Jade 1

Taylor Jade
Mathew Arndt
1040 Statistics
20 Nov 2016

Skittles Report
Part II
Intro
As a class, we decided to analyze and organize the data from 36 different bags of 2.17 oz.
Skittles. In this section, were dealing with confidence intervals from our previously assessed
data.
A confidence interval is how certain we are, within a calculated margin of error, that the
statistic being measured (to estimate the populations parameters) will be contained within the
studied interval. The purpose of it is to estimate the true population proportion and true average
of Skittles through the sample proportion and sample mean.

Data
Here is some of the data that we collected in Part I. For Part II, I will be using the sample
proportions and the individual bag totals to find the confidence intervals.

Bag #
5 Num
Sum
5 Num
Sum
5 Num
Sum
5 Num
Sum
5 Num

orang
Bag
yellow e
green purple Total
1
11
9
18
7
15
60 =12
medQ3maxs=4.4
min-7 Q1-9
11
14.5
18
7
=12.
2
10
8
18
8
19
63 6
medQ3maxs=5.4
min-8 Q1-9
10
14.5
19
6
=11.
3
11
8
13
6
18
56 2
Q1medQ3maxs=4.6
min-6 8.5
11
14.5
18
6
=12.
4
11
6
19
9
16
61 2
Q1medmaxs=5.2
min-6 8.5
11
Q3-15 19
6
5
13
9
15
7
16
60 =12
min-7 Q1-10 medQ3maxs=3.8
red

Jade 2
Sum

13
6

5 Num
Sum

11
min-7

7
5 Num
Sum
8
5 Num
Sum
9
5 Num
Sum
5 Num
Sum

19
8
17
medQ3max10
14.5
19

63

18
7
18
medQ3max11
14.5
18

62

19
7
17
medQ3max12
15.5
19

63

17
6
17
medQ3max10
13.5
17

59

10

17
max18
17
max20

61

18
7
15
medmax10
Q3-14 18

59

15
6
16
medQ3max11
13.5
16

56

21
7
18
medQ3max12
16.5
21

66

18
8
14
medQ3max11
14.5
18

59

18
7
18
medmax10
Q3-14 18
7
17
7
17

61

Q1-9

Q1-9

Q1-9
Q19.5

10
min-6

11

61

12
min-7

10

16
7
20
medQ3max11
15.5
20

11
min-7

Q1-8

18
6
5 Num
medSum
min-6 Q1-8
10
Q3-14
12
11
9
20
8
5 Num
Q1medQ3Sum
min-8 9.5
11
15.5
13
5 Num
Sum

10
min-7

14
5 Num
Sum
15

16

Q19.5

11
min-8

17

Q18.5

12
min-7

5 Num
Sum

Q18.5

11
min-6

5 Num
Sum

5 Num
Sum

10

Q19.5

10

min-7
18
12

8
Q18.5

16

10
min-8

14.5

65

60

7
=12.
2
s=5.7
2
=12.
6
s=5.0
3
=12.
4
s=5.3
2
=12.
6
s=5.3
2
=11.
8
s=4.9
7
=12.
2
s=5.1
2
=13
s=5.2
4
=11.
8
s=4.5
5
=11.
2
s=4.3
2
=13.
2
s=6.1
4
=11.
8
s=4.2
7
=12.
2
s=5.4
0
=12

Jade 3
5 Num
Sum

min-7
19

5 Num
Sum

11
min-7

20

Q19.5

med12
10

Q1-9

10

Q314.5

max17

22
7
19
medQ3max11
16.5
22

20
6
medmin-6 Q1-8
10
Q3-15
21
13
8
19
10
5 Num
Q1medSum
min-8 10.5
13
Q3-16

17
max20
15
max19

62

19
Q3max13.5
19
6
15
Q3max13.5
16

61

17
5
18
medQ3max12
13.5
18

61

17
6
18
medQ3max11
14.5
18

61

5 Num
Sum

22

17
5 Num
Q1medSum
min-7 8.5
10
23
11
7
16
5 Num
Q1medSum
min-6 8.5
11
24
5 Num
Sum

10

min-5
25

5 Num
Sum

Q18.5

11
min-6

26

12

Q18.5

med-9

Q3-14

17
medmin-7 Q1-9
11
28
11
9
18
5 Num
Q1medSum
min-8 9.5
11
29
10
8
19
5 Num
Q1medSum
min-7 8.5
10

min-8
27

19

5 Num
Sum

Q18.5

11

5 Num
Sum

min-8
31

10

9
Q19.5
10

55

61

17
maxQ3-14 17
8
14
Q3max14.5
18
7
16
Q3max14.5
19

59

16
8
17
medmax11
Q3-14 17

61

11

65

17
max19

5 Num
Sum

30

69

19

16

60

60

61

s=5
=13.
8
s=6.3
8
=12.
4
s=5.8
6
=13
s=4.3
0
=12.
2
s=5.4
5
=11
s=4.5
3
=12.
2
s=5.4
5
=12.
2
s=5.1
7
=12.
2
s=5.3
6
=11.
8
s=5.0
2
=12
s=4.0
6
=12
s=5.2
4
=12.
2
s=4.0
9
=12.
2

Jade 4
5 Num
Sum

min-6
32

5 Num
Sum
33

34
5 Num
Sum
35
5 Num
Sum

10

Q314.5

max19

23
5
15
medQ3max10
16.5
23

61

14

63

min-8

Q1-11

16
8
17
medQ3max14
15.5
17
20
7
med10
Q3-15
17
7
med11
Q3-14
19
6
med13
Q3-16
648
253
29.47 11.51
%
%

59

min-5

5 Num
Sum

med10

Q1-8
Q17.5

10
min-7
11

8
Q18.5
8

min-7 Q1-9
36
13
9
5 Num
Q1Sum
min-6 9.5
Total
395
299
17.96 13.60
Total %
%
%

14
max20
17
max17
18
max19
604
27.47
%

60

65

s=5.2
2
=12.
2
s=7.0
5
=12.
6
s=4.3
4
=11.
8
s=5.3
1
=12
s=4.8
0
=13
s=5.6
1

2199
100%

Process- Proportion Confidence Intervals

To estimate the true proportion of each color,

I first found the margin of error, E.

I started with z sub-alpha over 2. I solved it by drawing a curve to map out how much area we
were using. Our given level of confidence, C, is 99%. Alpha is 1-C, or 1-.99 = .01. Then I
divided alpha, , by 2, or .01/2 = .005.

Jade 5

I added C + /2 to get the area under the curve, and then plugged that area into my invNorm
function. (To obtain a z-score, the mean, , will be 0 and the standard deviation, , will be 1.)

The z-score for all colors at C=.99 is 2.576.

Next, I needed to solve for the square root of p-hat times 1-p-hat divided by n.

P-hat represents the sample proportion, and is different for the ratio of each of the colors. n is the
sample size, and it is constant for all our proportion problems: n = 2199, the number of Skittles
within all thirty-six 2.17 oz. bags.
With all the variables explained, I plugged them in, for the following results:

Jade 6
(.09757, .13263)
E = .01753
(.11717, .15483)
E = .01883
(.15851, .20069)
E = .02109
(.25018, .29922)
E = .02452
(.26966, .31974)
E = .02504

This means that 99% of the found intervals will contain the population proportion, .

Process- Mean Confidence Intervals

To estimate the true mean of Skittles in all bags, I first had to identify which sampling
distribution I would need to use. Because the population standard deviation () is unknown, and
because the sample size (n) is over 30 (n = 36), the sampling distribution will need to be a
Students T.

I first found the margin of error, E.

Jade 7
I started with t sub-alpha over 2, and solved to find the t-score using nearly the same steps as
with the proportion problemI first found the area under the curve using (1-C)/2 + C. The
difference is that with a Students T, instead of only plugging in the area, I also needed to know
the degrees of freedom, or n-1:
36-1 = 35 = df
Then I plugged them both into my InvT function.

The t-score is 2.030.

Next, I found the sample standard deviation, s. I listed the number of Skittles in each bag
in my calculator and found s to be 2.76.
Last, I found the sample mean for the Skittles by dividing 2199 Skittles (x) by 36 bags
(n). The sample mean, , is 61.08.

Jade 8
The confidence interval for the mean, at C = .95, is:
(60.15, 62.01)
This means that 95% of all intervals between 60.15 and 62.01 will contain the population
mean, .

Reflection
I think the hardest part about this assignment was interpreting the instructions. The last
part of the project we did, I lost points because I misunderstood. I overcomplicated things, and so
now Im worried that I oversimplified things. I almost solved the confidence interval using zscores instead of t-scores. I also had some anxiety trying to solve for the sample standard
deviation, especially when I realized all our examples had some form of it given to us already. I
just went with what made sense to me, which would be the same numbers we were dealing with
to find the sample mean/how many Skittles were in each bag.
I noticed that when the amount of a color of Skittles increasedfrom green, to yellow, to
red, to purple, to orangethat the margin of error increased as well (.0175, .0188, .0211, .0245, .
0250). For the orange, there was a 5% range in possibilities! That means that as the margin of
error increased, the precision decreased. To make the numbers more precise, we needed to
increase the sample size, or decrease the confidence level (which is not advised). The estimation
for the mean had a smaller margin of error, and so was more precise in how many Skittles could
be found in each bag. (It also had a smaller level of confidence, which increased its precision!)
I found constructing the proportion confidence intervals to be much easier than the mean
confidence interval. This wasnt always the case in the class. Now that I understand the purpose
of proportions, they make a lot more sense to me, and the mean an almost less-common statistic.
The processes were both similar; solving for z-scores and t-scores are a lot alike. However,
needing to find the sample standard deviation for the standard error part of the margin of error
made the single problem much more complex.