STAT 134 Concepts of Probability

Homework 1 Solutions
Exercise 1.1.3(d)
a) The number of outcomes in which the first ticket is number 1 and the second ticket is
number 2 is
#(first=1,second=2) = 1.
The total number of outcomes is
#(total) = n(n 1).
Therefore the probability is
P (first=1, second=2) =

1
#(first=1,second=2)
=
.
#(total)
n(n 1)

b) The event that the first number drawn is one less than the second number has the following
possible outcomes:
(1, 2), (2, 3), ..., (n 1, n).
Thus
#(first=second 1) = n 1.
And so
P (first=second 1) =

#(first=second 1)
n1
1
=
= .
#(total)
n(n 1)
n

c) The event that the second number drawn is bigger than the first number correponds to
the following subsets of :
(1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4)
(2, 3) (2, 4)
..
.

(1, n 1)
(2, n 1)

(1, n)
(2, n)
..
.

(n 2, n 1) (n 2, n)
(n 1, n)
Thus
#(second > first) = (n 1) + (n 2) + + 2 + 1 =
And so
P (second > first) =

(n 1)n
.
2

#(second > first)

(n 1)n
1
=
= .
#(total)
2n(n 1)
2

Exercise 1.1.6
a) The total number of outcomes is
#(total) = 52 52.

b) The number of outcomes that the first card is an ace is

#(first card is an ace) = 4 52.
This gives
P (first card is an ace) =

#(first card is an ace)

4 52
1
=
= .
#(total)
52 52
13

c)
Method 1: by a symmetry argument
By symmetry, the probability that the first card is an ace is equal to the probability that
the second card is an ace. Therefore
P (second card is an ace) = P (first card is an ace) =

1
.
13

Method 2: by counting
The number of outcomes that the second card is an ace is
#(second card is an ace) = 52 4.
This gives
P (second card is an ace) =

52 4
1
#(second card is an ace)
=
= .
#(total)
52 52
13

d) The number of outcomes that the both cards are aces is

#(both cards are aces) = 4 4.
Therefore
P (both cards are aces) =

#(both cards are aces)

44
1
=
= 2.
#(total)
52 52
13

e) The number of outcomes that neither cards are aces is

#(neither cards are aces) = (52 4) (52 4) = 482 .
Then the corresponding probability is
#(neither cards are aces)
482
12
P (neither cards are aces) =
= 2 = ( )2 .
#(total)
52
13
Since P (neither cards are aces) + P (at least one of the cards is ace) = 1 we have
P (at least one of the cards is ace) = 1 (

12 2
).
13

Exercise 1.1.8
a) There are 2 2 = 4 possible outcomes of the event that the the maximum of the two
numbers is less than or equal to 2:
(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (2, 2)
The total number of all outcomes is n n = n2 , therefore
P (maximum2) =

#(maximum2)
4
= 2.
#(total)
n

b) Similarly #(maximum3)= 3 3 = 9 and so

P (maximum3) =

9
#(maximum3)
= 2.
#(total)
n

c) The event that the maximum of the two numbers is exactly equal to 3 has the following
outcomes:
(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3)
Therefore
P (maximum=3) =

5
#(maximum=3)
= 2.
#(total)
n

d) Similarly for each x from 1 to n:

P (maximum x) =

P (maximum= x) =

#(maximum x)
x2
= 2.
#(total)
n

x1+x1+1
2x 1
#(maximum= x)
=
=
.
2
#(total)
n
n2

e) The sum P (1) + + P (n) should equal to 1 since the maximum of the two numbers
rolled has only possible values ranging from 1 to n. To verify this:
P (1) + + P (n) =

1 + 3 + + 2x 1 + + 2n 1
n2
=
=1
n2
n2

Exercise 1.2.2
Denote by p the probability that the horse will win. Then the chance odds are 1/p 1 and
the payoff odds are 99 to 1. Since this is an unfair game in favor of the bookmaker, the
chance odds should be strictly greater than the payoff odds. Thus 1/p 1 > 99 and so
p < 1/100.
Review problem 19
a) with replacement
For simplicity, we can consider the event that the two tickets differ by one or less, which,
has the following possible outcomes:

(1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), (4, 5)

(2, 1), (3, 2), (4, 3), (5, 4)
(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5)
Thus
#(two tickets differ by one or less)
#(total)
4+4+5
13
=
= .
2
5
25

P (two tickets differ by one or less) =

And so
P (two tickets differ by two or more) =1 P (two tickets differ by one or less)
13
12
=1
= .
25
25
b) without replacement
The event that the two tickets differ by one or less has the following possible outcomes:
(1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), (4, 5)
(2, 1), (3, 2), (4, 3), (5, 4)
Thus
#(two tickets differ by one or less)
#(total)
2
4+4
= .
=
54
5

P (two tickets differ by one or less) =

And so
P (two tickets differ by two or more) =1 P (two tickets differ by one or less)
2
3
=1 = .
5
5
Now consider the more general case where we have n tickets numbered 1, 2, , n (n 2):
a) with replacement
The event that the two tickets differ by one or less has the following possible outcomes:
(1, 2), (2, 3), ..., (n 1, n)
(2, 1), (3, 2), ..., (n, n 1)
(1, 1), (2, 2), ..., (n, n)
Thus
#(two tickets differ by one or less)
#(total)
(n 1) + (n 1) + n
3n 2
=
=
.
2
n
n2

P (two tickets differ by one or less) =

And so
P (two tickets differ by two or more) =1 P (two tickets differ by one or less)
3n 2
=1
.
n2
b) without replacement
The event that the two tickets differ by one or less has the following possible outcomes:
(1, 2), (2, 3), ..., (n 1, n)
(2, 1), (3, 2), ..., (n, n 1)
Thus
#(two tickets differ by one or less)
#(total)
(n 1) + (n 1)
2
=
= .
n(n 1)
n

P (two tickets differ by one or less) =

And so
P (two tickets differ by two or more) =1 P (two tickets differ by one or less)
2
=1 .
n