Delphi technique

INTRODUCTION

DELPHI TECHNIQUE

The Delphi technique is a systematic interactive way of gaining opinions or forecasts from a
panel of independent experts over two or more rounds. It is a type of consensus method.
The Delphi process aims to determine the extent to which experts or lay people agree about a
given issue and with each other. In areas where they disagree, achieve a consensus opinion.
Delphi technique is usually conducted through questionnaires.
Simply Delphi technique is a structured communication method or technique, originally
developed as interactive forecast of a group of experts. Delphi technique is being used for
different purposes in the field of decision making.
It includes at least two rounds of expert answering questions and giving justification or comment
on the same. Provided with the opportunity between the rounds to change or revise their answers.
The multiple rounds, which are stopped after a predefined criterion is reached, enable the group
of experts to arrive at a consensus forecast on the subject being discussed.
The Delphi technique fostered an open air of ideas exchanging and being analyzing and critically
thought about for the benefit of all.
One should try to use a Delphi technique when one is about to make a very big or important
decision in company, governmental issues, commercial decisions or ones own life.

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FIG (1) DELPHI TECHNIQUE

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CONCEPT AND EXAMPLE OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE FOR ANY
ISSUE

Design the questionnaire

Invite participants to take part
Send out first round of questionnaire

EXAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE

Which of the following clinical areas do you think are high priority for development of an
improved evidence base relating to minority ethnic groups and their health needs?
Clinical area

Priority for development of

an improved evidence base

Mental health

Low 1 2 3 4 5 High 0

Vaccination

Low 1 2 3 4 5 High 0

Cancer

Comments

Low 1 2 3 4 5 High 0

The questionnaire provides space for respondents to raise any other issue relating to the topic.
The first round of the questionnaire aim to categorize opinions under common headings
Then, analyze the responses from round one questionnaire.

Then a second round questionnaire is been prepared and sent to the experts.

Research area chosen for the second round questionnaire is identified from the free text column
in the round one questionnaire. Participants have the chance to suggest further area of focus in
the second round. The aim of second round is to score agreement or disagreement with
statement of first round.
Then the responses from second round is being analyzed.

Third round questionnaire is then designed. For that the second round questionnaire is repeated
but incorporates scores from the second round questionnaire results. This gives participants a
chance to see how the rest of the group prioritized the areas and if the participant wants to
change their opinion on the basis of the group consensus, has the opportunity to do so.
Analyze the result of third round for agreement and degree of consensus.
Report findings.
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STEPS TO CONDUCT DECISION MAKING BY DELPHI TECHNIQUE
FOR ANY PROJECT
As a project manager, it is important to think about what future events may impact your projects.
These events may be positive or negative, so understanding them allows you to prepare, and put
plans in place to deal with them. But how can you forecast the future with any degree of
certainty? The Delphi Technique can help.
The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events.
A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to
a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.
The group members discuss and review the summary report, and give updated forecasts to the
facilitator, who again reviews the material and issues a second report. This process continues
until all participants reach a consensus.

The experts at each round have a full record of what forecasts other experts have made, but they
do not know who made which forecast. Anonymity allows the experts to express their opinions
freely, encourages openness and avoids admitting errors by revising earlier forecasts.

This article looks at how to run a Delphi session. On completion of this guide, you will be able to
run a session enabling you to predict future events and their likely impact on your projects.
The technique is an iterative process, and first aims to get a broad range of opinions from the
group of experts. The results of the first round of questions, when summarized, provide the basis
for the second round of questions. Results from the second round of questions feed into the third
and final round.
The aim is to clarify and expand on issues, identify areas of agreement or disagreement and
begin to find consensus.

Step 1: Choose a Facilitator

The first step is to choose your facilitator. You may wish to take on this role yourself, or find
a neutral person within your organization. It is useful to have someone that is familiar with
research and data collection.

Step 2: Identify Your Experts

The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. This panel may be your project team,
including the customer, or other experts from within your organization or industry. An expert
is, any individual with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic.
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Step 3: Define the Problem

What is the problem or issue you are seeking to understand? The experts need to know what
problem they are commenting on, so ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition.

Step 4: Round One Question

Ask general questions to gain a broad understanding of the experts view on future events. The
questions may go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Collate and summaries the
responses, removing any irrelevant material and looking for common viewpoints.

Step 5: Round Two Questions

Based on the answers to the first questions, the next questions should delve deeper into the topic
to clarify specific issues. These questions may also go out in the form of a questionnaire or
survey. Again, collate and summaries the results, removing any irrelevant material and look for
the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build consensus.

Step 6: Round Three Questions

The final questionnaire aims to focus on supporting decision making. Hone in on the areas of
agreement. What is it the experts are all agreed upon?
You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus.

Step 7: Act on Your Findings

After this round of questions, your experts will have, we hope, reached a consensus and you will
have a view of future events. Analyze the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks
and opportunities to your project.

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Conclusion

Use the Delphi Technique for creating Work Breakdown Structures, identifying risks and
opportunities, compiling lessons learned and anytime you would usually conduct a brainstorming
session.
Predicting the future is not an exact science, but the Delphi Technique can help you understand
the likelihood of future events and what impact they may have on your project.

FIG (2) FLOW OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

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OBJECTIVES OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

To determine or develop a range of possible program alternatives;

To seek out information which may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent
group;

To explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to different

judgments;
To correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines .

STRENGTHS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

A rapid consensus can be achieved.

Participants do not have to be in the same room together to reach agreement.
Individuals are able to express their own opinion as opposed to Group think.
Can include a wide range of expertise.
Relatively low cost.
There is the potential to gain large quantities of data.
The face to face discussion hurdles can be avoided.

WEAKNESS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Does not cope well with widely differing opinions or large changes in opinions.
The facilitators view may dominate in the analysis.
Can be time consuming.
Needs high participant motivation.
Success of method depends on quality of participants.

APPLICATIONS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Used in forecasting.
Used in policy making.
Can be used for project implementation.
Used for decision making.
It is used in industrial projects.
It is used in governmental projects.
It is used in prediction
Example: EIA, NURSING etc.

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FIG(3) AN EFFICIENT DECISSION TAKING METHOD

FIG(4) STEP WISE EVALUATION OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE

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MYTH ABOUT DELPHI PANEL EXPERTS

Potential of Identifying General Statements vs. Specific Topic Related

Information
An assumption concerning Delphi participants is that they are equivalent in knowledge and
experience. However, this assumption might not be justified.
More specifically, the expertise of Delphi panelists could be unevenly distributed, especially in
the field of high technology

. Some panelists may have much more in-depth knowledge of certain topics, whereas other
panelists are more knowledgeable about different topics
Therefore, subjects who have less in-depth knowledge of certain topics are unable to specify the
most important statements which have been identified by those subjects who possess in-depth
knowledge concerning the target issue. The outcomes of a Delphi study could be the results of
identifying a series of general statements rather than an in-depth exposition of the topic .

FIG(5) DIAGRAM OF DECISION MAKING

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SUMMARY
The Delphi technique provides those involved or interested in engaging in research, evaluation,
fact-finding, issue exploration, or discovering what is actually known or not known about a
specific topic a flexible and adaptable tool to gather and analyze the needed data. Subject
selection and the time frames for conducting and completing a Delphi study are two areas which
should be considered carefully prior to initiating the study. The additional precautions
concerning low response rates, unintentionally guiding feedback, and surveying panelists about
their limited knowledge of the topic rather than soliciting their expert judgments should also be
built into the design and implementation of the study. The Delphi technique has and will
continue to be an important data collection methodology with a wide variety of applications and
uses for people who want to gather information from those who are immersed and imbedded in
the topic of interest and can provide real-time and real-world knowledge.

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