MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

120

118

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

COPPER

28-FEB-2017

410

405

400

398

395

393

390

385

380

CRUDE OIL

19-DEC-2016

3713

3636

3559

3529

3482

3452

3405

3328

3251

GOLD

03-FEB-2017

29295

28985

28675

28551

28365

28241

28055

27745

27435

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

172

166

160

156

154

150

148

142

136

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015

277

263

249

241

235

227

221

207

193

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

864

834

804

792

774

762

744

714

684

SILVER

03-MAR-2017

42663

41830

40997

40662

40164

39829

39331

38498

37665

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

196

191

186

183

181

178

176

171

166

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

136

130

124

120

COPPER

28-FEB-2017

488

458

428

CRUDE OIL

19-DEC-2016

4725

4276

GOLD

03-FEB-2017

31366

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

118

114

112

106

100

412

398

382

368

338

308

3827

3663

3378

3214

2929

2480

2031

30375

29384

28905

28393

27914

27402

26411

25420

229

206

183

168

160

145

137

114

91

296

275

254

243

233

222

212

191

170

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

996

924

952

816

780

744

708

636

564

SILVER

03-MAR-2017

45506

43807

42108

41217

40409

39518

38710

37011

35312

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

260

236

212

196

188

172

164

140

116

Monday, 05 December 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY ZINC DEC ABOVE 187 TGT 190 SL 184
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30 TGT
SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10 - NOT EXECUTED
FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

USDINR

28-DEC-2016

69

EURINR

28-DEC-2016

GBPINR
JPYINR

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

68.80 68.60

68.40

68.20

68

67.80

67.60

67.40

73.10

72.85 72.65

72.40

72.15

71.90

71.65

71.40

71.25

28-DEC-2016

87.70

87.40 87.10

86.80

86.50

86.20

85.90

85.60

85.30

28-DEC-2016

61.30

61

60.70

60.40

60.10

59.80

59.50

59.20

58.90

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28-DEC-2016

69.30

69

68.70

68.40

68.10

67.80

67.50

67.20

66.90

EURINR

28-DEC-2016

73.60

73.20

72.80

72.40

72

71.60

71.20

70.80

70.40

GBPINR

28-DEC-2016

88.60

88

87.40

86.80

86.20

85.80

85.20

84.60

84

JPYINR

28-DEC-2016

62

61.40

60.90

60.40

60

59.50

59

58.50

58

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 60.40 TGT 61.30 SL 59.80
SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 85 SL 87
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95 NOT EXECUTED
SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05 - MADE LOW OF 85.30

 NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2017

749

744

739

736

734

731

729

724

719

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2017

3285

3247

3209

3188

3171

3150

3133

3095

3057

RMSEED

20-JAN-2017

5097

5003

4909

4854

4815

4760

4721

4627

4533

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2017

19086 18771

18456

18263

18141 17948 17826 17511

17196

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2017

3706

3600

3494

3439

3388

3333

3282

3176

3070

TMC

20-APR-2017

7184

7094

7004

6948

6914

6858

6824

6734

6644

DATE

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2017

787

767

747

740

727

720

707

687

667

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2017

3435

3352

3269

3218

3186

3135

3103

3020

2937

RMSEED

20-JAN-2017

5303

5046

4932

4789

4666

4532

4275

4018

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2017

21086 20171

19256

18663

18341 17748 17426 16511

15596

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2017

3746

3625

3504

3444

3383

3323

3262

3141

3020

TMC

20-APR-2017

7417

7257

7097

6994

6937

6834

6777

6617

6457

DATE

5560

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 18400 TGT 18800 SL 18040
BUY GUARSEED JAN ABOVE 3430 TGT 3540 SL 3390
PREIOUS WEEEK CALL
SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905 - CLOSED AT 18460

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE
BULLION
Gold edged higher on Friday, climbing for the first time in four sessions as it shrugged off data
showing rising U.S. job numbers, with analysts saying that an expected rise in interest rates had
already been priced in. U.S. employers boosted hiring in November, pushing down the
unemployment rate to a more than nine-year low of 4.6 percent and increasing the likelihood
that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. is highly sensitive to rising interest
rates, which make the non-yielding asset less attractive while boosting the dollar, in which it is
priced. "The market is still thinking a December hike is very likely, which has already factored
in, and that's why gold is not really moving today," said Natixis' precious metals analyst,
Bernard Dahdah. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $1,174.03 an ounce by 2:33 p.m. EST,
bouncing up from Thursday's lowest level since Feb. 5 at $1,160.38. It was on track to record a
fourth straight week of losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.7 percent at $ 1,177.80 per
ounce. Capital Economics commodities economist Simona Gambarini said that U.S. presidentelect Donald Trump is uppermost in investors' minds. "Most investors are now looking at 2017
to see what's going to happen with Trump, what policies he will implement and the inflationary
impact of those policies," Gambarini said. The dollar index .DXY , which measures the
greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped by about 0.3 percent, helping to support
gold prices. "With a rate rise in a couple of weeks almost certain, the dollar will remain firm
and gold will remain pressured, although we could see a bit of book-squaring in the run-up,"
said Marex Spectron's head of precious metals, David Govett. Commerzbank said that it
expects the upward trend of the first half of the year to resume in 2017. headwind from U.S.
dollar appreciation and the rise of bond yields should abate and investment demand should pick
up again also given the numerous risk factors," Commerzbank said. Holdings of the world's
largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust GLD , fell 1.5 percent on
Thursday after dropping more than 6 percent last month. Silver XAG= rose 1 percent to $16.66
an ounce while platinum XPT= was up 1.8 percent at $927.80. Palladium XPD= shed 1.5
percent at $739, and was on track to close the week down for the first time in five weeks after
tumbling from Thursday's 1-1/2-year high.
Gold recovered from its lowest since early February on Friday as the dollar drifted lower ahead
of U.S. jobs data, but is still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold XAU=
was up 0.2 percent at $1,173.59 an ounce by 0612 GMT. The metal fell to its lowest since Feb.
5 at $1,160.38 in the previous session. For the week, gold was trading down 0.8 percent. U.S.

gold futures GCcv1 gained 0.5 percent at $1,175.30 per ounce. "These movements in gold can
be tied to the dollar," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong
Kong. "There is a bit of buying in the physical side, but that has not been really aggressive."
The dollar index .DXY , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies,
fell about 0.3 percent on Friday to 100.770 as investors remained wary ahead of U.S. payrolls
data due later in the day. "Most market participants are awaiting the crucial non-farm payrolls
data due today. A positive outcome could mean the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates in
the next meet," said Hareesh V, Research Head at Geofin Comtrade Ltd. The dollar has scaled
back from near 14-year highs of 102.05 hit on Nov. 24 on the back of a surge in U.S. Treasury
yields triggered by expectations of higher fiscal impulse and faster pace of monetary tightening
under president-elect Donald Trump. Several Fed policymakers have since expressed
confidence in the U.S. economy and signalled a possible near-term interest rate hike. Gold is
highly sensitive to rising interest rates, as these lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion, while boosting the dollar. "People are rushing to the stock market rather than the gold
markets. That is evident in the liquidation we are seeing in the exchange traded funds ," Leung
of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers added. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund,
SPDR Gold Trust GLD , fell 1.54 percent to 870.22 tonnes on Thursday. Holdings have fallen
over 6 percent last month. Spot gold XAU= may bounce moderately into a range of $1,184 to
$1,194 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. XAG= was mostly
unchanged at $16.52 an ounce. Platinum XPT= slid 0.1 percent at $909.50 but was on track to
rise for the first time in 4 weeks. Palladium XPD= rose 0.3 percent at $752.65 an ounce after
scaling its highest level since June 2015 at $774.60 in the previous session. It was set to rise for
a fifth straight week.
Gold prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, recovering from their lowest levels since
February as the dollar and long-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields retreated from recent highs.
Spot gold XAU= was up 0.8 percent at $1,192.64 an ounce by 2:44 p.m. ET, after climbing as
high as $1,197.54 earlier in the session. Prices remained within sight of Friday's 9-1/2-month
low of $1,171.21. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 1.05 percent at $1,190.80 per ounc. The
metal has fallen nearly 7 percent so far this month, as the dollar and bond yields benefited from
heightened expectations of enlarged fiscal spending by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As
gold pays no interest, the rise in returns from U.S. bonds and other markets is seen as negative
for the metal. "If oil prices collapse or stay low then inflation won't pick up as much and there
would be less of an incentive to raise U.S. rates rapidly and the dollar would not be as strong,
which would be supportive for gold," The dollar .DXY was down 0.2 percent against a basket
of six major currencies, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR retreated from
last week's 16-month high. "The interest rate hike has been priced into gold but you could
expect further volatility leading up to the rate hike," said Maxwell Gold, director of investment

strategy at ETF Securities, noting that the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S.
interest rates at its mid-December meeting. Traders also said a directive from the People's Bank
of China to limit gold imports was creating concerns about supply in the top consumer of the
metal and kept premiums in Shanghai around $22. Gold premiums in China jumped to the
highest in nearly three years last week on supply worries. from South East Asia is also quite
good and buying at lower prices could have driven prices higher, said Cameron Alexander, an
analyst with Thomson Reuters GFMS metals consultancy. SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's
largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.73 percent to 885.04 tonnes
on Friday. "As long as we continue to see this quite heavy selling in the ETFs market and
strength in the dollar, gold could come under further pressure,"

ENERGY
Oil prices rose for a third day on Friday, settling above $51 a barrel after the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to cut output for the first time in eight
years in order to reduce a global supply glut. U.S. crude oil settled up 63 cents or 1.23% at
$51.69 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S crude ended
the week with a gain of 14%, the largest weekly percentage gain since early 2011. Global
benchmark Brent futures were at $54.43 a barrel, up 49 cents or 0.91% on Londons ICE
Futures Exchange and rose nearly 15% for the week, the biggest weekly percentage gain since
early 2009. Oil prices surged after OPEC agreed on its first production cut since 2008, aimed at
reining in massive oversupply that has seen prices more than halve since mid-2014. The deal
will see output cut by 1.2 million bpd from January 2017. The agreement will be reassessed
after six months with an option to extend for another six months.
The 14-member cartel is responsible for a third of global oil production, or 33.6 million barrels
per day. The agreement also included coordinated action with non-OPEC members, who are
expected to decrease production by 600,000 barrels a day. Russia has said it will cut production
by 300,000 barrels a day. But analysts said that the cuts are likely to cause other producers,
especially U.S. shale drillers, to increase output. Analysts are also doubtful over how the
agreement will be enforced, as OPEC has no authority to make its members comply. In the
week ahead, markets will focus their attention on the implementation and impact of the OPEC
agreement. Traders will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for
fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list
of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Oil prices extended gains early on Friday as producer cartel OPEC and Russia agreed to rein in
a global oversupply in crude on Wednesday with analysts now focusing their attention on
implementation of the deal. "It looks achievable on the face of it, provided the parties to the

latest production cut deal stick to their pledges, which has historically been somewhat of a
sticking point," Still, traders said the market was optimistic about Wednesday's historic OPECRussia deal to reduce global output and help bring the oil market back into balance."This is
positive news that will make a sustainable difference to the oil market over the coming
months," said Ric Spooner, chief market strategist at CMC Markets adding that it wouldn't be
surprising to see this momentum continue.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $51.10 per barrel by 0037 GMT, up 5
cents from their last settlement. Traders said price developments in crude futures over the
coming days would help reflect the market's optimism of the deal.
"WTI has arrived at the peaks from the middle of last year and again in October," Spooner said,
which will be a test for the market that may give some insight into how positive traders view
this week's agreement. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on
Wednesday its first oil output reduction since 2008 after de-facto leader Saudi Arabia accepted
"a big hit" and dropped a demand that arch-rival Iran also slash output. The deal also included
the group's first coordinated action with non-OPEC member Russia in 15 years.
Oil prices fell early on Tuesday on doubts that producer cartel OPEC will be able to hammer
out a meaningful output cut during a meeting on Wednesday to rein in a global supply overhang
and prop up prices. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.10 per
barrel at 0102 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $46.89 a barrel. The
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is meeting officially in Vienna on
Wednesday to discuss a planned production cut in an effort to curb overproduction that has
dogged markets and more than halved prices since 2014. With a high degree of uncertainty
going into the last 24 hours before the meeting, oil price volatility is expected to be high.
"We expect intra-day volatility to ratchet higher again into tomorrow, with price action being
entirely headline driven," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in
Singapore. There remains disagreement among OPEC-members over which producers should
cut by how much, and a plan to bring non-OPEC oil giant Russia to participate has so far also
failed.
Saudi Arabia's problems run far deeper than trying to cobble together a deal with fellow OPEC
members to curb crude oil output in order to bolster prices. About two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's
oil exports head to Asia, and the kingdom's struggles in the region's two biggest importers,
China and India, are symptoms of its wider issues in crude markets. While Saudi Arabia has
been increasing the total volume of crude it ships to China and India, it has steadily been losing
market share, something that is likely of deep concern given that much of the current and future
growth of oil demand is dependent on these two countries. Saudi Arabia is likely going to have

re-think its long-standing practice of selling oil via fixed contracts and embrace a move to a far
larger proportion of spot cargoes and flexible pricing. In the first 10 months of the year, China
imported 42.72 million tonnes of oil from Saudi Arabia, equivalent to about 1.03 million
barrels per day (bpd). represented an increase of 0.67 percent from the same period in 2015, in
other words Saudi Arabia's exports to China are largely steady. The problem is that China's total
oil imports are up 13.6 percent in the first 10 months of 2016, and all of Saudi Arabia's
competitors have been cashing in. China's imports from Russia have gained 27 percent to 42.83
million tonnes, slightly more than those of Saudi Arabia and making Russia the top supplier.
China's imports from Iraq have gained 14.7 percent, those from Iran 15.7, from Angola 12.1
percent and Oman 8.1 percent. Saudi Arabia's share of China's oil imports was 13.7 percent in
the first 10 months of the year, down from 15.1 percent in 2015, while Russia's share has
gained to 13.7 percent from 12.6 percent. It's not much better for Saudi Arabia in India, Asia's
second-biggest oil importer.Saudi Arabia supplied 830,400 bpd to India in the first 10 months
of the year, up 6.8 percent from the same period in 2015, according to data compiled by
Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodities Research. problem is that Iraq supplied
783,900 bpd in the first 10 months, up 24 percent, while Iran shipped 456,400 bpd, up a
massive 114.6 percent as the Islamic Republic returned to the market after the lifting of
Western sanctions against its nuclear programme.
In the first 10 months of the year, Saudi Arabia's share of Indian imports was 19.4 percent,
down from 19.7 percent in 2015. Iraq's share was 18.3 percent in the first 10 months, up from
16.1 percent in 2015, while Iran's was 10.6 percent, surging from 5.2 percent in 2015.

BASE METAL
LME Copper prices traded lower by 2 percent last week as Chinese exchanges took stern
measures to tame the excessive volatility in base metals. Also, uncertainty regarding OPEC
decision and Italys referendum hurt prices for better part of the week. Further, Chinalco has
reached a deal with the Peruvian government for a major expansion of Toromocho, one of
Perus biggest copper mines. Also, Perus National Institute of Statistics said last week that
national copper production in September grew 35.9% as compared to the same month of 2015.
However, sharp downside was restricted as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries reached a deal on Wednesday to reduce their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per
day in order to raise global prices.Moreover, manufacturing data from the US and China
expanded in November, adding to positive demand outlook. MCX copper prices traded lower
by 1.7 percent to close at Rs.396.7 per kg on Friday.
Copper prices fell by 1.47 per cent to Rs 330.70 a kg in futures trade on Monday as participants
indulged in reducing their exposure ahead of monthly expiry amid muted demand at the

domestic spot markets. However, strength in the base metals pack at the London Metal
EXchange, capped the fall. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in February
next year declined by Rs 5.95 or 1.47 per cent to Rs 399.90 per kg in a business turnover of 205
lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery this month was trading lower by Rs 5.75 or 1.44
per cent to Rs 394.90 per kg in 702 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders ahead
of November month expiry amid a weak trend at the domestic spot markets as some industrial
metals fell due to low demand, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.
Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange continue to rally, helping Hindalco, Vedanta
and Hindustan Zinc to touch their all-time or 52-week highs.While zinc has been the best
performing base metal, with LME prices almost doubling from the lows seen at the start of the
year, other metals follow. Copper prices are at levels earlier seen 16 months earlier; aluminium
and lead have made smart gains.A rally last month was on hope that a Trump-led administration
would boost infrastructure spending in America, spurring demand. In contrast to sentiment at
the start of year, wherein concerns of a global recession led by the US and slowing China
demand had pulled down prices. With capacities getting curtailed and sentiment improving,
there was a rebound. Investors perceive zinc as the metal with the tightest supply situation,
given the multitude of closures over two years. A Bloomberg report said industrial metals
rallied almost 30 per cent in 2016 as demand stabilised in China and Donald Trump pledged to
invest in infrastructure and revitalise the US economy, while mine closures curbed supply.
Chinese investors have added to the speculative binge, it added.
Zinc futures traded 2.02 per cent lower at Rs 184.55 per kg today as speculators trimmed
positions to book profits even as the metal strengthened overseas. Zinc for delivery in
December declined by Rs 3.80, or 2.02 per cent, to Rs 184.55 per kg at the Multi Commodity
Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 1,116 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in
January softened by Rs 3.75, or 1.98 per cent, to Rs 185.20 per kg in 16 lots. Analysts said the
weakness in zinc at futures trade was mostly attributed to profit-booking at current levels, but
metal's strength at the London Metal Exchange amid signs that production will trail demand,
capped the fall. Globally, zinc for delivery in three months climbed 1 per cent to USD 2,728 per
tonne on the LME. Prices climbed 9.8 per cent last month, the steepest advance since April 2
Tracking a weak trend overseas, nickel prices fell by 0.43 per cent to Rs 761.50 per kg in
futures market today as participants cut down their bets. Furthermore, tepid demand from
consuming industries particularly alloy-makers, at the domestic spot markets, weighed on the
prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in December was down by Rs
3.30, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 761.40 per kg in a business turnover of 602 lots. In a similar
fashion, the metal for delivery in January eased by Rs 1.80, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 768 per kg in

6 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in nickel futures to a weak trend overseas where base metals
retreated in London as some investors who piled into last month's metals rally are locking in
some of their gains on the view that the surge driven by speculation of rising US and Chinese
demand moved too fast.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Sugar
Sugar trade expected to normalise in December There has been a slight pick-up in sugar trade,
which was affected due to the demonetisation drive, in the last three to four days in
Maharashtra. Industry experts expect near normalcy in trade by the next week. Post
demonetisation, demand was very poor because of currency shortage in the market and prices
fell by R10-30 per quintal. Trade was also impacted to the tune of 30%. However, things have
started picking up, Mukesh Kuvediya, said secretary general, Bombay Sugar Merchants
Association. Trade had dropped by nearly 30% in this period and it remains to be seen up to
what extent the pick-up in trade happens, he pointed out. Sugar millers in Maharashtra had also
complained about lack in demand from traders in November. The expected decline in the sugar
production during the 2016-17 sugar season (October-September), actual decline in the
domestic sugar stocks during the 2015-16 season and a global sugar deficit scenario has kept
prices up.
Sugar output up 17% till end Nov Sugar output in the first two months of the 2016-17 sugar
year was up 17 per cent at 27.41 lakh tonnes over the corresponding period last year as more
factories began early crushing. About 365 factories had started crushing as on November 30 as
against 340 in the corresponding period last year, according to the Indian Sugar Mills
Association , the apex trade body. About 136 mills had begun crushing in Maharashtra and
have, so far, produced 9.6 lakh tonnes of the sweetener. In Uttar Pradesh, 101 mills have started
crushing operations and produced 8.51 lakh tonnes. Similarly in Karnataka, about 58 sugar
mills produced around 7 lakh tonnes and in Gujarat, about 18 factories produced 1.37 lakh
tonnes. Crushing operations in all the other States have also begun and production stood at 1.03
lakh tonnes up to November 30.

Soybean
Soybean futures closed higher for the week but the prices are trading flat and tried to stabilize
at the current levels as the arrivals of soybean in the domestic market keeping the supplies more

that the demand. The most-active Dec16 delivery contract closed 0.30% higher last week to
settle at Rs. 3,112 per quintal. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the
month of December. SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (JulJun) soybean output in the
country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier which is quite bearish for the domestic price.
CBOT soybean prices closed lower on Friday on reports of improved weather in South America
for soybean planting and expectation of Chinese purchases of US soybean. Soybean prices have
been supported by strong demand for U.S. supplies led by China, but the export sales notices to
China dropped by over 45% in November to 1.16 mt from 2.1 mt in October. Market
participants are in apprehension that demand may not be sustained at such high prices when
supplies are looking pretty good.
Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures closed higher on week due to winter demand by the industrial buyers and
increase in MSP. However, the prices have corrected in last two trading sessions due to profit
booking. The Dec16. contract ended 2.86% higher last week to settle at Rs. 4,778/quintal.
There are reports of good sowing progress in the state of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and MP. As
per agriculture ministry data, Countrys mustard acreage in the ongoing rabi season touched
61.7 lakh hectares as on Dec 02 up 13.6% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not
affected much, as farmers had already bought the seeds. Rajasthan, the top mustard producing
state, planted 27.3 lakh ha, up 17% from a year ago similarly acreage under mustard increase
by 10% in Uttar Pradesh to 11 lh. In MP, mustard is sown in 6.35 lh, up 12% compared to last
year. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which
includes bonus of Rs.100 /quintals.
Refined Soy Oil
Refined soy oil futures closed higher last week tracking international prices and increase in
tariff values by the government. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec16 expiry contract closed
3.19% higher on week to settle at Rs. 732.5/10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil was raised by
$4 per tn to $876 which was the fifth increase in two and half month by the government. The
tariff value of soy oil has been increase by about 6.5% since 15-Sep-16. As per SEA data, India
October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year
ago while, Indias 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt an increase of 41% y/y for
the current oil year (Nov-Oct).
Jeera
Jeera futures were volatile during the last week and closed down mainly due to reports of good
progress of Jeera sowing in Gujarat. However, tight supplies and fresh export enquiries

supported prices. NCDEX Dec16 Jeera closed 1.55% down to close at Rs 18,480 per quintal.
Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. As on 28-Nov- 16, Gujarat farmers have
planted jeera in 1,41,100 hectares, up by 122.5% compared to last year acreage. The stock
position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 02- Dec2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is
totaled at 141 tonnes while it was 159 tonnes last week. Last year stocks were about 5,336
tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months
(Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to same period
last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while
there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.

Turmeric
Turmeric futures closed lower last week on reports of good production from new season crops
as the harvesting will begins in the next month. However, the prices have been supported over
7,200 levels as rains are expected in the Turmeric growing regions of Telangana. Turmeric
Dec16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 1.12% lower to settle at Rs 7,264 per quintal. The
stock positions of Turmeric in the Exchange warehouses in the current season are only stock at
Sangali while last year the stocks were stored in Duggirala, Erode and Nizamabad too. On the
export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period, up
by 32% compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in
coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on
turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher
this year as compared last year.
Kapas
Cotton complex prices closed higher last week due to good demand for new season cotton.
However, the gain was limited due to ease in arrivals of seed cotton (Kapas) in the physical
market. The total supplies of cotton in the domestic market during 2016/17 will be lower at 408
lakh bales compared to 427 lakh bales as compared to last year supplies as per latest release by
CAI due less carry over stock and imports. NCDEX Kapas for Apr17 closed 1.04% higher
while MCX Nov16 cotton closed 0.05% higher. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the
country are pegged at 45.43 lakh bales (lb) as on 27 November, 2016. As per Agmarknet data,
during November about 34 lakh bales has arrived in the country. As per ICAC press release,
India's cotton exports are seen falling 34% on
year to 825,000 tonnes in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) as shortage of cash has led to delays in sales of
cotton and shipments to ports. On the production front, CAI estimated 356 lakh bales (170 kg
each) for the season 2016-17 (Oct-Sep), as against the governments first estimate of 321.2 lakh

bales. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at 105.6 lh against 116 lh last year.
ICE Cotton futures marked its second successive weekly decline slipped about 0.3% for the
week due to good harvesting progress of the US cotton and slowdown in exports. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on 28-Nov-16 showed that
77% of cotton crops were harvested in the United States by the week ended Nov. 27, up from
67 % in the previous week but lower than the five year average of 84%. However, USDA
showed net upland sales of 202,300 running bales for the week Nov 18-24 were down 21%
from the previous week but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average for the 2016/17 crop.
The data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that managed money
raising its net long position in cotton contracts on ICE Futures U.S. to a record high in the week
to Nov. 29. It raised their net long position in cotton by 744 lots to 101,392 lots which is the
highest level since the data became publicly available in 2006. As per ICAC, world ending
stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China
continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China will decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the
Chinese government sold over 2mt from its official reserves from May through September
2016.

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