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Discounted Cash Flow model

Operating Profit (not stated assume $m)


Add Depreciation (not cash flow)
(Increase)/Decrease in Acc Rec
Acc Rec B/f
Acc Rec C/f
Increase/(Decrease) in Acc Payable
Acc Pay B/f
Acc Pay C/f
(Increase)/Decrease in inventory
B/F
C/f
(Increase)/Decrease in Prepaid Exp
Prepaid Exp B/f
Prepaid Exp C/f
Increase/(Decrease) in Acc Exp
Acc Exp B/f
Acc Exp C/f
Increase in PPE
Net PPE C/f
Add Depreciation
less Net PPE B/f

Net Cash Flow

2009
6.84
0.37
7.21

2010
10.36
0.53
10.89

2011
13.47
0.69
14.16

2012
14.30
0.79
15.09

2013
18.63
0.84
19.47

6.64
(9.10)
(2.46)

9.10
(9.43)
(0.33)

9.43
(9.21)
0.22

9.21
(8.86)
0.35

8.86
(10.48)
(1.62)

(0.62)
0.85
0.23

(0.85)
0.88
0.03

(0.88)
0.86
(0.02)

(0.86)
0.83
(0.03)

(0.83)
0.98
0.15

1.32
(1.81)
(0.49)

1.81
(1.87)
(0.06)

1.87
(1.83)
0.04

1.83
(1.76)
0.07

1.76
(2.08)
(0.32)

2.08
(2.34)
(0.26)

0.41
(0.56)
(0.15)

0.56
(0.58)
(0.02)

0.58
(0.57)
0.01

0.57
(0.55)
0.02

0.55
(0.65)
(0.10)

0.65
(0.73)
(0.08)

(2.39)
3.28
0.89

(3.28)
3.39
0.11

(3.39)
3.32
(0.07)

(3.32)
3.19
(0.13)

(3.19)
3.77
0.58

(3.77)
4.24
0.47

(2.73)
(0.37)
1.49
(1.61)

(3.80)
(0.53)
2.73
(1.60)

(4.71)
(0.69)
3.80
(1.60)

(4.92)
(0.79)
4.71
(1.00)

(5.08)
(0.84)
4.92
(1.00)

(4.31)
(0.92)
5.08
(0.15)

3.62

9.02

12.74

14.37

17.16

Page 1 of 2

2014
20.94 Gross profit
0.92 less Expenses
21.86 less Interest on debt*Note1
10.48 Tax
(11.77) less Depreciation
(1.29) Inc for taxation
Tax
(0.98)
1.10
0.12

20.67

2015 onwards
36.98
(12.43)
(0.32)
24.23
(0.93)
23.30
6.99

=(24.23+6.99)/5.9%
292.15

Net Cash Flow


Discounted at 5.9%
Using current yield

3.62
0.9443
3.42

Total Value
No of shares

256.73
27.146

Per share

259.42
0.9208
3.33

Total Value
No of shares

219.20
27.146
$

12.74
0.8420
10.73

14.37
0.7951
11.43

17.16
0.7508
12.88

20.67
0.7090
14.65

292.15
0.6695
195.58

9.46

Net Cash Flow


Discounted at 8.6%

Per share

9.02
0.8917
8.04

3.65
0.8479
7.65

4.62
0.7807
9.95

5.47
0.7189
10.33

5.83
0.6620
11.36

=(24.23+6.99)/8.6%
200.43
0.561295064
163.98

5.92
0.6096
12.60

8.07

Asset
Net PPE
Acc Rec
Inventory
Prepaid Exp
Acc Pay
Acc Exp

*Notes
1. Debt 50% of Asset = 12.35*50% = 6.175
2 Minimal/uncertain growth rate. Assume level of cash flow remains at 2015 level

Page 2 of 2

2014
4.31
11.77
2.34
-0.73
-1.1
-4.24
12.35