6

P(B|A3)=0.5

Therefore,
P ( A1 B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B1A1 ) = (.40 )(.30 ) = .12

P ( A2 B ) = P ( A2 ) P ( B1A2 ) = (.35)(.60 ) = .21

P ( A3 B ) = P ( A3 ) P ( B1A3 ) = (.25)(.50 ) = .125

a. ( A2 B ) =.21
b. P(B)= P( A1 B) + P ( A2 B) +P ( A3 B ) = .12+.21+.125=.455
c. P( P( A1 |B) =

P( A1 B) .12
=
= .264
P( B)
.455

P ( A2 |B ) =

P ( A2 B ) .21
=
= .462
P( B)
.455

P ( A3 |B ) =

P ( A3 B ) .125
=
== .275
P( B)
.455

2. Thenumberofticketsissuedbyameterreaderforparkingmeterviolationscanbemodeledbya
Poissonprocesswitharateparameteroffiveperhour.
a. Whatistheprobabilitythatexactlythreeticketsaregivenoutduringaparticularhour?
b. Whatistheprobabilitythatatleastthreeticketsaregivenoutduringaparticularhour?
c. Howmanyticketsdoyouexpecttobegivenduringa45minperiod?
ANSWER:
a. P( X = 3) = F (3;5) F (2;5) = .265 .125 = .140
b. P( X 3) = 1 P( X 2) = 1 F (2;5) = 1 .125 = .875
c.Ticketsaregivenattherateof5perhour,sofora45minuteperiodtherateis
= (5)(.75) = 3.75, whichisalsotheexpectednumberofticketsina45minuteperiod.
3. Anaircraftcanseat220passengers,andeachofthepassengersbookedontheflighthasa
probabilityof0.9ofactuallyarrivingatthegatetoboardtheplane,independentoftheother
passengers.
a. Supposetheairlinebooks235passengersontheflight.Whatistheprobabilitythatthere
willbeinsufficientseatstoaccommodateallofthepassengerswhowishtoboardthe
plane?
b. Iftheairlinewantstobe75%confidentthattherewillbenomorethan220passengerswho
wishtoboardtheplane,howmanypassengerscanbebookedontheflight?

4. Incommutingtoschool,Imustfirstgetonabusnearmyhouseandthentransfertoasecondbus.If
thewaitingtime(inminutes)ateachstophasauniformdistributionwithA=0andB=5,thenitcan
beshownthatmytotalwaitingtimeYhasthepdf

1
0 y<5
25 y
2 1

f ( y) =
y 5 y 10
5
25

0
y < 0 or y > 10

a) SketchagraphofthepdfofY

b) Verifythat

f ( y )dy = 1

c) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeisatmost3minutes?
d) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeisbetween3and8minutes?
e) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeiseitherlessthan2minutesormorethan
6minutes?
a.

0.5

0.4

f(x)

0.3
0.2

0.1

0.0
0

10

b.

f ( y )dy =

1
0 25

10

ydy + (
5

2
5

1
25

1
1 1 1
+ (4 2) ( 2 ) = + = 1
2
2 2 2
5

9
y2
c. P(Y3)= ydy =
.18
=
50 0 50
46 9 37
d. P(3Y8)=P(Y8)P(Y<3)=

=
= .74
50 50 50
2 1
10 2
1
2
ydy +
y dy = = 0.4
e. P(Y<2orY>6)=
0 25
6
5
5 25
3

1
0 25

5. ConsiderthepdffortotalwaitingtimeYfortwobuses

1
0 y<5
25 y
2 1
f ( y) =
y 5 y 10

5 25
0
y < 0 or y > 10

a) ComputeandsketchthecdfofY
b) ComputeE(Y)andVar(Y)

10

1 2
y2 2
y )dy = + y
y
50 0 5
50 5

a.

For0y5,F(y)=

For5y10,F(y)=

1
y2
udu =

25
50

f (u )du = f (u )du + f (u )du

0

y 2
1
2
u
y2
+ du = y
1
2 5 5 25
5
50

F(x1)

1.0

0.5

0.0
0

10

x1

b. E(Y)=5bystraightforwardintegration(orbysymmetryoff(y)),and
V(Y)=

50
= 4.1667 .
12

6. LetXdenotethenumberofSonydigitalcamerassoldduringaparticularweekbyacertainstore.
ThepmfofXis
x
0
1
2
3
4
P(X=x)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.25

0.15

Sixtypercentofallcustomerswhopurchasethesecamerasalsobuyanextendedwarranty.LetY
denotethenumberofpurchasersduringthisweekwhobuyanextendedwarranty.
a)
b)
c)
d)

WhatisthevalueofP(X=4,Y=2)?
CalculateP(X=Y)
DeterminethejointpmfofXandY
DeterminethemarginalpmfofY

a.

4 2

(.6) (.4) 2 (.15) = .0518

2

p(4,2)=P(Y=2|X=4)P(X=4)=

b. P(X=Y)=p(0,0)+p(1,1)+p(2,2)+p(3,3)+p(4,4)=.1+(.2)(.6)+(.3)(.6)2+(.25)(.6)3+(.15)(.6)4=.4014

c.

p(x,y)=0unlessy=0,1,,x;x=0,1,2,3,4.Foranysuchpair,

x
y

p(x,y)=P(Y=y|X=x)P(X=x)= (.6) (.4)

y

x y

p x ( x)

d. py(4)=p(y=4)=p(x=4,y=4)=p(4,4)=(.6)4(.15)=.0194

4
3

py(3)=p(3,3)+p(4,3)= (.6) (.25) + (.6) (.4)(.15) = .1058

3

3
2

py(2)=p(2,2)+p(3,2)+p(4,2)= (.6) (.3) + (.6) (.4)(.25)

2

4
+ (.6) 2 (.4) 2 (.15) = .2678
2

2
1

py(1)=p(1,1)+p(2,1)+p(3,1)+p(4,1)= (.6)(.2) + (.6)(.4)(.3)

3
4
(.6)(.4) 2 (.25) + (.6)(.4) 3 (.15) = .3590
1
1

py(0)=1[.3590+.2678+.1058+.0194]=.2480

7. SomchaiandSomyinghaveagreedtomeetbetween5:00PMand6:00PMfordinneratalocal
healthfoodrestaurant.LetXbeSomchaisarrivaltimeandYbeSomyingsarrivaltime.SupposeX
andYareindependentwitheachuniformlydistributedontheinterval[5,6].
a) WhatisthejointpdfofXandY?
b) Whatistheprobabilitythattheybotharrivebetween5:15and5:45PM?
c) Ifthefirstonetoarrivewillwaitonly10minutesbeforeleavingtoeatelsewhere,whatis
theprobabilitythattheyhavedinneratthehealthfoodrestaurant?

a.

1 5 x 6,5 y 6

otherwise
0

f(x,y)=

sincefx(x)=1,fy(y)=1for5x6,5y6

b. P(5.25X5.75,5.25Y5.75)=P(5.25X5.75)P(5.25Y5.75)=(byindependence)(.5)(.5)
=.25
c.

I
y = x 1/ 6

y = x +1/ 6

II

P((X,Y)A)=

1dxdy
A

=areaofA=1(areaofI+areaofII)

= 1

25 11
=
= .306
36 36

8. Anutcompanymarketscansofdeluxemixednutscontainingalmonds,cashews,andpeanuts.
Supposethenetweightofeachcanisexactly1lb.,buttheweightcontributionofeachtypeofnutis
random.Becausethethreeweighssumto1,ajointprobabilitymodelforanytwogivesallnecessary
informationabouttheweightofthethirdtype.Letthejointpdffor(X,Y)be

24 xy 0 x 1, 0 y 1, x + y 1

f X ,Y ( x, y ) =
otherwise
0

AreXandYcorrelated?Ifnot,whatsthecorrelationcoefficientofXandY?
Cov(X,Y)=
E(X2)=

2
2
and x = y = .
75
5

f x ( x)dx

= 12 x 3 (1 x 2 dx ) =
0

12 1
= ,
60 5

1 4
1

=
5 25 25
1
,
Similarly,Var(Y)=
25
so Var (X) =

so X ,Y =

2
1
25

75

1
25

50
= .667
75