TO: Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State

FROM: Miranda Penaloza, Campaign Consultant

DATE: Saturday, November 26, 2016
SUBJECT: Presidential Campaign Analysis

The most current exit polling data and campaign analysis have become available to evaluate how
our campaign may have worked better to achieve success. I seek to present here some
information that will help to demonstrate the areas of improvement the campaign and further
movements may need to address in order to reach their goals. Based on the most current
research, by modifying the approach in reaching certain demographics in North Carolina and
Wisconsin and combining it with a more issues-based use of our media campaign, I believe our
current campaign could have had the advantage it needed. Because this campaign was to follow
in the steps of a president that shared our views and ideals, we failed to foresee the roadblocks
that only came up once all was decided. In other words, we relied on the shadow cast by the large
triumph of the previous campaign without pushing the boundary to push the shadow line further
to gain more support. I propose the following findings to avoid the same outcomes for future
endeavors in any like-minded campaign.

Swing State Approach

It is understood that this election year turned some states into swing states until the last minute.
After further analysis, it is clear that we missed outreach to young voters, as well as the more
predominant racial demographic in both Wisconsin and North Carolina. Our movement focused
on detailing the errors of our counterpart without solidifying the base that supported the Obama
campaign in both 2008 and 2012.

Young voters of about 20-34 years old average 20% of the population in both Wisconsin and
North Carolina.1 Targeting and appealing to these voters could have driven our campaign further
into the path away from a businessman for the White House. In both states, about 30% of these
voters are college educated2. For future campaign and movements, establishing a strong base at
local community colleges or university campuses can close the gap between the reliable older
voter and the interested but misrepresented younger voter.
According to Michael Regan with PBS, the voter turnout for this election year relied heavily on
voters staying home, not necessarily voting for the opposition. In fact, exit numbers show that
not only did Wisconsin voter turn-out drop 3% but overall less Latino, Black and women voters
turned out in support of our movement, particularly compared to the Obama campaign rates of
20123. However, the opposition did not receive a significant amount of more popular votes than
Romney in the previous election2. Considering this information, addressing a more youth
friendly campaign that targets voters, especially those eager to participate in the system, will
better benefit our efforts in the future.
In addition, it is important to consider racial demographics in these swing states as well to better
understand their voting outcome. According to Regan, preliminary national exit polls released
in the days after the election showed the contest was divided by race..., among other factors, but
our campaign rendered lower numbers than expected4. Considering the success of previous
Democrat-led campaigns, it was easy to believe that supporters would flock to our side come
1 Fact Finder. ONLINE. 2012. Census Bureau. Available:
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF [19 Nov 2016].

2
Ibid.
3
Michael D. Regan, "What does voter turnout tell us about the 2016 election?," PBS, November 20, 2016.

election day, but that was not the case. Even if we had the support of most minorities in these
states, Wisconsin has a White population of 86% and North Carolina, 68%, both majorities that
also need to be accounted for and considered even in states that typically swing in our direction5.
The take-away is to focus on voters that are expected and unexpected alike so come election-day,
the turn-out is not questionable.

Social Media Campaign

One of the best ways to reach the public is through the media. Public opinion relies heavily on
the instant motions of how media portrays information and our campaign needed to take every
step necessary to take advantage of this phenomenon. In 2008, Obamas campaign used the Hope
posters as a way to intrigue the young voting base into their movement and this generated a great
turnout of young voters involved in the political system6. This grassroots-style of campaigning
brought about a different feel to the elections that we did not see in 2012. In analyzing campaign
ads from the Romney/Obama campaign, it stands out that both parties primarily face and talk
about the issues most valuable to them. In Revenge or Love of Country, Romney goes as far as
defacing a statement from Obama that later became a token phrase for people to go out and vote-

4
Ibid.
5
Fact Finder.
6
Bergson, Zach. "From hope to hopeless: experts not expecting replay of 2008's iconic campaign art for
2012." Hill, July 17, 2012, 20. Opposing Viewpoints in Context (accessed November 16, 2016).

to exercise their rights7. Although our goal was to follow in the steps of great success with a new
light, we failed to implement the strategies in social media that preceded our movement.
More often than not, our focus lay upon the inconsistencies of the opposite party, the inadequacy
of their experience, and all with an air of superiority beyond our success. Although political
knowledge overall is not high, people generally rely on cue-givers to make rational decisions
about their government and often times these cues are taken from information readily available
online8. By having a more positivity driven campaign that revolved more around the issues we
would resolve, instead of the problems the opposition would cause if elected, our ratings and
cue-giver standing would be much more significant. Overall, since political attitudes change
continuously, it is our job to maintain the standard and reliable position the public can depend on.

Refocusing our efforts on a more positive-led campaign and being more diligent in our analysis
of previous census data to better understand demographics in key swing states, along with taking
our movement forward and beyond our precedent, success was well within our reach. I hope that
future campaigns may find this information helpful and useful in their efforts to step through the
majority vote. This campaign has been a learning experience if nothing else.

7
Revenge or Love of Country <www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShdiYQ1EHvA> Accessed 20 Nov 2016.
8
Greenberg, Edward S., Page, Benjamin I., The Struggle for Democracy (Pearson Education, Inc., 2014),
159.

Bibliography
Bergson, Zach. "From hope to hopeless: experts not expecting replay of 2008's iconic campaign
art for 2012." Hill, July 17, 2012, 20. Opposing Viewpoints in Context (accessed November 16,
2016).
Fact Finder. ONLINE. 2012. Census Bureau. Available:
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF [19
Nov 2016].
Greenberg, Edward S., Page, Benjamin I., The Struggle for Democracy (Pearson Education, Inc.,
2014), 159.
Michael D. Regan, "What does voter turnout tell us about the 2016 election?," PBS, November
20, 2016.
Revenge or Love of Country <www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShdiYQ1EHvA> Accessed 20
Nov 2016.