ROK-U.S.

Strategic Forum 2016 at CSIS

U.S.-ROK Alliance: Looking Ahead to the New Administration and Beyond
Opening Session
- Amb. Sihyung Lee: welcoming address by the Korea Foundation President
- Amb. Richard Armitage: welcoming address by the CSIS President
- Amb. Ho-young Ahn: call to discuss the importance of the bilateral alliance
between Korea and US
- Amb. Mark Lippert: call to discuss the deterrence strategies to better counter
North Korean threat and Chinas growing influence in East Asia
Keynote Session moderated by Dr. Victor Cha
- Amb. Christopher Hill: need to deal with the North to disarm nuclear arsenal by
stronger alliance between Korea and US, need to deal with China together
(needs to be a three party agreement)
-> THAAD should be implemented despite speculation on its function
-> good track record of cooperation between the Capitol Hill and White House
for policy/sanctions on North Korea -> the Senate possibly imposing secondary
sanction on NK (pressuring China to sever connections between Chinese
companies working with NK), is not likely to happen due to lack of international
coalition -> trade with China has great implications for the US economy
- Dr. Sung-joo Han: 'Grand bargain' by Trump to China would not be well met
with Korea and Japan
-> if the Leftist government comes into power in Korea after the Park
administration, it would come with mixed blessing -> President Noh spent more
on defense than any other presidents
-> FTA is at stake in challenges with NK
Session I: North Korean Challenges moderated by Dr. Young-kwan Yoon
- Dr. Dongho Jo: China establishes economic stability in NK -> therefore, China
needs to come to the table for sanctions against NK
- Ms. Insun Kang: covered Trump rallies for months (Trump's book excerpt: "if
the US maintains as the policeman of the world, some countries need to pay for
it")
-> parallel with Bush administration which was purported to focus on domestic
front yet did more in foreign policy and international relations after 9/11
- Dr. Kang Choi: need to increase discussion on neutralizing nuclear arsenal,
need to enhance offensive and defensive military capabilities in SK ($2.5 billion
on defense each year but not enough to deter threat), need to mobilize
international coalition (approach EU and UN in a meaningful way)

- Dr. Victor Cha: China will not go further than stoping coal imports from NK ->
China would not act (in their interest) to destabilize the NK regime -> thus, the
secondary sanction from the US is important
-> NK under Kim Jong-un will continue political, military provocations to
'overthrow' Park's administration -> provocation is likely to happen again in the
upcoming Janurary inauguration
-> source of American power: immigration (rejuvenates the country by
constantly bringing in new ideas), alliances (not just commitments but also
amplifiers of American power in the world)
-> window of NK provocations has narrowed overtime from Kim Il-sung to Kim
Jung-il and to Kim Jong-un
- Mr. Robert Carlin: five years of Kim Jong-un has not yet to show his true
intentions -> need to understand the nuclear threat in the full context of NK's
economic/political plan
-> SK is no longer one of the 'Asian tigers of rapidly growing economy (due to
aging population, deceleration in innovation, and being on the verge of nervous
breakdown of political system)
- Mr. Bruce Klinger: most likely that progressive candidate would come into
power in SK after either the resignation or impeachment of Park and it would be
bad for the US-ROK alliance
-> rhetoric from the Trump campaign has brought fear of abandonment by allies
(which is in years of making due to cuts in defense spending bringing up doubts
whether the US has sustained militaristic capabilities to protect its allies)
-> abandoning third party talks is to give China the immunity to US laws ->
"China has been part of the problem, not solution." (i.e. taking stance in defense
of NK in UN security council)
Question on sanctions (double-edged sword: market economy vs. state
enterprises)
- sanctions must specifically target state enterprises and not the free market ->
if it is not directed right, there would be unintended consequences in NK
economy that would aggravate relations
- marketization in NK is a growing concern -> China's economic, political reform
did not help to diminish tension
-> need conversations with NK (but not the Six Party Talks unless clear
assurance of denuclearization) to leverage -> engagement/diplomacy first and
then, sanctions (flip of a coin: goes both ways)
Session II: ROK-US Alliance and East Asia moderated by Dr. Sung-han Kim
- Dr. Jae-ho Chung: between 1997 to 2003, Koreans viewed China more

favorably whereas since 2004, US has been seen as more favorable in terms of
alliance
-> "peace through strength" as quoted by Trump can only happen in East Asia
through seamless communication between Washington and Seoul
-> the real problem is not on the technical issues regarding the THAAD but on
the Chinese awareness that US-ROK alliance framework cannot be breached
- Dr. Beomchul Shin: regional order in East Asia will be destabilized by the rise
of China and the new American rule based on 'America first policy -> anything
but strong alliance would mitigate American influence in the region which has
widespread implications
-> the future of the bilateral relationship between US and Korea is uncertain
- Dr. Yul Sohn: US-ROK is vital not only for the stability and progress in the
Korean Peninsula but also for American strategic both economic and national
security interest
- Dr. Michael Green: two thirds of Americans are in favor of defending SK if it is
under attack by the North
-> worried about the upcoming Korean election, SMA negotiations
- Dr. Patrick Cronin: need to double down on deterrence (in the current
trajectory when NK has growing capability of launching missiles that can hit the
American hemisphere), need to bring message to the North that being a nuclear
state like Pakistan is not acceptable, need to contain and constrain the North,
need to strengthen readiness in case of direct threat, need for economic
sanctions against North and economic expansion with South, need to better
utilize intelligence between the two nations
- Dr. Van Jackson: China's expansion of 'sphere of influence' (unchallenged in
doing so before because of lack of American interest in those regions
dependent on Chinese commerce)
-> Trump administration would aggravate the current geopolitical climate
-> need to increase military capabilities (especially the development of longrange missiles) with American help, need to resist Chinese attempts to expand
influence, specifically in the Korean Peninsula (strategic inroads by China should
be stopped)
-> who has the baton of military control in the peninsula is not super
consequential in terms of strategy
-> Chinese 'sphere of influence' in South East Asia is ever more aggressive ->
US has not established itself in the South China Sea
Question: is the military/security alliance about NK or East Asia (that
includes other players like China)?
- US-ROK alliance is more than just a military one for deterrence but has a

bigger scope in maintaining American influence and interest in the region

countering China
- self-defense forces in Japan are necessary for deterrence against NK threat ->
I believe this is short-sighted
Session III: The Future of U.S.-ROK Economic, Energy, and Trade
Cooperation moderated by Dr. Stephan Haggard
- Mr. Jong-hoon Kim: China-ROK trade relations needs to be taken into
consideration -> China has a big market for Korean businesses and the Chinese
purchasing power is growing rapidly
-> joint commission between the US and ROK is important to provide constant
channel of communication -> first Korean FTA was with Chile
- Dr. Dukgeun Ahn: trade negotiations between the states must be maintained
and reformed to reflect the current change in globalization
- Mr. James Loi: Trump is surrounded by advisors who very much understand
the importance of trade (i.e. CEO of Boeing, Disney, GM) -> the bilateral trade
deals would most likely be achieved in the new administration
- Dr. Yonghun Jung: discovery of big shale reserves in US and China (except for
SK unfortunately) has huge implications for international relations
-> $3 billion North-East Asian oil hub development by the South is an important
aspect in terms of energy source development -> would promote coal, propane,
uranium, LPG trade and also R&D trade -> US energy exporters can reap the
benefit but not without challenge: US shale prices are high compared to oil
produced in other regions
-> the source of Korean power is in flexibility with trade and it supports the US
interest
- Mr. Scott Miller: dollar (the least dangerous US treasury bond) would rise with
the Trump administration
-> FTA was enacted in untimely time during which both the US and ROK
economy were hit -> despite the fall of TPP, US and Korea has the chance to
improve commercial relations with the start of the FTA implementation
-> as much as steel drived the Industrial Revolution, digital platform would drive
the next chapter in innovation
Question on the liberalization of the Chinese market
- As much as the growth of foreign investment in China with its economic
liberalization, Chinese private investment in Korea (raising the won) would be
inevitable (i.e. Chinese investment in Jeju property)
Question on the Korean economic agenda of the new administration after

Park
- focus on the 'creative economy' agenda is important but not implemented well
-> the next administration should follow the direction
Question on the improvement of TPP
- should not be scrapped completely but rather reformed
- Korea-Japan bilateral in trade is similar to US-Japan bilateral
- complexity of the document (more than 100 page long) raised the opposition
within the US
- if the Trump administration is all about the 'deal', they would realize soon
enough that multi-lateral agreement has different a sort of advantage for the US
than just the bilaterals