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Name: Amanda Rutledge

Election Prediction Sheet


Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction


Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton (Dem)

Donald Trump (Rep)

Gary Johnson (Lib)

Popular Vote Count

1, 799.616

1, 574, 664

149,968

Pop. Vote %

48

42

Congressional Election Predictions


Copy and paste as many tables as you need

State, District

CO, 2

Candidate (Party)

Nicholas Morse (R)

Jared Polis (D)

Popular Vote %

42

55

Popular Vote
Count

192961

252687

State, District CO, 6


Candidate (Party)

Mike Coffman (R)

Morgan Carroll (D)

Popular Vote %

49

50

Popular Vote
Count

227252

231889

State, District CO, 3


Candidate (Party)

Scott Tipton (R)

Gail Schwartz (D)

Popular Vote %

52

48

Popular Vote
Count

227562

210057

Period: 3

Introduction
The Crystal Ball Project requires students to predict the congressional and presidential outcomes for the
upcoming election. Each student received five or six districts to analyze and follow for a series of weeks. The
analysis to follow details Colorados districts 2-7. Colorado has been a swing state at the beginning of this
election, but after tracking polls, it can be predicted that Clinton will statewide, with district wins in all but 3 and
4. For the congressional election, similar trends will follow, as all districts but 6 are considered safe. To approach
the task of predicting the outcomes, one can look at demographics for each district, as well as past elections.
There is an overwhelming population of whites in Colorado, but some districts, like 3, have a higher percentage of
rural population. Using the trends that white and more rural voters vote more conservatively, but that minority and
more urban voters shift liberally, overall, Clinton will win the state of Colorado.
Demographic Factors
In Colorado, voter age and district urbanization percentages will influence voting in the presidential
election. In terms of age, older generations are more likely to vote, as they have more of a desire to hold onto
cherished possessions and obtain a sense of security. Colorados District 2 is of one the more liberal districts.
Although roughly 27 percent of the district is between the ages of 45 and 64, an additional 23 percent is between
20 and 34 (My Congressional District). While older generations have a higher participation rate and a higher party
loyalty, political preferences helps to reconcile this discontinuity. For the ages 18-29, 60 percent of responders say
that they support Clinton, compared to 30 that support Trump (Voter general election preferences). This is
significantly larger that the margin for ages 65+, where Trump edges out Clinton 49-46 (Voter general election
preferences). While District 3 also has roughly 27 percent of citizens aged 45 to 64, only 19 percent of the
population falls under the 20-34 range (My Congressional District). As a result, this district will vote more
conservatively than District 2 in the upcoming election.
Another factor that will influence voting is the urbanization percentages. More urban places will vote
more liberally than rural places and hold more traditional Democratic Party ideologies (Kron). In District 2,
roughly 17 percent of the population is rural (My Congressional District). To compare, District 3s percentage is a
little over 34 percent (My Congressional District). In the upcoming election, it can be predicted that District 2 will

lean Democrat while District 3 will lean Republican. For the congressional rate, a similar trend can be expected,
with District 3 voting conservatively and District 2 voting liberally. This can be seen in previous elections, where
District 2, in 2012, where Obama topped Romney in percentages by 18 percent (My Congressional District). To
contrast, in District 3, Romney edged out Obama 52 to 46 (My Congressional District).
Demographic Differences and Voting Patterns
Between Districts 2 and 3, the most significant demographic difference is age percentages. As described
above, District 2 has a significant population of older adults, and at the same time, a significant population of
young adults. This combination of older and younger voters produces a more moderate lean. As a result, in the
upcoming election, District 2 will most likely support Democratic nominees; Clinton and Polis. To contrast,
District 3 does not have a large population of young adults, but a similar population of older adults. This produces
a more conservative lean, as older generations vote more that younger, a rationale for the prediction that Tipton
and Trump will gain a slight victory in the election.
Key Issues
Presidential voting in colorado will be influenced by the issues of trade relations and national security. In
some districts, like District 3 and 4, benefits of open trade agreements and a free market would impact voting
strategies. In District 3, 28 percent of workers have only completed high school (My Congressional District). This
would make it probable that many of the workers in this district are skilled laborers, and ones that would prefer
Republican Party nominee Scott Tipton, whose platform is that we can get government out of the way of the
private sector and give businesses room (Economy and Jobs). Voters who vote conservatively by district in turn
will be more likely to vote conservatively in the presidential election. Another issue that will impact the election is
national security. In District 2, Democratic nominee Jared Polis has a liberal opinion on how the government
should involve itself with national security, stating Jared views foreign policy as an effective tool for promoting
global human rights (Foreign Policy). Since Polis is predicted to win this election, and running as an incumbent,
it can be predicted that District 2 leans Democratically, and will vote Democratically in the upcoming presidential
and congressional elections.

Voter Turnout and Election Results


For two minority demographic groups, voter turnout has changed drastically over the last few presidential
elections. For African American voters, voter turnout rate for the 2004 election was roughly 36 percent (Table
4b). In 2012, the voter turnout percentage reached up to 62%, a rate almost double rate rate less than ten years
earlier (Table 4b). Voter participation in college aged students (ages 18-24) has also increased in Colorado. In the
2004 election, voter participation was at 44 percent (Table 4c). A few years later, in 2012, the rate was up to 56
percent (Table 4c). While this jump is less drastic than the change in African American voters, it still a change
that impacts outcomes of the elections. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, the Republican candidate, Bush, pulled
ahead from each Democratic candidate (Official General Election Results). However, in 2008 and 2012, after
voter turnout increased for the demographics described above, Obama was able to claim the victory (2012
Election Results). This is a logical change, as according to Pew Research Center, African American voters and
voters ages 18-64 typically vote more liberally than white voters or those of older generations. If these trends
continue, Clinton will win Colorados electors for this election. If more liberal demographic groups participate in
elections, the more liberal candidate, in this case Clinton, will be the one with more support.
How the presidential election will affect the congressional elections
In Colorado, presidential elections and congressional elections will follow similar trends. Districts with
larger conservative populations will lean towards the Republican party and Districts with larger liberal
populations will lean towards the Democratic Party. District 6; however, is unique. Out of the six districts I was
assigned, District 6 is the only swing or up for grabs position, a race between Republican incumbent Mike
Coffman and Democrat Morgan Carroll (Colorado's 6th Congressional District election). Even though it is a close
race in regards to the congressional aspect, Clinton will pull ahead in the presidential election. Both candidates are
not fond of Trump, and Coffman is quoted to have said Honestly, I dont care for him much (Hutchins). Even
though voters in District 6 may support traditional Republican party platforms, in this election, dislike of Trump
will enable Clinton to win. Relating back to the presidential election, Carroll may be able to use Carrolls party
connection to her advantage, and has tried to tie Coffman to Trump (Hutchins). If voters begin to associate

Coffman with a political figure disliked by the district, Carroll will be able to gain the position, but only by a
small margin.
Conclusion
The current election process has been one that has defied many previous expectations. Many districts
considered at risk are now safely Democrat, because of the backlash against Trump that had emerged from even
conservative politicians. For Colorado specifically, 538 has shifted its predicted percentages from 45-44 Clinton
to 48-42 Clinton (Who will win). A state considered as a swing has now an 81.3 percent change of Clinton victory
(Who will win). Nevertheless, there are some predictions that still can be applied in future elections. In Colorado
District 6, the redesigning of district borders has increased the liberal and minority populations, making it more
likely that this district will trend Democratically in the future. As well, statewide, there has been a trend of more
African American and younger voters. These demographic groups vote as a whole more liberally, and with their
influence, it has been seen in recent years that Colorado is slowly becoming a more liberal state, a pattern that can
be predicted to continue in future elections.

Works Cited:
2012 Election Results.: Federal Elections Commission, 2012. PDF.
"Colorado's 6th Congressional District Election, 2016." Ballotpedia. Ballotpedia, 2016. Web. 01 Nov.
2016.
"Economy and Jobs." Scott Tipton US Representative for the 3rd District of Colorado. Scott Tipton, n.d.
Web. 01 Nov. 2016.
Fingerhut, Hannah. "Voter General Election Preferences." Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center,
07 July 2016. Web. 01 Nov. 2016.

"Foreign Policy & Defense." Congressman Jared Polis, 2nd District of Colorado. Jared Polis, Web.
01 Nov. 2016.
Hutchins, Corey. "Colorado's 6th District Race." The Colorado Independent. Colorado Independant, 07
Sept. 2016. Web. 01 Nov. 2016.
Kron, Josh. "Red State, Blue City: How the Urban-Rural Divide Is Splitting America." The Atlantic.
Atlantic Media Company, 30 Nov. 2012. Web. 01 Nov. 2016.
"My Congressional District." United States Census Bureau. US Department of Commerce, n.d. Web. 01
Nov. 2016.
Official General Election Results for United States President: Federal Elections Commission, 2 Nov.
2004. PDF.
Table 4b: Reported Voting and Registration of the Total Voting-Age Population, by Age, for States. Nov. 2004.
Spreadsheet.
Table 4c: Reported Voting and Registration of the Total Voting-Age Population, by Age, for States. Nov. 2012.
Spreadsheet.
"Who Will Win Chicago." FiveThirtyEight. ESPN, 30 Oct. 2016. Web. 01 Nov. 2016.