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In Aug 2015 CLSA came out with a report titled Wish you were listed, Patanjali Ayurveda and
summarized the threat it presented to listed counterparts. Moreover, lately Credit Suisse, IIFL
Research, MOSL, Nomura, etc., have over the last 2 months came with various reports stating
the obvious i.e. PAL taking the fight on the ground and beating the really big guys at their own
turf.
Product Catalogue
brand ambassadors i.e. Hema Malini and Olympics Medalist Sushil Kumar, for its Biscuits and
Ghee respectively.
Smart pricing:
The Company sources products directly from farmers and cuts on middlemen to boost profits.
Hence, they are able to reduce their raw material procurement cost and are able to produce goods
at a much cheaper price. To promote Ayurveda and Health, simple packaging can be a very
effective way of promotion as well as cost cutting on packaging and advertising. With a
natural look (especially with leaves and herbs), consumers get a feeling of health and wellness
and they are attracted to buy the product.
Traditional FMCG companies are highly profit oriented. In fact, the RoE of key FMCG
companies are:
Affordability factor of PAL products is one of the reasons for popularity. As Baba Ramdev said,
the purpose of Patanjali is Upkar and not Vyapar, hence their products are reasonably priced.
Further, such pricing strategy will surely help Patanjali in making inroads, especially in the
countryside and the middle class or lower middle class population, given that their products are
close substitutes to the consumer goods produced by major FMCG companies. Penetration in the
rural market shall be critical for PAL to be able to take hold of lions share in the consumer
market.
Swadeshi Advantage
The Government of India is pitching in for greater economic activity and the market is ever
expanding, the ambitious plans of Patanjali are in consonance with both Make Indian and Make
in India, giving it a stronger moral pedestal to stand on as compared to as compared to the
MNCs. Moreover, while big wigs like ITC and HUL primarily produce western household
products, Patanjalis product line in mostly Ayurveda and even its Shampoos and Toothpaste are
produced from natural ingredients hinting at a healthier lifestyle. In short, its product appeal to
Indian Nationalism and a sense of Swadeshi, which might help it in getting an even greater
market share. Even among the small number of competitors for Ayurveda Products, Patanjali has
a definite advantage given the popular face of Ramdev.
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Product Portfolio:
The process is simple. Top-selling products across brands are picked up from the market and
then similar products are developed based on herbal formulations under Patanjali brands. Mostly,
they are replicas of successful products of multinational companies.
Current positioning vis--vis its competitors
The total turnover of large FMCG companies in India was ~INR 80,000 cr., in FY15 and
expected to hit INR 85,000 cr., in FY16. 60% of total turnover is pretty much dominated by
MNCs and balance by large Indian corporates. All these Indian corporate are, lets say, OLD
MONEY and who are conglomerates or being in business for long time and not threatened by
any local incumbent for a long long time. In fact, only threat ever happens is when some outside
giant comes into play.
The following table summarizes revenue of key players:
^
Amount in INR crores, * Nestle Results are calendar year, ~ Excluding ITC Source: Axis
Capital, IIFL Research, TFI Research
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PAL looks like a shining light in the slow growing FMCG space with the company expected to
double its revenue every 2 years i.e. from INR 5000 cr., in FY16 to INR 10,000 cr in FY18 to hit
INR 20,000 cr by FY20. This growth is no ordinary achievement, its unprecedented for a
Consumer Sector / Staples companies. I have been a consumer sector analyst and for a company
like this we would have valued at multiples twice that for HUL.
Note: PAL valued at 50% premium to HULs implied M.Cap to Sales valuation for FY18.
This makes Baba Ramdevs company more valuable than Nestle India and pretty much
come after HUL.
IMPACT ON KEY PLAYERS
Recently, Credit Suisse (CS) downgraded Colgate to neutral on 11 Jan 2016 According to CS,
Colgate is facing a stiff competition in the dental cream category by PAL as despite fairly limited
distribution the herbal brand enjoys a 4-5% market share. It feels that PAL share may cross
double digits in toothpaste category over the next few years after it expands distribution in 2016.
In fact, CS has cut earnings estimate of Colgate for FY18 by 3-7% due to competition from PAL.
In fact, IIFL research states that large FMCG companies will be hit anywhere between 2% of
sales to 8% of sales. This number is quite significant from large company perspective as growing
at 9% to 11% is considering a HUGE ACHIEVEMENT and if this growth is taken off; and PAL
growing at 41% CAGR then it can provide a huge threat to large companies and be a boon for
customers.
What will make the brand tick in future?
New products pipeline strong and innovative
Patanjali has a separate team for new product development. The company has been able to
leave a mark owing to the pace and frequency of new product launches. Its robust R&D
Department has churned out new products in quick time and lower costs. For instance,
Patanjali started working on its own brand of instant noodles post the Maggi issue and
within a period of 3 months it is now ready with its own instant noodles. The product has
been sent for approval and is expected to be launched within a period of one month (we got
a chance to taste the product and really liked it). The company has a robust and innovative
pipeline of new products with some set for launch soon and some others at R&D phase.
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The company has been doing well till now because it has been into a franchise model and the fan
following of Baba Ramdev has helped reach the company such heights. But this model and the
current target market (the fan base) is on the point of reaching saturation. This is why the
company has decided to enter the traditional retail model. To succeed in this sphere, the company
will have to change its policy. With such stiff competition, the company will have to move
towards traditional mediums of communication, with more focus on TV advertisements.
The company also needs to pay more attention towards its social media assets- generate more
user activity. These assets can be of great value especially to connect to the youth, something that
Patanjali has not been able to do so well till now.
CONCLUSION
Ramdev has political leanings, but that does not by itself take away the fact that he is serving the
Nation by promoting products which are made in India, and seek to revive the culture, the way of
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living of India and the fact remains that Patanjali seems to be involved more in making available
Indian products at a low price than becoming a business giant, even if it did have an ambition to
become a business giant, there is nothing wrong with that.
One may also argue that Patanjali is going to face tough competition from specialized companies
but till now it has shown enough business acumen to get an unprecedented market share, and
over the last 2 years or so, Patanjali Products have started appearing increasingly on the shelves
of Retail Stores, showing that it has definitely entered the market and is here to stay. The
argument that his opponents use, that Ramdev has become a businessman, is pure rhetoric,
entrepreneur skills, is exactly what India needs for becoming a superpower, if at all, he has
developed such skills, he deserves praise for that and there is nothing in Indian Culture which
bars someone from possessing and making use of such skills.
One of the most point, we want drive home is that well managed home grown enterprise is pretty
much capable of being a strong competitor. We would urge small companies, manufacturers, to
work in organized manner and take the MAKE IN INDIA move forward and create disruption
agents.