Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
AirTran
Alaska Air
America West
AMR (American)
ATA
Continental
Delta
Frontier
Midwest
Northwest
Ryanair
Southwest
United
WestJet
Price/
Share
(1)
6.6
29.1
3.5
22.3
15.0
26.2
29.3
17.0
14.6
15.7
32.1
18.5
13.5
15.9
Book
Equity/
Share
(2)
0.5
32.1
12.5
35.1
10.8
20.9
32.7
5.4
8.3
-5.1
5.5
5.3
59.6
2.8
EBIT/
Share
(5)
0.8
-1.7
-6.2
-16.2
-2.0
1.4
-11.8
3.0
-1.6
-4.4
0.9
1.1
-56.1
1.3
Earnings/
Share
(6)
0.3
-1.5
-4.4
-11.5
-2.6
-1.6
-9.9
2.0
-1.1
-5.0
0.7
0.7
-39.6
0.8
Trailing
AirTran
Alaska Air
America West
AMR (American)
ATA
Continental
Delta
Frontier
Midwest
Northwest
Ryanair
Market to
Total
book
Capital
EBITDA
multiple
multiple
multiple
[1/2]
[(1+3)/(2+3)] [(1+3)/4]
13.5
2.4
8.6
0.9
1.0
19.2
0.3
0.6
-3.2
0.6
0.9
-13.1
1.4
1.1
5.6
1.3
1.1
11.0
0.9
1.0
-71.6
3.2
3.2
5.3
1.8
1.6
-298.3
-3.1
1.3
51.6
5.8
4.0
26.4
EBIT
multiple PE Multiple
[(1+3)/5]
[1/6]
13.0
25.3
-37.0
-19.3
-2.2
-0.8
-5.7
-1.9
-23.8
-5.7
77.0
-16.7
-8.4
-3.0
5.7
8.4
-11.0
-13.5
-18.8
-3.1
38.5
44.0
Southwest
United
WestJet
3.5
0.2
5.6
2.9
0.8
4.4
13.4
-5.4
8.1
18.6
-3.6
12.7
27.6
-0.3
19.6
Data source: Actual numbers for 2001 are from company annual reports. Estimates for 2002 are from Valueline when available, otherwise
consensus analyst estimates are used. All stock prices are quoted as of December 31, 2001. Ryanair figures are based on the respective
American Deposit Receipt prices. Westjet figures are in Canadian dollars. 1 US dollar = 1.5870 Canadian dollars as of March 31, 2002. The
calculation procedure for the valuation multiples is defined in the lower panel based on the numbered variables defined in the upper panel.
Earnings/
Share
(8)
0.3
-0.8
-4.1
-3.9
-7.2
-1.2
-3.1
0.4
0.8
-2.5
0.9
0.7
-15.4
0.6
Leading
EBIT
PE
multiple Multiple
[(1+3)/7]
[1/8]
13.9
20.0
23.3
-38.8
-3.0
-0.8
7.4
-5.7
-7.5
-2.1
9.8
-22.4
11.8
-9.4
26.6
45.9
11.2
17.4
11.5
-6.3
30.3
34.1
14.3
NA
10.6
28.4
-0.9
26.9
Exhibit 8
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
Historical Annual Growth Rates for Low Fare Airlines
$ Revenue Growth
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: Compustat
AirTran
456%
186%
-4%
49%
18%
-20%
35%
-22%
ATA
Frontier
1%
21%
18%
2%
20%
21%
39%
23%
-58%
49%
125%
39%
56%
105%
79%
237%
Ryanair
20%
N/A
N/A
39%
68%
-20%
5%
28%
32%
51%
101%
42%
46%
32%
35%
45%
18%
35%
49%
10%
-5%
24%
14%
10%
14%
20%
21%
18%
13%
10%
16%
19%
19%
16%
12%
AirTran
2204%
175%
-40%
-4%
108%
15%
24%
7%
ATA
Frontier
11%
24%
23%
5%
4%
17%
22%
15%
-1%
186%
66%
26%
50%
50%
43%
-6%
25%
15%
29%
11%
21%
Southwest
177%
55%
61%
54%
35%
59%
66%
68%
57%
27%
23%
35%
20%
27%
13%
1%
11%
18%
17%
11%
28%
36%
13%
11%
19%
12%
9%
14%
19%
-2%
Exhibit 9
$ figures in millions
Actual
2001
21
Number of aircraft
$ Revenue/plane
Expected inflation
Operating margin
$15.258
$ Depreciation/plane
$ CapEx/New planes
Expected inflation
NWC Turnover
$0.496
$21.273
Financial Data
Revenue
Cash expenses
Depreciation
EBIT
Tax
NOPAT
Capital expenditure
Net working capital
Fixed assets
$17.638
$0.156
$0.133
$18.414
$0.044
$0.152
$19.224
$0.044
$0.152
$20.070
$0.044
$0.152
$20.953
$0.044
$0.152
$9.449
$0.521
$22.336
$0.050
$9.449
$0.547
$23.453
$0.050
$9.449
$0.574
$24.626
$0.050
$9.449
$0.603
$25.857
$0.050
$9.449
$0.633
$27.150
$0.050
$9.449
$320
$283
$10
$27
$9
$18
$600
$502
$18
$80
$27
$53
$884
$723
$26
$134
$46
$89
$1,192
$975
$36
$181
$62
$120
$1,485
$1,215
$45
$226
$77
$149
$1,802
$1,474
$54
$274
$93
$181
$234
$34
$530
$290
$63
$802
$328
$94
$1,104
$345
$126
$1,413
$310
$157
$1,679
$326
$191
$1,950
$0.084
34%
1
Estimate
2002
34
$30
9.499%
$30
$33
$31
$34
-$250
-$243
-$222
0.9155
0.8381
0.7673
-228
-203
-169
1,437
-210
-301
118
1,043
40.6
26 Price Band $25 to $27
-$148
0.7025
-103
-$124
0.6431
-79
6
Estimate
2007
98
7
Estimate
2008
108
8
Estimate
2009
113
9
Estimate Terminal
Value
2010
117
$21.875
$0.044
$0.152
$22.838
$0.044
$0.152
$23.843
$0.044
$0.152
$24.892
$0.044
$0.152
$0.665
$28.507
$0.050
$9.449
$0.698
$29.933
$0.050
$9.449
$0.733
$31.430
$0.050
$9.449
$0.770
$33.001
$0.050
$9.449
$2,144
$1,753
$65
$326
$111
$215
$2,466
$2,016
$75
$375
$127
$247
$2,694
$2,202
$83
$410
$139
$270
$2,912
$2,380
$90
$443
$151
$292
$342
$227
$2,227
$299
$261
$2,451
$157
$285
$2,526
$132
$308
$2,568
$36
$34
$24
$23
-$98
0.5888
-57
-$11
0.5390
-6
$172
0.4935
83
$227
0.4518
100
$4,747
0.4518
2098
Price / Earning
Airlines (positive earnings)
Airtran
Frontier
Ryanair
Southwest
Westjet
Average
Median
JetBlue Trailing
JetBlue Leading
Price/share
6.6
17
32.05
18.48
15.85
28.84
34.12
6.6
29.1
3.5
14.95
17
32.05
18.48
15.85
27.5
EBIT Multiple
Price/share
6.6
17
32.05
18.48
15.85
& WACC
1.02
7.41%
34%
4.89%
16,970
210,441
8.06%
1.22
5.00%
5.00%
11.10%
19.00%
13.00%
67.00%
9.499%
Leading
Earnings/ Share
25.29
0.33
8.37
0.37
44.02
0.94
27.59
0.65
19.57
0.59
24.968
0.58
25.29
0.59
25.29
1.2
Book Debt/Share
0.49
32.12
12.47
10.79
5.36
5.54
5.26
2.82
5.16
Trailing
Book Debt/Share
EBIT/ Share
3.96
0.01
3.33
1.79
0.97
0.81
2.99
0.92
1.09
1.32
1.426
1.09
1.426
EBIT Multiple
13.04
5.69
38.45
18.6
12.74
17.704
13.04
17.70
776.8* $20.69
Exhibit 5
0.3
1.22
multiple estimate
Cost of Capital
Kd
Kp
Ke
WACC
Weight
19%
13%
67%
1.000
Leading
PE Multiple
20
45.95
34.1
28.43
26.86
31.07
28.43
28.43
Leading
EBIT/ Share EBIT Multiple
0.76
0.64
1.17
1.42
1.59
1.12
1.17
13.89
26.58
30.26
14.27
10.58
19.12
14.27
1.2
19.12
K
4.89
8.06
11.1
Weight
0.6738159071
0.1921358356
0.1340482574
1
WACC
0.940
1.080
7.479
9.499
Weight %
Cost
67% Ke
19% Kd
13% Kp