African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

INTRODUCTION

PIPE REPLACEMENT PRIORITISATION

TSHWANE CASE STUDY

Alexander Sinske
July 2010

PROCESS OF ALGORITHM
DEVELOPMENT
Investigate causes of pipe failures and determine
attributes
Rearrange attributes in to factors for the calculation of a
compound risk
Discuss the importance of each factor
Determine if data for factors are available
Investigate the quality of data
Determine the weightings of factors through workshops
Investigate the effect of exposure on certain areas with
regards to specific factors

PRP DEFINITION

In an economy of budget restraints pipe failures cause

stress on municipal budgets.
A preventative strategy must be taken by replacing
pipes and networks that are predicted to fail.
It is important to spend the budget effectively,
concerning pipe replacements.
How do we determine which areas or pipes are the
most critical or contribute the greatest risk towards the
budget?
In addressing such a request GLS developed an
effective algorithm which prioritises pipe replacements
to optimise return on investment
This application has been applied to a case study for
the City of Tshwane

GENERAL PRINCIPLES
Pipe replacement prioritisation (PRP)
Probability of Failure (PoF)
Consequence (C)
PoF x C = RISK (in monetary terms)
Intervention
Replacement reduces risk

Optimize Return on Investment (ROI)

Why not possible?
Statistical information not readily available

PRP DEFINITION (2)

The pipe replacement potential for any one pipe

PRP = LF x CF {x FF x AF} (in the range of 0 to 1)
The Likelihood of Failure Factor (LF) consists of a
set of weighted factors
The Consequence of Failure Factor (CF) consists of
a set of weighted factors
Failure Frequency Factor (FF) consists of a set of
weighted factors (can alternatively form part of LF)
Assessed Condition Factor (AF) consists of a set of
weighted factors (can alternatively form part of LF)

Compound risk is assessed

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Session 4.2, Page 1

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

PRP EVALUATION

PRP WORKSHOP

Expected replacement cost for every pipe is calculated.

The table of pipes in the model can then be sorted in
order of decreasing PRP and a PRPpercentage is
determined
The pipes with high replacement potential can then be
visualized graphically and the associated total
replacement cost determined.
The PRP can then be aggregated in various ways to
provide a weighted average, maximum or minimum or
e.g. 90% percentile for various collections, such as per

During the PRP workshop 20-21 May 2010 the following

aspects were discussed and fine tuned:
The role of LF, CF, FF, AF and the according changes
The prioritisation of factors and weights
The effect of exposure on certain areas with specific
factors
The quality of data.

Political Region
Rollup Region (suburbs for network pipes & polygon buffer
system for bulk pipes)

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (2)

Typical Weighting Factors as adopted by Tshwane

Contributing Factors
Nominal Diameter (if insufficient alternative factors)
Reserve Pressure Ratio
Remaining Useful Life
Master Plan Item (Upgrade required)
Bulk Zone Leakage Volume
Minimum night flow volume
Pipe material used in Dolomite area
High corrosion potential for steel pipes
Undesired pipe material (e.g. AC)
High static-dynamic pressure range

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (3)

Likelihood of Failure
Property

Weight

Nominal diameter

Reserve water pressure ratio

Remaining useful life

10
20

Master Plan item

10

Minimum night flow *

Leakage volume

Material and geology

Corrosion potential

Undesired material

10

High static-dynamic range

* Data not available for Tshwane

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (4)

Typical Weighting Factors

Reserve Pressure Ratio =

Likelihood of Failure
0%
Nominal diameter

3%
15%

Property

Criteria
(<=)

Rating
(0..5)

Remaining useful life

Reserve Pressure Ratio

Master Plan item

Reserve Pressure Ratio

0.25

Minimum night flow

Reserve Pressure Ratio

0.5

Leakage volume

Reserve Pressure Ratio

0.75

Reserve Pressure Ratio

Reserve Pressure Ratio

>1

Reserve water pressure ratio

16%

3%
8%
31%

Material and Geology

8%
Corrosion Potential
Material

0%
16%

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Static Dynamic

Session 4.2, Page 2

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (5)

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (6)

Remaining Useful Life

Required Upgrade (Master Plan)

= Life_Expenctancy_based_on_Material (Current Year AM_Year)

Property

Criteria

Rating

(Year)

(0..5)

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

10

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

20

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

50

Remaining Useful Life (yr)

>50

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (7)

(undefined)

Rating
(0..5)
0

MP Item Type

MP

Material and geology

Property

Criteria

Rating

(l/s/km)

(0..5)

Leakage Volume

10

Leakage Volume

30

Leakage Volume

>30

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (9)

Criteria

Material

Property

Criteria

Rating (0..5)

Material and Geology

Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology
Material and Geology

ACAC-Dolomite
DIDI-Dolomite
FCFC-Dolomite
GRPGRP-Dolomite
HDPEHDPE-Dolomite
STST-Dolomite
mPVCmPVC-Dolomite
uPVCuPVC-Dolomite

0
0
5
0
2
0
5
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
3.5
0
3

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (10)

Undesired pipe materials

Final Factor

Rating (0..5)

2.5

Material

AC

Material

DI

Material

FC

Material

GRP

Material

HDPE

Material

mPVC

Material

ST

Material

uPVC

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Criteria

MP Item Type

LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE (8)

Leakage volume

Protperty

Property

Session 4.2, Page 3

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (2)

Typical Weighting Factors as adopted by Tshwane

Contributing Factors
Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to
water pressure
Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to flow
Likelihood of extended non-supply over time based in
system type
Likelihood of high repair cost based on pipe cost
function
Flooding due to steep slopes across roads
Strategic location (e.g. CBD, HOS, IND)
Poor geology (e.g. Dolomite, Clay)
Lack of network redundancy

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (3)

Consequence of Failure

Weight

Property
High cost to consumer due to high water pressure

10

High cost to consumer due to flow

20

Extended non-supply over time

High repair cost

Flooding due to geography

Strategic location

Geology

10

Network redundancy

10

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (4)

Typical Weighting Factors

Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to

pressure

Consequence of Failure

16%

High cost to consumer due to

high water pressure
High cost to consumer due to
flow
Extended non-supply over time

16%

Property

Criteria

Rating

(<=)

(0..5)

Consumer Loss Head (m)

30

Consumer Loss Head (m)

60

Consumer Loss Head (m)

90

Consumer Loss Head (m)

160

Consumer Loss Head (m)

250

Consumer Loss Head (m)

>250

High repair cost

16%
Flooding due to geography
Strategic location

32%

Geology
8%
Network redundancy

2%
8%

2%

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (5)

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (6)

Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to flow

Property

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

Criteria

Rating

(<=)

(0..5)

Likelihood of high repair cost (due to location)

Property

Criteria

Rating
(0..5)

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

20

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

50

Repair Cost

Public open space

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

100

Repair Cost

Road

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

200

Repair Cost

Reserve

Consumer Loss Flow (l/s)

>200

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Session 4.2, Page 4

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (7)

Likelihood of strategic location

Property

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (8)

Geology

Criteria

Rating
(0..5)
Property

Strategic Location

(undefined)

Strategic Location

CBD

Strategic Location

Hospital

Strategic Location

Industrial

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (9)

Redundancy

Criteria

Rating

(<=)

(0..5)

Redundancy (l/s)

Redundancy (l/s)

20

Redundancy (l/s)

50

Redundancy (l/s)

100

Redundancy (l/s)

200

Redundancy (l/s)

>200

FAILURE FREQUENCY

Geology

(undefined)

Geology

Dolomite

Geology

Clay

CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (10)

(number of failures per year per pipe length)

FAILURE FREQUENCY (2)

Failure frequency

Property

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Rating
(0..5)

Final Factor

Property

Failure frequency

Criteria

Criteria

Rating

(Breaks/a/km)

(0..5)

Failure Frequency

Failure Frequency

Failure Frequency

Failure Frequency

Failure Frequency

>10

Session 4.2, Page 5

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

ASSESSED CONDITION
Assessed Pipe Condition

City of Tshwane Case Study

FINAL PRP EVALUATION

Pipe
Replacement
Potential

(if available)

Failure Frequency
Factor

Likelihood of Failure Factor

FINAL PRP EVALUATION (2)

Assessed Condition
Factor

Consequence of Failure Factor

ROLL-UP OF PRP RESULTS

Final Factor (shown as PRP% per modelled pipe)

To facilitate interpretation of PRP results, roll-up of
results to areas is supported to for both Bulk and
Network pipes by
Political Region
Roll-up area
Roll-up areas typically consists of
Bulk systems for Bulk Pipes
Suburbs for Network Pipes

The pipe length weighted average PRP is calculated for

each area as well as
What percentage (based on replacement cost) of the top
10 percentile of overall PRP are located in each area.

ROLL-UP OF PRP RESULTS (2)

CONCLUSION

Final Factor (shown per rollup suburb)

Upgrades and replacements can now be planned
together and implemented in an efficient and cost
effective manner.
Not only can a list of infrastructure requirements (with
costs) be generated to accommodate the future
scenario but the costs of pipe replacement programmes
can be assessed as well.
A ROI analysis highlights those pipes to replaced with
highest priority given a fixed budget
Workshops with client is essential
Result reporting in GIS based system is essential

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Session 4.2, Page 6

African Water Leakage Summit , 2011

City of Tshwane Case Study

FUTURE WORK
To provide an aligned technical approach with Asset
Management Principles
To provide an absolute measure of need of
replacement, not just ranking
Result can be used to compare different models with
each other
From existing PRP results, Failure Modes will be
analysed independently of each other and then the
earliest failure used to determine the shortest
Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
The independent Criticality Grade [0..5] for a pipe is
determined from the existing PRP data.
Risk exposure is defined as the product of Criticality
Grade and RUL (of the determining failure mode)

GLS, Alexander Sinske,

Thank you!

alex@gls.co.za

Session 4.2, Page 7