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Decision Making
9
Entrepreneurship
56
Ethics
59
Your Customer is Not Just King. He or She Can Be Your VC, Too!
John Mullins
Marketing
15
Values, Values on the wall, Just do business and forget them all:
Wells Fargo, Volkswagen and others in the hall
Avi Liran and Simon Dolan
Branding
Politics
22
65
Lifestyle
24
Governance
69
Future of Work
33
Business Model
72
Technology
Innovation
40
75
45
80
Supply Chain
Risk Sharing in Joint Product Development Lessons
from 787 Dreamliner
Yao Zhao
Management
50
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Ref. 5009: It is only with the heart that one can see rightly. What is
to honour his lifes work with the Big Pilots Watch Edition Le Petit
Exupry put them into the mouth of his little prince, he probably
knew already that we need only turn our hearts to the stars in all
the back of the case. In the same way that Saint- Exupry pilot,
poet, and pioneer gifted the world a story that tells of human
but was also inspired by flying to write his literary masterpiece and
I WC . E N G I N E E R E D FO R M E N .
J O I N T H E CO N V E R SATI O N : # B _O R I G I N A L
I WC S C H A F F H AU S E N B O U T I Q U E S: PA R I S | LO N D O N | R O M E | M O S COW | N E W YO R K | B E I J I N G | D U B A I | H O N G KO N G | G E N E VA | ZU R I C H
I WC .CO M
REAL
ISSUES
DONT
COME IN
BOXES
O
THINK
OUTSIDE
THEM
EXECUTIVE GLOBAL
MASTERS IN MANAGEMENT.
THE LSE ALTERNATIVE TO
AN MBA.
lse.ac.uk/egmim
RANKED #2 IN THE WORLD FOR
SOCIAL SCIENCE & MANAGEMENT
embarked on a revisionist agenda with the help of her husband who hit
the campaign trail apologising for the excesses of his regime and trying
to distance her from those excesses. Her email debacle and FBI investigations, her misadventures in Libya and Iraq, made her the most unsafe
candidate in the running for the Democratic ticket. These and the fact
that she is one of the most disliked candidates in recent times did not
deter her from believing that she could win this thing. With the mainstream media behind her, they believed they could make all these go
away. They gave her a whole lift up and went about a character assassination of anyone who stood in her way. Her main message in the end
was the Trump tapes which were released by her media partners during
the Presidential debates. But she could not keep the skeletons in her
cupboard jangling louder and louder.
She could not see beyond what she wanted. This is 2016, and the mood
has changed. The MSM no longer monopolise the news. The Internet is
all pervasive. Wikileaks is still leaking. The poor people also have eyes
and ears and they can read too. Poor people are fed up. After many years
of recession, robbed of their homes and livelihood, they felt left out,
they wanted change. They recall that the Clintons did not do anything
for them, and apologies were simply not going to do it this time around.
Hillary was blind to all these, standing opposite Donald Trump, she believed that the presidency was hers to take. She was wrong. In the words of
Niccolo Machiavelli, He who blinded by ambition, raises himself to a position whence he cannot mount higher, must fall with the greatest loss.
+LOODU\&OLQWRQFDPHFUDVKLQJGRZQ6KHORVWWRDQRSSRQHQWOHVVTXDOLHG
than her, who throughout this campaign had been ridiculed by the media as
inept, racist, sexist you name it. Hillary Clinton would have done better if
VKH KDGUHWLUHGWRWKDWJORULHGSODFHJLYLQJVXFFRXUWRWKHSRRUDQGDEXVHG
women, she would have been a welcome champion. Lets hope she will
accept the message from the American people with grace they said it once,
they have said it again, they just dont want President Hillary.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
Aargau is a canton of technology, energy and culture. It offers an overall package that is
unbeatable. Quite rightly, Aargau has three As in its name: The well-known rating agency,
Standard & Poors, rates it with Triple A, the best rating for company locations.
1. Cost advantages
Below-average tax rate, moderate wages and low
real estate and property prices.
2. Perfectly developed in the heart of Europe
The canton of Aargau is situated in the strongest
Swiss economic region, in between Zurich, Basel,
Bern and Lucerne.
3. Concentrated high-tech know-how
In Aargau, there are highly qualified specialists
in the high-tech industries of energy, electrical
engineering, life sciences, medical technology,
plastics, ICT and mechanical engineering.
4. High quality of life
Anyone who appreciates nature experiences
and cultural highlights feels at home in Aargau.
You can find an outstanding educational
system, innumerable leisure activities and many
local recreational areas for the whole family.
Feature
Decision Making
Project managers
need to make sense
of all sorts of signals,
whether they come
from analytical tools
or informal dialogues
and communication.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
Decision Making
Left:
conscious
deliberation
and analysis
Right:
Intuitive and
experiential
decision-making
10
Feature
WKDW IHHGEDFN WR LQXHQFH WKHPVHOYHV OHDUQing can break down and lead to the experience
trap (Diehl and Sterman, 1995; Sengupta et al.,
2008). As a result, individuals can create their
own potentially inaccurate beliefs, based on subjective interpretations of events (Lapr and Van
Wassenhove, 2003; Staats et al., 2015).
When learning breaks down, we cannot
trust our gut feeling that is based on previous
experiences. As such, we expect that when
decision makers use both system 1 (gut feeling)
and 2 (rational) to process large amounts of
information in complex dynamic situations, like
new product development projects, the quality
of their decisions will suffer. Over time, poor
quality of decisions will lead to problems in
the project. These problems will generate more
information that needs to be processed, which
forces managers to rely even more on system 1,
thereby only making matters worse. Although
some project problems may indeed have been
caused by unknown unknowns (Browning and
Ramasesh, 2015), it is likely that some project
problems are generated as side effects of project
managers past decisions.
Through an in-depth study of a multimillion
dollar new product development project in the
VHPLFRQGXFWRULQGXVWU\ZHQGWKDWPDQDJHUV
discuss both objective and subjective information before making decisions. However, due to
the lack of time to process every piece of information, they rely more on subjective information. This becomes problematic in situations
characterised by mixed signals of bad news
(negative, measurable project facts) and good
vibes (positive, subjective feelings). An example
of such a mixed signal is: the project is delayed
with one week (bad news), but we have made
great progress and team spirit is high (good
vibe). Without understanding the root causes
that generate the bad news and the good vibes,
managers can make the wrong decisions.
It took the project management team in our
study over 80 weeks to realise that the project
could not be realised within the given time,
budget and quality constraints and the project
was cancelled after spending over 20 million
dollars. During these 80 weeks, the team was
FRQYLQFHG WKDW WKH\ FRXOG QLVK WKH SURMHFW
Without
understanding
the root causes
that generate
the bad news
and the good
vibes, managers
could make the
wrong decisions.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
11
Decision Making
desired information
processing capacity
+
-
information pending
(signals waiting to be
processed)
instant relief
reliance on
gut feeling
+
information generated
by new problems
quality of decisions
new problems
12
Feature
Browning, T.R. and Ramasesh, R.V. (2015), Reducing unwelcome surprises in project
management, Sloan Management Review, Vol. 56 No. 3, pp. 53-62.
Cooper, R.G. (2008), Perspective: The stage-gate idea-to-launch process-update, whats
new, and nexgen systems, Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 213-232.
Damasio, A.R. (1994), Descartes Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain, New York, Putnam.
Dane, E. and Pratt, M.G. (2007), Exploring intuition and its role in managerial decision
making, Academy of Management Review, Vol. 32 No. 1, pp. 3354
Diehl, E. and Sterman, J.D. (1995), Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision
making, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 62 No. 2, pp. 198215.
Dreyfus, H. and Dreyfus, S. (2005), Expertise in real world contexts, Organization Studies,
Vol. 26, pp. 779792.
Eisenhardt, K.M. and Tabrizi, B.N. (1995), Accelerating Adaptive Processes: Product
Innovation in the Global Computer Industry, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 40, pp. 84110.
Fenton-OCreevy, M., Soane, E., Nicholson, N. and Willman, P. (2011), Thinking, feeling
and deciding: The influence of emotions on the decision making and performance of
traders, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Vol. 32 No. 8, pp. 10441061.
Forgas, J.P. and Ciarrochi, J.V. (2002), On managing moods: Evidence for the role of
homestatic cognitive strategies in affect regulation, Personality and Social Psychological Bulletin,
Vol. 28, pp. 336345.
Gonzalez, C. and Quesada, J. (2003), Learning in dynamic decision making: The
recognition process, Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory, Vol. 9, pp. 287304.
Gonzalez, C., Lerch, J.F. and Lebiere, C. (2003), Instance-based learning in dynamic
decision making, Cognitive Science, Vol. 27 No. 4, pp. 591635.
Kahneman, D. (2003), A perspective on judgment and choice, American Psychologist, Vol.
58, pp. 697720.
Khatri, N. and Ng, H.A. (2000), The role of intuition in strategic decision making,
Human Relations, Vol. 53, pp. 5786.
Kloppenborg, T.J. and Tesch, D. (2015), How executive sponsors influence project
success, Sloan Management Review, Vol. 56 No. 3, pp. 27-30.
Koehler, D.J., Brenner, L. and Griffin, D. (2002), The calibration of expert judgment:
Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman
(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment, pp. 686715, New York,
Cambridge University Press.
Lapr, M.A. and Van Wassenhove, L.N. (2003), Managing learning curves in factories by
creating and transferring knowledge, California Management Review, Vol. 46 No. 1, pp. 53-71.
Laufer, A., Hoffman, E.J., Russell, J.S. and Cameron, W.S. (2015), What successful project
managers do, Sloan Management Review, Vol. 56 No. 3, pp. 43-51.
Levinthal, D.A. and March, J.G. (1993), The Myopia of Learning, Strategic Management
Journal, Vol. 14, pp. 95-112.
Oliver, D. and Roos, J. (2005), Decision-Making in High-Velocity Environments: The
Importance of Guiding Principles, Organization Studies, Vol. 26 No. 6, pp. 889-913.
Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Day, G.S. (2009), How to make sense of weak signals, Sloan
Management Review, Vol. 50 No. 3, pp. 81-89.
Schwarz, N. and Clore, G.L. (1983), Mood, misattribution and judgments of well-being:
Informative and directive functions of affective states, Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, Vol. 45, pp. 513523.
Sengupta, K., Abdel-Hamid, T.K. and Van Wassenhove, L.N. (2008), The experience trap
Harvard Business Review, Vol. 86 No. 2, pp. 94-.
Seo, M.G. and Barrett, L.F. (2007), Being emotional during decision making good or
bad? An empirical investigation, Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 50 No. 4, pp. 923-940.
Simon, H. (1991), Bounded rationality and organizational learning, Organization
Science, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 125-134.
Sleesman, D.J., Conlon, D.E., McNamara, G. and Miles, J.E. (2012), Cleaning up the big
muddy: A meta-analytic review of the determinants of escalation of commitment, Academy
of Management Journal, Vol. 55 No. 3, pp. 541-562.
Staats, B.R., KC, D.S. and Gino, F. (2015), Blinded by experience: Prior experience,
negative news and belief updating, Harvard Business School, working paper 16-015.
Staw, B.M. (1981), The escalation of commitment to a course of action, Academy of
Management Review, Vol. 6 No. 4, pp. 577-587.
Sting, F.J., Loch, C.H. and Stempfhuber, D. (2015), Accelerating projects by encouraging
help, Sloan Management Review, Vol. 56, No. 3, pp. 33-41.
Thompson, L., Gentner, D. and Loewenstein, J. (2000), Avoiding missed opportunities
in managerial life: Analogical training more powerful than individual case training,
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 82 No. 1, pp. 6075.
Tsai, C.I., Klayman, J. and Hastie, R. (2008), Effects of amount of information on
judgment accuracy and confidence, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol.
107 No. 2, pp. 97105.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
13
Ethics
$24bn
Wells Fargos stock
price dove, shaving
24 billion dollars
from its investors
5,300
employees
were fired,
but surprisingly few
senior executives
among them
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
15
Ethics
Photo courtesy:
Gerald Martineau/
Washington Post/Getty
16
There is a growing
discrepancy between
the values stated
on the wall and
values in action.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
17
Ethics
In 2002, an internal
investigation at Ali Baba
found that two sales persons
were violating the values
and paying off hefty sums
to the company. Jack Ma,
the founder and legendary
CEO, decided to let these
two employees go.
Photo courtesy:
Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
19
Ethics
20
Politics
5 Ways Donald
Trump Could
Make Government
Run More Like
a Business
BY HOWARD SCHWEITZER
1RWH7KLVZDVUVWSXEOLVKHGDW)RUEHVRQ2FWREHU
Applying business concepts to government is not a
fantasy. With the right leader, a heavy dose of patience
DQGJRRGLGHDVJRYHUQPHQWFDQEHFRPHPRUHHIFLHQW
delivering more value at decreased burden to taxpayers.
22
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
23
Lifestyle
with the increasingly strict rules set by the responsible authorities is essential. Even though
some people would call these countries banana
republics, regarding legal set up they are on
western standards; most of these countries have
been former British colonies or territories.
A second passport is a product with several
VHULRXV EHQHWV IRU WKH FLWL]HQVKLS LQYHVWRU )RU
our clients the relative investment hurdle varies deSHQGLQJRQWKHLUQDWLRQDOLW\DQGQDQFLDOFDSDELOity as they are having different aims. Whereby the
usual non-western client has probably 1-5m US$
in assets and looks for a solution, which facilitates
traveling and provides more security, chooses a
country like Vanuatu, St. Kitts & Nevis or Antigua
& Barbuda. A western client who is rather interHVWHGLQWD[EHQHWVRUPRUHDQRQ\PRXVWUDYHOLV
rather more wealthy than a non-western individual. In general one can say a wealthier client prefers
Cyprus or Malta, as these offer European Union
citizenship and passport. But the reasons and decisions are always very individual.
But why is somebody willing to pay several
hundred thousands or even millions for a passport? What are the advantages of getting an alternative citizenship over getting a visa in terms
of travelling?
First of all we are talking about a citizenship
investment not only a passport. Acquiring an
alternative citizenship provides investors benHWV VXFK DV HDVLHU WUDYHOOLQJ VHFXULW\ WR DYRLG
compulsory military service, tax optimisation,
and last but not least an attractive investment
opportunity, if one decided wisely.
Just imagine you want to take your wife out for
a shopping weekend in Paris. If you are an EU
Citizenship-byInvestment (CBI)
programs offer
investors and
wealthy individuals
easier ways to
attain citizenship
through economic
investments in
the country.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
25
Lifestyle
26
HIFLHQWO\H[HFXWHWKHDSSOLFDWLRQSURFHVVIURP
VWDUWWRQLVK
Citizen Lanes sound knowledge on various
citizenship programs and our expertise on
the local situation make it possible for us to
SURYLGHDTXDOLW\SHUVRQDOOHDQVHUYLFHWIRU
our clients needs.
What differentiates Citizen Lane from other
VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV DQG ODZ RIFHV"
Citizen Lane is one of the very few companies providing international Citizenship-byInvestment advisory and processing for a broad
choice of citizenship programs. This allows us
to consult a client and provide him the best
VROXWLRQ,WLVREYLRXVWKDWDODZ\HURI DVSHFLF
country wants to sell his own solution. We are
consulting independently. Thats a big advantage. It is important to us that the client receives
honest and independent advice and that we do
not just sell a product.
Furthermore, Citizen Lane places great value
on individual care, on support even after the
approval process, and offers services free of
third-party costs, making it different from other
VHUYLFHSURYLGHUVDQGODZRIFHV
We understand ourselves as a dedicated
Acquiring the
passport of certain
countries through
Citizenship-byInvestment programs
grants wealthy
people more freedom
of movement.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
27
Lifestyle
last but not least the trust law and available asset
protection solutions.
Currently we are processing the case of an
American citizen who is explicitly not looking for
a Caribbean citizenship solution. He is interested
in having a safe hideaway, far from the Western
World, far away from terrorism and warfare.
Vanuatu has been criticised in the past for not
being a-jour with anti-corruption compliance,
but it has caught up. How does Vanuatus anWLFRUUXSWLRQ SROLF\ EHQHW SRWHQWLDO LQYHVWRUV
and the countrys government?
Thats a good point! Not even a month ago
I have had a meeting with the ambassador of
Vanuatu in Brussels, HE Mr Roy Mickey Joy.
This topic has been an important point on our
agenda. As many other countries, Vanuatu has
realised that anti-corruption is essential for a
prospering country. Vanuatu has given an unwavering commitment to keep the countrys reputation for integrity spotless. In 2015 there have
been trials and more than a dozen high-ranking
RIFLDOV KDYH EHHQ VHQWHQFHG WR SULVRQ IRU D
Vanuatu has
given an
unwavering
commitment to
keep the countrys
reputation for
integrity spotless.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
29
Lifestyle
30
:KDW RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG EHQHWV DUH DYDLODble for those interested in becoming a citizen
through an investment in St. Kitts and Nevis?
The two islands of St. Kitts & Nevis are
currently pretty well developing, not only
economically, where the tourism industry is
growing steadily. But also the real estate market
is well developing. From this perspective the least
expensive, and relatively secure citizenship option
comes with a real estate investment in St. Kitts
& Nevis. Just to name one example: in the south
of the island at Christophe Harbour are some
outstanding villas available, and furthermore just
this year the Caribbeans new super yacht marina
has opened at this site and attracts a lot of new
tourists. No doubt, St. Kitts & Nevis is developing
to a prudent planed paradise jet-set destination!
Bringing Captive
Insurance into Focus
SINGLE PARENT STRUCTURES GROUP/ASSOCIATION CAPTIVES SEGREGATED PORTFOLIO COMPANIES
345.946.2100
www.kensingtonmanagement.ky
Future of Work
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
33
Future of Work
34
19%
2.4% of the UK adult
working population
was employed on zero
hours contracts in
2015, an increase of
19% over 2014
Todays
environment
requires
organisations
to respond
rapidly to the
multifarious
and changing
preferences of
fickle customers
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
35
Future of Work
36
might simply extend to spontaneous knowledge sharing. Nevertheless, all relationships are
valuable forms of social capital through which
the network is enriched and made resilient.
Informal relationships allow the organisation
WRFRQJXUHDQGUHFRQJXUHUDSLGO\WREHVWWits
changing circumstances (e.g. changing customer preferences or environmental disruption).
Whereas economies of scale characterised the
organising logic of the machine bureaucracy,
economies of association will determine strategic
value in this conception of the future organisation. Maximising the potential for sustained
distinctiveness in the marketplace by constantly reinventing work will be the top priority for
custodians of the network overall.
The relationship between human capital
(people) and technological capital (machines)
will cease to be that of master and servant. In
D UHYHUVDO RI UROHV VLJQLFDQW DVSHFWV RI ZRUN
performed by people will be dictated by machine
intelligence. Moreover, humans will lose their
monopoly on the creative process. According
to the United States Air Force, machines will contribute more and more to innovation capability.
Where tasks are not delegated entirely to capable
machines, machines will augment the performance of their human counterparts as man and
machine become closely coupled to cope with
the enormous data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that technologies
either offer or demand.8
Freelance and T-Shaped Talent in Future
Human capital in the post-bureaucracy will be
split into two main categories between which
individuals will likely switch according to circumstances network custodians and performers. Network custodians will primarily invest
their time in maintaining the health and vitality of the network. They will work to secure
the requisite variety of expertise and knowledge necessary for the network to respond to
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
37
Future of Work
Post-bureaucratic
organisations in
future will represent
collectives in which
individual interests
are subordinate to
community interests
and ideas are
crowd sourced.
WKHRUJDQLVDWLRQVHQGVEHFDXVHLWVSXUSRVHGHQHV
their own. Gary Hamel said of creating superior
engagement for vital talent, create a cause and not
a business. Businesses in future will feel more like
causes for which there is genuine passion, rather
than an impersonal and purely functional employment transaction between capital and labour.
Causes speak to the emotive power of purpose as
the unifying force behind the future of work mutuality, unity and shared identity.
The Likely Reality of Something in Between
The list of likely attributes of the future workplace could go on and on. If only a few of these
developments come to pass, how we work in our
Information Age future will indeed be very different to our Industrial Age past. We can see many
aspects of the envisaged future workplace today.
Collaboration, employee empowerment, emotional intelligence, culture management and so on are
commonplace business practices today. They are
all post-bureaucratic in nature. They are decades
ROGFRQFHSWVLPSOHPHQWHGE\UPVWRDGGUHVVWKH
perceived shortcomings of the bureaucracy.
However, it would be wrong to abandon our
LQGXVWULDO DJH WKLQNLQJ FRPSOHWHO\ (IFLHQF\
will continue to matter as much as ever in future.
Bureaucratic ways of working will always be the
most appropriate way of producing the indispensable commoditised products we consume
on a daily basis. The challenge for organisations
TO BE AMBIDEXTROUS,
ORGANISATIONS MAY
WELL COME TO RESEMBLE
NETWORKS MORE THAN
HIERARCHIES ESPECIALLY
WHEN VIEWED AT THE
ENTERPRISE LEVEL.
38
and leaders in the 21st century is to become ambidextrous capable of being simultaneously
HIFLHQWDWH[SORLWLQJH[LVWLQJRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQG
exploring what capabilities are required for competitiveness in future.
To be ambidextrous, organisations may well
come to resemble networks more than hierarchies especially when viewed at the enterprise
level. However, within these networks there will
be elements that are organised bureaucratically.
The principles of a division of labour, supervision, impersonal rules and formalisation of
work practices will always have a place in the
world of work, whether performed by man or
machine. The networked Enterprise Ecosystem
will provide the umbrella for multiple different
species of sub-organisation, with work organised either bureaucratically, post-bureaucratically, or any point in between, according to requirements. The work challenge in future is therefore
to be bothHIFLHQWand innovative.11
Questions to Ponder and Potential Consequences
There are winners and losers in all change. What
might the future of work envisaged in this article
mean for economies, organisations and individuals? There are many more questions than there
are answers.
)RU LQVWDQFH ZLOO HYHU\ERG\ EHQHW HTXDOO\
from the shift from bureaucratic to post-bureaucratic ways of working? Wage inequality is a
political hot potato. Many commentators see the
United Kingdoms vote to leave the European
Union in a referendum on the 23rd June 2016
the so called Brexit as a backlash against the
perceived ill effects of globalisation, post-industrial economic stagnation and immigration (and
low skill migrant labour especially) by Britains
most economically vulnerable communities.
Similarly, support for Donald Trump in the US
presidential election on the 8th November 2016
was strongest amongst rust-belt working communities hit hardest by the decline in US manufacturing. Figure 1 illustrates the stark disconnect in the US from the 1970s onwards between
stagnating workers wages and productivity. For
decades, the typical worker has not shared in
productivity gains accrued through the opening
up of global markets or the introduction of new
FIGURE 1. Disconnect between productivity and a typical workers compensation, 1948 201412
300% 1948-1973:
1973-2014:
Productivity: 96.7%
Productivity: 72.2%
Hourly compensation: 91.3% Hourly compensation: 9.2%
250
200
238.7%
Productivity
150
109.0%
Hourly compensation
100
50
0
1960
1980
2000
Note: Data are for average hourly compensation of production/nonsupervisory workers in the private sector and net productivity of
the total economy. Net prodcutivity is the growth of output of goods and services minus depreciation per hour worked.
Source: EPI analysis of data from the BEA and BLS (see technical appendix for more detailed information)
structures, systems and culture) and the development of capabilities that give organisations a
distinctive competitive edge.
References
1. Tom Goodwin, Crunch Network, 2015: http://
t e ch c r u n ch . c o m / 2 0 1 5 / 0 3 / 0 3 / i n - t h e - a g e - o f disintermediation-the-battle-is-all-for-the-customerinterface/#.qwngvf2:0sCd
2. John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, New York:
W.W.Norton & Co., 1963, pp. 358-373.
3. Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., 2013. The future
of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation.
Retrieved September, 7, p.2013.
4. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/contracts-with-noguaranteed-hours/employee-contracts-that-do-notguarantee-a-minimum-number-of-hours--2015update-/employee-contracts-that-do-not-guaranteea - m i n i m u m - n u m b e r - o f - h o u r s - - 2 0 1 5 - u p d a t e.
html#tab-conclusions
5. http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264previous-technological-innovation-has-always-deliveredmore-long-run-employment-not-less
6. Heckscher, Charles, C. Heckscher, and A. Donnellon.
"Defining the post-bureaucratic type." (1994): 14-62.
7. Mintzberg, Henry. "Patterns in strategy formation."
Management science 24.9 (1978): 934-948.
8. United States Air Force Chief Scientist (AF/ST)
as Report on Technology Horizons: A Vision for Air Force
6FLHQFH 7HFKQRORJ\GXULQJVolume 1AF/STTR-10-01-PR, September 2011
9. www.nytimes.com/2007/03/25/business/yourmoney/
25Stream.html?ex=1332475200&en=cd1ce5cc4ee647d5&
ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&_r=0
10. Buckingham, M. & Goodall, A., (2015), Reinventing
Performance Management, Harvard Business Review, April
11. Gibson, C. & Birkinshaw, J. (2004), The Antecedents,
Consequences, and Mediating Role of Organizational
Ambidexterity, Academy of Management Journal, 47:2 209226; doi:10.2307/20159573
12. http://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
39
PHOTO COURTESY:
microgridmedia.com
Feature
Technology
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
41
Technology
TransActive Grid launched a peer-to-peer (P2P) transaction platform that enables Brooklyn
Microgrid members to buy and sell electricity produced from residential PV solar installations.
Photo courtesy: microgridmedia.com
in global energy supply. Renewable energies, in particular solar power and wind,
become major primary energy sources
in the generation portfolio of countries
such as Australia, Denmark, or Germany.
Several states in the US experience a steep
rise of photovoltaic power often delivered from micro-producers with rooftop
panels via the conventional distribution
grid. In 2015, approximately a third of
Germanys electricity consumption was
generated from renewables, with more
than 1.5 million photovoltaic micro-generation units,6 26,000 wind turbines,7
and 9,000 biomass power plants.8 These
power units alone amount to an installed
capacity of 97 GW,9 almost half of
Germanys total capacity.
The combination of Blockchain
as emerging peer-to-peer transaction
technology with the rapid growth of
decentralised energy supply bears a
considerable disruptive potential for
Feature
with Blockchain and 39 percent are planning to do so, including pilot tests, studies, analyses, and research projects.
Sixty percent of the respondents believe that a further
dissemination of the Blockchain is likely. 21 percent consider Blockchain a game changer for the energy supply industry,
and 14 percent expect niche applications. Only 5 percent either
do not see any potential or an almost inexistent potential of
%ORFNFKDLQLQWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUVHHJXUHEHORZ
0RUHVSHFLFDOO\UHVSRQGHQWVZHUHDVNHGWRTXDOLWDWLYHO\
identify potential use cases and applications of Blockchain
in the energy sector and provide a judgment according to
WKHFODVVLFDWLRQXVHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVTXHVWLRQWKDWPHDQV
ranging from small to non-existent potential to game changer.
,QWRWDOUHVSRQGHQWVLGHQWLHGPRUHWKDQSRWHQWLDOXVH
cases and their respective potentials.
The responses can be differentiated into two main clusters: platforms and processes.
As expected, most of the responses in the platforms
cluster relate to public platforms, such as peer-to-peer netZRUNVFRPSRVHGRI UHVLGHQWLDOSURVXPHUVZKREHQHWIURP
Blockchains decentralised structure and engage in decentralised energy management, neighbourhood solutions, and the
coordination of renewable installations. Some respondents
also mentioned the potential of privately owned B-2-B platforms, for example in intraday trading, virtual power plants,
interruptible loads, and storage capacity.
However, energy executives mention an equally high amount
of potential applications in the cluster processes. Most responsHV ZHUH UHODWHG WR ELOOLQJ LQFOXGLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ WKH HOG
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
43
Technology
The results of the survey show that German energy executives see a broad range of possible
applications of Blockchain in the energy system, both in terms of processes as well as platforms.
coincides with an existential need of many companies to cut
costs. Hence, energy companies may have an intrinsic motiYDWLRQWRH[SORLWWKHHIFLHQF\RI WKH%ORFNFKDLQSURWRFROWR
LQFUHDVHWKHLULQWHUQDOSHUIRUPDQFHDQGHIFLHQF\$FFRUGLQJ
to respondents statements, it has the potential to reduce
costs and to enable new business models and marketplaces;
it will be instrumental to manage complexity, data security,
and ownership.
The results of the survey show that German energy
executives see a broad range of possible applications of
Blockchain in the energy system, both in terms of processes
as well as platforms. However, it is competing with existing
solutions and has to prove its attractiveness to users. From a
market perspective, establishing Blockchain as the dominant
WUDQVDFWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\ PLJKW EH PRUH GLIFXOW LQ H[LVWLQJ
markets than in new markets where new applications do not
yet exist. Taking a practical case from the energy sector, the
rollout of Smart Meters has just begun in countries such as
the United Kingdom, in Germany a sequential rollout will
start at the beginning of 2017. Many countries plan the ofFLDOVWDUWRI WKHUROORXWLQWKHQH[WRQHRUWZR\HDUV,WLV
not clear which software solution will become dominant in
multi-directional Smart Meter transactions. Similarly, establishing a homogeneous payment system for public charging
stations of electric vehicles is still a work in progress. Startups
such as BlockCharge are trying to push a standard based on
Blockchain. Wherever a peer-to-peer trading network that
does not rely on an intermediary a trusted institution has
not yet been established on a large scale, Blockchain has the
chance to become the dominant design.
Blockchain might have a more contestable position in
applications where technologically sophisticated platforms
and processes already exist and are accepted among market
participants. Electricity exchanges such as the European
Electricity Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) serve as platforms
that were established under the paradigm of liberalisation
to allow parties to trade energy, emissions, and their deULYDWLYHV(YHQWKRXJK%ORFNFKDLQDOWHUVWKHFRQJXUDWLRQ
of trading by establishing a peer-to-peer network, it has to
compete with the existing solution. Only if its applications
have tangible, monetary, or timely advantages, Blockchainbased solutions will be able to convince a critical number of
market participants to switch from the current status quo to
WKHQHZSODWIRUPJHQHUDWLQJVXIFLHQWOLTXLGLW\DQGHVWDElishing itself as an attractive alternative.
44
Technology
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
45
Technology
46
Controlling inflation
is one of the core
missions of The Fed.
So, for the chair of
The Fed to ask what
determines inflation
is an explicit
admission that the
world has changed
and we need to ask
new questions.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
47
Technology
To expand our understanding of our businesses, our economy and our world we
must recognise that our attempts at prediction and control change the very things
that we are trying to control. And, the more we believe we have achieved control
the more disruption we are likely to feel once we realise things have changed.
In her speech, Yellen gave a range of economic assumptions that require added scrutiny, including the impact that present policy
statements have on future behaviours. This
sounds remarkably similar to predictive analytics performed by digitally-savvy insurance
companies, e-tailers, and social media advertisers. Such analyses are core to contemporary Big Data practices, although in the case
of The Fed Big Data may have to become
Humungous Data, given the scope of these
questions, and the potential implications of
their answers.
Micro Principles, Macro Scale
5HHFWLQJ RQ &KDLUZRPDQ <HOOHQV TXHVWLRQV ,
QG WKH VDPH FRQFHUQV WKDW , KHDU LQ VSHDNLQJ
with leaders of every organisation; although
scaled up rather dramatically. The same old
analyses of the same old data, using the same
old interpretations and biases are no longer
leading to the same results. Instead, many attempts at applying traditional business thinking either falls short of expectations, or leads
to completely new, and undesirable, results.
This shouldnt be a surprise. Rather, the decreasing effectiveness of our reporting and
controls is a direct consequence of our success
in managing what is known. The better we are
at managing these knowns, the more likely we
are to be impacted by unknowns. To maintain
some control over our environment, we must
ask new questions of new data. To expand our
understanding of our businesses, our economy
and our world we must recognise that our attempts at prediction and control change the
very things that we are trying to control. And,
the more we believe we have achieved control
the more disruption we are likely to feel once
we realise things have changed.
Like central banks around the world, The
48
Management
man is an illusion and that organisations continuing to treat their most important asset
humans in ways that do not accommodate
their irrationalities will not go far.
Despite the rise of
Despite the rise of automation processes
automation processes
and the use of robots, people are still at the
and the use of robots,
heart of organisations. Organisations neverpeople are still at the
theless base their management processes,
heart of organisations.
systems and even HR policies on outdated
ideas of human behaviour and organisational design. This is a serious limitation to the calthough effective organisations that pacity of any organisation trying to balance
create joint value combined with a improving productivity and at the same time
long-term view are predicted to be the NHHSLQJ WKHLU HPSOR\HHV VDWLVHG DQG PRWLfuture model, they are still considered to be vated. What is needed is that HR managers
a rarity. A contemporary problem is that all and organisational leaders adopt an attitude
too often performance systems are focused to design systems that are based on the best
on achieving results with not enough atten- understanding of human nature. This kind
tion to the human aspects of the work that of attitude requires that organisations conLQXHQFH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH V\VWHP sider themselves to be architects of organisaitself. Indeed, performance is still believed to WLRQDO GHVLJQV WKDW W KXPDQ QHHGV DQG LUimprove by employing systems that are tailor- rationalities. Relying on the best insights on
made on the assumption that rational actors what motivates people and what the irratioSRSXODWHRUJDQLVDWLRQV$VDUHVXOWWKHLQX- nal biases may be underlying their pursuit
ence of emotions, irrationalities and psycho- of those desires will allow organisations to
logical forces at large are discounted when de- design systems that are not only more effecsigning these organisational systems. Research tive in getting the best out of people but also
RQ KXPDQ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ DZV KDYH LGHQ- UHGXFHFRVWVRQWKHORQJWHUPVLJQLFDQWO\$W
WLHGYHU\FOHDUO\QRZWKDWWKHLGHDRI UDWLRQDO the end of the day, organisations with such
an architect mindset will be able to create
more joint value for all of their stakeholders
An important problem that prevents companies to
(society, customers and employees).
An important problem that prevents most
foster an architect mindset concerns the fact that
companies to adopt this strategy and foster an
experimenting and learning about the beneficial
architect mindset concerns the fact that eximpacts of human nature on organisational design
SHULPHQWLQJDQGOHDUQLQJDERXWWKHEHQHFLDO
requires short-term losses to achieve long-term gains. impacts of human nature on organisational
If organisations are serious in building
cultures that can translate the desire to
create joint value into a competitive advantage, it is needed that they become
architects of systems that account for
the human nature of its employees. One
company that has become known to implement experimental approaches based
on insights on how human nature works is
the Chinese telecom giant Huawei.
50
HQJDJH LQ WKRXJKWIXO UHHFWLRQV RQ WKH EXVLness models Huawei will employ. It is an understatement to say that Huawei breeds an intellectual climate fostering thoughts and ideas
about a wide variety of business challenges.
In fact, Ren Zhengfei is repeatedly quoted as
saying that the most important thing to value
is the power to think. It is the belief of the
company that innovation without a solid academic foundation is never going to be big
business. It is just messing with the details.
Ren Zhengfei has the belief that the Internet
DJHKDVFUHDWHGDJHQHUDWLRQRI LQDWHGLGHDV
in Chinas young people and therefore fears
WKDWVHULRXVVFLHQWLFUHVHDUFKLVODFNLQJWKHVH
days. The only way to achieve great leadership is therefore to do some hard learning
and this idea has become a mission for all of
Huawei employees.
So, how has this intellectual look at business challenges resulted in Huaweis experimentation with human nature with the aim
to promote organisational effectiveness? We
identify three important experiments that
KDYHDQGDUHGHQLQJ+XDZHLDVWKHFRPSDQ\
it has become today. Each of these three behavioural-based interventions are derived
from insights into the drives of humans and
their corresponding biases.
Ren Zhengfei
has the belief
that the Internet
age has created
a generation of
inflated ideas in
Chinas young
people and
therefore fears
that serious
scientific research is
lacking these days.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
51
Management
84,500 employees
98.6%
52
60.84
46.51
32.39
27.62
2010
2011
/,1
35.35
2012
39.46
2013
Employee Overhead
2014
2015
Revenue
As of June 2016
their bosses. It is a sense of pride and ownership that will make a company sustainable
and nevertheless fast moving. Huawei as such
GHQHV SRZHU PRUH LQ WHUPV RI WKH GHVLUH
of employees to gain freedom to perform
better. This perspective on power is different from the one that most companies use.
In fact, most organisations still stick to the
old idea that power corrupts because they see
power as having the ability to control others.
Recent behavioural research, however, has illustrated that people, in general, want to be in
charge because it offers freedom, not because
it allows people to control others. This idea of
power to have more freedom to excel brings
us to a second behaviour-based intervention
of Huawei.
Intervention 2: Creating freedom to excel
At Huawei, 1 out of 2 employees are engineers and therefore involved with some aspect
of R&D. They are knowledge workers and
one very typical feature of this kind of workforce is that they want freedom in how they
do their job. In fact, places that rely on human
capital which creative sectors do display
wise leadership if they provide their employees a measure of freedom. Wise leadership is
what Ren Zhengfei has been attributed to. The
story goes that Ren was so impressed by the
AT&T Bell labs in the early years of Huawei
that he used it to model his thinking on how
research should be done. Although AT&T
Bell labs gradually departed from their curiosity driven research climate after the break-up
of AT&T, Huawei made it one of their corner
stones, relying on the innate desire of human
intellectuals to work with freedom.
Providing this freedom also has its limitations and it is one of the reasons why so many
companies have problems installing systems
that rely on promoting the autonomy of their
workforce. An important limitation is the fact
that the human motive to value freedom and
autonomy of actions goes together with the
irrational tendency to avoid irreversible deFLVLRQV 6SHFLFDOO\ LI VWULYLQJ IRU IUHHGRP
is the dominant motive people will feel less
compelled to commit to anything, anyone or
Being Employee-owned
as a way to
distribute power
Creating freedom
to excel
Failing to innovate
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
53
Management
54
Executive MBA
www.esmt.org/etp
www.esmt.org/emba
Join us in Berlin!
Entrepreneurship
56
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
57
Entrepreneurship
In the words of The Darden Schools Saras Sarasvathy, Treat your first customers
as your partners they are your earliest investors and your best salespeople.
every company, of course. If you want
to build a dam and a hydroelectric power
plant on some fast-moving water, youll
probably need capital up front, and lots
of it. The same goes for other capital-intensive businesses, including many kinds
RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ %XW , QG WKH YH
models apply much more widely than
PLJKWDSSHDUDWDUVWJODQFHLQERWK
services and product businesses, and in
both B2B and B2C settings.
If yours is a business for which customer-funded models do have applicability, once your business has won the
traction you were dreaming of, then
you may well decide that funding from
an angel or a VC is just what you need
to take your business to the next level.
Indeed, as Kleiner Perkins partner
Randy Komisar notes, Even if you
plan on eventually scaling with venture
capital, customer funding can be a
smart path to experiment and prove
your business in advance.
The best news is this. If you raise
money at a somewhat later stage of
your entrepreneurial journey, once your
EXVLQHVV LV ULQJ RQ DOO F\OLQGHUV ZLWK
proven customer traction in hand, youll
be in the drivers seat, and the queue of
investors outside your door will have to
compete for your deal!
TABLE. Yearning for venture capital? Maybe you should forget it!
Funding Sources
Rejection rate
The Details
YCombinator
97.2%
AngelList
98.8%
Only around 1,000 of the 85,000 deals listed on the AngelList site
in 2013 won funding, according to The Economist.
Andreessen
Horowitz
99.3%
58
John Mullins is
a three-time entrepreneur and
an
Associate
Professor
of
Management Practice at London
Business School. His latest book is The
Customer-Funded Business: Start, Finance,
or Grow Your Company with Your
Customers Cash.
Marketing
A New Model
for the Future
of Customer
Relationships
BY YORAM (JERRY) WIND AND CATHARINE HAYS, WITH ALEXA DE LOS REYES
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
59
Marketing
ALIGNED
OBJECTIVES
People
Culture,
Society,
& the
World
Brand
Steward
Network
COMPELLING
BRAND PURPOSE
Analytical
Brilliance
Creative
Brilliance
Social
Networks
Operational
Brilliance
Design
Brilliance
ALL TOUCHPOINT
ORCHESTRATION
Employees
Customer
Service
Media
Website &
Apps
Experience
Public
Relations
Sales
Force
Packaging
Design
People
Games
Word of
Mouth
Messaging
Other
TOUCHPOINT
VALUE CREATION
Maximised Substance
R.A.V.E.S.
Store
Design
Payment
Internet of
Things
60
Product
Design
+
Maximised Content
M.A.D.E.S
M ultisensory
A udience
D elivery Mechanism
E nvironment
S ynergy
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
61
Marketing
1
Aligned Objectives
2
Compelling
Brand Purpose
3
All Touchpoint
Orchestration
4
Touchpoint
Value Creation
62
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
63
Branding
behaviour. The aim of this article is to provide insights in the effective adaption of a storytelling approach against the backdrop
of value creation and consumer brand perception. Based on the
main dimensions of storytelling such as the plot, the story archiWHFWXUHVSHFLFWXUQLQJSRLQWVWKHH[SHULHQFHRI DFRQLFWWKH
interaction of characters, the text style, the narrative form and
the key lesson, it will be shown how a credible story has to be arranged in relation to the core elements of a brand.
The History of Storytelling
The historical origins of storytelling cannot be traced to a particular time in the past, nevertheless, it can be stated that the desire
to hear and tell stories has existed even before humans had the
capacity to speech: Cave paintings are the earliest form of storytelling in a time long before languages and writing existed.
Stories about past events and warnings of dangers and risks were
painted on cave or rock walls to entertain and educate children.
Over the times, the development of languages led to the oral
tradition of storytelling that spread stories between groups of
people through word-of-mouth at e.g., tribal events and campUHV3DVVLQJIURPJHQHUDWLRQWRJHQHUDWLRQVWRULHVLQWHUPVRI
myths, legends, fairytales, paintings or songs about heroic adventures, experiences, dangers, rituals and natural events were told
and retold. Through stories, humans tried to explain the inexSOLFDEOHDQGQGDUHDVRQIRULQFLGHQWVLQWKHLUSDVWDQGSUHVHQW
world. As stated above, before people had the ability to read and
write, oral stories represented not only entertainment but also
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
65
Branding
Telling tales as
a trump card in
brand building
and brand
communication
in general,
addresses the
emotional world
of a consumer and
aims to construct
a particular
mental image/
representation of
a brand
common knowledge and education: Stories transported wisdom and beliefs as part of a cultural heritage and preserved historical record. Reasoning
the importance of storytelling, the ability to effectively tell stories was a valuable skill and vest power
DQG VRFLDO LQXHQFH 6WRU\WHOOHUV KDG D NH\ UROHLQ
their community and kept important knowledge
alive by inspiring their audience.
Even in our modern times, the power of storytelling is an important part of everyday life and
business contexts: Stories transport content and
messages better than sheer facts. Referring to
the connection between consumers and brands,
a creative, authentic story that is told and shared
allows the creation of an individual bond that represents a key success factor in a competitive environment. Particularly in marketing and management, storytelling has become increasingly
of interest to create desirable images and foster
consumer-brand-interaction.
The Secret to Storytelling Engaging Hearts
and Heads of Your Audience
Telling tales as a trump card in brand building
and brand communication in general, addresses the emotional world of a consumer and aims
to construct a particular mental image/representation of a brand (Glvez, 2016). Despite the numerous advantages and the increasing popularity
Brand Value
Perception
Course of
Action
Transportation/Immersion
Narrative
Presence
Brand-related
Behavior
Brand
Perception
Attentional
Focus
!"+1& 1&,+
Cognitive
!"+1& 1&,+
Emotional
!"+1& 1&,+
66
Mental
Imagery
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
67
Branding
68
Governance
A Wake-Up-Call for
the Boards on Innovation
BY ALESSANDRO DI FIORE, JONAS VETTER AND JOACHIM VON HEIMBURG
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
69
Governance
70
Today, they produce products for nutrition and health for humans and animals
like vitamins, and high performance materials for many industries (like Dyneema
WKH ZRUOGV VWURQJHVW EHU '60 UHLQvented itself multiple times in its history,
ensuring the companys prosperity in the
long term. So, it can be done as proven
by DSM but this seems more to be an
exception than the norm. Why?
Striking the right balance between
managing the current and developing
future businesses at the same time is one
of the biggest challenges for management. Under constant pressure of quarterly earnings, executives tend to focus
too much on the day-to-day operations.
Boards can play a critical role in
shaping a balanced ambidexterity,
raising the company executives strategic
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
71
Business Model
to change their
business model?
BY TINA SAEBI, LASSE LIEN AND NICOLAI FOSS
72
Target Segment
Value Proposition
Value Capture
Value Delivery
Method
In 2010, Professor Lasse Lien and Eirik Knudsen
from the Norwegian School of Economics collected data on a representative sample of 1195
1RUZHJLDQ FRPSDQLHV H[SHULHQFHV GXULQJ WKH nancial crisis. Using CEOs as respondents, data
ZDV FROOHFWHG RQ KRZ UPV ZHUH DIIHFWHG E\ WKH
UHFHVVLRQ LQ WKH ZDNH RI WKH QDQFLDO FULVLV DQG
ZKLFK PHDVXUHV WKH UPV XQGHUWRRN WR DGDSW WKHLU
business model in response to this. In our sample
WKHUH ZHUH UPV WKDW ZHUH ERWK SRVLWLYHO\ DQG
QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWHG E\ WKH UHFHVVLRQ :H GHQHG
threat as the perception of being negatively affected, and opportunity as being positively affected. For
a more detailed account of our method, data collection and statistical analysis, please see our full
journal article published in Long Range Planning.
Managers are
more willing
to take on the
risk of adapting
business models
when faced by
a significant
threat, and less
willing to do so
when faced by
an opportunity.
Findings
2XU UHVHDUFK QGLQJV VKRZ WKDW PDQDJHUV DUH
more likely to adapt their business model under
conditions of perceived threats than under conditions of perceived opportunity. To be more
precise, we found that the more severe the exWHUQDO WKUHDW WKH PRUH OLNHO\ WKDW WKH UP ZRXOG
change their business model. While an increase
in the perceived opportunities only increased the
OLNHOLKRRG RI VWDWXV TXR 6R RXU PDLQ QGLQJ LV
in line with prospect theory. Managers are more
willing to take on the risk of adapting business
PRGHOV ZKHQ IDFHG E\ D VLJQLFDQW WKUHDW DQG OHVV
willing to do so when faced by an opportunity.
Threatrigidity
theory
No to BMA under
threat; Yes to BMA
under opportunity
Prospect
theory
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
73
Innovation
Reverse Innovation
A New World Order
for Global Innovation?
BY SIMONE CORSI & MAX VON ZEDTWITZ
Recognising the growing role that emerging economies play in the global innovation
landscape, the article provides a measure
for the extent of the phenomenon identifying Asia as the main source of a new threat
and opportunity for Western companies:
reverse innovation.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
75
Innovation
TABLE 1. Top-10 Ranking of PCT Applicants and Country of Origin, 2005, 2010, and 2015
2005
2010
Country
PCT App.
Company
Country
PCT App.
Company
Country
PCT App.
Philips
NL
JP
DE
2,483
2,024
Panasonic
ZTE
Qualcomm
JP
CN
US
2,155
1,872
Huawei
Panasonic
Siemens
Qualcomm
ZTE
CN
US
CN
3,898
2,442
Nokia
Bosch
Intel
FI
DE
US
Huawei
Philips
Bosch
CN
NL
DE
KR
JP
SE
DE
US
LG
Sharp
KR
JP
1,573
1,433
1,313
1,297
1,287
Samsung
Mitsubishi
Ericsson
BASF
3M
899
847
696
654
614
LG
Sony
KR
JP
1,683
1,593
1,481
1,457
1,381
Motorola
US
586
Ericsson
SE
1,144
Philips
NL
1,378
Daimler
DE
573
NEC
JP
1,108
HP
US
1,310
1,379
Source: WIPO.
76
2015
Company
1,675
2,155
FIGURE 1. Total PCT patents filed by country, 2000 to 2015, top-10 filers only
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
US an
y
p
Ja man ina
r Ch rea
e
G
Ko ance K
U
Fr
ds
an
nd
erl
rla den
h
t
e
e
z
e
it
N
Sw
Sw
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Western managers are thus very concerned about the potential of low-cost
but good-enough quality competition
from reverse innovation, and see even
products from their own Asian subsidiaries as undermining their own livelihoods at home.
Directors of Western subsidiaries
in China, India and other emerging
markets will need to be sensitive to
this attitude by their home-based colleagues. At the same time, they see
the opportunity of tapping into the
local ingenuity and fast-developing
expertise in many product and technology sectors that were transferred
IURP WKH :HVW UVW E\ PRYLQJ SURduction and later by shifting R&D
resources. They would be poor managers if they overlooked this potential. In addition, their local teams are
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77
Innovation
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
79
Supply Chain
Background
1.1 The 787 Development Program. 787,
the Dreamliner, was believed to be the most advanced commercial aircraft ever built and the
PRVWHIFLHQWWRRSHUDWHGXHWRLWVXQSUHFHGHQWHG
use of the lightweight composite materials.3 The
Dreamliner is also unprecedented in the scale of
development outsourcing 65% of the development work is outsourced to more than 100 suppliers from 12 countries.4 Exhibit 1 (see next page)
1. Introduction
provides details on tier-1 suppliers.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner was the fastest-sellTier 1 suppliers design and fabricate 11 major
ing plane ever in the commercial aviation industry,2 subassemblies, Boeing integrates and assembles.
but its development was a nightmare. In this article 6SHFLFDOO\%RHLQJGHQHVWKHSDUWVDQGLQWHUIDFwe analyse Boeings traumatic experience, discover es, but leaves the detailed design to suppliers who
what really happened, identify the root causes, and can optimise within each work package, and must
offer ways to avoid similar disasters in the future. work with each other on the interfaces. In case of
We believe that such lessons can provide valuable disputes, Boeing serves as a referee to assist the
insights for companies around the world to ensure suppliers.5 Development outsourcing provides
successes in joint product development.
%RHLQJVLJQLFDQWEHQHWV
Our conclusion is simple. A majority of 787 de- 1. Market expansion. Outsourcing workload to
velopment delays may be deliberate and thus could
other countries helps to secure sales of the airhave been avoided! The root cause of these delays
plane to these countries before product launch.
is a subtle incentive trap in the risk sharing partnerDevelopment outsourcing is instrumental in
ship induced by the wrong risk shared among
making the Dreamliner the fastest-selling plane.
%RHLQJDQGWKHVXSSOLHUV7KLVOHGWKHUPVLQWRD 2. Technology. Development sourcing enables
prisoners dilemma wherein delays were in their
Boeing to utilise the best in-class expertise and
best interests even while they were driving themknowledge worldwide, and thus reduces the
selves into a disaster. We reconcile an empirical
technological risk.
study of the actual events with an economic anal787 does not stand alone in workload outsourc\VLVRI QDQFLDOLQFHQWLYHVDQGUHYHDOWKHUDWLRQDOH ing. Other noticeable examples include Airbus 380
behind many seemingly irrational behaviours that and the Global Hawk; statistics shows that, on
delayed the 787 program. We show that properly average, about 50% of the revenue of Raytheon
distinguishing different types of risk and sharing was paid to the suppliers.6
only the right risk can help aligning the interests
1.2 The Risk Sharing Partnership.
RI SDUWQHUVDQGWKXVVLJQLFDQWO\UHGXFHRUFRP- Development outsourcing is not without challengpletely avoid such deliberate delays.
HV8QOLNHWKHPRGHORI RQHUPGRHVDOOGLIIHUHQW
80
EXHIBIT 1. The 787 tier-1 suppliers (KHI Kawasaki Heavy Industries, FHI Fuji Heavy Industries, MHI Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries, KAL-ASD Korean Airlines - Aerospace Division)
Vertical Fin
Boeing-Fredrickson
20")$"
(S47, S48) Vought
Forward Fuselage
(S43) KHI
Horizontal Stabiliser
Alenia
WDVNVWKDWFRQVWLWXWHDSURMHFWDUHSHUIRUPHGE\GLIIHUHQWUPV
who rely on each other to control their cost and schedule. Thus,
DFULWLFDOLVVXHLVLQFHQWLYHDOLJQPHQWEHFDXVHUPVPD\RSWLPLVH
IRUWKHLURZQEHQHWUDWKHUWKDQWKDWRI WKHSURMHFW
Development projects typically require iterations. Thus to
align incentives, Boeing must ensure that no supplier can cash
out before the project completes. This requirement rules out
WKH[HGSULFHFRQWUDFWVDVLQVXEFRQWUDFWLQJZKHUHWKHVXSSOLers are paid upon job completion, and thus can walk away from
future iterations. Furthermore, Boeing must motivate the suppliHUVWRZRUNKDUGDQGFRVWHIFLHQWO\7KLVUHTXLUHPHQWUXOHVRXW
the time-material contracts (as in consulting), which may encourDJHVXSSOLHUVWRZRUNVORZO\DQGLQDWHWKHLUFRVW
To manage development outsourcing, Boeing came up with
an ingenious idea the risk-sharing partnership, which makes
the suppliers the stakeholders of the 787 program.76SHFLFDOO\
Boeing asked the risk-sharing partners to bear the up-front nonrecurring R&D investment for their work, and wait until the
SODQHLVFHUWLHGDQGGHOLYHUHGWRJHWSDLG6RWKHVXSSOLHUVVKDUH
the risk of program delays. The payment follows a pre-negotiated price per unit, and so the more planes Boeing sells, the
more money each supplier makes. To compensate the suppliers
for taking the risk, Boeing assigned them the intellectual property rights of their work, and so the suppliers have the assurance
from Boeing that they will not be replaced down the road.
Forward Fuselage
(S41) Spirit
The risk-sharing partnership promised tremendous beneWVWR%RHLQJUVWLWUHGXFHVVXEVWDQWLDOO\%RHLQJVXSIURQWLQvestment.8 Second, it reduces Boeings exposure to delay risks
because Boeing only bears the cost of its own investment if the
project is ever delayed. Finally, suppliers may be motivated to
ZRUNHIFLHQWO\DQGKDUGEHFDXVHWKH\VSHQGWKHLURZQPRQH\
and share the loss of delays.
Development outsourcing plus risk-sharing (dubbed Buildto-Performance) seems a wonderful idea. Boeing strongly believed that risk sharing provides the right incentives and
so left the selection and control of subtier suppliers to its risk
sharing partners.9
1.3 The 787 Disaster. In reality, 787 development was a
GLVDVWHUWKHUVWLJKWZDVGHOD\HGE\PRQWKVDQGWKHUVW
delivery was delayed by 40 months with a cost overrun of at
least $ELOOLRQE\WKHUVWGHOLYHU\10 including write-offs due
to defects (~$2.5 billion), excessive R&D costs (~$3.5 billion),
customer contract penalty (~$5 Billion). It was the worst delay
in the commercial aviation industry (see Exhibit 2 next page,
upper left).
Naturally, people asked, what caused the delay? How could it
have been avoided? Three conjectures were proposed:
1. 8QLRQVWULNHV.12 If we look at the actual events, union strikes
only delayed 3 out of the 40 months total. So the unions had
an impact but not substantial.
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81
Supply Chain
Planned
1st
delivery
date
Planned
program
duration
(months)
Actual 1st
delivery
date
Actual
program
duration
(months)
Delay of
the 1st
delivery
(months)
Total
Development
,01))/*0
involved)
777
1/1990
5/1995
64
5/1995
64
~$6-7 billion
12/2000
2/2006
62
10/2007
82
20
~$13 billion
787
1/2003
5/2008
64
9/2011
104
40
billion
10/
2007
Duration
7 months
on the 1st
&$%1
Causes
given
Responsible
/*0
Parts shortage
(e.g., fasteners)
Alcoa
Vought
Alenia
Spirit
GA
Honey-well
etc.
Defects.
++&0%"!
work from
suppliers
1/
2008
3 months
on the 1st
&$%1
Design issues
Missing
documentation
Flight control
0,4/"
++&0%"!
work from the
suppliers
Vought
Alenia
GA
Boeing
Slow assembly
progress at
Boeing
4/
2008
6 months
on the 1st
&$%1
Same as above
Same as
above
Same as above
12/
2008
6 months
on the 1st
&$%1
Wrongly
installed
fasteners at
Boeing FAL
Boeing
6/
2009
+!"+&1")6
on the 1st
&$%1
Defects at
wing-body
joint
Boeing
Fuji
Mitsubishi
1/2 12/)4&+!"0&$++!
engineering
8/
2010
3 months
on the 1st
delivery
Uncontained
engine failure
& availability
issue
Boeing
Rolls Royce
Unknown
12/
2010
+!"+&1")6
on the 1st
delivery
An on-board
")" 1/& )/"
Hamilton
Sundstrand
82
Explanations
Why irrational?
%1(&+!,#"+$&+""/&+$+!*+2# 12/&+$/*04&))
design and fabricate a new part without testing it?
,2$%1%/)"01,+%!1,20"novice student
inspectors because it had problems attracting
competent technicians
A simple example (see appendix), resembling Dreamliners workload distribution, manifests this incentive issue and
reveals a deep insight: the risk sharing partQHUVKLS FDQ SXW WKH UPV LQWR D 3ULVRQHUV
Dilemma although keeping the planned
GXUDWLRQ EHQHWV WKH HQWLUH SURMHFW LW FDQ
EH LQ HDFK UPV EHVW LQWHUHVW WR GHOD\ ,Q
summary, although risk sharing may seem
WR PRWLYDWH SDUWQHUV WR ZRUN HIFLHQW DQG
hard, it actually provides a strong incentive for them to delay deliberately so that
they can save their own cost at the expenses of others.
4. Reconciliation: What Caused
The Delays?
We now reconcile the analysis in 3 with
the events in 2, to reveal the rationale
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
83
Supply Chain
Reasoning
,2$%14&1"!1&))1,
build the plant (job assigned
!2"23
Suppliers irrational
behaviours (explanations for
delays)
) ,.2,1"!4""()"!
1&*"#,/#01"+"/0 &1&+$
capacity issues & scale
economies.
What did
Boeing really
say?
Reasoning
) ,.2,1"!4""()"!
1&*"#,/#01"+"/0 &1&+$&002"0
,# - &160 )"" ,+,*&"0
,+1/&21&+$1,1%"/01!")6+
/"0-,+0","&+$ ,+0,)&!1"!
&10#01"+"/-/, 2/"*"+1
directly negotiated with
02--)&"/0#,/#3,2/)"-/& &+$
We estimated delays,
but underestimated
them.
We dont have to
hurry up to save
suppliers money
84
suppliers in real time to ensure that the 787 components and modules are tested right away at the
original manufacturers before shipped out to
the next level of integration. Second, Boeing acquired Voughts interest in Global Aeronautica in
June 2008, and bought Voughts 787 operations in
South Carolina entirely in July 2009.27 After these
acquisitions, Boeings share of the delay damages
increased considerably, and it tightened up its internal control. Consequently, there are no more
embarrassing mistakes since then, and the last
three major delays are largely due to unexpected
technical issues.
6. Conclusion
The trend of outsourcing is irreversible in product
development especially for large and complex engineering systems. Although risk sharing may seem a
wonderful idea to manage development outsourcing, it may encourage deliberate delays and cost
overruns if the wrong risk (the risk of controllable delays) is shared. The 787 program manifests
this subtle but deadly incentive trap that management should avoid in joint product development.
Our research suggests that properly distinguishing different types of risk in project execution and
sharing only the right risk (the risk of uncontrolODEOH GHOD\V FDQ KHOS UPV EHWWHU DOLJQ WKH LQFHQtives, and so they may continue development outVRXUFLQJ ZLWKRXW VDFULFLQJ SURMHFW SHUIRUPDQFH
Appendix
In this example, we have two sequential tasks, A
and B, for which, the planned durations are 9 and
5 weeks. We can delay each task by one week, and
save $900 (for A) and $1200 (for B) in the direct
costs. If the project takes longer than the planned
duration, 14 weeks, it suffers an extra indirect cost
of $1600 per week.
We must point
out that the fair
sharing partnership
isnt a panacea as
its effectiveness
relies on the
firms capability to
distinguish the types
of risk, which is
not always possible
especially in projects
involving creative
activities and
substantial technical
challenges.
www.europeanbusinessreview.com
85
Supply Chain
,QWKHRQHUPGRHVDOOPRGHOWKHUPZRXOGQRWGHOD\
any task because the extra indirect cost of the project upon delay
exceeds the savings in the direct costs of all tasks. In the outVRXUFLQJDQGULVNVKDULQJPRGHOOHWVDVVXPHWKDWUP$GRHV
WDVN$UP%GRHVWDVN%DQGXSRQHDFKZHHNRI WKHSURMHFW
GHOD\UP$SD\VDQH[WUDLQGLUHFWFRVWRI $DQGUP%SD\V
$850 (the total indirect cost is still $ZHHN 7R QG RXW
ZKDWUPV$DQG%ZRXOGGRLQWKHLUEHVWLQWHUHVWVZHFRQVLGer four scenarios:
1. (Win-Lose,I UP$GHOD\VEXWUP%NHHSVLWVWDVNGXUDtion, then the project is delayed by one week. A saves $900
but loses $750 with a net gain of $150, while B suffers a net
loss of $850.
2. (Lose-Win ,I UP $ NHHSV LWV WDVN GXUDWLRQ EXW UP %
GHOD\VWKHQUP$VXIIHUVDQHWORVVRI $ZKLOHUP%
saves $1200 but loses $850 with a net gain of $350.
3. (Lose-LoseLI ERWKUPV$DQG%GHOD\WKHQWKHSURMHFWLV
GHOD\HGE\WZRZHHNVZKHUHUP$LQFXUVDQHWORVVRI $600
(= 2x$750 - $ZKLOHUP%VXIIHUVDQHWORVVRI $500
(=2x$850 - $ 1200).
4. (Win-Win)LUPV$DQG%FDQQHJRWLDWHDPXWXDOO\EHQHcial deal, in which, both keep their task durations and thus
lose nothing.
Exhibit 8. A simple example: the scenarios and pay,0,#/*0+!
Keep
A:
(Lose-Win)
(Win-Win)
Delay
A:
B:
(Lose-Lose)
B:
(Win-Lose)
Firm A
Delay
Keep
Firm B
86
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