o Tracked al quaeda back to Afghanistan o Fighting al quaeda, Taliban forces o Border with Pakistan – very long Very difficult to patrol/ secure due to length o Sharp increase in 2009 in war escalation Focus of US was on Iraq, resources to Afghanistan fell causing escalation Obama decided a surge in 30k troops o Scale of Taliban covers large percentage of southwestern Afghanistan; other militant regions Taliban ran by Kharzi Strong border with Iran (no Taliban spillover); Taliban spillover into Pakistan Border areas show higher percentage of security incidents/ insurgent activities Afghan impacts proliferate into Pakistan instability = Pakistan as “safe haven” for terrorists • Can allow them to target various areas with room to retreat (ie. India) Civilian life within insurgent areas makes life increasingly troublesome IED (improvised explosive device) use dramatically increasing • Can use this as DA ground for neg – need troops to clear o Turn: IEDs usually targeted at troops o Can never be effective enough to diffuse them all • motive > means o Poppy cultivation US tries to eliminate these poppy fields • Obama administration advocated efforts to eradicate poppy fields • Destroys profit, local economy – civilian livelihood o Obama admin decided to find a substitute crop & police heroin trade Taliban can use poppy profit to purchase arms Helmand province one of the largest opium producers Non-opium provinces uncoincidently have a lower crime rate o Allied efforts Confusing jurisdiction – multiple countries policing each province Ambiguous leadership DoD complexity causing transparent strategy How will US withdrawal affect the other countries’ police presences? Complex withdrawal o Civilian casualties Human rights “hearts & minds” war – similar to Vietnam war • Guts US support Drones keep targeting weddings • ISAF-responsible attacks directly influence other civilian casualty activity • = more civilian casualties • August 09 – US recognizes the problem of civilian casualties o PIC out of drones, etc. o “remove v. reform” o ASNF (Afghan National Security Force) goals Goal - 240k troops by 2013 (enough to sustain) Obama admin – start withdrawal by 2011 • Immediate withdrawal (premature by ASNF terms) could potentially leave Afghanistan unable to defend itself Obama strategy dictates the withdrawal mechanism – dictates the timetable Have to reduce presence Condition CP • Withdraw on the condition that the ASNF meets the designated troop level to sustain itself o Kandahar 2nd largest opium producer, 2nd largest city Cultural center for the Pashtun people • Ethnic group originated out of Taliban Heavy warlord activity • No real central gov. • Economic inequity – black market, corruption • US wanted to kick Taliban out o Coin = counter insurgency o Trouble isolating the Pashtuns Requires “infiltration” to integrate • Pashtun warlords in gov. Alienation of Pashtuns o Issue of corrupt gov. v. no gov. o Similar to Iraq issue – corruption > no gov ? o Karzai gov. not able to negotiate with corrupt gov. o US withdrawal may allow a coalition of gov. Corrupt but o/w no gov. o Complex insurgency and complex emergency Impossible to distinguish between insurgent & civilian o Withdrawal timeline Proposed withdrawal by 2011 Conflicting ANSF timeline • CP ground o Ground One core affirmative – pullout, reduce bases • As long as US wins, war cannot be won • Troops are counter productive o IED casualties o Drone accidents • Presence – options for reform • Adv. Ground o US pullout = buildup of Afghan force (US “crutch”) o Tradeoff – better troops placed elsewhere • Military presence o Purpose – power (HEG), security, stability o Opposite effect Superpower conflict - ie. Pakistan Invasion • Superpower intervention • *Russia has had Afghanistan before with no nuclear escalation* Not forward deploy troops = no conflict b/c no intervention o Lithium deposits Afghanistan cannot mine it – illiteracy, no gov., etc. • If mining was available, could replace opium profits = success o Other things US counternarcotics aff Military presence consists of bases and troops UAV/drones present PMCs, mercenaries, etc. used (blackwater co.) • Troop withdrawal = increase in PMC use • Allows obama to stick to withdrawal timeline while keeping the war going with PMCs o Take PMCs with? • PMC use worse/better than US military • 200-hamburger-guy-who-shoots-Iraqis card (lolz) o Police presence PMCs topical under “police” label? • Counter Narcotic Administration • CIA Specify a type of police presence to decrease o Neg “jist” Unstable infrastructure DA Opium economy DA Taliban DA Pakistani conflict DA “COIN” DA • clear, hold, build US weak image = heg loss Timeframe CP Condition CP • ANSF troop goal Kritik args – Pashtun people, capitalism (opium profit), security, etc. Superpower DA IEDs, UAV accidents, terrorism DAs