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Hang T. Nguyen
nh ngha ngnh
Hot ng chnh
23
Cc ngnh tng t
23
Mc tp trung ngnh
24
Yu t to thnh cng
25
C cu chi ph
26
Mc cnh tranh
28
Thng mi ton cu
22
a bn kinh doanh
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co
29
Cc yu t tc ng chnh
29
29
D bo ngnh
29
H tr ngnh
10
29
30
Ri ro ngnh
32
11
Sn phm v th trng
11
Chui gi tr
18
Sn phm v dch v
33
20
Yu t quyt nh nhu cu
33
Thng k ngnh
21
Th trng ch yu
34
36
Doanh nghip ln
36
Tn Hip Pht
37
Cp nht ngnh
nh ngha ngnh
Hot ng chnh
Sn phm ch yu ca ngnh
Nc khong ng chai
Nc tr xanh, c ph ung lin ng chai
Nc hoa qu p
Nc dinh dng, nc tng lc
Nc ngt c gas
Hot ng ch yu ca ngnh
Sn xut nc tri cy p
Sn xut cc loi nc tr xanh hng v thin nhin
Sn xut v chit lc cc loi nc ngt c gas
Nghin cu v sn xut cc loi nc cung cp dinh dng v
tng lc c th
Tinh lc v sn xut cc loi nc khong ng chai
Cc ngnh tng t
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
80.70 nghn t
VND
19.35%
14.20%
Sn lng bn ra
2,083.06 triu lt
42.25 triu lt
135
150
3000
25
2500
20
100
50
2000
15
1500
10
1000
500
5
0
T trng NGK c ga v
khng ga
Ngun: BMI
Ngun: BMI
Yu t tc ng chnh
Kh hu nng m ti Vit
Nam
Nc khong ng
chai
2.00%
Nc GK c gas
C cu dn s tr
40.63%
36.41%
Nc hoa qu
Caf ng chai
19.31%
Tr xanh ng chai
0.03%
Nc tng lc
1.63%
Ngun: BMI
Cu trc ngnh
Chu k sng
Bin ng doanh thu
Thp
Mc tp trung vn
TB Thp
H tr ngnh
Mc tp trung ngnh
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Pht trin
Thp
TB Cao
TB
cao
Thp
Ro cn gia nhp
Thp
Thng mi ton cu
Mc cnh tranh
TB
thp
TB
Cao
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
Tm tt bo co
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca
Cc yu t tc ng chnh
C cu dn s tr l i
tng chnh m ngnh
cng nghip nc gii
kht khng cn hng ti
C cu dn s tr
Vit Nam l mt t nc c c cu tui c Euromonitor nh gi
dn s tr. S ngi trong tui
l c nhu cu ln nht v nc gii
15-40 t gn 42% vo nm 2013, l kht khng cn ti Vit Nam.
Ngun: IMF
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
H Ni
Hu
TP H Ch Minh
Ngun: Moner
Dch v n nhanh t tc
tng trng 17% nm
2013.
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
Tc tng trng doanh thu n nh qua cc nm
3000
2500
25
150
20
2000
15
20
100
15
1500
10
1000
10
50
5
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
25
5
0
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
Ngun: BMI
Ngun: BMI
2017f
2016f
2015f
2014f
2012
2013e
2011
2010
2009
2008
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Tc tng trng
doanh thu
Nc tng lc
Tr xanh ng chai
Nc hoa qu
Ngun: Euromonitor
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
ny l v mc ch mun b sung
vitamin v mc ch p da thay v
nhng l do thng thng nh l tiu
dng do thi quen hay l c bn
rng ri trn th trng. Theo
Euromonitor, trung bnh, vo nm
2013, mt lon Pepsi hay Coca c gi
khong VND5,000 trong khi mt chai
nc tr xanh hoc nc p hoa
qu gi VND7,000. Tuy vy, v l do
v sc khe, ngi tiu dng Vit
Nam sn sng tr mt gi cao hn
s dng nc ung dinh dng
so vi nhng thc ung c ga khc.
S pht trin ca sn phm mi vi
li nhun cn bin cao khin
nhiu cng ty tham gia vo th
trng nh l tp on T&T vi nh
my sn xut nc collagen lm
p da vo cui nm 2013. S tham
gia ca nhng i th mi ny khin
th trng nc ung c s cnh
tranh cc k khc lit.
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
S tham gia ca cc tp
on nc ngoi cng
nh nhng thng v
M&A gn y cho thy
sc thu ht v tim nng
pht trin ca ngnh
100% vn nc ngoi.
V d in hnh l Coca Cola. Nm
2001, c s cho php ca chnh
ph VN, ba cng ty nc gii kht
Coca Cola ti ba min hp chung
li lm mt, v c s qun l chung
ca Coca-Cola Vit Nam, t tr s
ti Thnh ph H Ch Minh. Sau su
nm chnh thc kinh doanh ti Vit
M&A
Gn y, nhiu thng v M&A
din ra, khin cho th trng tr nn
si ng. Uni President mua hn
M&A ca cc cng ty ni a
Tp on Massan thm nhp vo th
trng nc gii kht thng qua
vic mua chi phi 50.3% c phn
Vinacafe vo nm 2011. Tip tc
tin su, nm 2013, Massan mua
thm 63.5% c phn nc khong
Vnh Ho.
Cc sn phm mi ra i
Cc sn phm mi lin
tc ra i, to ra nhng
phong cch mi trong
vic s dng nc gii
kht.
Khi c mt sn phm no mi ra
i, cc doanh nghip cng ngnh
s cng tham gia vo phn khc
v cho ra nhng sn phm tng
t. Nhng sn phm mi thng
hng n nhm khch hng ging
nhau, nn vic tham gia ca cc sn
phm tng t s khin khch hng
c li do cc doanh nghip khng
cnh tranh bng gi m bng cht
lng sn phm v dch v.
Tnh n ht 2013, theo
Vietinbanksc, c khong 15 nhn
hiu tr xanh ng chai nh Tr
xanh khng , C2, tr xanh 100 ,
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
D bo ngnh
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ngun: BMI
Cc sn phm mi tip tc ra i
Hin nay, s ra i ca nhiu loi
sn phm nh tr xanh ng chai,
c ph ng chai khin th trng
nc gii kht phong ph v a
dng hn. Xu hng ny tip tc gia
tng khi cc doanh nghip mi ang
n lc tm ra nhng sn phm mi
l hn na. Mt trong nhng v d
l trng hp ca tp on T&T
vi nh my ch bin nc
Collagen. Nhng sn phm u tin
ra i vo u thng 12/2013.
Tp on t mc tiu xut khu
sn phm v doanh s s t hn
1,000 t ng nm 2015. y l mt
hng mi Vit Nam, nu nh nm
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Sc hp dn ngnh
Tm tt bo co | Cc yu t tc ng chnh |Tnh hnh kinh doanh | D bo ngnh| Chu k sng ca ngnh
Chu k sng ca ngnh
25
Sosnhtc tngtrng
ngnhvnnkinht
80
70
60
20
50
40
15
30
10
20
10
0
-10
-20
Tng trng ngnh NGK
Tng trng GDP
Ch s cng nghip
Qua quy
Ngun: EuroMonitor
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
10
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Chui gi tr
U VO CHNH V NH CUNG CP
Nc khong
Theo Hip hi nc gii kht Vit
Nam, tnh n nm 2013, c nc
c ngun tr lng nc khong
ln vi 287 ngun. Trong , min
Ty Bc b 87 ngun, ng Bc B
c 14 ngun, ng Bng Bc B 17
ngun, Bc Trung B 22 ngun,
ng
Gi ng gim khin
cc doanh nghip tit
kim c chi ph. T
trng nguyn liu gim t
65% xung cn 56%.
ng l thnh phn ct yu i vi
cc loi nc gii kht c mi v
khng cn. Theo tnh ton ca
ngi i din Tribeco, tr nhng
loi nc gii kht t ng v
khng ng nh coca light, coca
zero hay cc loi nc khong c
gas khng ng khc, th ng
thng chim n 60-70% gi thnh
ca mt kt nc ngt.
L tr xanh bp ti
Gi bp ch ti tng mnh t
nm 2010, t khong 4,000/ kg ln
n khong 6,500-7,000 ng/kg
Cc nh sn xut cng nhp nguyn nm 2011, v vn giao ng quanh
mc ny hai nm gn y.
liu bp ch ti t Lm ng, ni
Hng liu
Hng liu ch yu c
nhp khu t cng ty m
v t nc ngoi nh
Chu u.
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
kt nc ngt l t 10,000-12,000
ng th chi ph v hng liu l t
2,000-3,000 ng, tc l chim
khong 20% chi ph sn xut.
11
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Theo Ph tng gim c cng ty
nc gii kht Tribeco, 95% cc
doanh nghip sn xut s dng
hng liu cng nghip, bao gm:
c ph, tr xanh, tr en, sen, li,
bng cc, cc loi hng hoa qu
nh cam, du, cola, mng cu,
chanh, Cc cng ty ln nh
Cocacola, Pepsi, Chng Dng,
Tribeco mi nm tiu th khong
1500 tn hng liu..
Tuy nhin, cc doanh nghip ni a
vn ang da vo hng liu cng
nghip nhp khu. Nu nh cng ty
Tribeco nhp khu hng liu t
Bin ng t gi
Nhn bit ri ro
- Gi ng u vo chim n 60%- 70% gi thnh sn xut
NGK
- Gi ng thng xuyn bin ng: tng gi t bin vo nm
2011, nhng li gim vo nm 2013
- Sn lng ng cung cp cng. Nm 2013, nhp khu ng
thnh phm l $126,8 triu.
Ri ro cao v di hn nu gi ng tip tc tng, li nhun bin
gim nu khng tng c gi bn
Thua l ngn hn nu tn kho ng cn nhiu trong khi gi
trn th trng gim
- Gi hng liu kh kim sot hn khi phi nhp khu. Gi bin
ng nhiu khin doanh nghip gp ri ro. Hn na, y l mt
hng kh thay th khi ngi tiu dng quen hng v.
-
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Mc
TRUNG BNH
CAO
THP
12
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Dng hng-tin vi nh cung cp
SN XUT V LU KHO
Cc loi nc gii kht khc nhau yu cu nhng chu trnh sn xut khc
nhau.
Chu trnh sn xut tr xanh ng chai
Chu trnh sn xut mt chai nc tr
xanh ng chai khp kn mt khong
19 -20 pht.
Trong khi sn xut , doanh nghip
cn ch n cc thao tc v v
chai. Tr xanh khi ng v chai phi
nhit 100oC, d nhit cao
nhng v chai khng c mp
mo. V chai ch c s dng mt
ln, trnh nhng trng hp s
dng nhiu ln nh nhng doanh
nghip sn xut nc ngt nh l,
thiu tiu chun.
Ngun: VietinbankSc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
13
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Ngun: VietinbankSc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
14
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Quy trnh sn xut nc hoa qu p
Ngun: VietinbankSc
Vng quay
hng tn kho
22.67
6.85
226.56
10.14
NGK khng cn
10.48
U RA V BN HNG
Y t
Dch v tiu dng
11.64
19.93
Th trng u ra chnh
Vin thng
Cc dch v h
tng
Ti chnh
Cng ngh
29.30
43.71
315.23
8.48
Ngun: Vietinbanksc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
15
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Ngun: VietinbankSc
60,000
14%
50,000
12%
10%
40,000
8%
30,000
6%
20,000
dn s tm n cc im tp phm
nh l ti khu vc sinh sng hn l
vo siu th v mc ch tin li, gn
nh, cng nh l quan nim rng gi
siu th thng t hn.
4%
2%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
10,000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
13
68.5
16
80.8
71.5
66
68.5
77.5
Khc
Ca hng tp ha
18.5
0
19.2
31
12.5
29.5
13.5
Siu th
Nc c Nc Nc Nc Nc C ph
ga
hoa qu khong tng lc tr xanh ng
chai
Gi bnh qun/lt
Tc tng gi bnh qun
Ngun: VietinbankSc
Ngun: Euromonitor
Gi c u ra
Vng quay khon phi thu cc
ngnh kinh t 2013
Ngnh
Vng quay
khon phi thu
Du kh
5.72
Vt liu c bn
8.80
Cng nghip
6.87
Hng tiu dng 16.46
NGK khng
30.24
cn
Y t
5.82
Dch v tiu
14.64
dng
Vin thng
18.56
Cc dch v h
17.77
tng
Ti chnh
1.99
Cng ngh
3.35
Ngun: Vietinbanksc
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Dng hng-tin
Trung bnh, nm 2013, ngnh nc
gii kht khng cn thu tin hng
bn ra trong khong 12 ngy. So
snh vi cc sn phm thay th, mt
hng bia li mt ln na c vng
16
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Ri ro u ra
Vi ngnh nc gii kht khng
cn, doanh nghip ang phi i
mt vi mt s ri ro nh ri ro
chnh sch vi vic tng thu tiu
th c bit, ri ro khi lng khi
Ri ro
Ri ro chnh
sch
ngnh sp tin ti im bo ha v
tha cung, ri ro v cht lng sn
phm khi y l mt hng thc
phm, rt d c nhng tai nn v an
ton thc phm.
Nhn bit ri ro
- Nguy c thu 10% trn mt hng nc c ga. Theo tnh ton
ca BVA, gi n ngi tiu dng tng 12-13%.
Lng cu c th gim xung 28%, li nhun tnh ton s
gim 800-1,000 t ng
nh gi ri ro
CAO
Ri ro khi
lng
THP
Ri ro cht
lng sn
phm
THP
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
17
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Sn phm v dch v
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nc tng lc
40.63%
36.41%
Nc hoa qu
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Nc khong
ng chai
2.00%
Tr xanh ng
chai
Caf ng chai
Ngun: Euromonitor
19.31%
Nc GK c
gas
Nc khong
ng chai
0.03%
1.63%
Nc GK c
gas
Nc hoa
qu
Caf ng
chai
Tr xanh
ng chai
Nc tng
lc
Ngun: Euromonitor
Nc tr xanh ng chai
Tc tng trng tr xanh
ng chai: 35% giai on 0913.
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Ngun: Euromonitor
Nc gii kht c ga
B nhm tr xanh v cc sn phm
mi ni thay th, t trng nc ngt
c ga trong ngnh nc gii kht
khng cn ang b thu hp dn li.
Tc tng trng doanh thu tnh
theo lt ca nhm hng ny gim t
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
18
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Vic mt dn t trng ca nhm
nc gii kht c ga c gii thch
bng vic thi hiu ca ngi tiu
dng thay i. Thay v nhng loi
nc c ga, ngi tiu dng chuyn
sang ung cc loi nc tr ng
sn hay cc loi nc hoa qu tri
cy tt cho sc khe khc. Theo
thng k ca B Cng Thng nm
2013, trung bnh c 10 ngi i vo
siu th, th n 6 ngi la chn
mua nc hoa qu thay v nc gii
kht c ga.
Nc tng lc
S tng trng ca dng nc tng
lc ti Vit Nam cng chu s cnh
tranh khc lit ca cc tp on ln.
Nm 2001, Tn Hip Pht sau khi
tht bi dng sn phm bia Bn
Thnh cho ra sn phm mi l
nc tng lc Number 1. Loi nc
gii kht ny t thnh cng nhanh
chng v n p ng c th
hiu ca gii tr nng ng.
Chy ua vi Tn Hip Pht, hai
cng ty Coca Cola Vit nam v
Pepsico Vit Nam sn xut hai
dng sn phm tng t ly tn l
Samurai v Sting. c bit, Pepsico
cho ra i nhng sn phm Sting
mang hng v hoa qu nn nhanh
Nc tri cy p
Nc p tri cy b sung dng
cht cho c th. V vy, nc tri
cy p cng ang tng trng vi
tc cao (21%/nm trong giai on
09-13). Dng nc tri cy ny
dc d on tip tc tng trng
vi tc trung bnh t 17.5%/nm
trong vng 5 nm ti.
C ph ng chai
Mt dng nc giai kht mi ni l
c ph ung lin ng lon. Dng sn
phm ny c t trng nh trong
ngnh v hng v c ph rt kn
ngi ung. Nhng nh sn xut
trong phn khc ny hng ti
khch hng lm vic ti cc cng
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
s. C ph khin h tnh to hn
lm vic tp trung hn. Hin trn th
trng c cc sn phm c ph
sa, c ph en ung lin ca
Ajinomoto, Vinamilk, Nestle, vn
vn.
19
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Yu t quyt nh nhu cu
Nam
87.5%
81.0%
80.5%
70.9%
N
90.6%
85.2%
84.4%
76.1%
By bn rng ri
Gi c
65.0%
45.0%
67.0%
49.0%
Hng v sn phm
l dng hng thc phm, ngi
tiu dng phi quan tm n hng
v. iu ny c th chng minh bng
vic, khi tr xanh ng chai ra i,
doanh s tiu th nc ngt c ga
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
20
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
Th trng ch yu
Theo la tui
Theo iu tra ca VietinbankSc,
nc gii kht khng cn Vit Nam
phc v ch yu la tui 15-35. iu
ny l v y l nhm tui tham gia
nhiu nht vo cc hot ng n
n nhanh nh KFC, Lotteria, hay cc
nh hng khc. y cng l la tui
cha c s nhn thc nhiu v tm
nh hng ca ng v cc loi
nc c ga i vi sc khe. Hn
na, nhm tui ny tham gia vo
cc hot ng th dc th thao,
khin c th c nhu cu v nc
Ngun: Euromonitor
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
21
Sn phm v th trng
Chui gi tr | Sn phm v dch v | Yu t quyt nh nhu cu | Th trng ch yu | a bn kinh doanh
a bn kinh doanh
Ngun: VietinbankSc
ng Nam B
Gn mt na s doanh nghip sn
xut nc ngt khng cn trn c
nc tp trung ti vng ng Nam
B. c bit, cc cng ty doanh
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
22
www.vietinbanksc.com.vn
Lu s dng
Bo co ny c cung cp bi Cng ty C phn Chng
khon Ngn hng Cng thng (VietinbankSC), v
c s dng ch yu cho khch hang ca Cng ty, tun
theo nghim ngt cc iu khon s dng. VietinbankSC
khng c bt k cam kt c nhn no v tnh y v
chnh xc ca d liu hay thng tin c trong bo co ny.
Cng ty t chi trch nhim cng nh ph nhn tt c
trch nhim php l (ngoi tr nhng trch nhim khng
th ph nhn theo lut php) i vi bt k tn tht hay
thit hi no c gy ra hoc pht sinh vi bt c c
nhn no, bt ngun t vic s dng hoc tin tng vo