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Given a Weibull (3.5, 6500) as the distribution for the HPT Nozzles of a fleet (fleet size 150),

create a tool that help you decide when do you want to do the next inspection base on the

risk you are willing to take (base on the inventory in the shop) and answer the following

questions:

1. How many nozzles do you expect to need to replace if you do an inspection at 4500

cycles?

2. You have 40 in your inventory and you want to be 95% confident that you have the

nozzles that you need to replace. What would be your recommendation if you want

to be 99% confidence you have the inventory that you need?

3. How would your decision be changed if your <3.5 for example 2?

4. What about >3.5 for example 5?

Please elaborate

INTRODUCTION

In life data analysis (also called "Weibull analysis"), the practitioner attempts to make

predictions about the life of all products in the population by fitting a statistical distribution

to life data from a representative sample of units. The parameterized distribution for the

data set can then be used to estimate important life characteristics of the product such as

reliability or probability of failure at a specific time, the mean life and the failure rate.

The term "life data" refers to measurements of product life. Product life can be measured in

hours, miles, cycles or any other metric that applies to the period of successful operation of a

particular product. Since time is a common measure of life, life data points are often called

"times-to-failure"

Lifetime Distributions (Life Data Models)

Statistical distributions have been formulated by statisticians, mathematicians and

engineers to mathematically model or represent certain behavior.

2|Page

The probability density function (pdf) is a mathematical function that describes the

distribution. The pdf can be represented mathematically or on a plot where the x-axis

represents time, as shown next.

Some distributions, such as the Weibull and lognormal, tend to better represent life data and

are commonly called "lifetime distributions" or "life distributions." In fact, life data analysis is

sometimes called "Weibull analysis" because the Weibull distribution, formulated by

Professor Waloddi Weibull, is a popular distribution for analyzing life data. The Weibull model

can be applied in a variety of forms (including 1-parameter, 2-parameter, 3-parameter or

mixed Weibull). Other commonly used life distributions include the exponential, lognormal

and normal distributions. The analyst chooses the life distribution that is most appropriate to

model each particular data set based on past experience and goodness-of-fit tests.

3|Page

The last & most important parameter of the weibull distribution is the Shape Parameter, .

This parameter also called the slope parameter because this value is equal to the slope of

your data when plotted on a weibull probability plot.

Below is an example of what happens to the weibull distribution with the Shape varies.

when < 1, the weibull distribution represents a system with a decreasing failure rate

like the early life failures on the bathtub curve.

distribution and the failure rate is constant.

when > 1, the weibull distribution represents a system with an increasing failure rate

like the end of life failures on the bathtub curve.

when = 3.5, this is another important beta value where the weibull distribution is

approximately equal to the normal distribution and the failure rate is increasing.

What Beta values tell us

Beta values are extremely important because they tell us the failure behavior of the

component. Knowledge of the failure behavior will lead us down a certain path when

trying to improve overall reliability and availability. This will aid in decisions as to whether

to apply preventive or predictive maintenance techniques to the equipment component.

A change in the scale parameter, , has the same effect on the distribution as a change of

the abscissa scale. Increasing the value of while holding constant has the effect of

stretching out the pdf. Since the area under a pdf curve is a constant value of one, the "peak"

of the pdf curve will also decrease with the increase of

4|Page

plugged in here

2

3

4

1. The tool is interactive enough to take Shape factor, Scale factor ,number of nozzles in

fleet,percentage confidence and cycle number from the user

2. The output section displays percentage failure of the components at corresponding cycle

number ,shape and scale factor of the weibull distribution

3. Failures in the lot(specified by user) are displayed here

4. Total failures with indicated Confidence interval is indicated here

5|Page

Task1: We are expected to find the total number of nozzles required to be replaced at

4500 cycles The Life of HPT nozzles are found by fitting a weibull data of SHAPE factor 3.5

and scale factor 6500 with 95% and 99% CI

We can observe from the sheet above that at 4500 cycles the failure rate of the nozzles in

fleet is 24.1254% (i.e 36 out of 150 nozzles are Failed) and with 95% confidence we can say

that the Total failures are 45 out of 150

45

6|Page

We can observe from the sheet above that at 4500 cycles the failure rate of the nozzles in

fleet is 24.1254% (i.e 36 out of 150 nozzles are Failed) and with 95% confidence we can say

that the Total failures are 49 out of 150

50

In the inventory we have 40 in stock and while inspecting at 4500 cycles we found that

failures are 45 with 95 % CI and 49 with 99% confidence so the inspection time /cycle at

which the inspection should happen is less than 4500 cycle

7|Page

To decide with optimum cycle time of inspection there comes many parameters into

limelight for example cost function. A cost function (CF) has to developed to identify the cost

per unit of time associated with different FFI (failure finding inspection) intervals, for the

proposed extended period of life. Moreover, a mathematical model has to be defined to

obtain the optimal FFI interval, during the extended period of the replacement life. Following

this methodology, the optimum FFI interval that generates the lowest cost per unit of time,

can be obtained

The following cost parameters are considered for cost modelling of FFI in the postponement

scenario

Direct cost of inspection task

Cost of possible repair due to a finding

Cost of an accident, due to multiple failures

Task 2: We are expected to find the total number of nozzles required to be replaced at

4500 cycles The Life of HPT nozzles are found by fitting a weibull data of SHAPE factor

2 and 5 with scale factor 6500 with 95% and 99% CI and state our observations and

recommendations

Before we proceed with Task 2 we need to validate the tool created

Done with help of Minitab

Done in excel by feeding basic equations of weibull distribution

8|Page

Given

parameters for

weibull

distribution =

3.5, =6500

Generating

Data for

Analysis using

Minitab with

given weibull

parameters

9833.305

9383.167

9291.802

9124.458

9112.325

9022.399

8994.941

8982.733

8634.911

8439.03

8428.263

8397.177

8307.408

8146.506

8129.065

7918.475

7841.313

7785.636

7785.401

7767.542

7720.399

7643.515

7456.225

7312.293

7244.027

6878.939

6826.684

6802.72

6780.891

6723.731

6723.08

6721.732

6657.563

6644.625

6626.675

6617.9

6596.207

6563.141

6560.831

6510.815

6486.209

6483.403

6480.049

6408.631

6388.088

6310.966

6294.009

6279.5

6277.577

6265.86

6074.172

5970.669

5963.616

5958.922

5946.198

5939.931

5833.803

5822.978

5788.534

5786.72

5784.67

5775.643

5768.662

5763.021

5715.195

5703.998

5588.151

5576.749

5543.308

5497.408

5408.377

5401.849

5346.023

5325.056

5319.236

**reliability function or survival function

4805.425

4747.139

4730.129

4728.441

4668.974

4621.238

4568.386

4536.978

4522.842

4466.214

4435.34

4405.153

4401.109

4355.005

4334.654

4266.081

4140.754

4132.864

4104.71

4082.011

4081.696

4049.025

3848.135

3819.657

3804.84

3388.692

3381.724

3357.32

3296.385

3282.428

3254.453

3201.586

3149.031

2982.042

2925.943

2865.366

2860.932

2819.871

2664.729

2565.902

2460.917

2164.833

1773.561

1507.623

1275.233

1076.443

3621.386

3619.341

3598.867

3410.4

6241.483

6239.925

6193.713

6192.278

6112.539

6101.168

6077.79

5237.979

5231.374

5199.642

5033.145

5000.277

4953.404

4950.304

3765.599

3703.961

3702.768

7122.491

7094.337

7043.888

6923.381

6910.946

6909.115

6879.079

9|Page

Survival is nearly 75% which shows failure is nearly 25 % (validating the

answer from the tool made)

10 | P a g e

P(t)

0.00025

function (pdf) is a

mathematical function that

describes the distribution.

*** EQUATIONS USED FROM

FORMULA TABLE IN PG 8

0.0002

0.00015

0.0001

0.00005

0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

F(t)

1.2

1

unreliability

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

R(t)

1.2

1

Weibull distribution returns

the reliability of the system

with Time/cycle

Reliability

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

cycles

0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Failure is nearly 24.2 % (validating the answer from the tool made)

11 | P a g e

Task 2: We are expected to find the total number of nozzles required to be replaced at

4500 cycles The Life of HPT nozzles are found by fitting a weibull data of SHAPE factor

2 and 5 with scale factor 6500 with 95% and 99% CI and state our observations and

recommendations

At 95% CI

At 99% CI

12 | P a g e

At 95% CI

At 99% CI

13 | P a g e

We observe that the percentage of failures increased with decreased failure rate or

Shape factor (This is something we should think about it !!!!). This trend is also observed

from the graphs below

14 | P a g e

The nozzles said to follow a weibull distributed life where shape factor physically signify

its proportionality with Failure rate, so we expect that the probability of failure increases

with shape factor but its not!!!

Its not till a particular cycle value which is equal to the scale factor of the distribution

At 6500 cycle we observe this from the tool created

At scale factor 6500 and shape factor 3.5 we observe at 6500 cycles total failures in 104

at 95%CI

Physically if the say failure rate proportional value is shape factor then if we change

failure rate to 1000, We expect that at 6500 cycles the failure rate should be 100% but

we observe

15 | P a g e

So this is the limitation of the tool and the distribution starts making physical sense after

the number of cycles are greater than scale factor of the distribution

The observations made above are abiding with the physics that failure rate proportional

value (shape factor) increases then number of failures increases

16 | P a g e

Conclusions:

At = 3.5, =6500 at 95 %CI we observe that out of 150, 45 nozzles failed and with

99%CI 49 nozzles failed, but our inventory has 40 and inventory size is fixed we

can go ahead doing inspection at some where less than 4150 cycles (where

99%CI total failures are 40)

Cost parameters are to be considered while coming uo with optimum number of

cycles

The tool made out of using weibull distribution Starts making Physical sense only

after the number of cycles are greater than the scale factor (see explanation in PG

14)

Refer Appendix A for more info on Hazard plot

17 | P a g e

APPENDIX A

Discussion on Hazard plot

The hazard function is the instantaneous rate of failure at a given time. Characteristics of a

hazard function are frequently associated with certain products and applications. Different

hazard functions are modeled with different distribution models. You can also model hazard

functions non-parametrically.

Increasing hazard function

Indicates that items are more likely to fail with time. For example, many mechanical items

that are prone to stress or fatigue have an increased risk of failure over the lifetime of the

product. Engineers might use a test to simulate wear-out stress. For example, engineers

could simulate extended usage of a light bulb over time and then record the time until a

failure occurs

18 | P a g e

Purpose: Create a stack-up Analyzer given a set of measured dimensions.

Minimum capability is to analyze normal, and uniform input distributions with a given Cp and

provide a probability of exceedance for different tolerance dimensions.

Three example problems are provided to be analyzed, also include a simulation to confirm.

A discussion about the capability, and limitations, of your tool is required.

INTRODUCTION

Typically, any exposition on tolerancing will include the two cornerstones, arithmetic and

statistical tolerancing. We will make no exception, since these two methods provide

conservative and optimistic benchmarks, respectively. Under arithmetic tolerancing it is

assumed that the detail part dimensions can have any value within the tolerance range and

the arithmetically stacked tolerances describe the range of all possible variations for the

assembly criterion of interest. In the basic statistical tolerancing scheme it is assumed that

detail part dimensions vary randomly according to a normal distribution, centered at the

midpoint of the tolerance range and with its 3 spread covering the tolerance interval. For

given part dimension tolerances this kind of statistical analysis typically leads to much

tighter assembly tolerances, or for given assembly tolerance it requires considerably less

stringent tolerances for detail part dimensions, resulting in significant savings in cost or even

making the difference between feasibility or infeasibility of a proposed design

The methods covered are: worst case or arithmetic tolerancing, simple statistical tolerancing

or the RSS method, RSS methods with inflation factors which account for nonnormal

distributions, tolerancing with mean shifts, where the latter are stacked arithmetically or

statistically in different ways, depending on how one views the tradeoff between part to part

variation and mean shifts.

19 | P a g e

Worst case

T1+T2+T3+T4+.

RMS

12 + 22 + 32 + 42

12 2 + 22 2 + 32 2 + 42 2 ****

12 2 (1 )2 + 22 2 (1 )2 + 32 2 (1 )2 + 42 2 (1

)2

**

For entering

For entering

POSITIVE NEGATIVE COMPONENT

COMPONENT

nominal

tolerance

NOMINAL NOMINAL TOLERANCE TOLERANCE

value

DESCRIPTION FROM / TO

CP

Bearing

Housing

Casing

Distribution

1 uniform

1 uniform

1 uniform

0.5125

0.9525

+/0.0025

0.0025

0.0025

0.5093

SQUARED

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

SQUARED with distr

TOLERANCE

SQUARED with distr*cp

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

Gasket

1.33 normal

0.1

0.005

0.000025

0.000025

2.7225E-06

Casing

1 normal

0.8725

0.0025

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

Housing

1 normal

0.5125

0.0025

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

Bearing

Gear

1.33 uniform

1.33 uniform

0.5093 0.0025

1.8975 0.0025

2.9161 0.0225

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00001849

0.00001849

2.01356E-06

2.01356E-06

0.01140

0.00864

+ tol

- tol

RSS

0.0564

0.0114

SUB TOTALS

EXAMPLE :1

2.95

NOMINAL ANSWER

SOLUTION

Worst case

0.0339

Tol

MIN

MAX

0.0225

0.0114

0.0564

0.008

0.026

0.0422

0.01140 0.02250044

0.04530

0.00864 0.02525595

0.04254

Tol statistical

0.008

0.026

0.02250044

0.02525595

0.0422

0.04530

0.04254

METHODS

EXAMPLE :1

Bearing

Gear

Housing

Casing

Gasket

Bearing

Housing

Casing

0.00864

0.026

0.0114

0.02525595

0.02250044

MIN

MAX

0.04254

0.04530

0.0422

0.0564

- tol

0.0114

+ tol

0.0564

0.026

0.0422

RSS

0.008

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.000025

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.00000625

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

SQUARED

0.01140

0.008

Tol statistical

0.0225

SOLUTION

Worst case

0.0339

NOMINAL ANSWER

0.0025

0.0025

0.0225

0.0025

0.5093

1.8975

2.9161

0.5125

1.33 uniform

1.33 uniform

1 normal

0.0025

0.8725

1 normal

0.005

+/0.0025

0.0025

0.0025

0.1

0.5125

0.9525

0.5093

NEGATIVE COMPONENT

NOMINAL TOLERANCE

1.33 normal

Distribution

1 uniform

1 uniform

1 uniform

2.95

Tol

CP

POSITIVE

NOMINAL

SUB TOTALS

DESCRIPTION FROM / TO

0.04530

0.02250044

0.01140

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00000625

0.00000625

0.000025

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

SQUARED with distr

0.04254

0.02525595

0.00864

2.01356E-06

2.01356E-06

0.00000625

0.00000625

2.7225E-06

0.00001849

0.00001849

0.00001849

TOLERANCE

SQUARED with distr*cp

20 | P a g e

PROVIDED

SOLUTION

Worst case

Tol statistical

Tol

MIN

MAX

0.0225

0.0114

0.0564

0.008

0.026

0.0422

0.01140 0.02250044

0.04530

0.00864 0.02525595

0.04254

0.0436

0.014

MIN

MAX

0.0804 0.1676

0.110 0.1382

0.0804

0.1676

0.014

0.110

0.1382

RSS

Tol statistical with Dist

0.02185 0.10215352 0.14585

Tol statistical with Dist and Cp

SOLUTION

Worst case

Tol statistical

0.124

NOMINAL ANSWER

MRSS

0.021

0.10141152

0.14659

0.02259

0.10215352

0.14585

0.02185

0

0

0.000

0.000

- tol

0.000128868

0.00004356

0.000

0.0066

1 uniform

Face Runout

0.0436

0.000128868

4.05005E-05

0.00001369

0.000

0.0037

1 uniform

blade looseness

+ tol

0.00007396

4.05005E-05

0.00007396

0.000025

0.000

0.005

1 uniform

Blade to tip

22.626

4.73344E-05

4.73344E-05

0.000016

0.000

0.004

11.41

1 uniform

Disk to CL

22.75

1.089E-07

0.000001

0.000001

SUB TOTALS

0.000106502

0.000106502

0.000036

0.000

Shaft

0.000

1 uniform

BH Radial

0.001

4.9997E-06

0.00000169

0.000

0.0013

1 uniform

BH looseness

0.006

0.000001

4.9997E-06

0.000001

0.000001

0.000

0.001

1 Normal

Bearing housing

11.216

0.00000025

0.00000025

0.00000025

0.000

0.0005

1 Normal

Frame looseness

1.33 Normal

0.000004

0.000004

0.000004

4.73344E-05

0.00001849

3.9204E-06

TOLERANCE

4.73344E-05

0.00001849

0.000036

0.000016

0.00000625

0.000036

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

0.000

0.000

0.000

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

0.004

0.0025

0.006

FACTORED

TOTAL

0.000

22.75

NOMINAL NOMINAL TOLERANCE

0.002

Distribution

1 uniform

1 uniform

1.33 Normal

1 Normal

Tol

Cp

Frame

Case

Runout

looseness

DESCRIPTION FROM / TO

21 | P a g e

(TOOL IN EXCEL)

22 | P a g e

Example 3:

The diameters of rotor shafts have a mean of 0.249in and a limit of +/-0.009. The inner

diameters of bearings have a mean of 0.255in and a limit of 0.006.

A - Given the two part stackup what is the clearance?

B - Given the attached data what is the actual clearance tolerance?

BEARING

0.255+/- 0.006 in

Maximum material limit

0.255-0.006 =0.249 in

Least material limit

0.255+0.006 =0.261 in

SHAFT

0.249+/- 0.009 in

Maximum material limit

0.249-0.009 =0.240 in

Least material limit

0.249+0.009 =0.258 in

23 | P a g e

Clearences

BEARING

MMC

SHAFT

LMC

MMC

0.009

0.003

LMC

0.009

0.021

Manufacturing shaft and bearing is Uniform

24 | P a g e

CASE B

From manufacturing point of view (Case B) we observe that shaft dimensions follow

normal distribution

From the data given in the excel sheet we observe that the Maximum diameter of shaft

reported is 0.279965(MMC) and minimum diameter reported is 0.240759(LMC)

From I Chart we observe LCL=0.24499 and UCL=0.27501, used to calculate Cp of the process

25 | P a g e

Cp=(UCL-LCL)/6

Now we try building a spread sheet similar to example 1 and example 2 for the present

process

26 | P a g e

DESCRIPTION FROM / TO

CP

FACTORED

COMPONENT

TOTAL

TOLERANCE

TOLERANCE

SQUARED

+/-

Distribution

1.33 uniform

1 normal

Bearing

shaft

SUB TOTALS

0.255

0.249

0.249

NOMINAL

ANSWER

SOLUTION

0.006

Tol

MIN

MAX

0.006

0.005002

0.255

0.011002

+ tol

- tol

0.017002 -0.005002

0.000

0.000

0.012

MRSS

0.000036

2.502E-05

0.008

COMPONENT

TOLERANCE

TOLERANCE

0.000106502

2.502E-05

0.01147

1.15981E-05

2.502E-05

0.00605

-0.00546832

0.01747

-0.00005129

0.01205

RSS

-0.002

0.0138

-0.005002 0.017

0.008

-0.002 0.0138

Tol statistical with Dist0.01147 -0.00546832 0.01747

Tol statistical with Dist0.00605

and Cp-0.00005129 0.01205

Worst case

0.011002

Tol statistical

POINTS OF DISCUSSION

What would happen if the dimensions were correlated? Demonstrate mathematically or

through simulation

If the dimensions are correlated

27 | P a g e

What is a more appropriate way to handle the one-sided distributions? For example, the

Flatness is distributed lognormal. A drawing limit indicates 99.73%

One-sided distribution or Non-normal distribution

Although the normal distribution takes center stage in statistics, many processes follow

a non normal distribution. This can be due to the data naturally following a specific type of

non-normal distribution (for example, bacteria growth naturally follows an exponential

distribution)

You have several options for handling your non normal data. Several tests, including the one

sample Z test, T test and ANOVA assume normality. You may still be able to run these tests if

your sample size is large enough (usually over 20 items). You can also choose to transform

the data with a function, forcing it to fit a normal model. However, if you have a very

small sample, a sample that is skewed or one that naturally fits another distribution type,

you may want to run a non parametric test. A non-parametric test is one that doesnt

assume the data fits a specific distribution type. Non parametric tests include the Wilcoxon

signed rank test, the Mann-Whitney U Test and the Kruskal-Wallis test

Imagine that you are watching a race and that you are located close to the finish line. When

the first and fastest runners complete the race, the differences in times between them will

probably be quite small.

Now wait until the last runners arrive and consider their finishing times. For these slowest

runners, the differences in completion times will be extremely large. This is due to the fact

that for longer racing times a small difference in speed will have a significant impact on

completion times, whereas for the fastest runners, small differences in speed will have a

small (but decisive) impact on arrival times.

This phenomenon is called heteroscedasticity (non-constant variance). In this example, the

amount of Variation depends on the average value (small variations for shorter completion

times, large variations for longer times).

28 | P a g e

This distribution of running times data will probably not follow the familiar bell-shaped curve

(a.k.a. the normal distribution). The resulting distribution will be asymmetrical with a longer

tail on the right side. This is because there's small variability on the left side with a short tail

for smaller running times, and larger variability for longer running times on the right side,

hence the longer tail.

Model bias and spurious interactions: If you are performing a regression or a design

of experiments (any statistical modelling), this asymmetrical behavior may lead to a

bias in the model. If a factor has a significant effect on the average speed, because

the variability is much larger for a larger average running time, many factors will

seem to have a stronger effect when the mean is larger. This is not due, however, to a

true factor effect but rather to an increased amount of variability that affects all

factor effect estimates when the mean gets larger. This will probably generate

spurious interactions due to a non-constant variation, resulting in a very complex

model with many (spurious and unrealistic) interactions.

29 | P a g e

If you are performing a standard capability analysis, this analysis is based on the

normality assumption. A substantial departure from normality will bias your

capability estimates.

One solution to this is to transform your data into normality using a Box-Cox transformation. Minitab

will select the best mathematical function for this data transformation. The objective is to obtain a

normal distribution of the transformed data (after transformation) and a constant variance.

Consider the asymmetrical function below :

30 | P a g e

DATA:

24 blades in a lot

sorted into sets.

Aero will want to know worst case blade per set, both high and low, and also average

twist per set of 16 blades.

Quality will want to understand defective rates and the expected number of defective

blades per lot of 24 blades. What is the probability that there will be more than 2 in a

lot?

What is the probability that a set of 16 will have at least one defective blade?

How can the sample measurement data help provide information about the process?

Given: Tracked sample measurement data

Task 1: Try to fit a distribution to the data

31 | P a g e

From the plots we can clearly observe that the data fits well into largest extreme value

method

ML Estimates of Distribution Parameters

Distribution

Largest Extreme Value

Location

60.76378

Scale

0.16592

32 | P a g e

While the distribution is plotted we find all the blades with are defective fall in the area

outside 6 (99.73%) of the total population

For a total of 349 values of 16 are defective (from the graph we can observe that the

value below 60.28 and value above 61.436 is defective)

33 | P a g e

Task2: Aero will want to know worst case blade per set, both high and low, and also

average twist per set of 16 blades. So generate set of 16 Randomly

Set_1

set_2

set3

set4

set5

set6

set7

set8

set9

set10

60.7700 61.3122 60.8567 60.7430 60.8294 60.5968 60.7596 60.6776 60.8127 60.8341

60.6892

60.8564

60.5891

60.7112

60.7839

61.2419

61.0130

60.8452

61.6027

60.8943

60.9248

61.0816

60.9016

60.7989

61.0001

60.818

0.108

60.5904 60.7029 60.6853

61.1894 60.8189 61.2212

60.6543 60.8933 60.6476

60.7548 61.6800 60.8232

61.7420 60.8497 61.0655

60.8849 60.9503 60.7626

60.5285 61.0535 60.8183

60.8492 60.5310 60.6643

60.8189 61.3409 60.5913

60.9592 60.8196 60.9265

60.8678 60.9155 60.6943

61.7200 61.0519 60.7942

60.5000 60.9042 61.5234

60.9500 60.9810 60.8105

60.7976 60.85324 60.75107

0.2686 0.20202 0.14306

60.7876 60.7079 60.8408

60.9423 61.3370 60.9466

60.7311 60.7096 60.9034

60.7860 60.7455 60.9094

60.8438 60.6814 61.0715

60.6734 60.6033 61.1203

60.6422 60.5721 60.9503

60.7955 60.8495 60.7258

60.6633 60.6757 60.6011

60.9052 60.8050 60.7575

60.6449 60.8222 60.9711

60.7191 60.6203 60.7167

60.6271 60.7391 60.5621

60.6633 60.9348 60.6964

60.7031 60.69052 60.76295

0.07416

0.1108 0.14563

60.6345 60.8915 60.7350

60.8173 61.0709 60.5387

60.8186 60.7227 60.8028

60.9951 60.7345 60.5494

60.6777 60.7993 60.9935

60.7901 60.8565 60.7307

60.8242 61.0137 60.6754

60.9969 60.9464 60.5600

60.7331 60.6597 60.5746

60.8798 60.8557 61.0180

60.7112 60.9267 60.4467

60.6679 60.6621 60.5648

60.9045 60.9981 60.7120

60.6704 60.6268 60.8108

60.738 60.78149 60.63585

0.0933 0.126613 0.014198

34 | P a g e

For set 1 :The value below 60.61 and above 61.53 are worst cases and standard

deviation is the average twist per set= 0.108 (similarly it can be repeated for all the sets)

Task 3: Quality will want to understand defective rates and the expected number of

defective blades per lot of 24 blades. What is the probability that there will be more

than 2 in a lot?

failure

35 | P a g e

P(x>2) =1-p(x=0)-P(x=1)-p(x=2)

=1-0.3445-0.388-0.19557

=0.0711

Task 4 : What is the probability that a set of 16 will have at least one defective

blade?

= 1-0.463398

=0.5367

Task 5 : How can the sample measurement data help provide information about the

process?

From a design perspective when an engineer comes up with tolerance Data ,it is

expected that the process is uniform ,But this can never be achieved as no machining

operation or tool can have very high repeatability, precision and accuracy.

There is always a chance where we can be close enough to the dimension_/+

tolerances mentioned, The word Close enough comes with addition of cost .

The sample measurement data is nothing but the representation of how repeatable,

accurate and precise the data is.

As per the requirement if the sample data shows very low deviation from the mean

value we can say that Variance of the production process is very low

If the sample data is in-between the control limits we can say that the process is well

under control

If we observe something like this in the process capability chart

36 | P a g e

Expect the circled part rest of the distribution is more or less under control, The

deviation in the circled part may be due to many reasons like

Change in operator, Change in tool, Change in machine tool, Change in machining

method and parameters (Tool feed, tool speed) or any failure might have lead to this

defect

37 | P a g e

This is what we have already discussed , there is a clear indication in the control chart

that 16 observations are out of spec limits mentioned ,We can observe from the three

zones in the chart. The discrepancies are somewhat periodic so they may be purely

due to wear of the tool or Shift of the operator

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