Opening Bell

December 21, 2016

Market Outlook
Indian markets are expected to open flat today taking cues from global
markets. Markets will be keenly watching global economic data in the
coming days.

Todays Highlights
US existing home sales MoM

Index Movement (past month)

30000

8600

28000

Key Developments
Aurobindo Pharmas Unit I API plant at Hyderabad has received a
Form 483 observation from USFDA. According to the company,
the observation is minor and would not have any material impact
on financials
As per media sources, Cyrus Mistry has filed a suit against Tata
Sons with the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). The
petition filed with the NCLT is against mismanagement of Tata
Sons under Section 241 of the Companies Act. The first hearing
on the petition is slated for December 22
As per media sources, Vedanta Resources (parent company of
Vedanta Ltd) has been directed by the London High Court to pay
US$100 million to Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines
Investments Holdings related to a 2013 copper price agreement
with Vedanta's Zambia based Konkola Copper Mines PLC
The SBI board has approved GoIs preferential issue of | 5681
crore and fixed the price at | 269.59/share. Post the capital
infusion, GoIs stake, currently at 60.18% will increase to 61.23%
Tata Steel's EGM for removal of Nusli Wadia as director of the
company is scheduled on December 21

Sensex
Nifty

Close Previous
26,308 26,375
8,104.4 8,139.5

20-Dec

16-Dec

14-Dec

2-Dec

BSE (RHS)

12-Dec

24000
8-Dec

7800
6-Dec

26000
30-Nov

8200
28-Nov

US markets ended in the green shrugging off geopolitical tensions in

a light trading day

32000

9000

24-Nov

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended in the negative territory on account of
weak bank stocks and on a sense of caution among investors with
respect to geopolitical tensions

NSE (LHS)

Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

-0.3
-1.3
0.7
18.2
-0.4
-1.7
1.7
18.5

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY14
99,525
-30,570

CY15
16,460
66,249

YTD CY16
9,153
27,833

Yesterday Last 5 Days

-686
-2,556
419
1,039

World Indices Monthly performance

Nikkei
19,560
8.5%
Kospi
2,047
3.4%

France
4,850
7.7%
Nasdaq
5,484
3.1%

Germany
11,465
7.5%
BSE
26,308
0.6%

Dow Jones
19,975
5.4%
NSE
8,082
0.1%

U.K.
7,044
4.0%
Shanghai
3,119
-2.8%

Nifty Heat Map

TCS
NTPC
Tech M.
Tata
Motors
RIL
Tata
power
Cipla
Vedanta
Ltd
Tata Steel
Bank of
Baroda

2,339.3
2.2%
161.9
1.2%
476.8
0.7%
473.2
0.3%
1,057.9
-0.4%
76.6
-0.8%
563.1
-1.1%
224.4
-1.3%
403.5
-1.7%
155.8
-2.3%

Ambuja
Cement
Coal India
Wipro
M&M
BHEL

205.4
2.1%
290.6
1.1%
466.7
0.7%
1,178.6
0.1%
120.9
-0.5%

Bharti
Airtel

302.6

United
Spirits

1,913.6

Axis Bank
Lupin
PNB

-1.0%
-1.1%
461.7
-1.3%
1,449.3
-1.7%
121.5
-2.3%

ACC
GAIL
HCL Tech
BPCL
Sun
Pharma
HDFC Ltd

1,295.2
1.4%
429.9
0.9%
830.2
0.7%
612.1
0.0%
627.9
-0.7%
1,235.6
-1.0%

Power
Grid

182.0

Asian
Paints

865.7

IDFC
SBI

-1.2%
-1.4%
52.6
-1.9%
254.6
-2.6%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

ITC
L&T
Grasim
Ind
Maruti
Dr Reddy
Cairn
India
Hindalco

230.0
1.3%
1,355.5
0.8%
828.9
0.6%
5,108.0
-0.1%
3,046.5
-0.7%
251.4
-1.0%
167.2
-1.2%

Hero
Moto

3,059.0

Bajaj
Auto

2,586.0

Yes Bank

-1.6%
-2.1%
1,147.1
-2.8%

Ultratech
Infosys

3,145.6
1.2%
1,012.2
0.7%

HDFC
Bank

1,181.9

Kotak
Bank

718.4

ONGC
HUL
Indusind
Bank
NMDC
ICICI
Bank
IDEA

0.4%
-0.2%
199.9
-0.8%
801.4
-1.0%
1,071.9
-1.2%
125.8
-1.6%
251.6
-2.1%
73.3
-4.1%

Markets Today
Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%)
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

YTD(%)

27,305
38,715
55.6
NA

27,410
39,102
55.4
NA

-0.4
-1.0
0.5
NA

-5.3
-4.9
10.2
-5.6

9.2
17.4
49.2
16.6

68.04
1.04
117.76

67.88
1.04
117.86

0.2
0.1
-0.1

0.5
-1.8
-2.8

-2.8
-4.3
2.1

60.4
7.5
34.6
14.9
45.1

60.0
7.5
34.6
14.9
45.5

0.7
-0.3
0.0
0.4
-0.7

-7.1
NA
1.4
7.1
-1.8

-2.6
NA
17.3
-11.2
-1.8

Key Data Points

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

KEY ECONOMICINDICATORS

5000
0

13-Dec

14-Dec

15-Dec
BSE Cash

2,470
15,385

10000

2,423
18,134

15000

3,140
18,134
16-Dec

19-Dec

20-Dec

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

400000.00

13-Dec

14-Dec

200000.00
0.00

15-Dec

346,779

600000.00

3,422

4.00%
6.50%
6.00%
4.20%
-0.3bln $
23.51bln $
363.82bln $
7.10%
7.30%
33.67bln $
0.70%
0.90%
-23.8bln $
10.16bln $
4.34%
6.18%
3.39%
2.67%

3,422

4.00%
6.25%
5.75%
3.63%
-3.4bln $
20.01bln $
365.75bln $
7.30%
7.60%
33.02bln $
-1.90%
-2.40%
-25.6bln $
13.01bln $
1.54%
7.07%
3.15%
3.20%

667,913

N/A
N/A
N/A
November
Q3
November
w/e
Q2
12M
November
October
October
Q3
November
November
November
November
November

2,582
17,109

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
CPI YY
Current Account Balance
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy

20000

240,878

Prior Values

2,383
16,151

Latest

207,344

Period

2,060
18,050

Key Economic Indicator

16-Dec

19-Dec

20-Dec

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Index

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Sector

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

19946.6

20115.35

-168.75

(0.84)

1893000

Banks

20663.13

20927.6

-264.47

(1.26)

5018000

BSE Small Cap

11792.74

11901.39

-108.65

(0.91)

66926000

Capital Goods

13644.86

13656.09

-11.23

(0.08)

2969000

Consumer Durables

10946.72

10912.66

34.06

0.31

526000

8304.6

8368.14

-63.54

(0.76)

1023000

FMCG
Healthcare

17870.57

18140.06

-269.49

(1.49)

1830000

IT

11396.98

11501.95

-104.97

(0.91)

1254000

Metals

10255.7

10346.17

-90.47

(0.87)

5834000

Mid Cap

10993.02

11070.76

-77.74

(0.70)

64406000

Oil & Gas

11932.4

12012.29

-79.89

(0.67)

1990000

Power

1982.45

1995.36

-12.91

(0.65)

5715000

PSU

7674.07

7743.87

-69.8

(0.90)

12364000

Real Estate

1271.78

1274.62

-2.84

(0.22)

8485000

9.3

IT
Real Estate
Consumer
Metals
Oil & Gas
Mid Cap
BSE Small
Auto
FMCG
Power
Healthcare
Capital Goods
PSU
Banks

2.7
2.0
1.7
1.5
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.4
-0.8
-1.6
-1.8
-3.7
-7.0

-2.0

3.0

8.0

(%)

Key News for Today

Company/
Industry
Oriental
Carbon &
Chemicals

NIIT Tech

News

View

The company has commissioned commercial

production from its first phase of brownfield
capacity expansion amounting to 5500 tonne
ahead of schedule on December 20, 2016. The
said project is the expansion of insoluble sulphur
production capacity at the special economic zone
(SEZ) at Mundra, Gujarat. The existing capacity at
the plant location is 11000 tonne and it is running
at ~90% capacity utilisation level

The commissioning of capacity ahead of

schedule bodes well for the company and
should result in incremental profitability in
FY17E. The early start of commercial
production also depicts robust product
demand and quality acceptance, which will
benefit the company in the long run

NIIT Tech has entered into a settlement

agreement with the government for the contract
that was put on hold due to certain project issues

NIIT Tech has provisioned ~ | 36 crore for

the same contract. Post the settlement for
the same contract, the company would be
receiving partial provision amount. That
would impact the bottomline positively

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Impact

TV Today

The company has decided to re-organise its radio

business and would not undertake the sale of the
radio business in the remaining three stations of
Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata to ENIL

Such a move will entail migration fees to the

tune of ~| 71.4 crore excluding other
charges/interest costs. In addition, the sale
of the business would have been EPS
accretive as the radio business is loss
making, unless the company is successful in
turning around the segment into profit

Key developments (Continued)

Jubilant Life announces a price increase of up to 15% for its Beta Picoline, 3-Cyanopyridine and Vitamin B3 (Niacin &
Niacinamide) with immediate effect
Godrej Consumer Products, through its subsidiary, has increased its stake in the Kenyan firm Charm Industries from
51% to 100%. The amount of the transaction remains undisclosed. The company had acquired the 51% stake earlier in
September 2011
As per media sources, Shoppers Stop is likely to raise | 150-200 crore for its subsidiary HyperCity, by selling a 10-15%
stake in HyperCity by March, 2017

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Bias negative as long as the index

keeps hitting a lower high-low..." The index
maintained the negative bias with another
lower high low, and shaved off a further 67
points or 0.2%. Except IT, most other sectors
ended flat to negative. PSU banks, pharma,
small & midcap indices lost over 1% while the
A/D ratio worsened further to 1:3.
The action formed another Bear candle with
shadows on both side. The index attempted to
recover initially, tanked, but recovered in
closing minutes again. However, the bias
remained negative due to a lower high-low.
After five consecutive lower closes, and closer
to the previous supports marked in Grey,
watch if the bias continues as negative even
today, or not.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
AXIS BANK
HDFC BANK
SBI
HDFC
MARUTI SUZUKI
TATA MOTORS
M&M
BAJAJ AUTO
TCS
INFOSYS
CIPLA
ONGC
RELIANCE
BHARTI AIRTEL
DLF

Close
26307.98
8082.40
1295.15
461.65
1181.90
254.55
1235.55
5108.00
473.15
1178.60
2585.95
2339.30
1012.15
563.10
199.85
1057.90
302.55
113.05

S1
26221.10
8055.40
1291.95
458.15
1180.70
250.90
1223.60
5070.85
472.80
1174.40
2553.55
2331.55
1011.50
558.80
197.75
1053.70
298.85
112.85

S2
26179.75
8044.25
1285.20
456.60
1177.40
249.90
1216.95
5048.00
471.30
1170.40
2546.90
2317.05
1007.05
555.55
196.95
1050.15
297.00
112.25

R1
26318.15
8086.10
1305.45
462.80
1187.35
255.70
1237.65
5108.60
475.75
1182.40
2596.95
2360.50
1020.35
564.70
199.75
1057.60
302.65
114.10

R2
26366.70
8101.40
1312.25
465.10
1190.30
258.15
1244.65
5127.45
479.00
1186.45
2618.65
2369.60
1023.85
567.65
200.70
1059.60
304.60
114.40

Trend
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
Neutral
-ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) December 2016

7700
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
100.0

22
27

74
46

51

33
41

10
15
60.0

40.0

47

20.0
Put

0.0

20.0

Call

*Due to technical reasons the above chart data is up to December 20, 2016

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

40.0

60.0

80.0

Short Term
Range bound
0
8000
8350
8171
8285

Advances / Declines
Advances
808
427

BSE
NSE

Declines
1810
1180

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy HCL Tech in the range of 832.00-834.00
2. Sell Voltas in the range of 308.50-309.50

*All recommendations are of December Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

61

17

80.0

8050-8010
8124-8155

Buy AMBCE DEC Fut at 207.60-208.00

View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
CMP: 205.1
Target 1: 209.3
Target 2: 212.5
Stop Loss: 206.1
0

5
5

31
37

Intraday
Range bound

Intraday Derivative Strategy

24

Nifty 50
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

Sell ARVLIM DEC Fut at 334.50-335.00

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
CMP: 341.1
Target 1: 332.8
Target 2: 328.8
Stop Loss: 336.8
See Daily Derivatives for more details

Unchanged
135
74

Results/Events Calendar

05

Monday

Markit US Services PMI

Nikkei Japan PMI Services
Caixin China PMI Services
0
0

12

26

20

Monday

27

Monday

14

December
Tuesday

03

Monday

21

December
Tuesday

December

Wednesday

US Existing Home Sales MoM

0
0
0
0

28

December
Tuesday

December

Wednesday

Japan Industrial Prod YoY

0
0
0
0

04

January
Tuesday

Japan PMI Mfg

Markit UK PMI Mfg
0
0
0

January
Wednesday

Caixin China PMI Services

0
0
0
0

Major Economic Events this Week

08

Thursday

SAIL
Japan GDP SA QoQ
China Trade Balance
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
0

15

29

23

Thursday

30

Thursday

Friday

06

January

December

17

December

24

December

31

December

07

January

Saturday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

India Fiscal Deficit

0
0
0
0

Thursday

10
0
0
0
0
0

December

UK GDP YoY
UK GDP QoQ
0
0
0

December

Japan PMI Services

Markit US PMI Services
0
0
0

Friday

EU CPI YoY
0
0
0
0

December

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Wholesale Inv MoM
0
0
0

05

16

Thursday

US GDP Annualized QoQ

0
0
0
0

December

NMDC
India Exports YoY
India Industrial Prod YoY
China CPI YoY
US Wholesale Inv MoM

December

J&K Bank, US CPI YoY

US FOMC Rate Decision
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI
US FOMC Rate Decision
Markit US Mfg PMI

22

09

December

January
Friday

US Trade Balance
US Unemployment Rate
0
0
0

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Bulk Deals

Date
Event
20-Dec BOJ Policy Rate
19-Dec Markit US Services PMI

Country Period
JN
20-Dec
US
Dec P

Date
22-Dec
23-Dec
23-Dec

Country
US
UK
UK

Event
GDP Annualized QoQ
GDP QoQ
GDP YoY

December

Wednesday

Jagran Prakashan
US Industrial Prod MoM
India Wholesale Prices YoY
Japan Industrial Prod YoY
0

US Consumer Confidence
China Industrial Profits YoY
0
0
0

January

December

Wednesday

RBI Repurchase Rate

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
PNC Infratech
GMR Infra

BOJ Policy Rate

0
0
0
0

December

Nikkei India PMI Mfg

Nikkei Inda PMI Services
Caixin China PMI Mfg
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI
0

Tuesday

Coal India
China Industrial Prod YoY
UK CPI YoY
0
0

December

Japan PPI Services YoY

0
0
0
0

02

13

Monday

Japan Trade Balance

Markit US Services PMI
0
0
0

07

December

US Trade Balance
Eurozone GDP SA YoY
0
0
0

December

Maharashtra Seamless
India CPI YoY
0
0
0

19

06

December

Period
3Q T
3Q F
3Q F

Actual Expected
-0.10%
-0.10% Company
53.40
55.20 BSE*
Datamatics
Expected
3.30%
0.50%
2.30%

Previous
3.20%
NSE*
0.50%
2.30% Bf Utilities Limited

Client Name

No. of
shares Price (|)

Insync Capital Partners Llp

Buy

295153

102.08

Ifci Ltd.

Sell

323823

418.42

0063

Recent Releases

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Type

Date
19 December 2016

Analyst Meet Update- Persistent

Report

19 December 2016

Result Update- J&K Bank

19 December 2016

Monthly Update- Health Check

16 December 2016

Management Meet Update- D-Link India

16 December 2016

Result Update- NMDC

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& iClick-2-Invest

Fortnightly
Monthly

When published

Quarterly

3 months

> 1 year

15 20%

> 20% &

above

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

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