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rains in 3 years
Analytical contacts
Dharmakirti Joshi
Chief Economist, CRISIL
dharmakirti.joshi@crisil.com
Dipti Deshpande
Senior Economist, CRISIL
dipti.deshpande@crisil.com
Sakshi Gupta
Economist, CRISIL
sakshi.gupta@crisil.com
Table of contents
It didnt pour only for groundnut.......................................................................................................... 1
Benedictions from the rain god ........................................................................................................... 2
Farm story intact despite deficiency in a third of districts .................................................................. 3
Rural incomes on the rise ....................................................................................................................6
Key demand indicators roseate........................................................................................................... 7
Sowing on a good footing ...................................................................................................................10
Reservoirs fill up, good augury for rabi season as well........................................................................11
Impact on inflation and growth.......................................................................................................... 12
Measuring the granular impact of rains ............................................................................................ 13
Monsoon and state dynamics of inflation ..........................................................................................15
Rainfall in 2016 has been recorded as normal, at just 3% below the long-period average. Whats better is
that for the first time in 3 years, rains were well-distributed only 33% of the districts saw deficient
rains, compared with 49% in 2015 and 46% in 2014. Moreover, more than half of these deficient districts
are well-irrigated and the many that are not are agriculturally less relevant. To be sure, there is some
stress is pockets mainly in Gujarat and Karnataka, where a few districts are witnessing their second or
third consecutive deficiency.
CRISILs state-wise Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, scores show all states sans Gujarat,
Tamil Nadu and Odisha are above-trend. Also, among crops, only groundnut has a below-trend DRIP
score.
We expect rural incomes to rise and push rural demand up this fiscal
The despondency of the past two monsoons has given way to sanguinity. After a slow start in June, rains caught
up and, as on September 28, 2016, were just 3% short of the long-period average (LPA). This has boosted
reservoir levels from the lows seen at the beginning of this fiscal, and done the confidence of farmers a world of
good. To wit, the area coverage under all kharif crops is at 1,060 lakh hectare compared with 1,052 lakh hectare
last year. Also, rural demand is starting to show green shoots and is likely to provide the much-needed fillip to
rural consumption this fiscal.
Our DRIP indicator is better for all crops compared with a year ago. Among states, it is upbeat for all except
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Odisha as of September 28, though Karnataka is below trend. Rural demand, as shown
by indicators such as auto sales (especially for two-wheelers, utility vans and tractors), and FMCG BSE index,
reflect some rebound. Further, with rising output, we expect rural incomes to pick up this fiscal.
We expect GDP to grow 7.9% this fiscal (up 30 basis points compared with fiscal 2015), and agriculture to grow
above trend at 4%, while CPI inflation would remain contained at 5% (only 10 basis points up on-year).
Normal monsoons are rarely perfect in in their distribution across time and geography. As of September 28, 33%
of Indias 629 districts for which rainfall data is available, have seen rainfall deficiency of 20% or more. In
contrast, in 2015, about 49% had reported deficient rains and in 2014, 46%.
More than half of the districts seeing deficient rains have adequate irrigation cover (net irrigated area is equal
to, or more than, 50% of cropped area). Plus many rain-deficient districts are agriculturally less relevant,
contributing under 4% to kharif production and having less than 7% of overall sown area, underscoring limited
impact.
There is some stress in pockets, particularly in Gujarat and Karnataka, which are the worst affected this year.
The share of these states in all-India kharif production is less than 7% and that of their distressed districts just
1.7%. From the state perspective, however, the stress to agricultural household incomes could be high as a
quarter of the kharif production in Karnataka and about 33% in Gujarat comes from the distressed districts.
Also, the kharif crop contributes about 66% of the total agriculture production in Karnataka and 55% in Gujarat.
120
100
% Irrigated area
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
80
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
60
[CELLRANGE]
40
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
20
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
Rainfall % normal
Source: AGRICOOP, CRISIL Research
Note: Rainfall up to September 28; irrigation as of 2011
% of districts
Excess / normal
Deficient / scanty
2006
60
40
2007
73
27
2008
76
24
2009
41
59
2010
69
31
2011
76
24
2012
59
41
2013
72
28
2014
54
46
2015
51
49
2016
67
33
Source: IMD
The deficient districts this year have recorded rainfall 20-91% below the LPA. But, nearly 54% of these districts
also have sufficient irrigation buffer, which reduces their vulnerability to poor rains. A scatter plot reveals that
districts with greater rain deficiency are also the ones with higher irrigation cover.
Rainfall deficiency and irrigation cover
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-95
-85
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
The balance 87 are the distressed districts which are reeling under the double whammy of poor irrigation cover
(less than 50% irrigated area as a percentage of cropped area) and deficient rains. In some of these, rains have
been deficient for the second or third consecutive year, indicating a higher degree of stress.
However, these distressed districts are less important agriculturally as they contribute less than 4% of allIndia Kharif production and less than 7% of the overall sown area.
This gives us reason to believe the adverse impact on the countrys agricultural output will be contained.
Therefore, although over 30% of Indias districts have seen weak rains, the impact on all-India agriculture from
these pockets will be negligible.
The worst-affected states this year are Gujarat and Karnataka where some districts have received deficient
rainfall for the second or third consecutive year (see DRIP scores table). The share of states in all-India kharif
production is less than 7% and that of the distressed districts just 1.7%. But from the perspective of the
affected states, the stress to agricultural household incomes could be high. Thats because a quarter of the
kharif production in Karnataka and about 33% in Gujarat comes from the distressed districts. Besides, the
kharif crop contributes about 66% of the total agriculture production in Karnataka and 55% in Gujarat.
The 13 distressed districts in Gujarat and Karnataka mainly grow rice, in addition to cotton (in Gujarat) and
maize and ragi (in Karnataka), contributing about a quarter of the states production of these crops. In Gujarat,
about 40% of the states cotton production comes from here.
Similarly, there are a few other states (especially in the east and north-east) where the extent of stress is also
likely to be high. The all-India data therefore, to some extent, masks these stress points.
Identifying the stress in agricultural pockets
% state
production share
in all-India kharif
production
36.7
28.8
6.9
4.7
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.9
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Number of
districts with
deficient /
scanty rains*
37
1
1
16
12
12
5
2
9
5
19
11
13
5
6
2
2
1
6
5
1
1
5
4
14
Number of
distressed
districts with
deficient / scanty
rains
1
0
0
8
0
1
2
0
6
4
9
2
13
4
1
2
1
1
5
4
1
1
5
2
13
Distressed district
production % share
in state kharif
production
1.7
0
0
32.9
0
0.4
3.4
0
24.4
6.7
7.1
1.6
61.8
24.3
9.5
22.1
34.5
17.6
25.0
57.6
16.2
100.0
15.6
25.7
98.9
Distressed district
production % share
in all-India kharif
production
0.6
0
0
1.5
0
0.0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Kharif
production %
share in total
state production
74.6
94.5
2.2
55.2
44.6
49.4
39.0
23.2
65.9
90.9
13.5
9.2
19.8
11.7
6.4
88.3
83.7
73.2
79.2
39.3
83.8
55.1
1.6
12.1
0.0
State
DRIP
score
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
21
Maize, rice
Chamarajanagar
Karnataka
34
40
Vadodara
Gujarat
29
35
16
20
Cotton (lint)
Bharuch
Gujarat
28
18
13
30
14
Cotton (lint)
Narmada
Gujarat
23
25
25
17
12
Cotton (lint)
Chikamaglur
Karnataka
22
11
15
Rice, ragi
Kutch
Gujarat
21
15
23
Hassan
Karnataka
20
23
16
24
Ahmedabad
Gujarat
19
14
15
Sabarkantha
Gujarat
19
10
Surendranagar
Gujarat
17
10
16
Cotton (lint)
11
Bellary
Karnataka
15
20
14
Rice, maize
12
Dharwad
Karnataka
14
28
29
Maize
Rice
13
Uttar Kannada
Karnataka
7
Higher the DRIP score, the worse the impact of
deficient rains
Still, at an all-India level, stress is lower this year. Key kharif-growing states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP),
Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana which produce nearly half of the countrys kharif output have the most number
of districts with deficient or scanty rainfall. But, the production share of the distressed districts is only 2% of
all-India kharif production. Adequate irrigation cover has come to the aid of all except Gujarat. In UP, less than
2% of the kharif crop production comes from these affected districts. The number for Haryana is even lower at
below 1%.
%yr
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Agri income
Agri output
Agri price
2016-17 F
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2016-17 F
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2016-17 F
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
-2.0
2012-13
0.0
And thats not all. A visible spurt in construction works, especially roads, is likely to raise non-agricultural rural
incomes. The length of roads completed (both new connectivity and upgradation) under the Pradhan Mantri
Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) so far this fiscal is higher compared with the same period last year.
Road construction rising, boosting employment and incomes
6.2
5.3
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17F
Consumer durables: Over time, rural consumption has shifted from necessities to discretionary goods. Over half
of India's consumer durables stock, such as television sets and electric fans, are consumed in hinterland. Sales
of two-wheelers, motorcycles and multipurpose vans indicate that rural demand has recovered in the past few
months. In the first quarter of fiscal 2017, sales of multipurpose vans rose 5% and two-wheelers and
motorcycles 8%. Durables picked up pace after de-growth in fiscals 2014 and 2015, partly driven by a revival in
urban demand. Now, with a good monsoon expected to push up rural demand, consumer durables sales should
accelerate.
FMCGs: Growth in consumer non-durables production, which includes fast-moving consumer goods such as
food, personal products, cosmetics, cleaning products and fuel that account for 34% of rural demand, appears
to have bottomed out. The BSE FMCG index has risen to 8725 in July 2016 from 7697 in March 2016. We find that
the BSE FMCG index has moved in tandem with rainfall progress in the past four years.
Tractor sales: A bounce-back from the lows of fiscal 2015 signals improving farm activity and income.
Government spend: Higher government expenditure on agriculture and rural development in the first quarter
will provide further support to incomes and demand in rural areas.
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
-10
-10
-20
-20
Vans
Multi purpose
Multi-purpose
vans
Two
wheelers
Two-wheelers
Scooters
Scooters
Motorcycles
Non-durables
Oct-15
May-16
Mar-15
Jan-14
Aug-14
Jun-13
Apr-12
Nov-12
Sep-11
Jul-10
Feb-11
Dec-09
Oct-08
May-09
Mar-08
Jan-07
Jun-06
Aug-07
-30
FY17 YTD
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
-30
Durables
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
20
9,000
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
-40
15
8,500
10
8,000
5
7,500
7,000
-5
-10
6,500
-15
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
6,000
-20
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17 YTD
Rainfall
%
% change
inisBSE
RainfallDef
deficiency
Change
BSEFMCG
FMCGIndex
Index
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
Credit
toto
Agriculture
Credit
agriculture
Rs billion, Apr-Jun
1,006
724
644
625
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
100
94
101
102
100
87
Total Pulses
pulses
Rice
all
All crops
crops
cotton
Cotton
90
Sugarcane Total
TotalFood
sugarcane
food
grain
grains
Sowing was 27% above normal for pulses and 3.6% for groundnut. Sowing for rice was normal, but slightly below
normal for cotton and sugarcane. Cotton saw a slow season this year with total sown area 13% below the
normal.
10
11
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Food
Dairy
Cereals
Oils
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
-60
Sugar
12
The DRIP index can also be calculated state-wise to assess granular impact. DRIP scores of a state are arrived
at by aggregating crop-wise scores, where the weight of each crop is its sown area as a share of total sown area
for all crops.
Rice
Jowar
Bajra
Soyabean
Sugarcane
Tur
Groundnut
Maize
Cotton
All crops
Foodgrain DRIP
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
28 SEP
Average
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.0
2.1
2.5
1.0
0.3
2.3
1.8
2.1
2.2
0.9
2.0
2.5
10.8
8.7
4.6
0.8
11.2
14.0
7.0
7.4
2.3
4.1
3.1
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.6
0.9
0.1
1.5
0.1
1.03
2.6
3.8
11.2
13.9
17.0
1.6
14.8
9.0
10.0
10.5
3.72
5.9
3.6
16.7
13.6
15.1
1.6
18.6
9.7
10.3
9.8
3.7
6.1
2.8
5.1
5.7
0.3
0.5
5.6
9.1
4.5
3.0
1.5
3.4
2011-2015
3.0
8.2
8.1
7.6
1.0
9.5
6.9
6.2
6.0
2.3
4.1
13
All states except Gujarat, Karnataka, Odisha and Tamil Nadu are better off than the average of the past six
years. Scores for Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Odisha are higher than last year, suggesting they are worse-off this
year. Karnataka, on the other hand, is better placed, though below trend.
State-level differences also mean varying crop impact. In terms of overall state DRIP scores, Gujarat, which
accounts for 11% of Indias bajra production, 9% of tur, 39% of groundnut and 29% of cotton, was the worstaffected as on September 28. While Gujarat's area under cotton is well-irrigated, that for groundnut is not,
making the crop vulnerable.
State-wise DRIP score
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Karnataka
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Odisha
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
30 SEP
28 SEP
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011-2015 Average
4.4
0.0
0.0
13.3
4.1
0.0
4.4
0.0
7.8
11.1
6.5
10.4
1.5
7.1
0.0
17.9
0.0
5.7
7.9
11.1
6.3
2.3
4.8
2.7
6.9
4.5
3.3
4.2
0.0
9.9
0.0
0.0
13.6
9.2
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.6
10.8
0.0
5.9
2.1
11.2
0.0
15.1
22.1
0.0
10.1
2.9
0.2
1.7
0.0
6.8
7.3
2.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
6.9
0.0
0.2
3.4
7.1
2.5
2.1
4.7
0.8
13.2
12.8
3.9
6.7
0.0
4.4
3.5
5.9
0.0
0.0
2.8
14
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
4
10
11
% food inflation
Note: Food inflation is average of June-August 2016
15
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17
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Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
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