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Poverty
Review of Poverty Methodology
Pakistan has determined its poverty line and
poverty estimation methodology in 2001 based on
the consumption data of 1998-99. Headcount
poverty in Pakistan is estimated using Pakistan
Household Integrated Economic Survey data on
the basis of food energy intake (FEI) method as is
the case with many developing countries.
Planning Commission estimated official poverty
line at Rs. 637.54 per person per month at 199899 prices on the basis of a threshold level of
consuming minimum 2350 kcal/day. The poverty
lines thereafter, updated for each successive
survey period to incorporate the inflation impact
between two survey periods. This methodology
uses 1998-99 consumption basket and regress
overall expenditure of the lowest 60 percent of
population on minimum calories (2350 kcal/day).
The normative procedure of calculating poverty
continued till 2007-08. However, the government
demonstrated the difficulty in presenting lower
official poverty estimates of around 17 per cent in
the wake of global financial crisis and domestic
economic meltdown. The figure of 12.4 per cent
for the year 2010-11 furthered scepticism. The
data and the mainstream narrative on poverty
reduction was extensively contested. It highlights
the fact that data on poverty are inherently
political as well as technical, so any proof of
progress presented as official needs to be
defensible and verifiable, and be accepted widely
by stakeholders.
The government formed a Technical Committee
to review the official methodology in 2012 and its
deliberations tried to seek the necessary buy-in
from key stakeholders, in particular from those
outside government. The Committee after several
Afgha nistan
Ba ngla desh
40
Bhuta n
India
30
Sri La nka
20
Ma ldives
Nepa l
10
Pa kista n
2012
2013
2010
2011
2008
2009
2006
2007
2004
2005
2002
2003
2000
2001
1.
Poverty Headcount Review for 2013-14
using new Methodology
284
Poverty
Table-1: Poverty Rates back-casted (Using CBN Method)
Year
National
1998-99
57.9
2001-02
64.3
2004-05
51.7
2005-06
50.4
2007-08
44.1
2010-11
36.8
2011-12
36.3
2013-14
29.5
Urban
44.5
50.0
37.3
36.6
32.7
26.2
22.8
18.2
Rural
63.4
70.2
58.4
57.4
49.7
42.1
43.1
35.6
285
2008-09
65.2
17.3
49.3
57.0
13.2
43.2
81.0
20.0
51.2
68.0
23.2
60.5
90.7
40.1
78.9
2010-11
62.3
13.9
46.5
53.4
11.0
40.0
79.9
14.9
49.5
64.8
19.2
57.0
89.3
37.2
76.7
2012-13
56.0
10.1
40.8
46.9
8.4
34.7
75.5
10.9
44.6
57.1
10.0
49.1
85.8
29.0
71.9
2014-15
54.6
9.3
38.8
43.9
6.3
31.5
75.7
10.5
43.2
57.7
10.2
49.1
84.5
37.4
71.0
Punjab
Sindh
KPK
Balochistan
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-18.0%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-26.9%
-28.9%
-32.2%
-40%
-45%
-39.8%
286
Poverty
Standard of Living
Health
Education
Weights
1/6 = 16.66%
1/8 = 12.5%
1/24 = 4.17%
1/6 = 16.67%
1/18 = 5.56%
1/18 = 5.56%
1/18 = 5.56%
1/21 = 4.76%
1/21 = 4.76%
1/42 = 2.38%
1/42 = 2.38%
1/21 = 4.76%
1/21 = 4.76%
1/21 = 4.76%
1/21 = 4.76%
287