(De)constructing Risk

A Domestic Image of the Future

Helene Kazan

Strategies to produce an image of the worst-case scenario, also understood

as the analysis of risk, are adopted under a wide range of circumstances
and create a complex reality fabricated by algorithms, hopes, fears, conflicting philosophies, and historical precedents. Expert methods of calculating risk are employed across the industry of risk analysis, aimed at
producing the best possible forecast in order to sell a calculable danger
to clientele. The domestic spacethe home or the houseoperates as a
platform that forms a relationship between expert perceptions of risk,
observed for example in the financing and insuring of houses within the
real estate market, and risk that is felt as a tangible, bodily threat, experienced within the home. This simultaneous articulation of riskabstract
and affectivebreeds a tension, which I argue is articulated and registered in the architecture of the home itself as it induces alienation, distrust, and [] heightened risk perception in those who are excluded from
the magic preserves of its technical expertise.1
My research reads this tension through two images of the domestic space
that depict the future in Lebanon. One is an image of destroyed homes
from a risk assessment report predicting the next war between Israel and
Hezbollah, and the second is a life-size architectural visualisation showing a luxury apartment block still to be built in Beirut, which is currently
visible on the hoardings that envelop its construction site. These images
are connected on a semiotic axis, as both are speculative; one is an image
of future destruction, whilst the other is an image of perceived opportunity. Although both are uncertain, both have come to effect the realisation
of each other, as one, or the other, becomes seemingly more concrete. In
their uncertainty, both images require the viewer to not only observe and

Figure 1 (facing page): Image from Dream Ramlet, a construction project situated near the
ocean front Corniche, in Beirut, depicting one of the visualisations onsite, 2014. Image
courtesy of the author.

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Figure 2: Port Beirut, Lebanon. Jibrail Jabbur, 1930. Collection of Norma Jabbur. Image
courtesy of the Arab Image Foundation.

(De)constructing Risk

believe in the future they depict, but go so far as to ask their audience
to invest in and gamble on it. By this process, the images represent two
different potential futures, and act as modes of production that colonise
the future, producing a form of reality that is both felt in and affects the
present situation. In exposing the contradictions operating between these
two images of the perceived imminent or non-existent future threat within
this specific context, I explore the ways in which the unequal distribution
of risk contributes to the construction or deconstruction of the home as a
site of security. Ultimately, the aim is to better understand the effects of
this transformative condition as it impacts directly upon human subjects
within the home.

COLONISING THE FUTURE

A culture that thinks of the future is considered to be a more developed
culture.2 Indeed, planning for the future may be one of the key characterisations of the modern subject. By understanding the value of resources and the subsequent necessity of saving, a system of accumulation
develops. Through this accumulation, trade, finance, and insurance also
arise to safeguard valuable resources from the risk of loss. Oscar Guardiola-Rivera takes this reasoning a step further, positing that through this
process, a colonisation of the future takes place. Referencing the narrative
of Columbuss journey south,3 he recounts the colonial perception at that
time in the differentiation between
two sorts of people, those who are responsible, who toil the earth and
save what they obtain [] thereby creating a future horizon [] by
reframing themselves in the present they secure their own future.
Conversely there is another sort of people, the people of the earth
that do not save, who do not toil the earth, who consume just what
they obtain. Because you do not learn to accumulate, you do not
develop a sense of the future. Therefore others have the moral duty
to assist you, to help you, to civilise you.4

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Through this narrative, Guardiola-Rivera proposes that colonising the future is a mobilising feature of modernity. To think of the future is to be
a more developed culture, but what does this statement imply? Claudia
Aradau and Rens van Munster further argue that what takes place as a
result of this colonisation is a radical disruption of the present.5 In these
terms, and with a moral duty to civilise, the radical disruption to the
present can take on a multitude of violent acts and registers as a way of
securing the future through a present governing action.
Capitalism as an economic system that thrives off radical uncertainty is exactly such a practice of disruption.6 Financial systems break with the notion
of temporal linearity through processes of trade, accumulation, and risk assessment and management. These processes engender a colonisation of the
future through the development of credit and insurance.7 Franois Ewald
identifies the conceptualisation of insurance as part of a capitalist drive,8
as a present, actionable technology calculating and feigning control over
potential risk.9 Evoking the predictably volatile nature of sea navigation,
risk and insurance were born on this shifting strata where sea meets land.
Risk did not refer then as it does now to an exchangeable, immaterial fear
of potential catastrophe, but was rather a material, financial instrument that
dealt with the predictably volatile nature of trade across the sea.10
Lebanonand in particular Beiruthas a long-standing history with the
development of the financial processes of risk assessment and management from the proclamation of the Port of Beirut as its capital. Unlike the
previous capital of Mount Lebanon, the port enabled new economic prosperity through silk trade.11 Through the economic growth granted from
this trade across the sea, insurance became a compulsory measure; by this
process the financial district grew, immediately placing Beirut within a
global economic community. Prior to the beginning of the civil war, Beirut was the purported banking capital of the Arab world, as a result of the
numerous financial institutions based and developed there.12
In referring to the assessment of risk within the Lebanese context, I intend to establish the relationship between the notion of managing risk

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within its developed financial and insurance markets, and the analysis of
potential risk that comes from its geopolitical positioning. These multiple
observations of risk in the Lebanese context are not autonomous, but feed
into each other in ways that are registered, for example, by the real estate
market. To insure against a potential risk, an image of the possible worstcase scenario is created to enable a level of preparedness. This is often
done by calculating a future based on archival and statistical knowledge
of the past.13 But what are the implications of reading the past as a way of
writing, or shaping a potential future?

THE NEXT ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR?

What the War Will Look Like is the provocative title of a chapter in a risk
assessment report that imagined the possibility of an imminent IsraelHezbollah war in Lebanon. Written in 2010, the report forecasts the likelihood of another conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that year, following the war in 2006, by predicting the perfect storm of conditions that
would bring the cease-fire in place to an end. The front cover of the report
uses an image taken during the 2006 conflict that depicts the destruction
of a block of apartments in Beirut following an air strike by Israel.
In placing the image of the destroyed homes alongside the reports title, The Next Israel-Hezbollah War?, the report re-activates this depiction of
the past as a potential future, or as the proposed future, as the report
would have it. Further, the written forecast in the section of the report
titled Past Wars describes the conditions and triggers that started the
six previous conflicts; it subsequently analyses these as a precedent for
re-mapping this past as a potential future.
The image on the front cover of the report is a vital example of a visual
technique applied in trying to communicate a forecast of the future. In
this case the image of destroyed homes adds a new dynamic as it operates
and communicates in excess of the written calculations, going beyond the
logic of calculus, and presenting itself as a truth claim.14 Askingwhile it

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Figure 3: Image from Dream Ramlet, a construction project situated near the ocean front
Corniche, in Beirut, depicting one of the visualisations onsite, 2014. Image courtesy of the
author.

(De)constructing Risk

Figure 4: Image taken during the 2006 conflict in Lebanon, featured on the front cover of a
report forecasting The Next Israel Hezbollah War written in 2010.

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Figure 5: Image courtesy of Elie Kazan, Lebanon, 1989.

(De)constructing Risk

is increasingly evident that in order to imagine the future, one needs to

generate images of what that future might look liketo what extent does
the visualisation of a risk that comes from an unknown future transform
the ways in which life in the present unfolds?
Produced by Exclusive Analysis, an independent risk analysis company,
that is now part of the global corporation IHS (Information Handling
Services), the report claims, among other things, to:
deliver accurate, decision-ready forecasts to a broad range of sectors which include insurance and reinsurance, financial services,
shipping, banking, oil and gas, aviation, mining, cargo and logistics, governments, NGOs and media.15
Presented as fact, the report renders future events knowable and actionable, forecasting an image of the worst-case scenario to enable a wellprepared audience or clientele to act appropriately. Their statement goes
on to say:
Our team is made up of regional, thematic and technical experts
from around the world who are motivated by a common goalproducing the best forecasts. We are objective, independent forecasters, and we are committed to precision, accuracy and innovation.16
In hindsight this report could be regarded as a well-orchestrated and expensive piece of fiction, as there was no war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2010 or 2011. However, it can be viewed as an ongoing potentiality,
as can be observed in the quick escalation of reported events that took
place on the border of Lebanon and Israel at the beginning of 2015.17 The
published report acts as a crystallised image of the worst-case scenario;
although it was written in the past and forecasts a future that didnt take
place, it inscribes itself into the moment in which it was produced and
projects an image of future ruin. The necessity of its veracity becomes
less important as the larger-scale dissemination of its content shapes the
milieu to which it is applied. In predicting an image of the future, there is

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always the risk that it will not materialise, but can the very act of producing the image influence the likelihood of that projected eventuality?

AN INDUSTRY OF RISK
IHS was founded in 1959 as the Rogers Publishing Company,18 a publisher
of technical news magazines, which indexed product catalogs on microfilm. It has since gained widespread expertise in technologies of information handling, which is how it developed a global reputation as a specialist intelligence company.
One of its acquisitions was Janes Information Group, named after Fred T.
Jane. Janes Information Group is widely known for publishing Janes Intelligence Reviewfirst published in 1989 as Janes Soviet Intelligence Reviewa
monthly journal on global security and stability issues. Included in its first
issue were articles on the Soviet Air Defense system and Soviet Forces in
Germany. Among the first subscribers of Janes Soviet Intelligence Review was
Dan Quayle, the standing vice president of the United States. In 1991, in
response to the breakup of the Warsaw Pact, the magazine changed its title
to Janes Intelligence Review to broaden its global information horizons. Today
Janes 360 can be accessed as a resource for international security issues, state
stability, terrorism and insurgency, ongoing conflicts, organised crime, and
weapons proliferation.19 In acquiring both Exclusive Analysis and Janes
Information Group, amongst many others, IHS quickly became a global
intelligence corporation with a monopoly in the power of influence.
Although the 2010 report The Next Israel-Hezbollah War? can now be considered fictitious, the consultants and risk assessors that helped produce it are
now well-known experts on current and future events taking place in Lebanon and other part of the Middle East. Their predictions of the future in Lebanon continue to influence and be published in media across the globe. Such
analysis produces a never-ending image of potential destruction; whether
true or false, this image contributes to the creation of a condition that has
real effects on the ground, and can be very difficult to counteract.

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A HUMAN RIGHT TO SHELTER

The domestic spacethe home or the houseis the site where a complex
range of values converges; this set of values is rooted in the necessary function that the architecture of the home provides as a practical solution to
the human need for shelter from adverse conditions. Shelter is provided
by the architecture of the home as it forms a material layer, which in the
assessment of the potential strengths of that material, is that it should be
strong, durable, and able to withstand the adverse conditions or exterior
threat from which the human needs protection. By this process, the shelter
that the home provides is an essential human right. It is in part through this
role as protector that it gains value, becomes a home, and forms part of a set
of associated territorial boundaries that are valued and defended.
The right to land and the homes that are built upon such land was at the
core of the dispute that incited the civil war in Lebanon. In this way, the
home became part of a contested territory and a representative site of the
complex conflict that took place. Under a condition of heightened insecurity produced through armed conflict or natural disaster, the architecture
of the home undergoes a radical shift. As an occupant, the understanding
of its materiality changes as it becomes the site where a series of smallscale actions are undertaken in anticipation of an exterior threat. Examples include the taping of windows to prevent glass from shattering or the
reinforcing of exterior walls. Beyond their pragmatic functions, these acts
provide visual demarcations of the turbulent times and contexts within
which the homes in question are situated. In anticipation of risk, these
actions together design an environment in which the fear of the future
is continually being rehearsed. This relationship between temporality
(the future yet-to-come) and the space in which this future may yet occur
serves as a daily reminder of the potential sinister risks that lie-in-wait.20
The psychological fear of living with this potentiality therefore alters the
material components that constitute the domestic space. Within these
changed material conditions, what are the natural and political forces that
shape what can be made available as the shelter of the home?

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Figure 6: Sea View Residence situated on the ocean front Corniche in Beirut, 2014. This is
an image of one of the architectural visualisations that wraps the construction site. Image
courtesy of the author.

(De)constructing Risk

Figure 7: Image featured in article Building towers, destroying lives, BeirutReport.com,

2014. Image courtesy of Habib Battah.

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Figure 8: Sold as A true gateway to Modern Life, this project on Bliss Street in Beirut is an
image of the future as projected by A&H Construction & Development. The image, taken in
2014, shows the signage and architectural visualisations which wrap the construction site.
Image courtesy of the author.

(De)constructing Risk

AN IMAGE OF TRUE MODERNITY

The real estate market in Lebanon has consistently been regarded as its
most dynamic and reliable area of investment. Even in the current geopolitical climate, the market experiences growth, largely as a result of enticing foreign investment.21 This has encouraged a proliferation of luxury redevelopment projects to populate Beiruts urban landscape.22 Through an
assumed process of modernisation, the city creates demographic enclaves
that intend to accommodate this investment from a global economy.23
Across the luxury re-development projects, a visual strategy is employed
by the local construction industry to encourage investmentone that
depicts an idealised image of the future domestic life that will be experienced within these yet-to-be-built complexes. Life-size architectural visualisations adorn hoardings that wrap the construction sites and conceal the creative destruction that takes place onsite as it uncovers and
draws a visual relationship between the ruins of the past and construction for the future.24 These architectural visualisations are initially created for feasibility and planning reports, later migrating into lifestyle or
on-flight magazines, and then appearing as life-size images concealing
the construction sites of their own redevelopment projects. Through their
widespread public dissemination on the streets, they convert the material
of the private domestic arena into an endless flow of images, which in
turn reproduces Beiruts urban environment as a shimmering mirage of
a future that rehearses a modernity not necessarily accessible to those
that constantly encounter or live within its spectral view.25 The life-size
visualisations also hide the slow mode of violence in which these planned
images of development also partake.
An example that depicts this protracted means of violence can be seen
on Armenia Street in the area of Mar Mikhael in Beirut, where a resident
came home to find that the construction company working on a project
next door had mistakenly torn down the walls of her house. This house
was where her husband had lived since 1932, and where she herself has
lived since before the beginning of the civil war. In the time leading up to

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the destruction, she reports: I spent a month going up to my roof every

day at 8 a.m. warning them from getting too close.26 She goes onto say: if
bombs couldnt get me out, stones definitely wont.27
Today the house remains the same, and where the residential project was
to take place, now exists a valet car park connected to a local restaurant.
To the untrained eye this building could easily be perceived as a ruin left
bearing the effects of the civil war.

THE NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

On Wednesday 21 August 2013, Lebanon launched a National Strategy
for Disaster Risk Management, a first for the entire region.28 This action
headed by Nathalie Zaarour is intended to balance corrective, prospective
and compensatory action, and to strengthen risk governance as well as
the resilience of communities and critical infrastructure that is lacking.29
This strategy also reflects a regional shift in the perception of risk since
2013 through a growing awareness of how lack of infrastructurepartially as a result of geopolitical tension in the regioncan leave areas disproportionately vulnerable to effects of both armed conflict and natural
disaster. This change in perception can not only be read in the launch of
the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management in Lebanon, but also
across the region: the First Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
took place in March 2013, in Aqaba, Jordan,30 followed by a second conference in September 2014 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.31
However, the level of risk that was perceived in Lebanon in August 2013
when the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management was announced
could not have foreseen the events that would unfold the day the scheme
was launched. On the same day, accounts came flooding out of Syria concerning chemicals attacks affecting thousands of Syrian civilians. The use
of chemical weapons had already been established as a threshold, a red
line that once violated would evoke international intervention into the
Syrian conflict. As a result, the event would throw the whole region into

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a state of heightened insecurity.32 Once the use of chemical weapons was

undeniably proven, the immediate reaction from the US came as a threat
of a missile launch on Syria. Following this threat, a large number of
civilians fleeing Syria came across the border to Lebanon for safety. The
effects were immediately felt, and it is now estimated that a quarter of the
population in Lebanon are Syrian refugees. Without enough resources to
safely house such a large influx of people, their dispersal across the country has caused tension in many observable ways.

CONCLUSION
In concluding I wish to return to the two images of the domestic space that
depict the future in Lebanon: one an image of destroyed homes from a
risk assessment report predicting the next war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the other, a life-size architectural visualisation masking the
construction site of a still to be built luxury apartment block in Beirut.
These images are not autonomous, but are connected on a semiotic axis,
and contribute to a disruption of the present through the possible realisation of their future vision.

In the business of speculating risk or lack thereof, a relationship is formed

between the institution creating that image of an unknown future, and the
client or audience that then invests or gambles on it. In the formation of
this relationship, an exclusive contract is established, which aims to protect
those within its frame. For example, the risk assessment report and the client who commissioned it or paid for access to the information it holdsor
the luxury apartment in the gated development, constructed from financial
investment, both into the idyllic image of the future domestic life it portrays, and into the security and financial gain its materiality promises. The
problem comes in the establishment of this contract or frame: whilst the
dissemination of these images of the future comes to affect the present situation, there is a wider issue of access to the protection that they promise.33

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What takes place then is a hierarchy of the importance of human life:

those who are able to invest in their own future protection, and those who
are cast outside of the protective frame, left feeling the effects of what
is being imaged.34 As observed, there is a growing awareness in Lebanon
of how a lack of infrastructure can leave some disproportionately vulnerable to the outcomes of risk.35 One must ask how the effects of risk will
come to be distributed between those who can or cant afford to protect
themselves. In which case, what can come to be expected in the future as
the security of the home? The two images I have examined of the future
domestic space in Lebanon have the persuasive power to perform their
perceptions of the future. By analysing their view, it is possible to better
understand what influence they might have on the present situation as a
way of deterritorialising their colonisation of the future and engendering
wider access to a possible protective frame.

ENDNOTES
1.

Sheila Jasanoff, The political science of risk perception, Reliability Engineering and System
Safety, 59 (1998), 91-99.

2.

Claudia Aradau and Rens van Munster, The Time/Space of Preparedness: Anticipating the
Next Terrorist Attack, Space and Culture, 15.2 (2012), 98-109.

3.

Nicols Wey Gmez, The Tropics of Empire. Why Columbus Sailed South to the Indies (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008).

4.

Oscar Guardiola-Rivera, introductory presentation, The Devils Advocate Roundtable for

Forensic Architecture, Centre for Research Architecture, Goldsmiths University of London,
2013.

5.

Claudia Aradau and Rens van Munster, The Time/Space of Preparedness.

6.

Jonathan Levy, Freaks of Fortune: The Emerging World of Capitalism and Risk in America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012).

7.

Claudia Aradau and Rens van Munster, The Time/Space of Preparedness.

8.

Franois Ewald, Insurance and Risk, in The Foucault Effect: Studies in Governmentality, ed.
by Graham Burchell, Colin Gordon, and Peter Miller (London: Harvester and Wheatsheaf,
1991), pp. 197-210.

9.

Ulrich Beck also poses that insurance is a way of feign[ing] control over risk, but he argues that it will be the end of neoliberalism, as financial markets will not be able to deal
with the fallout of the incalculable risk. Ulrich Beck, The Terrorist Threat: World Risk Society Revisited, Theory, Culture & Society, 19.4 (2002), 39-55 (41). See also Claudia Aradau
and Rens van Munster, Taming the Future: The Dispositif of Risk in the War on Terror, in

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Risk and the War on Terror, ed. by Louise Amoore and Marieke de Goede (London: Routledge,
2008), pp. 23-40.
10.

Jonathan Levy, Freaks of Fortune.

11.

Fawwaz Traboulsi, History of Modern Lebanon (London: Pluto Press, 2007), p. 6. Traboulsi
argues that the city became the base for maritime and insurance companies, the latter
numbered twenty by the end of the twentieth century.

12.

Elie Ayache, The Blank Swan: The End of Probability (Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.,
2010).

13.

Claudia Aradau and Rens van Munster, The Time/Space of Preparedness.

14.

Ibid.

15.

The Next Israel-Hezbollah War? (London: Executive Analysis, 2010).

16.

Ibid.

17.

Report on tensions between Hezbollah and Israel by Lebanese English-language daily, The
Daily Star, February 2015.

18.

Our Expertise (London: Information Handling Services, 2015) <https://www.ihs.com/expertise/index.html> [accessed 16 May 2015].

19.

IHS Janes 360 <http://www.janes.com> [accessed 16 May 2015].

20.

Alexander Garca Dttmann. The Worst, or the Lesser of Two Evils, World Picture, 7 (2010).

21.

Thank You Expats, Cedar Wings Magazine for Middle Eastern Airlines (November 2013).
The article outlines the necessity of expat investment into Beiruts real estate market.

22.

Setting a precedent for a process of architectural modernisation, Solidere, founded in

1994 by former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was given the project of planning and redeveloping Beiruts Central District in 1990 following the end of the Lebanese Civil War. Unique
terms were negotiated in the reconstruction of the area enabling them to operate outside
of the law to certain extent, a practice visibly continued in some of the construction projects across Beirut today.

23.

Reference to a car bombing that took place in central Beirut in 2013, assassinating Mohammad Shatah, an adviser to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri. This attack took place
in the heart of the Solidere redevelopment and is significance to this research. Rami G.
Khouri, The meaning of the Shatah assassination, The Daily Star, 28 December 2013
<http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2013/Dec-28/242494-the-meaning-ofthe-shatah-assassination.ashx#axzz2otKKUfnx> [accessed 1 February 2015].

24.

There has been recent evidence that important archeological sites are being uncovered
by the construction projects. However, a lack of protection for these historic sites means
ancient remains are being removed and discarded, resulting in diminished evidence of the
historical relevance of the sites. This could complicate the progression of the construction projects; activists are encouraging people living in Beirut who have visual access to
the sites from flats surrounding to document the developments. See, for example, Ruins
discovered under Saifi 477, Beirut Report, 30 July 2014 <http://www.beirutreport.com/
category/culture-heritage/archeology-culture-heritage>.

25.

Beatriz Colomina, Domesticity at War, (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2007).

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26.

Hashem Osseiran, Homeowner returns to demolished bedroom, The Daily Star, 15 June
2014
<www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-15/260163-homeownerreturns-to-demolished-bedroom.ashx#axzz3AlqNI0ay> [accessed 1 February 2015].

27.

Ibid.

28.

Andy McElroy, Lebanon embarks on regional first with disaster risk plan (Geneva: The
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 21 August 2013) <http://www.unisdr.
org/archive/34432> [accessed 1 February 2015].

29.

Ibid.

30.

First Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Aqaba, Jordan, 19-21 March 2013
<http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/regional/platform/arabstates/2013/>
[accessed 1 February 2015].

31.

Second Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16
September 2014 <http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/regional/platform/acdrr/2014/> [accessed 1 February 2015].

32.

In a statement made in July 2013, US President Barack Obama stated that the use of
chemical warfare would be crossing a threshold. Syria to allow UN to inspect chemical
weapons site, BBC News, 25 August 2013 <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middleeast-23833912> [accessed 1 February 2015].

33.

I would question whether it is possible to criminalise the act of wrongful speculation, if

the speculation itself comes to have a damaging effect on the subject or territory it is
referring to. An example of this is the seismic risk assessors that did not assess the full
magnitude of the earthquake in the Italian town, LAquila. They were tried and convicted
for the wrongful speculation in 2012. Tom Kington, Italian scientist convicted over LAquila
earthquake condemns medieval court, The Guardian, 23 October 2012 <http://www.
theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/23/italian-scientist-earthquake-condemns-court> [accessed 1 February 2015].

34.

These ideas are rooted in the work of Judith Butler. In Frames of War, she writes about a
grievable life as a life of value, and the precarity of a life less valued. See Judith Butler,
Frames of War (London: Verso, 2009).

35.

Andy McElroy, Lebanon embarks on regional first with disaster risk plan.

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211