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SPECIAL
DATA
FEATURE
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Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
However, the number of intermediate conflicts (i.e. conflicts with a cumulative number
of battle-related deaths exceeding 1,000) was
up two. Altogether, the overall picture of
global armed conflict remained very stable in
2001, although the emotional and political
repercussions of 11 September will remain
important.
A complete list of all armed conflicts that
were active in 2001 is found in Appendix 1.
A list of unclear cases in 2001 is found in
Appendix 2.
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j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
also be useful for descriptive purposes. Compilations of the number of conflicts are frequently given wide media attention, as are
descriptions frequently misleading of
data from individual conflicts.4
The aim of this article is to present a
dataset based on the Uppsala criteria
covering the entire post-World War II
period. For the period 19892001, our
dataset is the same (but for minor adjustments) as that reported in articles in Journal
of Peace Research in previous years. For the
earlier years, we went through three stages.5
First, we generated a candidate database,
drawing on information found in a dozen
datasets from various research projects.6
These sources are listed in Gleditsch et al.
(2001: 5). This procedure generated a list of
4,219 candidate events, several of which
overlapped.
Next, we examined critically the long list
of candidate conflicts to see which of them
fulfill the Uppsala criteria. This was primarily
done by checking all potential cases against a
selection of available sources, notably
Keesings Contemporary Archives and reference
literature on various countries and regions.
Particular focus was given to disentangling
complex situations such as India and Burma,
where conflicts have been lumped together in
most datasets including earlier versions of
our own.
The third step was to identify conflicts,
4 A good discussion of conflicting estimates of casualties in
the 1991 Gulf War is found in Mueller (1995).
5 The COW project initially followed a similar procedure.
In compiling the original list of international wars, the first
step of Small & Singer (1972: 1819) was to list in chronological order all the deadly quarrels that had been identified
as wars by Wright (1942/1965) and Richardson (1960),
and others and subsequently weed out the ones that failed
to meet their own criteria.
6 In Gleditsch et al. (2001: Appendix 2), we discuss another
eight datasets that for various reasons were not included in
the candidate set. Several of them were used as sources of
reference when we identified additional conflicts not
included in the candidate list. Including them in the candidate list would have made little if any difference to the final
list.
07gleditsch (ds)
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Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
619
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j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
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Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
621
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j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Figure 2. Probability that a Country Is Involved in Armed Conflict, All Levels, All Types, 19462001;
Annual Figures and Long-Term Trend Line
0.4
Annual figures
Third polynomial
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
2000
1998
1994
1996
1992
1988
1990
1984
1980
1982
1976
1978
1974
1972
1968
1970
1964
1960
1962
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
0
1946
622
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Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
Conflicts by Type
In Figure 3, we present the armed conflicts
by different types of international involvement, following the distinctions made in the
COW project.11 We confirm the common
observation that internal conflict has been
the dominant form of conflict throughout
most of the post-World War II period, and
certainly since the late 1950s. There is a
hump of civil conflict in the late 1960s,
probably related to the decolonization
process. A limited proportion of the internal
conflicts are internationalized, although this
phenomenon is rarely recorded before the
mid-1950s. Extrastate conflicts were com10
623
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j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
In this figure, a conflict is coded by type for each year. Thus, a conflict can move from one type to another over time.
For instance, the Kosovo conflict is coded as internal in 1998 and internationalized internal in 1999. In the aggregate
figures for conflict for the entire period, such conflicts are coded at the highest (i.e. most internationalized) level.
07gleditsch (ds)
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Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
Future Improvements
We appear to have a useful dataset for the
post-1945 period with clear definitions, with
considerable face validity and a reasonable fit
to (and explainable differences from) other
datasets for this period. There are several
ways to improve our data. We discuss them
here in an order mostly designed to go from
the fairly easy to the very difficult.
First, we have collected start dates for all
the conflicts and hope to add end dates later.
This is important for analyses using a hazard
model, such as Raknerud & Hegre (1997)
and Hegre et al. (2001). For studies of the
democratic peace, for instance, the results
can be quite misleading if the outbreaks of
conflicts and the regime changes are not
dated precisely (McLaughlin et al., 1998).
Studies of the duration of conflicts can be
nearly meaningless in the absence of precise
dating: A two-week conflict around New
Year becomes a two-year conflict. Precise
dates are available for the war data in the
COW project, as well as some other datasets.
We include tentative start dates in the database associated with this article. Establishing
end dates is more difficult because internal
conflicts often peter out rather than end with
an agreement. Also, even if there is an agreement, occasional violence may continue for
some time.
Second, we are interested in focusing on
conflict resolution as well as the initiation
and escalation of conflict, and therefore wish
to add to the database information on how
the conflicts ended, whether by victory, by
peace agreement, or in other ways (see Wallensteen & Sollenberg, 1997: 342344).
Third, we would like to find better ways
of distinguishing between central and
peripheral participants in a conflict. The
COW criteria of requiring a certain number
of casualties (or a certain level of military
commitment) would probably work reasonably well for interstate conflicts and for
625
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07gleditsch (ds)
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it may become a flexible and versatile instrument, widely used in the study of war and
peace.
References
Buhaug, Halvard & Scott Gates, 2002. The
Geography of Civil War, Journal of Peace
Research 39(4): 417433.
de Soysa, Indra & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2002.
The Liberal Globalist Case, in Bjrn Hettne
& Bertil Odn, eds, Global Governance in the
21st Century: Alternative Perspectives on World
Ordwe. EGDI Study 2002: 2. Stockholm:
Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2673).
Gleditsch, Kristian S. & Michael D. Ward, 1999.
A Revised List of Independent States since the
Congress of Vienna, International Interactions
25(4): 393413.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 1999. Do Open Windows
Encourage Conflict?, Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift 102(3): 333349.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Peter Wallensteen, Mikael
Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg & Hvard
Strand, 2001. Armed Conflict 19462000: A
New Dataset, paper presented to the conference on Identifying Wars: Systematic Conflict Research and Its Utility in Conflict
Resolution and Prevention, Uppsala University, 89 June (www.pcr.uu.se).
Gurr, Ted Robert, 2000. Ethnic Warfare on the
Wane, Foreign Affairs 79(3): 5264.
Gurr, Ted Robert; Monty G. Marshall & Deepa
Khosla, 2000. Peace and Conflict 2000: A
Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy. College
Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of
Maryland (text and tables available in electronic form at www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm
/peace.htm).
Hegre, Hvard; Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates &
Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2001. Towards a
Democratic Civil Peace?, American Political
Science Review 95(1): 3348 (data available at
www.prio.no/cwp/datasets.asp).
Huntington, Samuel P., 1996. The Clash of
Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.
New York: Simon & Schuster.
627
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j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Conflict Management and Peace Science 18(1):
123144.
Sarkees, Meredith Reid & J. David Singer, 2001.
The Correlates of War Warsets: The Totality
of War, paper presented to the 42nd Annual
Convention of the International Studies
Association, Chicago, IL, 2024 February.
Singer, J. David & Melvin Small, 1972. The Wages
of War 18161965: A Statistical Handbook.
New York: Wiley.
Singer, J. David & Melvin Small, 1994. Correlates
of War Project: International and Civil War
Data, 18161992. ICPSR 9905, Ann Arbor,
MI (data from ICPSR or at www.umich.
edu/~cowproj).
Small, Melvin & J. David Singer, 1982. Resort
to Arms: International and Civil Wars,
18161980. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Smith, Dan, 1997. The State of War and Peace
Atlas, 3rd edn. London: Penguin.
Sollenberg, Margareta, et al., 2000. Major
Armed Conflicts, 1999, App. 1 in Armaments,
07gleditsch (ds)
Macedonia
Government
2001
Minor
Russia
1994
199596
2001
Minor
War
War
Iran
Government
197980
198182
198688
199193
200001
Minor
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate
Israel
194954
195564
19652001
Minor
Intermediate1
Intermediate
198486
198791
199297
19982001
Minor
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
19782001
War
Europe
Middle East
Mujahideen e Khalq
Asia
Afghanistan3
Government
Turkey
Page 629
Intensity level
1:30 pm
Year
2/8/02
Opposition organization
Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
Incompatibility
629
Burma/
Myanmar6
Territory (Shan)
196063
196470
Minor
War
197688
1994
1995
199799
2001
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate
India8
194849
195091
1992
199395
19972001
War
Intermediate7
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
Government
196772
198994
19962001
Minor
Minor
Minor
Territory (Tripura)
Minor
Minor
Minor
6 Due to the complex situation that has existed in Burma since independence, it is hard to find any reliable casualty figures that can be related to specific groups. Thus, the data on
Burma 194888 are estimates. From 1989 onwards, the data are more exact.
7 Possibly war in 1991.
8 Due to the complex situation that has existed in India since independence, it is hard to find reliable casualty figures that can be related to specific groups. Thus, the data on India
194888 are estimates. From 1989 onwards, the data are more exact.
9 The CPI-M (Communist Party of India Marxist) split in 1969 into CPI-ML (Communist Party of India Marxist-Leninist) and MCC (Maoist Communist Centre). The CPI-ML
has since then split into numerous factions, one of the most important being Peoples War Group (PWG).
Territory (Karen)
Page 630
Intensity level
1:30 pm
Year
2/8/02
Opposition organization
j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Incompatibility
07gleditsch (ds)
630
Location
Incompatibility
Territory (Assam)
198990
1991
Minor
War
19922001
Intermediate
194748
1964
1965
1971
1984
1987
198990
1992
199698
1999
200001
War
Intermediate
War
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
1989
1990
1991
19992001
Minor
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
Territory (Kashmir)
Indonesia
Territory (Aceh)
10
ABSU (All Bodo Students Union), BPAC (Bodo Peoples Action Committee),
ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam)
BDSF (Bodo Security Force), ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam),
ULFA faction, BLTF (Bodo Liberation Tigers Force), NDFB (National
Democratic Front for Bodoland)
A large number of groups have been active. Sixty groups were reported active in 1990, 140 in 1991, and 180 in 1992. Some of the larger groups have been JKLF (Jammu and
Kashmir Liberation Front), the Hizb-e-Mujahideen and, in recent years, also the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba, and Jesh-e-Mohammadi.
Page 631
Minor
War
Intermediate
War
1:30 pm
1989
199093
199498
19992001
2/8/02
Intensity level
Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
Year
India
Pakistan
Opposition organization
07gleditsch (ds)
Location
631
Government
19972000
2001
Minor
Intermediate11
Philippines
Government
197280
1981
198286
198788
198992
199394
19992001
Minor
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
197071
197277
1978
197980
1981
198288
199499
2000
2001
Minor
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
198384
198588
198993
1994
19952001
Minor
Intermediate13
War
Intermediate
War
11
Territory (Eelam)
Page 632
Nepal
1:30 pm
Intensity level
2/8/02
Year
Opposition organization
j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Incompatibility
07gleditsch (ds)
632
Location
Year
Intensity level
Algeria
Government
1992
19932001
Minor
War
Angola14
Government15
197594
1995
19982001
War
Intermediate17
War
Burundi
Government
Ubumw, Palipehutu (Parti pour la libration du peuple Hutu: Party for the
Liberation of the Hutu People), CNDD (Conseil national pour la dfense de
la dmocratie: National Council for the Defense of Democracy), Frolina
(Front pour la libration nationale: National Liberation Front), CNDD-FDD
(Conseil national pour la dfense de la dmocratie-Forces pour la dfense de
la dmocratie: National Council for the Defense of DemocracyForces for
the Defense of Democracy)
199092
199596
1997
1998
1999
200001
Minor
Minor18
Intermediate19
War
Intermediate20
War
Central
African
Republic21
Government
Military faction
2001
Minor
Africa
2/8/02
Supported by troops from Cuba until 1989. Supported by troops from Namibia in 200001.
From 1990, only activity involving the government of Angola and UNITA.
MPLA faction only active in 1977.
Possibly war in 1995.
Possibly intermediate in 199596.
Possibly war in 1997.
Possibly war in 1999.
Supported by troops from Libya.
Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Page 633
Opposition organization
1:30 pm
Incompatibility
07gleditsch (ds)
Location
633
Government
19972001
Minor22
Democratic
Republic of
Congo23
Government
War
Intermediate24
Ethiopia
Territory (Ogaden)
1996
19982001
Minor
Minor
19992001
Minor
Guinea
Government
200001
Minor25
Liberia
Government
200001
Minor26
Rwanda
Government
Opposition alliance27
1998
19992000
2001
War
Intermediate
War
22
23
24
25
26
27
Page 634
Chad
1:30 pm
Intensity level
2/8/02
Year
Opposition organization
j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Incompatibility
07gleditsch (ds)
634
Location
07gleditsch (ds)
Senegal
Territory
(Casamance)
1990
199293
1995
19972001
Minor
Minor
Minor
Intermediate
Sudan
Territory (Southern
Sudan)28
198392
199394
19952001
War
Intermediate30
War
Uganda
Government
LRA (Lords Resistance Army), WNBF (West Nile Bank Front), ADF
(Alliance of Democratic Forces)
199495
19962001
Minor
Intermediate
Colombia
Government
196579
198088
198990
1991
199293
199497
19982001
Minor32
Intermediate33
War
Intermediate
War
Intermediate
War
USA34
Government
2001
War
Americas
28 By 1997 the incompatibility had widened to concern governmental power in addition to the territorial dispute.
29 NDA includes SPLM as its largest member organization.
30 Possibly war in 199394.
31 Only FARC and ELN active in 199299.
32 It is unclear when the conflict changed from minor to intermediate.
33 Possibly war in several of the years.
34 Supported by the Multinational Coalition, comprising troops from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
Page 635
Intensity level
1:30 pm
Year
2/8/02
Opposition organization
Incompatibility
Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
Location
635
07gleditsch (ds)
636
2/8/02
1:30 pm
Page 636
j ou r n a l o f P E A C E R E S E A RC H
Location/government
Incompatibility
Opposition organization
Angola
Territory (Cabinda)
China
Ethiopia
Ethiopia
India
Territory (Manipur)
India
Territory (Nagaland)
Indonesia
Iraq
Government/Territory
Government
Myanmar
Peru
Tajikistan
Territory (Kaya)
Government
Government/Territory
07gleditsch (ds)
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Page 637
Ni ls Pe tte r Gl edits ch et a l .
MARGARETA SOLLENBERG, b. 1968,
Fil.kand. in Peace and Conflict Research
(Uppsala University, 1994); Research
Assistant, Uppsala Conflict Data project and
PhD candidate in Peace and Conflict
Research, Uppsala University. Co-author of
the annual armed conflict updates in JPR since
1995.
637