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3 1.

.

(1.1)
n( t )
,
P * (t) =
N
n(t) - , t; N- , ; *(t) - .

(1.2)
N n( t )
,
q * (t) =
N
N-n(t)- , t; q*(t) -
.

(1.3)
n( t )
f * (t) =
,
N t
n(t) - (t, t+t); f*(t) -
; t - e.

(1.4)
n( t )
* (t) =
,
t n( t )

n(t)- , t; n(t) - (t, t+t) ; *(t)- .


(1.5)
1 N
mt * = t i ,
N i =1
ti - i- ; N- ,
; mt* - .
mt* (1.5)
N . mt*
m
(1.6)
m *t n i t cp.i ,
i =1

ni - i- ;
t.i = (ti-1+ti)/2 ; m=tk/t ; t=ti+1-ti ; ti-1 - i- ; ti- i-
; tk - , ; t- .

D *t =

1
N 1

(t

m*t ) 2 ,

(1.7)

i =1

Dt*- .

1.1. 1000 , 3000
. 80 . P*(t), q*(t) t = 3000 .
ee. N= 1000; n(t)=1000-80=920; N-n(t)=1000-920=80. (1.1) (1. 2)

P * (3000) =

n( t )
N

q * (3000) =

N n( t )
N

920
1000

= 0.92,

80
1000

= 0.08,

q * (3000) = 1 P * (3000) = 1 0.92 = 0.08.

1.2. 1000 . 3000


. 80 , 3000 - 4000 . 50 .
3000 - 4000 .
. N=1000; t=3000 ; t =1000 ; n(t)=50; n(t)=920.
(1.3) (1.4)

f * (t ) = f * ( 3000 ) =

(t ) = (3000) =

n ( t )
N t

n ( t )
t n ( t )

50
10001000

= 5 10 51 /

100

= 5 10 3 1/

100 200

1.3. N = 400 . t = 3000 200 , .. n(t) = 400-200=200. (t, t+t) , t= 100 , 100 , .. n(t)= 100. *(3000),
P*(3100), f*(3000), *(3000).
. (1.1)
P * (3000) =

n( t )
N

200
400

= 0,5.

P * (3100) =

n( t )
N

100
400

= 0,25.

(1.3) (1.4),
n( t )
100
f * ( t ) = f * ( 3000) =
=
= 2,5 10 3 (1/)
N t 400 100
n( t)
100
( t ) = ( 3000 ) =
=
= 5 10 3 (1/)
t n ( t ) 100 200
1.4. 6 .
ti (ti - 6 i- ) : t1 =280 ; t2 = 350 ; t3 =400
; t4 =320 ; t5 =380 ; t6 =330 .
.

. (1.5)
1 N
280 + 350 + 400 + 320 + 380 + 330 2060
mt* = t i =
=
= 343,3 .
N i =1
6
6
1.5.
7 . :
t1 =12.; t2=23.; t3 =15.; t4=9.; t5=17.; t6=28.; t7=25.; t8=31. mt* .
.
1 n
12 + 23 + 15 + 9 + 17 + 28 + 25 + 31 160
mt* = t i =
=
= 20 .
n i =1
8
8
1.6. 45 45 , .1.1. m*.
1.1
ni
ni
ni
ti,.
ti,.
ti,.
0-5
1
30-35
4
60-65
3
5-10
5
35-40
3
65-70
3
10-15
8
40-45
0
70-75
3
15-20
2
45-50
1
75-80
1
20-25
5
50-55
0

25-30
6
55-60
0

t p.1

.
= 2,5; t p.2 = 7,5; t p.3 = 12,5; t p.4 = 17,5; t p.5 = 22,5; t p.6 = 27,5; t p.7 = 32,5; t p.8 = 37,5; t p.9 = 42,5;

t p.10 = 47,5; t p.11 = 52,5; t p.12 = 57,5; t p.13 = 62,5; t p.14 = 67,5; t p.15 = 72,5; t cp.16 = 77,5; N = 45; m = 16.

(1.6),
m*t

1 m
1 2,5 + 5 7,5 + 8 12,5 + 2 17,5 + 5 22,5 + 6 27,5 + 4 32,5 +
n i t .i =

45
N i =1

+3 37,5 + 0 42,5 + 1 47,5 + 0 52,5 + 0 57,5 + 3 62,5 + 3 67,5 + 3 72,5 + 1 77,5

1427,5
= 31,7 .
45


1.7. 100 . 4000 . 50 . 4000 - 4100 . 20 .
f*(t),*(t) t=4000 .
1.8. 100 .
4000 . 50 . p*(t) q*(t) t=4000 .

1.9. 1000 10 2.
1000 - 1100 . . f*(t), *(t) t =1000
.
1.10. 1000 . 3000 . 80 . 3000 - 4000 . 50 .
p*(t) q*(t) t=4000 .
1.11. 1000 . t=1300 .
288 . 1300-1400 .
13 . p*(t) t=1300.
t=1400 .; f*(t), *(t) t =1300 .
1.12. 45 . t=60 .
35 . 60-65 . 3 . p*(t) t=60. t=65 .; f*(t), *(t) t =60 .
1.13. 45 , 80- , 45 , .1.2. mt*.
1.2.
ni
ni
ni
ti,.
ti,.
ti,.
0-10
19
30-40
3
60-70
1
10-20
13
40-50
0

20-30
8
50-60
1

1.14. 8 .
ti (ti - i- ):
t1 =560.; t2=700.; t3 =800.; t4=650.; t5=580.; t6=760.; t7=920.; t8=850.

.
1.15. 6 . : t1 =15.; t2=20.; t3 =10.;
t4=28.; t5=22.; t6=30.
mt* .
1.16. 1000 . t=11000 .
410 . 11000-12000 .
40 . p*(t) t=11000 . t=12000 .,
f*(t), *(t) t=11000 .

3 2.

,
t

p( t ) = exp( ( t )dt ) = 1 f ( t )dt;

(2.1)

q ( t ) = 1 p( t );

(2.2)

dq ( t )
dp( t )
=
;
dt
dt
f ( t)
( t) =
;
p( t )

(2.3)

f (t) =

(2.4)

m t = p( t )dt ,

(2.5)

p(t) - 0 t; q(t) - 0 t; f(t)-


;
(t)- c ; mt - .
(2.1) - (2.5)

(2.6)
p(t ) = e t ;
(2.7)
q(t ) = 1 e t ;
t
(2.8)
f (t ) = e ;
(2.9)
e t
(t ) = t = ;
e
(2.10)
1
mt =
.

(2.1) - (2.5)

p(t ) = 0,5 (U );
q(t ) = 0,5 + (U );

(U )
;
f (t ) =
t
(t) =

U=

t mt

(U ) =

(U ) =

(2.11)

;
U

1
2

U2
2

dU ;

(2.12)

1
2

( U )
1

,
(t) 0.5 (U )

(U) - ,

U2
2

(2.13)
(2.14)

(0)=0 ;

(2. 15)

(-U) =-(U) ;

(2.16)

()=0.5 .

(2.17)

.7.13 [ 1 ] .
(U) .7.17 [ 1 ].
mt - ; t2 - ;
- .
(2.1) - (2.5)

p(t) = e at ;

(2.18)

q (t) = 1 e at ;

(2.19)

f (t ) = akt k 1 p(t ) ;
(t ) = akt k 1 ;
1 1

k k
m(t ) =
,
1

(2.20)
(2.21)
(2.22)

ak
a,k - . (x) - -, .7.18 [ 1 ] .
(2.1) - (2.5)

(2.23)
t2

p(t ) = exp
;
2
2 t
(2.24)
t2

q(t ) = 1 exp
;
2
2 t
(2.25)
t2
t

f (t ) = 2 exp
;
2
t
2 t
(2.26)
t
(t ) = 2 ;

m(t ) = t

(2.27)

t - ; - .
.
2.1.
=2.510-5 1/.


p(t),q(t),f(t),mt t=1000.
. (2.6), (2.7), (2.8), (2.10) p(t),q(t),f(t),mt .
1. :
5 t
p(t ) = e t = e 2.510
.
.7.14 [ 1 ]
5 1000
p(1000) = e 2.510
= e 0.025 = 0.9753 .
2. q(1000).
q(1000)=1-p(1000)=0.0247 .
3.
5 t
f (t ) = (t ) p(t ) = 2.5 10 5 e 2.510
;
5

1000
f (1000) = 2.5 10 5 e 2.510
= 2.5 10 5 0.9753 = 2.439 10 5 1/.
4.
1
1
mt = =
= 40000 .
2.5 10 5
2. 2. mt =8000 , t =2000 . p(t),f(t),(t),mt t=10000 .
. (2.11), (2.12), (2.13),(2.14) p(t), f(t), (t),mt.
1.
p(t)=0.5(U) ;
U=(t-mt)/t ;
U=(10000-8000)/2000=1; (1)=0.3413 ;
p(10000)=0.5-0.3413=0.1587.
2. f(t)
(t m t ) 2
1
f (t) =
exp
.
2
2 t
2 t

(U ) =

1
2

U2
2

; ( U ) = (U ) .

f(t)=(U)/t ; U=(t-mt)/t ;
f(1000)=(1)/2000=0.242/2000=12.110-5 1/.
3. (t)
(t)=f(t)/p(t);
(10000)=f(10000)/p(10000)=12.110-5 /0.1587=76.410-5 1/.
4.
mt = 8000 .
2.3. .
p(t),f(t),(t),mt t=1000 , t=1000 .
. (2.23), (2.25), (2.27),(2.26) p(t),f(t),
mt ,(t).
1. p(t)

t2
p( t ) = exp
;
2
2 t
1000 2
0.5
p(1000) = exp
= e = 0.606.
2 1000 2
2. f(t)
f(t)=tp(t)/t2 ;
f(1000)=10000.606/10002=0.60610-3 1/.
3.
(t)= t/t 2 ;
(1000)=1000/10002 =10-3 1/.
4.
mt = t

= 1000 1253
= 1253 .
.

2.4. k=1.5; a=10-4 1/, t=100 . p(t),f(t),(t),mt .


. 1. p(t) (2.18) .

p(t)=exp(-atk ); p(100)=exp(-10-4 1001.5 ); x=1001.5 ;


lg x=1,5lg 100=3; x=1000; p(100)=e-0,1 =0,9048.
2. f(t)
f(t)=aktk-1 p(t);
f(100)=10-4 1,51000,5 0,90481,3510-3 1/.
3. (t)
(t)=f(t)/p(t) ;
(100)=f(100)/p(100)=1,3510-3 /0.90481,510-3 1/.
4. mt
1
1 1
1


15
,
, 0,666 (0,666)
k k 15
mt =
;
=
=
1/ k
4 1/1, 5
(10 )
a
10 2,666
z(z)=(z+1),
(1666
, )
;
mt =
2, 666
10
x=10-2,666 ;lg x=-2,666lg10=-2,666= 3,333 ; x=0,00215.
.7.18 [1],
m t =0,90167/0,00215=426 .
2.5.
f (t) = c1 1e 1t + c 2 2e 2t .
: p(t), (t),mt.
. 1. .
(2.1)

t
t
t

p( t ) = 1 f ( t )dt = 1 c 1 1e 1t dt + c 2 2 e 2 t dt = 1 c1e 1t
0
0
0

t
0

c2 e 2t

t
0

]=

= 1 c 1 e 1t + c 1 c 2 e 2 t + c 2 = 1 ( c 1 + c 2 ) + c 1 e 1t + c 2 e 2 t .

1+ 2

f ( t )dt = 1

c e
1

1t

dt + c 2 2 e 2 t dt = c 1 + c 2 = 1 .
0

P ( t ) = c 1 e 1t + c 2 e 2 t .
2.

f ( t ) c 1 1 e 1t + c 2 2 e 2 t
( t) =
=
.
p( t )
c 1 e 1t + c 2 e 2 t
2. . (2.5)

c
c
m t = p( t )dt = c 1 e 1t dt + c 2 e 2 t dt = 1 + 2 .
1 2
0
0
0
.

2.6. 120 0.9. ,


. t =120 ., .
2.7. 640 . , . 120 .,
t=120 .
2.8.
mt = 8000 ., t =1000 . p(t) , f(t) , (t) , mt t=8000 .
2.9.
t= 1860 . (t), f(t),(t) t = 1000 .
2.10. =2,6 ; = 1,65*10-7 1/.
(t), f(t), (t) t=150
. .
2.11. t=1000 . (1000)=0,95.
.
f(t), (t), mt.

2.12. 1260 .
.
P(t), f(t), (t) t=1000 .
2.13. ,
f(t)=2e-t (1-e-t ) .
P(t), (t), mt.
2.14. , P(t)=3e-t-3e-2t+e-3t.
P(t), (t), mt.
2.15. t = 1300 ,
mt=1500 . t= 100 .
3.
.

, .
, .
t
n

Pc(t) =P1(t)*P2(t)...Pn(t)=

P ( t ),
i =1

(3.1)

i(t) - i- t.
i (t) =(t)

Pc(t)=Pn(t).

(3.2)

(t) i(t) .
:
n

Pc ( t ) = exp( i ( t )dt )

(3. 3)

i =1 0

Pc ( t ) = exp( c ( t )dt ),

(3.4)

c ( t ) = i ( t ).

(3.5)

i =1

i(t) i- ; (t) .
(0, t )

q c ( t ) = 1 i ( t ).

(3.6)

i =1

fc(t)
fc (t) =

dPc ( t )
.
dt


f (t)
c (t) = c .
Pc ( t )

(3.7)

(3.8)

m tc = Pc ( t )dt.

(3. 9)


i ( t ) = i = const .

(3.10)

c (t) = i = c ;

(3.11)

Pi ( t ) = exp( t ) ;
Pc ( t ) = e c t ;
fc (t) = c * e ct ;
q c (t) = 1 e ct ;
1
1
m tc =
= n
;
c
i

(3.12)
(3.13)
(3.14)
(3.15)

i =1

(3.16)

i =1

1
m tc =
,
i

(3.17)

mti - i - .
, .
(t), , :

P1 ( t ) P2 ( t )... Pn ( t ) 1 q i ( t ),
i =1

Pin ( t ) = 1 Nq i ( t ),

n P ( t ) = 1 q ( t ) / n,
i
i

(3.18)

qi (t) -- i - .
.
3.1. . 1=0,16*10-3 1/ = const.

2=0,23*10-4t 1/, 3=0,06*10-6t2,6 1/.
100 .
. (3.3)
t
t
t
n t


Pc ( t ) = exp( i ( t )dt ) = exp 1dt + 2 dt + 3 dt =
0
i =1 0
0
0

2

t 3, 6
4 t
6
= exp 1 t + 0,23 * 10
+ 0,06 * 10 *
.
2
3,6

t=100


100 2
100 3,6
3
4
6
Pc (100) = exp 0,16 * 10 * 100 + 0,23 * 10 *
+ 0,06 * 10 *
0,33 .
2
3,6

3.2. ,
: mt1=160 ; mt2 =320 ; mt3 = 600 .
. .
. (3.17)
1 =

1
1
1
1
1
1
;2 =
;3 =
.
=
=
=
m t1 160
m t 2 320
m t 3 600

i - i - . (3.11)

c = 1 + 2 + 3 =

1
1
1
+
+
0,011 1/ .
160 320 600

c - .
(3.16) :
m tc =

1
1
=
91 .
c 0,011

3.3. 12600 , =0,32*10-6 1/. Pc(t), qc(t), fc(t), mtc, t=50 .


Pc(t) - t ;
qc(t) t ;
fc(t) T ;
mt .
. (3.11)
=*n=0,32*10-6*12600=4,032*10-3 1/ .
(3.13)

(t)=e-c ; (50)=e-4?032*0,001*500,82 .
(3.15)

qc(t)=ce-c =cPc(t); qc(50)=1-Pc(50) 0,18 .


(3.14)
t

fc(t)=ce-c =cPc(t); fc(50)=4,032*10-3*0,82=3,28*10-3 1/.


(3.16)

mt=1/c=1/4,032*10-3250 .

3.4. . t = 100 : 1(100) = 0,95; 2(100) = 0,97.


.
.
. :
(100)=1(100)*2(100)=0,95*0,97=0,92 .
,
t
(t)=e-c

(100)=0,92=e-c100 .
.7.14[1]

*1000,083 =0,83*10-3 1/ .

mt=1/c=1/(0,83*10-3)=1200 .
3.5. t P(t) = 0,9997. ,
n = 100 .
. c(t)= Pn(t)=(0,9997)100.
c(t) ,
(3.18). q(t)=1-P(t)=1-0,9997=0,0003.
c(t) 1-nq(t)=1-100*0,0003=0,97.
..6. t c(t)=0,95.
n= 120 . .
. , Pi ( t ) = n Pc ( t ).
(t) , (t) (3.18).
qc(t)=1- c(t)=1-0,95=0,05.

q (t)
0,05
Pi ( t ) = n Pc ( t ) 1 c
= 1
0,9996.
n
120
3.7. 12600 ,
=0,32*10-6 1/.
t = 50 .
. (.11)
=*n=0,32*10-6*12600=4,032*10-3 1/.
(.13)
t
c(t)= -c

c(50)= -4,032*0,001*50 0,82.


3.8. 2000 ,
= 0,33 * 10-5 1/.
t = 200
.
3.9.
200000 , =0,2 * 10-6 1/ .
t = 24
.

3.10. 6000 , . = 0,16*10-6 1/.


t = 50 .
3.11. n = 5 . t , : P1(t)=0,98; P2(t)=0,99;
P3(t)=0,998; P4(t)=0,975; P5(t)=0,985. .
3.12. , : mt1=83 ; mt2=220 ; mt3=280 ; mt4=400 ; mt5=700 .
.
.
.1. .
t = 50 : P1(50)=0,98; P2(50)=0,99; P3(50)=0,998;
P4(50)=0,975; P5(50)=0,985. .
.
4
.

1,2,....
() .
, ,
( .4.1.).
qc(t)
m

q c ( t ) = q j ( t ),

(4.1)

j= 0

qj(t) - j - .

m

Pc ( t ) = 1 1 P j ( t ) ,
j= 0

j(t) - j -
j(t) =(t), j = 0, 1, . . . , m ,

q c ( t ) = q m+1 ( t );
m +1
Pc ( t ) = 1 [1 P( t )] .

(4.2)

(4.3)

P j ( t ) = P ( t ) = e t ;

q c ( t ) = (1 e t ) m+1 ;
m +1
Pc ( t ) = 1 1 e t
;

m
1
1
m tc =
.

i=0 1 + i

(4.4)

, , n . .4.2.
n . m, . . m.
( ).
j -
n

P j ( t ) = Pij ( t ); j = 0,1,.., m,

(4.5)

j=1

ij(t), j=0,1,2,...m; i=1,2,3,...,n - ij.


j -
n

q c ( t ) = 1 Pij ( t ) .

(4.6)

i =1


m
n

q c ( t ) = 1 Pij ( t ). .
j= 0
i =1

(4.7)


m
n

Pc ( t ) = 1 1 Pij ( t ) .
j= 0
i =1

(4.8)

: , ..
ij(t)=Pi(t) .

(4.9)

q c ( t ) = 1 Pi ( t )
i =1

m +1

(4.10)

p c ( t ) = 1 1 p i ( t )
i =1

m +1

(4.11)

, . .
t
Pi(t)=e-i .

(4.12)

(5.10), (5.11)
t m+1
qc(t)=(1-e-0 )
,

(4.13)

Pc(t)=1-(1-e-0 )m+1,
(4.14)

0 =

(4.15)

i =1

0 , n .
6
m
dp ( t )
fc (t) = c
= 0 ( m + 1)e 0 t 1 e 0 t .
dt

(4.16)

0t
1 e 0t
f c ( t ) 0 ( m + 1)e
c ( t) =
=
m +1
p c (t)
1 1 e 0t


m
1
m tc = T0
,
j= 0 1 + j

(4.17)

(4.18)

0 = 1/0, - .
.
4.1. 10 ,
mt = 1000 . ,
. mtc, fc(t)

(t) t = 50 :
) ,
) .
.

i ,

i=1

; i - i - ; n = 10.
i=1/mti = 1/1000=0,001; i = 1,2, . . .,n ; =i;
c=n=0,001*10=0,01 1/;
mtc=1/c=100 ;
fc(t)=c(t) Pc(t);
t
c(50)=c; Pc(t)=e-c ;
t

fc(50)=ce-c =0,01*e-0,01*506*10-3 1/;


c(50)=0,01 1/.
)

m tc =

1+ j

m=1 ;

j=0

pc (t ) = 1 (1 e 0t )

m +1

m tc =

1
1
1 + = 150 ;
0.01
2

; 0 =c =0.01 1/ ;

pc = 1 (1 e 0t ) = 2e 0t e 20t ;
dp (t )
f c (t ) = c = 20 e 0t (1 e 0t ) ;
dt
t
f (t ) 20 (1 e 0 )
c (t ) = c =
;
pc (t )
2 e 0t
fc(50)4.810-3 1/ ; c(50)5.710-3 1/ .
2

4.2. . =10-2 1/. (t) t=10 , mtc, fc(t), (t) .


. n=1; i= ; 0=n=;m=1. (4.14)
t
(t)=1-(1-e- )2;
(10)=1-(1-e-0,1)2 .
.7.14 [1]

e-0,1=0,9048 .

c(10)=1-(1-0,9048)2 =1-0,095221-0,01=0,99 .

mt. (4.4)
1 1 1
1
1
m tc =
= 1 + = 150 .

2
i=0 1 + i
fc(t).

dp c ( t )
= 2 e t 1 e t .
dt
(t).
t
t
2 1 e t
f c ( t ) 2e 1 e
=
=
.
c (t) =
p c (t)
2 e t
e t 2 e t

fc (t) =

3 4.. n = 5000 .
.

(t) = 0,9 t =10 .,
.
.
Pc(t)=1-(1-e-nt)2

Pc(t)=1-[1-Pn(t)]2,

P(t)=e-t .
(t) .

1-[1-Pn(t)]20,9,

p( t ) 1 01
.

.
1 01

1n

1n

1/n -

(1

1
01
. = 1 6.32 10 5 .
5000
, P(t)= (-t)1-t ,
01
.

1 5000

1-t1-6,32*10-5

(6,32*10-5)/t=(6,32*10-5)/10=6,32*10-6 1/.
.

3 4.4. . : , . : 1= 4*10-4 1/; 2= 2,5*10-4 1/; 3= 3*10-4


1/. t=100
:
) ; ) .
4.5. .4.3. Pc(t),
mtc, fc(t), c(t). , .

4.6. , ( n = 3)
. =5*10-4 1/. Pc(t), mtc, fc(t), c(t) .
4. 7. .4.4. (t). , .
4.8. I,II,III . : 1, 2, 3. Pc(t) :
) ;
) .
4.9. .4.5. ,
. : 1= 0,3*10-3 1/; 2= 0,7*10-3 1/. t = 100 c,
,
t=100 .
4.10. , ,
.
=2*10-3 1/, =1*10-3 1/, . .4.6.
c(t), mt, fc(t), (t).
4.11. .4.7. ,
. ,
1, 2.
4.12. n = 4000 .
(t) = 0,9 t = 100 .
,
, : ) ; ) 6 .
4.13. 6 .
6 y(ti) ( 0, ti) 0,9. , ( 0, ti )
: ) ; ) ; )
.
4.14. , 1=120,54*10-6 1/
2=185,66*10-6 1/.
( 1 2) (..4.8) . (t) , mt, fc(t) (t) . (t) t = 20 .
5

( )
() .
.

. ,
.

m
i
a

q c ( t ) = 1 e 0 t 1 + i 1 e 1t ,
(5.1)
i =1 i !

i 1


(5.2)
a i = j + 0 .
1
j= 0

1 -
; 0 -
; m - .

m
i
a

Pc ( t ) = 1 q c ( t ) = e 0 t 1 + i 1 e 1t .
(5.3)
i =1 i !

1 m 1
(5.4)
m tc = p c ( t )dt =
,

1
+
ik
i
0
=
0
0

k= 1.
(5.5)
0
fc(t) .

m
m
i
i 1

ai
a

(5.6).
f c ( t ) = 0 e o t 1 + i 1 e 1t 1 e 1t
1 e 1t .
0
i =1 ( i 1)!

i =1 i !

(t) .

m
ai

1 e 1t

fc ( t)
1 1t i =1 (i 1)!
c (t) =
= 0 1
e
m
a
p c (t)
0
1 + i 1 e 1t

i =1 i !

i 1

(5.7)

1 =0 () .

q c ( t ) = 1 e 0t
i=0

( 0 t ) i
.
i!

(5.8)

Pc ( t ) = 1 q c ( t ) = e 0 t
i=0

( 0 t) i
.
i!

(5.9)

m tc = p c ( t )dt =
0

m+1
.
0

(5.10)
fc(t) .

fc (t) =

dp c ( t ) m0 +1 m 0 t
=
t e .
dt
m!

(5.11)

(t) .

c (t) =

fc (t)
=
p c (t)

m0 +1 t m
.
m
( 0 t ) i
m!
i!
i=0

(5. 12)

5.1. 10 ,
mt = 1000 . ,
. (t),
mt, fc(t) (t)
t = 50 :
) ,
) ( ).
:

c =

i=1

, i i - ; n = 10,
1
1
=
= 0 . 0 0 1 ; i = 1 , n ; = i ,
i =
m ti
1000
c = n = 0.001 10 = 0.01 1/ ,
1
m tc =
= 100 ; pc(t)= e c t ;
c
fc(t)=c(t)pc(t) ; c(50)=c ;
fc(50)=c e c t =0.01e-0.0150610-3 1/ ;
c(50)=0.01 1/ .
m+1
; m=1 ;
)
mtc=
c
2
mtc=
=200 .
0.01
c(t)
p c (t) = e

0t

( 0 t) i
= e 0 t (1 + 0 t ).

i!
i=0
m

0= ,

Pc(t)=e- (1+ct) .
fc(t).
dp ( t )
fc (t) = c
= c e c t (1 + c t ) + c e c t = 2c te c t .
dt

c (t) .

fc (t)
2c te c t
2c t
c(t)=
=
=
.
p c ( t ) e c t (1 + c t ) 1 + c t
0 Pc(50), fc(50), c(50).
pc(50)=e-0.0150(1+0.0150)=e-0.51.5=0.60651.50.91 ,
fc(50)=0.01250e-0.0150=0.010.5e-0.5310-3 1/ ,
f (50) 3 10 3
c(50)= c
=
3.3 10 3 1/ .
p c (50)
0.91
5.2. 0=0,4*10-3 1/. , ( ).
1= 0,06*10-3 1/. t = 100 ., mt,
fc(t) (t).
. m = 1. (5.),
1
a

p c ( t ) = e 0 t 1 + i (1 e 1t ) i = e 0 t 1 + a 1 (1 e 1t ) ;
i =1 i !

i 1


ai = j + 0 ;
1
j= 0


a1 = j + 0 = 0 .
1 1
j= 0

p c ( t ) = e 0 t 1 + 0 0 e 1t .
1 1

(5.13)
p c (100) = e

0.410 3 100

0.4 10 3
0.4 10 3 0.06103 100

e
1 +
=
0.06 10 3 0.06 10 3

40 40 0.006
= e 0.04 1 +
e
0.96[1+6.67-6.67(1-0.006)]0.998 .

6
6
mt (5.4.).

1
0
1
1
1
1
1
=
m tc =
=
1+
1 +
=

1 0
1 0 1 + 0
0 i=0
1+ i

1+
0
0

1
0.4 10 3
=
1 +
= 4668 .
0.4 10 3 0.46 10 3
fc(t) .

(5.13)

dp c ( t )

= 0 e 0 t 1 + 0 0 e 1t + e 0 t 0 e 1t =
dt
1 1


+ 0 0t

= 0 e 0 t 1 + 1 1 e 1t e 1t = 0 1
e
1 e 1t .

0
0
1

fc (t) =

(5.13)

+ 0 0t
0
p c (t) = 1
e 1
e 1t .
1
1 + 0

(t).
f ( t)
c (t) = c
=
p c (t)

0 1 e 1t

.
0
1t
e
1
1 + 0
5.3. t=1000 . 0,95, . . (1000) = 0,95. , ( ).
,
, fc(t) (t) .
. m = 1. (5.9),
i
m
0 t)
(
0t
p c (t) = e
= e 0 t (1 + 0 t ).
(5.14)
i
!
i=0
,

(5.15)
P(t)=e-t,
(t)- ; 0 .
(5.15)
P(1000)=e-o1000 =0,95 .
.7.14 [1]
0*1000=0,051,

0=0,051/10000,5*10-4 1/.

(5.14)
Pc(1000)=0,95(1+0,05)=0,9975 .
mtc (5.10).
mtc = (m+1)/0=2/0=2/(0,5*10-4) = 40000 .
,

mtc =1/0=20000 .
fc(t) (5.11).
2
f c ( t ) = 0 te 0 t = 20 te 0 t .
1!
(t).
f (t)
2 t e 0 t
20 t
c (t) = c
= 00t
=
.
p c ( t ) e (1 + 0 t ) 1 + 0 t

.
5.4. . (.5.1). .
Pc(t), mtc , fc(t) , (t).
5.5. .5.2. Pc(t), fc(t) ,
(t) . (t) t = 0.
5.6. .5.3, ,,, -
. Pc(t) .
5.7. .5.4. Pc(t) .
5.8.
(=8*10-3 1/) (0 = 8*10-4 1/) .
Pc(t) ,
mtc. Pc(t) t = 20 .
5.9. 1, 2 3, .
0=10-3 1/. 1 2, 2 3. 0..
,
Pc(t) , mtc .
Pc(t) t=100 .
5.10. .
mt= 200 .
mtc : ) ; ) .
6
.


(.6.1.). .
i - .
m

q i ( t ) = q ij ( t ) ; i = 1, n,

(6.1)

j= 0

qij(t) - ij (0, t).


j- .
mi

p i ( t ) = 1 q i ( t ) = 1 1 p ij ( t ) ; i = 1, n ,
j= o

(6.2)

Pij(t) - ij
(0,t); mi - j- .

p c (t) = p i (t)
i =1

mi
n

p c ( t ) = 1 1 p ij ( t ) .
i =1
j= 0

mi=m=const

(6.3)

Pij(t)=P(t) ;

(6.4)

Pc(t) =[1-[1-P(t)]m+1]n .

(6.5)

Pij(t)=Pi(t),

(6.6)

(6.)

p c ( t ) = 1 [1 p i ( t )]
i =1

m i +1

(6.7)
t
, Pi(t)=e-i ,
n

p c (t) = 1 1 e it
i =1

m i +1

}.

(6.8)

(6.5)

p c ( t ) = 1 1 e t

m +1

},
n

(6.9)

m tc = p c ( t )dt.
0

(6.9) (6.10),

(6.10)

m tc =

( n 1)! m
1
,

( m + 1) j= 0 j ( j + 1)K ( j + n 1)

(6.11)

j=(j+1)/(m+1) .

6.1. . , .
t =5000 .

.6.1.
6.1.

, 10-5 1/
2,16
0,23
0,32
0,78
0,09

1
5
3
1
1

. mi = m= 1, n = 11. ,
.6.1., (6.8)
11

p c (5000) = 1 e i 5000
i =1

] }.
2

i<<1, : 1-exp(-5000i)5000i.

11

p c (5000) 1 (5000 i )
i =1

-6

11

11

1 (5000 i ) 2 = 1 5000 2 2i =
i =1

i =1

-10

=1-2510 [2.16 +50.23 +30.32 +0.78 +0.09 ]10 0.985 .


6.2.
.6.2. : 1=0,23*10-3 1/;
2=0,5*10-4 1/; 3=0,4*10-3 1/. , .
, ,
.
.

m tc = p c ( t )dt.

(6.12)

Pc(t) - .
Pc(t) =PI(t)*PII(t) *PIII(t) .

(6. 13)

PI(t), PII(t), PIII(t) - I, .


PI(t) =1-qI(t); qI(t)=[1-P1(t) ]2;
PI(t) =1-[1-P1(t) ]2=2P1(t) -P12(t);
PII(t) =P2(t) ;
PIII(t) =1-qIII(t); qIII(t)=[1-P3(t) ]2;
PIII(t) =1-[1-P3(t) ]2=2P3(t) -P32(t) .
(16.13)
Pc(t) =[2P1(t) -P12(t)]P2(t) [2P3(t) -P32(t)]=
=4P1(t) P2(t) P3(t) - 2P12(t)P2(t) P3(t)- 2P1(t)P2(t) P32(t)+P12(t)P2(t) P32(t).
P1(t) = e

1t

; P2(t) = e t ; P3(t) = e t ,
2

Pc(t) =4 e ( 1 + 2 + 3 ) t - 2 e ( 2 1 + 2 + 3 ) t - e ( 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) t + e ( 2 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) t

Pc(t) =4e-0,68*0,001*t-2e-0,91*0,001*t-2e-1,08*0,001*t+e-1,31*0,001*t .

(6.14)

(6.14) (6.12),
4
2
2
1
m tc =

+
1 + 2 + 3 2 1 + 2 + 3 1 + 2 + 2 3 2 1 + 2 + 2 3

4
2
m tc = 3
3

10 (0.23 + 0.05 + 0.4) 10 (0.46 + 0.05 + 0.4)


2
1
3
+ 3
2590 .
10 (0.23 + 0.05 + 0.8) 10 (0.46 + 0.05 + 0.8)

,
c (t) =

fc (t)
.
p( t )

O fc(t).
dp ( t )
fc (t) = c
= 4( 1 + 2 + 3 ) e ( 1 + 2 + 3 ) t 2( 2 1 + 2 + 3 ) e ( 2 1 + 2 + 3 ) t
dt
2 ( 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) e ( 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) t + ( 2 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) e ( 2 1 + 2 + 2 3 ) t

(6.15)

(6.16)

f c ( t ) = 10 3 (2.72e 0.6810

(6.15)
c (t) =

182
. e 0.9110

10 3 2.72e 0.6810

4e 0.6810

2.16e 1.0810

. e 0.9110
182

2e 0.9110

+ 131
. e 1.3110
).

2.16e 1.0810

2e 1.0810

. e 1.3110
+ 131

+ e 1.3110

).

6,3. . 6.3. ,
, . = 1,33*10-31/. fc(t) ,mtc, Pc(t) , (t) .

m tc = p c ( t )dt

(6.17)

Pc(t)=PI(t)PII(t)= P2 ( t ) , .. PI(t)=PII(t) ;
PI(t)=1-qI(t) ; qI(t)=q2(t) ; q(t)=1-P(t) ; P(t)=e-t ;
q(t)=1-e-t ; qI(t)=(1-e-t)2 ; PI(t)=1-(1-e-t)2 ;
Pc(t)=[1-(1-e-t)2]2

Pc(t )=(1-1+2e- t-e- 2t)2 = 4e- 2t - 4e- 3t + e- 4t .

(6.18)

(6.18) (6.17),

m tc = (4e 2 t 4e 3t + e 4 t )dt =
0

m tc =

2 4
1
11

+
=
;
3 4 12

11
= 690 .
12 133
. 10 3

0 fc(t) ,
dp ( t )
fc (t) = c
= 8e 2 t 12e 3t + 4e 4 t = 4e 2 t (2 3e t + e 2 t ).
dt
(t).
2 t
2 3e t + e 2 t
f c ( t) 4 e
c (t) =
=
=
p c (t)
e 2 t 4 4 e t + e 2 t

4 2 3e

+e

(2 e )
t

(
)
) = 4 (1 e ) (2 e ) = 4 (1 e ) .
2e
(2 e )

2 t

6.4. n=5000 .
. -

c Pc(t) = 0,9 t = 10 , .
,
:

p c ( t ) = 1 [1 p( t )]

},
n

(t) - .

1 [1 p( t )]

0.9,

p( t ) 1 1 n 0.9 .
n 0.9 = (1 01
.)
1/n
,
1
01
. = 1 2 10 5 .
(1 01. )1 5000 1
5000
, P(t) =exp(-t)1-t,
1n

1
1
1 n 0.9 =
1 1 + 2 10 5 4.4 10 4 1/.
t
10

6.5. ..4. ,
. 1=0,3*10-3 1/, 2=0,7*10-3 1/.

t = 100 .
6.7. , , .
=2*10-3 1/ =1*10-3 1/ .
... Pc(t)
, mtc, fc(t) , (t).
6.8, .6.7., .
Pc(t) fc(t).
6.9. :
I,, . : 1,2,3. Pc(t) :
)
) .
6.10. n =4000 . Pc(t) =0,9 t=100 . ,
,

. ) ; ) () .
6.11. , (n=) .
=5*10-4 1/. Pc(t)
t = 100 mtc .
6.12. , 1=120,54106 1/ 2=185,66106
1/.
2 (.
. 6.8). (t) ,
mtc, fc(t) (t) . (t) t=20 .
6.13. n=3 , .
=104 1/. (t) mtc.
7.

.
.
l (. 7.1.).
, h .

m =

l h
h

(7.1)

, .
c :

PC ( t ) =

lh

i=0

C li P 0l i ( t ) ( 1 ) j C i j P 0 j ( t ) ,
j=0

C li =

l!
.
i !( l i ) !

(7.2)

(t) - ; l - ; h ,
.
. 7.1 . , , ..

P0 ( t ) = e 0 t .

(7.3)

tc

Pc ( t ) d t =

lh

i=0

1
.
h + i

(7.4)

.
7.1. ,
18 . , 30 .
t = 600 , mtc, fc(t), (t) ,
= 0,5 10-3 1/.
. ,
36 . , , , ..
m = 2/2 , 4.
(7.2)
2

Pc (t ) = C P
i
4

4 i
0

i =0

(t ) ( 1) j Ci j P0 j (t ) =
j =0

= C40 P04 (t )C00 P00 (t ) + C41 P03 (t ) C10 P00 (t ) C11 P01 (t ) +

+C P (t ) C P (t ) C P (t ) + C P (t ) .
2
4

2
0

0
2

0
0

1
2

1
0

2
2

2
0


C40=1; C00=1; C41=4; C10=1; C11=1; C42=6; C20=1; C21=2; C22=1,

Pc(t)=6P02(t)- 8P03(t)+ 3P04(t).

P0(t)=exp(- t),
Pc(t)=6e - 2t- 8e - 3t+3e -4t.

t = 0,09.
Pc(600)=0,997.

(7.4)

tc

i= 0

1
13
=
7 2 2 0 .
2 + i
12

fc(t).

d Pc ( t )
= 1 2 e 2 t 2 4 e 3t + 1 2 e
dt
(t).
1 2 1 2 e t + e 2 t
f c (t)
c (t) =
=
.
Pc ( t )
6 8 e t + 3e 2 t
f c (t ) =

4 t

7.2. , ..
() .
Pc(t), mtc , fc(t)
c(t) , = 0,4
10-3 1/.
. , , .. , l = 5, ,
, h = 3, m = 2/3.
(7.2),
l h

Pc ( t ) = C P

l i
0

i
l

i =0

( t ) ( 1) Ci P0 ( t ) = C P
j

j =0

i =0

i
5

5 i
0

( t ) ( 1) j Ci j P0 j ( t ) =
j =0

= C P ( t ) C P ( t ) + C P ( t ) C P ( t ) C P ( t ) + C P ( t ) C 20 P00 ( t ) C 21 P01 ( t ) + C 22 P02 ( t )


0
5

5
0

0
0

0
0

1
5

4
0

0
1

0
0

1
1

1
0

2
5

3
0


C50=1; C00=1; C51=5; C10=1; C11=1; C52=10; C20=1; C21=2; C22=1,

PC(t)=P05(t)+5P04(t)[1P0(t)]+10P03(t)[12Po(t)+P02(t)]=
=6P05(t)15P04(t)+10P03(t).
P0(t)=exp(t),
Pc(t)=6e5t 15e4t+10e3t.
(7.4)

m tc =

i=0

1
1 1
1
1
47
=
+ =
= 1958 .
+
3+i
60
0 3 4 5

fc(t).

d Pc ( t )
= 3 0 e 5t 6 0 e 4 t + 3 0 e 3t =
dt
3 t 2 t
2et+1)=30e3t(1et)2.
=30e (e
(t).
fc (t)
3 0 (1 e t ) 2
c (t) =
=
.
Pc ( t )
6 e 2 t 1 5e t + 1 0
f c (t ) =


7.3. =0.83103 1/.
(m=1/2 ).
Pc(t) , mtc , fc(t) , c(t) .

7.4. =0.83103 1/ .
(m=2/3 ).
Pc(t) , fc(t),
(t) .
7.5. l=4
. =103 1/ ,
t=20 . ,
. Pc(t), mtc , fc(t),
c(t) . ,
?
7.6. . :
0=4103 1/ .
Pc (t)
mtc .
8.

.
.

Pc ( t ) = e

i= 0

( 0t)i
,
i!

(8.1)

0 = n - ;

- , n - ; m0 , .

m = m0 / n .
(8.2)

mtc = T0 (m0 + 1),
(8.3)
T0 - .
.
8.1. . , (. 8.1). . Pc (t) , mtc , fc (t) c (t) .
. n = 2; m0 = 1; 0 = n = 2.
(8.1)

Pc ( t ) = e

i=0

t)i
= e
i!
0

(1 +

t)

Pc ( t ) = e

2 t

(1 + 2 t ) .

mtc .

tc

= T0 (m

+ 1); T0 =

tc

1
1
2 =
.

fc(t).

f c (t ) =

dPc ( t )
= 2 e 2 t (1 + 2 t ) + 2 e 2 t
dt

f c ( t ) = 4 2 t e 2 t .
c(t).
f c (t)
4 2 t
c (t ) =
=
.
Pc ( t )
1 + 2 t
8.2. 1024
, .
3 , .
Pc(t) ,
mtc, fc(t), c(t). Pc(t)
t=10000 . , =0.12106 1/.
, - , ..
.
.
, . n=1024,
0=n=10240.12106 1.23104 1/, m0=3.
(8.1)
3

Pc ( t ) = e 0 t

i=0

( 0 t )i
2 t 2
3 t 3
= e 0 t ( 1 + 0 t + 0
+ 0
).
i!
2
6

mtc.

m tc = T 0 ( m 0 + 1 ) ; T 0 =

1
( 3 + 1 ) 3 2 5 0 0 .
1,2 3 1 0 4
fc(t).
m tc =

d Pc ( t )
1
=
40 t 3 e 0 t .
dt
6
c(t).
f c (t ) =

f (t )
1
c (t ) = c
=

Pc ( t )
6

1+

t +

40 t 3
20 t 2
2

30 t 3

6
Pc(t) t=10000.
(1,23 10 4 10 4 ) 2 (1,23 10 4 10 4 ) 3
1, 2310 4 10 4
4
4
Pc ( t ) = e
1 + 1,23 10 10 +
+
0,96.
2
6


8.3. 1024 . , . , , . ,
,
mtc=60 . , . mt=mti, i= 1 ,1 0 2 4 .
Pc(t), fc(t),
c(t) .
8.4. n ,
mti=mt=1/ , i= 1 , n . , m0 . mtc.
Pc(t), m 0 = 2, f c (t), (t) .
8.5. , , .
. . . , . : - 1 , - 2 , - 3 , - 4 - 5 . Pc(t) .
. 8.2. I - , II - , III .
8.6. n = 4 . = 610 -4 1/.
Pc (t) , m
tc , fc (t), (t). Pc (t)
t = 100 .
8.7. . = 410-4 1/.
. Pc (t)
, mtc ,

fc (t), c (t). Pc (t) t= 250 . Pc (t),


.

9.

.
.
, , .
, , , .
.
, , , .

, : .
2- .
.
() , -
.
.
:

Pj (t ) , , , ,
;
(, , );
;
, ,
.

- .
,
(t) K(t) K

K = lim K ( t ),
t

(9.1)

K = lim K ( t ).
t

K(t) , t . (t) , t .

(t)+K(t)=1;
(9.2)
+=1.

t . Pj (t ) = 0
.
,

~
P (t i ) , . .

(t ) =

P j ( t ),

(9.3)

j=1

n ; Pj(t) j .
.

K (t ) =

m + 1 n

Pl ( t ) ,

(9.4)

l=1

Pl(t) l ; m+1 - .


, k , (k+2) :
0 - ; 1 - ; j
j ; k+1 (k+1) .
, , ( k+1).

, ( ).
, =0.
, .
. 9.1.
:

P0 (t ) = P0(t)+P1(t) ;

:
:

Pj (t ) = Pj1(t)(+)Pj(t)+Pj+1(t) ;

j = 1, k; ;

(9.5)

:
:

P k +1 (t ) = Pk(t)Pk+1(t).

t (9.5) :
P0+P1=0 ;
:
:
Pj1 (+)Pj + Pj+1=0 ; j = 1, k; ;
:
:
Pk Pk+1=0.
(9.6)
k +1

Pj = 1.

(9.6)

(9.7)

j=0

(9.6) (9.7)

= Pk + 1 =

1
k +1

j=0

= 1 Pk + 1 = 1

(9.8)

1
k +1

j=0

, k+1 , (k+1)
( ), .
. 9.2. Pj(t)=0 :

= Pk + 1 =

1
k +1

j=0

( k + 1) !


j!

k + 1 j

(9.9)

K=1Pk+1 .
, k .9.3.
.9.4. - .
, :

1
k +1

j=0

1

j!

; K=1K ;

(9.10)

K
K

k +1

(9.10a)


= 1

k +1

k +1 j
k +1

j=0

k +1 j

, ,
.
k ,
.9.5. (k+1) , .

~
P (ti ) =

Pj (ti )

(9.11)

j=0

, t=0 , ..
P0(0)=1; P1(0)= ... =Pk+1(0)=0.


q~ ( t i ) = P k + 1 ( t i ) .
(9.12)

mt =

~
P (t )dt =

j=0

Pj (t )dt.

(9.13)

, .9.5. , , .
P(s) s=0. .

9.1. , , : .
, . .
,
. ,
.
, =5. .
. , :
0 - , .
1 - , .
2 - , .

t P0(t), P1(t),
P2(t). t P0 , P1 , P2 .
0
1 ,
K=P0+P1 .
(.9.6.)

P 0 (t ) = P0(t)+P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = P0(t)(+)P1(t)+2P2(t) ;

P 2 (t ) = P1(t)2P2(t) .
P0 P1 . , P0(t)+P1(t)+P2(t)=1, :

P0+P1=0 ;
P0(+)P1+2P2=0 ;
P0+P1+P2=1 .

P0 , P1 , P2 :

Pi =

i
,

, P0 , P1 , P2 ; i
, i
. , 0 , 1 .

( + )

0
= 0
1

( + )
1

0
2 = ( + ) + 22 + 2 =2 + 2( + ) .
1

0
2 = 2 2;
1

1 =
1

0
0
1

P0 , P1 .

0
2 2
;
=

2 + 2 ( + )
1
2
.
=
P1 =

2 + 2 ( + )

P0 =

0
2 = 2 .
1

P0 =

2
2
; P1 =
.
2
1 + (1 + )
1 + (1 + ) 2

= P 0 + P1 =

2 (1 + )
.
1 + (1 + ) 2

=0,2 K=0,98 .
9.2. ,
=102 1/ . =2 1/ . . .
.
.
.
:
0 - ;
1 - ;
2 - .
0
1 2.
.9.7. :

P0 (t ) = 2P0(t) + P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = 2P0(t) ( + )P1(t) + P2(t) ;

P2 (t ) = P1(t) P2(t) .

t Pi (t ) = 0

2P0 + P1=0 ;
2P0 (+)P1 + P2 = 0 ;

P1 P2 = 0 .

P0 + P1 + P2 = 1 ,

. ,

P0 =

2
2
; P1 =
;
2
2
+ 2 + 22
+ 2 + 2
22
P2 =
.
2 + 2 + 22

= P0 =

2
.
+ 2 + 22

= P1 + P 2 =

2 + 22
.
2 + 2 + 22

, :
K 102 ; K = 1 K 0,99 .
9.3. (1,2 3),
(1 2) , 3 (.9.8.). , 2
2 1 3
1 3 (..
1 = 3 >> 2) .
K K .
, = .
. , 2 , , :
0 - 1 3 ;
1 - (1 3) , - ;
2 - (1 3), , .
.9.9.
t P0(t) , P1(t) , P2(t) .
, lim P0 (t ) = P0 ,lim P1 ( t ) = P1 ,lim P2 (t ) = P2 .
.
t

, K = P0 + P1 , 0 1 (0 1 )
, K = P2 K = 1 K , P0 + P1 + P2 = 1 .
, .
(9.5) .9.9.

P 0 ( t ) = P 0 ( t ) + P1 ( t ) ,

P 1 ( t ) = P 0 ( t ) ( + ) P1 ( t ) + P 2 ( t ) ,

P 2 ( t ) = P1 ( t ) P 2 ( t ) .

(9.7), t
P0 + P1 = 0 ,
P0 ( + )P1 + P2 = 0 ,
P1 P2 = 0 ,
P0 + P1 + P2 = 1 .
1-, 2 4-

P0 =

(1 + ) + 1

; P1 =

;
(1 + ) + 1

P2 =
=

(1 + ) + 1

= / = 1 , , , P0 = P1 = P2 = 0,3333 , K = P0 + P1 = 0,6666 ,
K = P2 = 1 K = 0,3333
9.4. - . = 8103 1/ , = 0,8 1/ . .
. (9.8)
(9.9). .


1+
+

2
.
+ + 2

1

2


+ 2 + 1

2
.
+ 2 + 2

>> , :

2
2

; K .
.
2
2 2

,
. :
K. 104 ;
K. 0,5104 .
9.5. , , .
. = 8103 1/ ; = 0,2 1/ .
. (
) .
.
:
0 - ;
1 - ;
2 - ;
0 1 , 2 - . -

.9.10. , ,

P0 (t ) = 2P0(t) + P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = 2P0(t) ( +)P1(t) + 2P2(t) ;

P2 (t ) = P1(t) 2P2(t) .
P0(0)
= 1 ; P1(0) = P2(0) = 0 . , :
(s + 2)P0(s) P1(s) = 1 ;
2P0(s) + (s + + )P1(s) 2P2(s) = 0 ;
P1(s) + (s + 2)P2(s) = 0 .

Pi(s)

Pi ( s ) =

i
,

, P0(s) , P1(s) , P2(s) ;


i , i
.
, P2(t) .
2 :

(s + 2 )
=
2

(s + + )

0
2

(s + 2 )

(s + 2 )
=
2

(s + + )

1
0.

P2 ( s ) =

22

s s 2 + 3( + ) s + 4 + 2


s2 + 3( + )s + 2( + )2 = 0 .

s 1 , 2 = 0 ,5 3 ( + )

+ 22

9 ( + ) 2 8( + ) 2 =

=0,5[3( + ) ( + )] .
, s1 = 2( + ) ; s2 = ( + ) .
P2(s)

P2 ( s ) =

A
B
C
22
=
+
+
.
s ( s s1 ) ( s s 2 )
s
s s1
s s2

A , B , C .

A = l i m s P2 ( s ) =
s 0

22
;
s1 s 2

2 2 s2
B = l i m ( s s 1 ) P2 ( s ) =
;
s s1
s1 s 2 ( s1 s 2 )

2 2 s1
.
s1s 2 ( s1 s 2 )

C = lim ( s s2 ) P2 ( s) =
s s2

P2(t) = L1{P2(s)} ,

P2(t) = A1(t) + Be s1t + Ce s2 t =


s 2 e s1 t s 1 e s 2 t
2 2
=
1 +
.
s1 s2
s1 s2

2 2
2
=
; s1 s2 = -( + ) ,
s1s 2
( + )2

( t ) = P2 ( t ) =

2
( + )

[1 + e

2 ( + ) t

2e ( + )t .

, t

2
( + )2

,
K (3)= 2104 ; K = 1,5103 .
9.6. . = 2102
1/ ; = 2 1/ .
. mt .
.
:
0 - ;
1 - ;
2 - .
.9.11. mt
t .
, ,
:

P0 (t ) = P0(t) + P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = P0(t) ( + )P1(t) ;

P2 (t ) = P1(t) .
:
P0(0) = 1 ; P1(0) = P2(0) = 0 .


:
(s+)P0(s) P1(s) = 1 ;

P0(s) + (s + + )P1(s) = 0 ;

P1(s) + sP2(s) = 0 .
,

P2 ( s ) =

2
s ( s s1 )( s s 2 )

P2(s) , P2(t) (0 , t) 2

P2 ( t ) = 1

s1 e x p [s 2 t ] s 2 e x p [s1 t ]
s1 s 2

s 1 , 2 = 0 ,5 ( 2 + )

(2 + ) 2 4 2 .

, (0 , t)

s1 e x p [s 2 t ] s 2 e x p [s1 t ]
~
P ( t ) = 1 P2 ( t ) =
.
s1 s 2

mt

mt =

s + s2
1

~
P (t )dt = 1
=
2 +
.


s1 s 2

9.7.
. . tc .
. .
(0 , tc), , , 2
mt .
.
:
0 - ;
1 - ;
2 - .
.9.12. 0
1, - 2. , 2 tc
~
P (tc) = P0(tc) + P1(tc) = 1 P2(tc) .
~
P ( t c ) :

P0 (t ) = 2P0(t) + P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = 2P0(t) ( + )P1(t) ;

P2 (t ) = P1(t) .


P0(0) = 1 ; P1(0) = P2(0) = 0 :
(s + 2)P0(s) P1(s) = 1 ;
2P0(s) + (s + + )P1(s) = 0 ;
P1(s) + sP2(s) = 0 .
, , :

22
P2 ( s ) =
.
s ( s s1 )( s s 2 )
P2(s) , 2 (0 , tc ):

s1 e x p [ s 2 t c ] s 2 e x p [ s1 t c ]

P2 ( t c ) = 1

s1 s 2

s 1 , 2 = 0 ,5 3

( + 3 ) 2 8 2 .

,
(0 , tc) :

s1 e x p [s 2 t c ] s 2 e x p [s1 t c ]
~
P (tc ) =
.
s1 s 2

mt P(s) s = 0 :

P ( s ) = P 0 ( s ) + P1 ( s ) =

m t = P ( s)

s= 0

s + 3 +
;
+ (3 + ) s + 2 2

3 +
.
22

9.8. .
mt=200 ; m=2 . .
. .
. :
0 - ;
1 - ;
2 - .

. 0 1, 2.
t P0(t) , P1(t) ,
P2(t) . t P0 , P1 , P2 .
K = P2 , .. 2 .
(.9.13.)

P0 (t ) = 2P0(t) + P1(t) ;

P1 (t ) = ( + 2)P1(t) + 2P0(t) + P2(t) ;

P2 (t ) = 2P1(t) P2(t) .
P2
. , P0(t) + P1(t) + P2(t) =1 ,

2P0 + P1 = 0 ;
2P0 ( + 2)P1 + P2 = 0 ;
P0 + P1 + P2 = 1 .

P2 :

P2 =

2
,

2
= 2

( + 2 )

2
= 2

+ 2 + 42;

0
0 = 42.

( + 2 )

= P2 =

2
=

42
.
+ 2 + 42

>>

42

1
1
= 5 1 0 3 1/ ; =
= 0 ,5 1/ ,
mt
m

4 0 ,5 2

10 4 = 4 10 4 .
2
0 ,5

9.9. ,
, .
mt , =2103 1/ ; = 0,2 1/ .
9.10. . 25 q(ti) = 0,1 .
= 0,2 1/ . .
9.11. , . 1/ , 1/ . . .
9.12.
. : = 2103 1/ , = 0,2 1/ . .
9.13. - . = 8103 1/ , = 0,8 1/.
.
9.14. , , . = 6103 1/ , = 2 1/ .
. .
9.15. , = 3103 1/ . . , m = 0,5 . .
9.16. , = 3103 1/ .
. , m = 0,5 .
.
9.17.
. = 8103 1/ ; = 1 1/ , . .
9.18. . = 8103 1/ ; = 1 1/ ,
. .
9.19. , .
. = 102 1/, = 0,5 1/ ,
. .
9.20. ( = 9103 1/ ) ( = 103 1/ ). , = 0,3 1/ .

9.21. . ,
0,5 . , K 2104 .
9.22. . , 0,5 . , K 2104 .
9.23. , =
2
=210 1/ , , . = 2 1/ . ,
.

1. / . . . . . . : C , 1972 .

0
1
...
m
. 4.1

10

20

n0

11

21

n1

...........................................

1m

2m
. 4.2

nm

. 4.3
I

II

. 4.4
1

2
. 4.5

. 4.6

2
. 4.7

. 5.1

2
. 5.2

. 5.3
I
1
1

II
2

6
III

2
. 5.4

10

20

n0

11

21

n1

...............................
1m

2m

nm

1- 2-

n-
. 6.1

II

III
3

1
2
1

3
. 6.2

. 6.3
1

2
. 6.4

2
6.5

. 6.6
2

1
2

1
2
I

II
. 6.7

III

0
0
....................

0
....................

0
. 7.1

. 8.1
I
1

II
1

III

2
8.2

K+1

. 9.1

(j+1)

(k+1)K+1

. 9.2
(k+!)

(k+1-j)

(k+2-j)

K+1

. 9.3
(k+1)

(k+2-j)
j

(k+1-j)

(j+1) (k+1)

K+1

. 9.4
(k+1)

(k+1-j)

(k+2-j)

. 9.5

K+1

. 9.6

. 9.7

9.8

1
. 9.9

1
. 9.10

1
. 9.11

1
. 9.12

1
. 9.13

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