EPL Form Guide

Week 19

Matches in this Report.

30 Dec 2016 - Hull vs Everton
31 Dec 2016 - Burnley vs Sunderland
31 Dec 2016 - Southampton vs West Brom
31 Dec 2016 - Chelsea vs Stoke
31 Dec 2016 - Swansea vs Bournemouth
31 Dec 2016 - Leicester vs West Ham
31 Dec 2016 - Man United vs Middlesbrough
31 Dec 2016 - Liverpool vs Man City
01 Jan 2017 - Watford vs Tottenham
01 Jan 2017 - Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

www.valuesportsbetting.com

Summary
Hull vs Everton

Burnley vs
Sunderland

Southampton
vs West Brom

Chelsea vs
Stoke

Swansea vs
Bournemouth

Leicester vs
West Ham

Man United vs
Middlesbrough

Liverpool vs
Man City

Watford vs
Tottenham

Arsenal vs
Crystal Palace

(4.50)
HOME

(3.60)
DRAW

(2.05)
AWAY

(2.16)
>2.5

(1.84)
<2.5

(1.95)
HOME

-5%

4%

2%

-20%

16%

50%

(2.50)
HOME

(3.30)
DRAW

(3.40)
AWAY

(2.39)
>2.5

(1.73)
<2.5

(2.08)
HOME

19%

-21%

-3%

14%

-9%

54%

(1.81)
HOME

(3.75)
DRAW

(5.50)
AWAY

(2.42)
>2.5

(1.67)
<2.5

(2.54)
HOME

-6%

11%

2%

8%

-7%

35%

(1.31)
HOME

(6.50)
DRAW

(14.50)
AWAY

(1.70)
>2.5

(2.37)
<2.5

(1.88)
HOME

-28%

57%

200%

-24%

31%

41%

(2.96)
HOME

(3.51)
DRAW

(2.67)
AWAY

(1.81)
>2.5

(2.21)
<2.5

(1.78)
HOME

39%

3%

-37%

6%

-9%

72%

(2.12)
HOME

(3.75)
DRAW

(3.85)
AWAY

(1.93)
>2.5

(2.09)
<2.5

(1.83)
HOME

16%

2%

-30%

-6%

8%

63%

(1.29)
HOME

(6.50)
DRAW

(17.50)
AWAY

(1.97)
>2.5

(2.02)
<2.5

(1.85)
HOME

-9%

53%

3%

4%

-5%

53%

(2.44)
HOME

(3.70)
DRAW

(3.18)
AWAY

(1.68)
>2.5

(2.43)
<2.5

(2.08)
HOME

30%

4%

-40%

21%

-32%

62%

(6.00)
HOME

(4.00)
DRAW

(1.74)
AWAY

(2.05)
>2.5

(1.93)
<2.5

(1.75)
HOME

56%

19%

-23%

6%

-7%

71%

(1.36)
HOME

(6.00)
DRAW

(11.00)
AWAY

(1.56)
>2.5

(2.57)
<2.5

(1.98)
HOME

8%

-59%

52%

-9%

6%

52%

(2.00)
AWAY
0.50

50%

(1.90)
AWAY
-0.25

46%

(1.64)
AWAY
-1.00

65%

(2.12)
AWAY
-1.50

59%

(2.24)
AWAY
0.25

28%

(2.19)
AWAY
-0.25

37%

(2.15)
AWAY
-1.50

47%

(1.91)
AWAY
-0.25

38%

(2.33)
AWAY
1.00

29%

(1.99)
AWAY
-1.50

48%

30 Dec 2016 at KCom Stadium

Hull

vs

19th

League Position

7th

4th

Grade

2nd

Match Odds - Hull 4.50 (22%)

Everton

Draw 3.60 (28%) Everton 2.05 (49%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Hull 0.50 paying 1.95, Everton -0.50 paying 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals 2.16 (46%) Under 2.5 Goals 1.84 (54%)

On the overall record Hull look value here. Everton are evens, despite losing 4 of their last 6 away, indeed they have
only won 5 of their last 19 away games.

Hull Home Form

Head to Head
Result

Everton Away Form

26/12/16 v Man City(1st) 0-3

Season

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Leicester(1st) 0-2

10/12/16 v Crystal Palace(3rd) 3-3

2015/16

26/11/16 v West Brom(3rd) 1-1

2014/15

Home

No

27/11/16 v Southampton(2nd) 1-0

06/11/16 v Southampton(2nd) 2-1

2013/14

Away

No

05/11/16 v Chelsea(3rd) 5-0

22/10/16 v Stoke(2nd) 0-2

2012/13

22/10/16 v Burnley(3rd) 2-1

01/10/16 v Chelsea(2nd) 0-2

2011/12

15/10/16 v Man City(1st) 1-1

10/12/16 v Watford(3rd) 3-2

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Hull's home record W6 D4 L9

Everton's away record is W5 D5 L9

Combined the overall record is H15 D9 A14

78%

H
32%

A
47%

D
21%

Hull (Home)

A
26%
D
26%

H
48%

A
37%

H
39%

D
24%

Everton (Away)

A
49%

-15%

Combined Result

H
22%
D
28%

-24%

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Hull's home record > 2.5 = 9, < 2.5 = 10

Everton's home record > 2.5 = 11, < 2.5 = 8

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 20 <2.5 = 18

14%

<2.5
53%

>2.5
47%

<2.5
42%

>2.5
58%

<2.5
47%

>2.5
53%

>2.5

<2.5
54%

<2.5

>2.5
46%

-13%

Hull (Home)

Everton (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Hull vs Everton - Similar Opposition Analysis

Hull have played 13 games against 2nd grade opposition at home. Everton have played 25 games against 4th grade
opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 38 games.

The home team won in 8 of 38 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Hull a 21% chance, based on these stats.
A draw featured in 11 games (29% chance), the away side won 19 games (50% chance)
4%

A
54%

H
31%
D
15%

Hull (Home)

A
48%

H
16%

A
50%

D
36%

H
21%

H
22%

A
49%

D
29%

D
28%

-5%

Combined Odds

Everton (Away)

2%

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
14 of the 38 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 37% chance. the other 24
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 63% chance
16%

>2.5
23%

<2.5
56%

<2.5
77%

>2.5
44%

<2.5
63%

>2.5
37%

>2.5

>2.5
46%

<2.5
54%

<2.5
-20%

Hull (Home)

Combined Odds

Everton (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Hull with a 0.50 goal start.

The home team have won 19 points (50%) in similar games, the away team 19 points (50%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Score Margin
Back Everton
Back Hull

Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes

<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
L
L
L
L W W
W W W W L
L

Similar Opposition AH Results

19

2
W
L

3
W
L

19

>3
W
L
HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the betting markets have the handicap right.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score

1st Half Result

3 most frequent
Scores
N
58%

Y
42%

0-2
0-1

16%
13%

A
37%

H
16%
D
47%

2nd Half Result

A
45%

H
21%
D
34%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.38

0-0
13%
Equivalent Odds.
0-2 = 6.33

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 6.33

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 4.75

BTTS No = 1.73

0-1 = 7.60

Draw - 2.11

Draw - 2.92

31 Dec 2016 at Turf Moor

Burnley

vs

5th

League Position

16th

3rd

Grade

3rd

Match Odds - Burnley 2.50 (40%)

Sunderland

Draw 3.30 (30%) Sunderland 3.40 (29%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Burnley -0.25 paying 2.08, Sunderland +0.25 paying 1.90
Over 2.5 Goals 2.39 (42%) Under 2.5 Goals 1.73 (58%)

There is some value in the home team here given they have won 4 from their last 6 games. In addition Burnley like this
sort of opposition (Sunderland are a 3rd grade away side). In the 21 similar games, the home team has won 10, giving
them a 48% chance of winning, the betting markets have them as a 40% chance.

Burnley Home Form

Head to Head
Result

Sunderland Away Form

26/12/16 v Middlesbrough(4th) 1-0

Season

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Man United(1st) 3-1

10/12/16 v Bournemouth(2nd) 3-2

2015/16

26/11/16 v Man City(1st) 1-2

2014/15

05/11/16 v Crystal Palace(3rd) 3-2

2013/14

05/11/16 v Bournemouth(3rd) 1-2

22/10/16 v Everton(2nd) 2-1

2012/13

22/10/16 v West Ham(2nd) 1-0

02/10/16 v Arsenal(1st) 0-1

2011/12

15/10/16 v Stoke(3rd) 2-0

10/12/16 v Swansea(3rd) 3-0

Draw

No

26/11/16 v Liverpool(2nd) 2-0

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Burnley's home record W8 D4 L7

Sunderland's away record is W3 D6 L10

Combined the overall record is H18 D10 A10

18%

A
37%

H
42%

D
21%

A
16%
D
31%

H
53%

A
26%
D
26%

A
29%

H
48%

A
-13%

Burnley (Home)

Sunderland (Away)

Combined Result

-11%

Value

H
40%

D
30%

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Burnley's home record > 2.5 = 7, < 2.5 = 12

Sunderland's home record > 2.5 = 10, < 2.5 = 9

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 17 <2.5 = 21

7%

<2.5
63%

>2.5
37%

<2.5
47%

>2.5
53%

<2.5
55%

>2.5
45%

>2.5

<2.5
58%

<2.5

>2.5
42%

-4%

Burnley (Home)

Sunderland (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Burnley vs Sunderland - Similar Opposition Analysis

Burnley have played 7 games against 3rd grade opposition at home. Sunderland have played 14 games against 3rd
grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 21 games.

The home team won in 10 of 21 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Burnley a 48% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 5 games (24% chance), the away side won 6 games (29% chance)

A
29%

H
28%

A
29%
D
14%

D
43%

Burnley (Home)

A
28%

H
57%

D
24%

19%

H
48%

D
-3%

Value

H
40%

D
30%

-21%

Combined Odds

Sunderland (Away)

A
29%

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
10 of the 21 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 48% chance. the other 11
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 52% chance
14%

<2.5
57%

>2.5
43%

<2.5
50%

>2.5
50%

<2.5
52%

>2.5

>2.5
48%

<2.5
58%

<2.5

>2.5
42%

-9%

Burnley (Home)

Combined Odds

Sunderland (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Burnley with a -0.25 goal start.

The home team have won 10 points (54%) in similar games, the away team 8.5 points (46%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back Sunderland
L
L
L
L 0.5L W
Back Burnley
W W W W 0.5W L

Similar Opposition AH Results

2
W
L

3
W
L

10

>3
W
L

HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Burnley.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score
3 most frequent
Scores

N
48%

Y
52%

1-1

14%

Any Other 14%

1st Half Result

A
14%
D
38%

H
48%

2nd Half Result

A
43%

H
33%
D
24%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 1.91

2-0
14%
Equivalent Odds.
1-1 = 7.00

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.10

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 3.00

BTTS No = 2.10

Any Other = 7.00

Draw - 2.63

Draw - 4.20

2-0 = 7.00

Away Win - 7.00

Away Win - 2.33

31 Dec 2016 at St Marys

Southampton

vs

11th

League Position

8th

1st

Grade

3rd

Match Odds - Southampton 1.81 (55%)

West Brom

Draw 3.75 (27%) West Brom 5.50 (18%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Southampton -1.00 paying 2.54, West Brom +1.00 paying 1.64
Over 2.5 Goals 2.42 (41%) Under 2.5 Goals 1.67 (60%)

The bet here has to be West Brom on the Asian Handicap. They rarely win away but they don't get thrashed either.
Testamnet to this would be their recent form, none of these games resulted in a loss by more than 1, including tough
away games to Arsenal and Chelsea. West Brom with a goal headstart gives you the away win, draw and money back on
a defeat by 1 goal.

Southampton Home Form

Head to Head

28/12/16 v Tottenham(1st) 1-4

Season

Result

11/12/16 v Middlesbrough(4th) 1-0

2015/16

Home

27/11/16 v Everton(2nd) 1-0

2014/15

Draw

19/11/16 v Liverpool(1st) 0-0

2013/14

Home

30/10/16 v Chelsea(1st) 0-2

2012/13

Away

16/10/16 v Burnley(4th) 3-1

2011/12

West Brom Away Form

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Arsenal(1st) 1-0

Yes

11/12/16 v Chelsea(2nd) 1-0

No

26/11/16 v Hull(4th) 1-1

No

06/11/16 v Leicester(1st) 1-2

Yes

22/10/16 v Liverpool(2nd) 2-1

01/10/16 v Sunderland(4th) 1-1

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Southampton's home record W12 D4 L3

West Brom's away record is W3 D8 L8

Combined the overall record is H20 D12 A6

18%

A
16%

A
16%

D
21%

H
63%

D
42%

H
42%

A
16%
D
31%

A
18%

H
53%

D
27%

-5%

H
55%

-13%

Southampton (Home)

West Brom (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Southampton's home record > 2.5 = 9, < 2.5 = 10

West Brom's home record > 2.5 = 6, < 2.5 = 13

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 15 <2.5 = 23

1%

<2.5
53%

>2.5
47%

<2.5
68%

>2.5
32%

<2.5
61%

>2.5
39%

>2.5

<2.5
59%

<2.5

>2.5
41%

-4%

Southampton (Home)

West Brom (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Southampton vs West Brom - Similar Opposition Analysis

Southampton have played 10 games against 3rd grade opposition at home. West Brom have played 17 games against
1st grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 27 games.

The home team won in 14 of 27 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Southampton a 52% chance, based on
these stats. A draw featured in 8 games (30% chance), the away side won 5 games (19% chance)
A
20%

H
40%

D
40%

D
23%

11%

A
18%

A
18%
H
59%

D
30%

H
52%

2%

H
55%

D
27%

A
-6%

Southampton (Home)

Combined Odds

West Brom (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
12 of the 27 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 44% chance. the other 15
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 56% chance
8%

>2.5
20%

<2.5
80%

<2.5
41%

<2.5
56%

>2.5
59%

>2.5
44%

>2.5

>2.5
41%

<2.5
59%

<2.5
-7%

Southampton (Home)

Combined Odds

West Brom (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Southampton with a -1.00 goal start.

The home team have won 7 points (35%) in similar games, the away team 13 points (65%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a half
win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back West Brom
L
L
L
L
L
P
Back Southampton
W W W W W P

Similar Opposition AH Results

2
W
L

3
W
L

>3
W
L

0
HOME

13

HOME 1/2

0
PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on West Brom.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score

1st Half Result

3 most frequent
Scores
N
52%

Y
48%

1-0

19%

0-0

11%

A
7%
D
48%

H
45%

2nd Half Result

A
33%

H
34%
D
33%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.08

1-1
11%
Equivalent Odds.
1-0 = 5.40

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.25

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 3.00

BTTS No = 1.93

0-0 = 9.00

Draw - 2.08

Draw - 3.00

1-1 = 9.00

Away Win - 13.50

Away Win - 3.00

31 Dec 2016 at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea

vs

1st

League Position

11th

2nd

Grade

3rd

Match Odds - Chelsea 1.31 (76%)

Stoke

Draw 6.50 (15%) Stoke 14.50 (7%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Chelsea -1.50 paying 1.88, Stoke +1.50 paying 2.12
Over 2.5 Goals 1.7 (59%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.37 (42%)

Chelsea have to slip up some time don't they ? The odds suggest another straightforward home win but there is no
value backing Chelsea here. The value must therefore be on Stoke and a 1.5 goal headstart looks reasonable with a 59%
win rate.

Chelsea Home Form

Head to Head

26/12/16 v Bournemouth(2nd) 3-0

Season

Result

11/12/16 v West Brom(3rd) 1-0

2015/16

Draw

26/11/16 v Tottenham(1st) 2-1

2014/15

Home

05/11/16 v Everton(2nd) 5-0

2013/14

Home

23/10/16 v Man United(2nd) 4-0

2012/13

15/10/16 v Leicester(1st) 3-0

2011/12

Stoke Away Form

Score

<> 2.5

27/12/16 v Liverpool(1st) 4-1

No

10/12/16 v Arsenal(1st) 3-1

Yes

27/11/16 v Watford(3rd) 0-1

Yes

05/11/16 v West Ham(2nd) 1-1

Home

No

22/10/16 v Hull(4th) 0-2

Home

No

02/10/16 v Man United(1st) 1-1

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Chelsea's home record W9 D8 L2

Stoke's away record is W5 D4 L10

Combined the overall record is H19 D12 A7

A
11%
D
42%

H
47%

167%

A
26%
D
21%

H
53%

A
18%

D
32%

H
50%

A 7%
D
15%

105%

H
76%

A
-35%

Chelsea (Home)

Stoke (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Chelsea's home record > 2.5 = 15, < 2.5 = 4

Stoke's home record > 2.5 = 12, < 2.5 = 7

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 27 <2.5 = 11

21%

<2.5
21%

<2.5
37%
>2.5
79%

>2.5
63%

<2.5
29%

<2.5
42%

>2.5

>2.5
71%

<2.5

>2.5
58%

-31%

Chelsea (Home)

Stoke (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Chelsea vs Stoke - Similar Opposition Analysis

Chelsea have played 10 games against 3rd grade opposition at home. Stoke have played 19 games against 2nd grade
opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 29 games.

The home team won in 16 of 29 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Chelsea a 55% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 7 games (24% chance), the away side won 6 games (21% chance)

D
20%

A
10%
H
70%

A 7%
D
15%

200%

A
26%
D
26%

A
21%

H
48%

D
24%

H
57%

H
55%

H
76%

A
-28%

Chelsea (Home)

Combined Odds

Stoke (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
13 of the 29 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 45% chance. the other 16
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 55% chance
31%

<2.5
60%

>2.5
40%

<2.5
53%

>2.5
47%

<2.5
55%

>2.5
45%

<2.5
42%

>2.5

<2.5

>2.5
58%

-24%

Chelsea (Home)

Combined Odds

Stoke (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Chelsea with a -1.50 goal start.

The home team have won 12 points (41%) in similar games, the away team 17 points (59%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Score Margin
Back Stoke
Back Chelsea

Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes

<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
L
L
L
L
L
L
W W W W W W

Similar Opposition AH Results

2
W
L

3
W
L

>3
W
L

17

12

HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Stoke.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score
3 most frequent
Scores

N
59%

Y
41%

2-0
0-1

17%
14%

1st Half Result

A
14%
D
31%

H
55%

2nd Half Result

A
21%
D
31%

H
48%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.42

3-0
14%
Equivalent Odds.
2-0 = 5.80

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 1.81

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.07

BTTS No = 1.71

0-1 = 7.25

Draw - 3.22

Draw - 3.22

3-0 = 7.25

Away Win - 7.25

Away Win - 4.83

31 Dec 2016 at Liberty Stadium

Swansea

vs

18th

League Position

15th

3rd

Grade

3rd

Match Odds - Swansea 2.96 (34%)

Bournemouth

Draw 3.51 (28%) Bournemouth 2.67 (37%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Swansea 0.25 paying 1.78, Bournemouth -0.25 paying 2.24
Over 2.5 Goals 1.81 (55%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.21 (45%)

Not sure that Swansea are as bad as the betting markets make out. They have won 2 from their last 6 games and have a
better home record than Bournemouth's away record (on a rollling season basis), so to make them underdogs at home
and with no manager makes them very backable.

Swansea Home Form

Head to Head

Bournemouth Away Form

26/12/16 v West Ham(3rd) 1-4

Season

Result

Score

10/12/16 v Sunderland(3rd) 3-0

2015/16

Draw

26/11/16 v Crystal Palace(3rd) 5-4

2014/15

27/11/16 v Arsenal(1st) 3-1

06/11/16 v Man United(2nd) 1-3

2013/14

19/11/16 v Stoke(2nd) 0-1

22/10/16 v Watford(2nd) 0-0

2012/13

29/10/16 v Middlesbrough(4th) 2-0

01/10/16 v Liverpool(1st) 1-2

2011/12

01/10/16 v Watford(4th) 2-2

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Chelsea(2nd) 3-0

Yes

10/12/16 v Burnley(3rd) 3-2

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Swansea's home record W8 D4 L7

Bournemouth's away record is W4 D5 L10

Combined the overall record is H18 D9 A11

A
37%

H
42%
D
21%

Swansea (Home)

A
21%
D
26%

40%

H
53%

Bournemouth (Away)

A
29%
D
24%

H
47%

A
-17%

Combined Result

H
34%

A
37%

D
28%

-23%

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Swansea's home record > 2.5 = 9, < 2.5 = 10

Bournemouth's home record > 2.5 = 11, < 2.5 = 8

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 20 <2.5 = 18

>2.5
47%
<2.5
53%

5%

<2.5
42%

>2.5
58%

<2.5
47%

>2.5
53%

<2.5
45%

>2.5
<2.5

>2.5
55%

-5%

Swansea (Home)

Bournemouth (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Swansea vs Bournemouth - Similar Opposition Analysis

Swansea have played 14 games against 3rd grade opposition at home. Bournemouth have played 3 games against 3rd
grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 17 games.

The home team won in 8 of 17 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Swansea a 47% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 5 games (29% chance), the away side won 4 games (24% chance)
39%

A
21%
D
29%

H
50%

A
33%

H
34%

A
24%
D
29%

D
33%

Swansea (Home)

H
47%

D
28%

-37%

Combined Odds

Bournemouth (Away)

H
34%

A
37%

3%

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
10 of the 17 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 59% chance. the other 7
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 41% chance

<2.5
50%

>2.5
50%

6%

<2.5
0%

<2.5
41%

>2.5
100
%

<2.5
45%

>2.5

>2.5
59%

<2.5

>2.5
55%

-9%

Swansea (Home)

Combined Odds

Bournemouth (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Swansea with a 0.25 goal start.

The home team have won 10.5 points (72%) in similar games, the away team 4 points (28%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back Bournemouth
L
L
L
L 0.5W W
Back Swansea
W W W W 0.5L L

Similar Opposition AH Results

2
W
L

3
W
L

>3
W
L

HOME

HOME 1/2

4
0

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Swansea.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score

1st Half Result

3 most frequent
Scores
N
65%

Y
35%

A
H 12%
23%

Any Other 18%

0-0

18%

D
65%

2nd Half Result

A
24%

H
41%

D
35%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.83

3-0
18%
Equivalent Odds.
Any Other = 5.67

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 4.25

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.43

BTTS No = 1.55

0-0 = 5.67

Draw - 1.55

Draw - 2.83

3-0 = 5.67

Away Win - 8.50

Away Win - 4.25

31 Dec 2016 at King Power Stadium

Leicester

vs

10th

League Position

13th

1st

Grade

2nd

Match Odds - Leicester 2.12 (47%)

West Ham

Draw 3.75 (27%) West Ham 3.85 (26%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Leicester -0.25 paying 1.83, West Ham +0.25 paying 2.19
Over 2.5 Goals 1.93 (52%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.09 (48%)

This game looks difficult to assess. There are no real value indicators here (a slight bias towards Leicester). Given the
unpredicatable nature of both teams this is probably best left alone.

Leicester Home Form

Head to Head

West Ham Away Form

26/12/16 v Everton(2nd) 0-2

Season

Result

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Swansea(3rd) 1-4

10/12/16 v Man City(1st) 4-2

2015/16

Draw

Yes

11/12/16 v Liverpool(1st) 2-2

26/11/16 v Middlesbrough(4th) 2-2

2014/15

Home

Yes

27/11/16 v Man United(2nd) 1-1

06/11/16 v West Brom(3rd) 1-2

2013/14

19/11/16 v Tottenham(1st) 3-2

22/10/16 v Crystal Palace(3rd) 3-1

2012/13

30/10/16 v Everton(3rd) 2-0

02/10/16 v Southampton(2nd) 0-0

2011/12

15/10/16 v Crystal Palace(4th) 0-1

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Leicester's home record W11 D6 L2

West Ham's away record is W5 D6 L8

Combined the overall record is H19 D12 A7

A
10%

A
26%

D
32%
H
58%

Leicester (Home)

H
42%

D
32%

A
18%

D
32%

18%

H
50%

A
26%

6%

D
27%

H
47%

-29%

West Ham (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Leicester's home record > 2.5 = 11, < 2.5 = 8

West Ham's home record > 2.5 = 14, < 2.5 = 5

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 25 <2.5 = 13

27%

<2.5
42%

>2.5
58%

<2.5
26%

<2.5
34%
>2.5
74%

<2.5
48%

>2.5

>2.5
66%

<2.5

>2.5
52%

-29%

Leicester (Home)

West Ham (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Leicester vs West Ham - Similar Opposition Analysis

Leicester have played 13 games against 2nd grade opposition at home. West Ham have played 20 games against 1st
grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 33 games.

The home team won in 18 of 33 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Leicester a 55% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 9 games (27% chance), the away side won 6 games (18% chance)
16%

A
23%
D
31%

A
15%
H
46%

D
25%

A
18%

H
60%

D
27%

2%

A
26%

H
55%

H
47%

D
27%

A
-30%

Leicester (Home)

Combined Odds

West Ham (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
16 of the 33 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 48% chance. the other 17
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 52% chance
8%

>2.5
31%

<2.5
40%

<2.5
69%

<2.5
52%

>2.5
60%

>2.5

>2.5
48%

<2.5
48%

<2.5

>2.5
52%

-6%

Leicester (Home)

Combined Odds

West Ham (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Leicester with a -0.25 goal start.

The home team have won 18 points (63%) in similar games, the away team 10.5 points (37%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Score Margin
Back West Ham
Back Leicester

Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes

<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
L
L
L
L 0.5L W
W W W W 0.5W L

18

2
W
L

3
W
L

Similar Opposition AH Results

>3
W
L

9
6

HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Leicester.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score
3 most frequent
Scores

N
61%

Y
39%

2-0

21%

2-2

15%

1st Half Result

A
15%
D
36%

H
49%

2nd Half Result

A
24%

H
43%

D
33%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.54

0-0
12%
Equivalent Odds.
2-0 = 4.71

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.06

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.36

BTTS No = 1.65

2-2 = 6.60

Draw - 2.75

Draw - 3.00

0-0 = 8.25

Away Win - 6.60

Away Win - 4.13

31 Dec 2016 at Old Trafford

Man United

vs

7th

League Position

1st

Grade

Match Odds - Man United 1.29 (78%)

Middlesbrough
12thMiddlesbrough
4th

Draw 6.50 (15%) Middlesbrough 17.50 (6%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Man United -1.50 paying 1.85, Middlesbrough +1.50 paying 2.15
Over 2.5 Goals 1.97 (51%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.02 (50%)

At 6.50 (15% chance) the draw has massive appeal here. Both Man Utd and Middlesbrough have drawn 4 of their last 6.
Against similar opposition the draw has come in 24% of the time and 10 out of 38 games in the overall record.

Man United Home Form

Head to Head
Result

Middlesbrough Away Form

26/12/16 v Sunderland(3rd) 3-1

Season

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Burnley(3rd) 1-0

11/12/16 v Tottenham(1st) 1-0

2015/16

11/12/16 v Southampton(1st) 1-0

27/11/16 v West Ham(3rd) 1-1

2014/15

26/11/16 v Leicester(1st) 2-2

19/11/16 v Arsenal(1st) 1-1

2013/14

05/11/16 v Man City(2nd) 1-1

29/10/16 v Burnley(4th) 0-0

2012/13

22/10/16 v Arsenal(1st) 0-0

02/10/16 v Stoke(2nd) 1-1

2011/12

01/10/16 v West Ham(2nd) 1-1

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Man United's home record W12 D5 L2

Middlesbrough's away record is W1 D5 L3

Combined the overall record is H15 D10 A3

132%

D
26%

A
11%

A
11%
H
63%

A
11%

H
33%

D
36%

D
56%

88%

H
53%

A 6%
D
15%
H
78%

A
-31%

Man United (Home)

Middlesbrough (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Man United's home record > 2.5 = 7, < 2.5 = 12

Middlesbrough's home record > 2.5 = 3, < 2.5 = 6

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 10 <2.5 = 18

30%

<2.5
63%

>2.5
37%

<2.5
67%

>2.5
33%

<2.5
64%

>2.5
36%

>2.5

<2.5
49%

<2.5

>2.5
51%

-30%

Man United (Home)

Middlesbrough (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Man United vs Middlesbrough - Similar Opposition Analysis

Man United have played 14 games against 4th grade opposition at home. Middlesbrough have played 3 games against
1st grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 17 games.

The home team won in 12 of 17 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Man United a 71% chance, based on
these stats. A draw featured in 4 games (24% chance), the away side won 1 games (6% chance)
A
D 7%
14%

53%

A 0%

A
D 6%
23%

H
33%
H
79%

H
71%

D
67%

A 6%
D
15%

H
3%

H
78%

A
-9%

Man United (Home)

Combined Odds

Middlesbrough (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
9 of the 17 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 53% chance. the other 8
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 47% chance
4%

<2.5
43%

>2.5
57%

Man United (Home)

<2.5
67%

>2.5
33%

<2.5
47%

>2.5

>2.5
53%

<2.5
49%

<2.5

>2.5
51%

-5%

Combined Odds

Middlesbrough (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Man United with a -1.50 goal start.

The home team have won 9 points (53%) in similar games, the away team 8 points (47%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a half
win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back Middlesbrough
L
L
L
L
L
L
Back Man United
W W W W W W

2
W
L

3
W
L

Similar Opposition AH Results

>3
W
L
HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Man United.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score

1st Half Result

3 most frequent
Scores
N
59%

Y
41%

3-1

29%

0-0

18%

D
35%

A
6%

2nd Half Result

D
41%
H
59%

A
6%
H
53%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.43

1-0
18%
Equivalent Odds.
3-1 = 3.40

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 1.70

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 1.89

BTTS No = 1.70

0-0 = 5.67

Draw - 2.83

Draw - 2.43

1-0 = 5.67

Away Win - 17.00

Away Win - 17.00

31 Dec 2016 at Anfield

Liverpool

vs

3rd

League Position

2nd

1st

Grade

1st

Match Odds - Liverpool 2.44 (41%)

Man City

Draw 3.70 (27%) Man City 3.18 (31%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Liverpool -0.25 paying 2.08, Man City +0.25 paying 1.91
Over 2.5 Goals 1.68 (60%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.43 (41%)

From a value perspective, Liverpool amazingly appeal in this game. The similar opposition record probably sums it up
best with the home team winning 17 from 32 games, 53% of the time. This compares to Liverpool's price of 2.44 which
gives them a 41% chance.

Liverpool Home Form

Head to Head

27/12/16 v Stoke(2nd) 4-1

Season

Result

11/12/16 v West Ham(3rd) 2-2

2015/16

Home

26/11/16 v Sunderland(3rd) 2-0

2014/15

Home

06/11/16 v Watford(2nd) 6-1

2013/14

Home

22/10/16 v West Brom(3rd) 2-1

2012/13

17/10/16 v Man United(2nd) 0-0

2011/12

Man City Away Form

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Hull(4th) 0-3

Yes

10/12/16 v Leicester(1st) 4-2

Yes

26/11/16 v Burnley(3rd) 1-2

Yes

19/11/16 v Crystal Palace(4th) 1-2

Draw

Yes

29/10/16 v West Brom(3rd) 0-4

Draw

No

02/10/16 v Tottenham(1st) 2-0

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Liverpool's home record W11 D7 L1

Man City's away record is W11 D4 L4

Combined the overall record is H15 D11 A12

D
37%

A
5%
H
58%

A
58%

H
21%
D
21%

7%

A
32%

H
39%

D
29%

H
D

0%

A
31%

H
41%

D
27%
-4%

Liverpool (Home)

Man City (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Liverpool's home record > 2.5 = 12, < 2.5 = 7

Man City's home record > 2.5 = 14, < 2.5 = 5

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 26 <2.5 = 12

15%

<2.5
37%

>2.5
63%

Liverpool (Home)

<2.5
26%

<2.5
32%

>2.5
74%

Man City (Away)

<2.5
41%

>2.5

>2.5
68%

<2.5

>2.5
59%

-23%

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Liverpool vs Man City - Similar Opposition Analysis

Liverpool have played 19 games against 1st grade opposition at home. Man City have played 13 games against 1st grade
opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 32 games.

The home team won in 17 of 32 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Liverpool a 53% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 9 games (28% chance), the away side won 6 games (19% chance)
A
21%
D
26%

30%

A
15%
H
53%

Liverpool (Home)

D
31%

A
19%
D
28%

H
54%

4%

H
53%

A
31%

D
27%

A
-40%

Combined Odds

Man City (Away)

Value

H
41%

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
23 of the 32 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 72% chance. the other 9
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 28% chance
21%

<2.5
26%

<2.5
31%
>2.5
74%

<2.5
28%

>2.5
69%

<2.5
41%

>2.5

>2.5
72%

<2.5

>2.5
59%

-32%

Liverpool (Home)

Combined Odds

Man City (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Liverpool with a -0.25 goal start.

The home team have won 17 points (62%) in similar games, the away team 10.5 points (38%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Score Margin
Back Man City
Back Liverpool

Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes

<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
L
L
L
L 0.5L W
W W W W 0.5W L

17

2
W
L

3
W
L

Similar Opposition AH Results

>3
W
L

9
6

HOME

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Liverpool.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score
3 most frequent
Scores

N
25%

Any Other 19%

Y
75%

2-1

13%

1st Half Result

A
22%

H
41%

D
37%

2nd Half Result

A
22%

H
37%

D
41%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 1.33

1-2
13%
Equivalent Odds.
Any Other = 5.33

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.46

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.67

BTTS No = 4.00

2-1 = 8.00

Draw - 2.67

Draw - 2.46

1-2 = 8.00

Away Win - 4.57

Away Win - 4.57

01 Jan 2017 at Vicarage Road

Watford

vs

13th

League Position

6th

3rd

Grade

1st

Match Odds - Watford 6.00 (17%)

Tottenham

Draw 4.00 (25%) Tottenham 1.74 (57%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Watford 1.00 paying 1.75, Tottenham -1.00 paying 2.33
Over 2.5 Goals 2.05 (49%) Under 2.5 Goals 1.93 (52%)

Watford are paying 6 at home and this is value, even against a decent team such as Spurs. The 1 goal headstart for
Watford probably appeals the most given it has claimed 71% of points, with 15 wins from 22 games.

Watford Home Form

Head to Head

Tottenham Away Form

26/12/16 v Crystal Palace(4th) 1-1

Season

Result

Score

10/12/16 v Everton(2nd) 3-2

2015/16

Away

27/11/16 v Stoke(2nd) 0-1

2014/15

26/11/16 v Chelsea(2nd) 2-1

19/11/16 v Leicester(1st) 2-1

2013/14

06/11/16 v Arsenal(1st) 1-1

29/10/16 v Hull(3rd) 1-0

2012/13

22/10/16 v Bournemouth(3rd) 0-0

01/10/16 v Bournemouth(2nd) 2-2

2011/12

15/10/16 v West Brom(3rd) 1-1

<> 2.5

28/12/16 v Southampton(1st) 1-4

Yes

11/12/16 v Man United(2nd) 1-0

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Watford's home record W6 D6 L7

Tottenham's away record is W8 D7 L4

Combined the overall record is H10 D13 A15

A
37%

H
31%

A
42%

D
32%

Watford (Home)

H
21%
D
37%

A
40%

H
26%

58%

H
17%

37%

D
34%

A
57%

D
25%

-31%

Tottenham (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Watford's home record > 2.5 = 12, < 2.5 = 7

Tottenham's home record > 2.5 = 10, < 2.5 = 9

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 22 <2.5 = 16

19%

<2.5
37%

>2.5
63%

<2.5
47%

>2.5
53%

<2.5
42%

>2.5
58%

>2.5

<2.5
52%

<2.5

>2.5
48%

-19%

Watford (Home)

Tottenham (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Watford vs Tottenham - Similar Opposition Analysis

Watford have played 11 games against 1st grade opposition at home. Tottenham have played 16 games against 3rd
grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 27 games.

The home team won in 7 of 27 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Watford a 26% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 8 games (30% chance), the away side won 12 games (44% chance)

A
55%

H
27%

A
38%

D
18%

H
25%

A
44%

D
37%

H
26%

56%

D
30%

H
17%

19%

A
57%

D
25%

-23%

Watford (Home)

Combined Odds

Tottenham (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
14 of the 27 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 52% chance. the other 13
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 48% chance
6%

<2.5
36%

>2.5
64%

<2.5
56%

>2.5
44%

<2.5
48%

>2.5

>2.5
52%

>2.5
48%

<2.5
52%

<2.5
-7%

Watford (Home)

Combined Odds

Tottenham (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Watford with a 1.00 goal start.

The home team have won 15 points (71%) in similar games, the away team 6 points (29%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a half
win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back Tottenham
L
L
L
P W W
Back Watford
W W W P
L
L

2
W
L

3
W
L

>3
W
L

15

Similar Opposition AH Results

6
0
HOME

HOME 1/2

6
0

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Watford.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score
3 most frequent
Scores

N
44%

Y
56%

1-1

19%

0-1

15%

1st Half Result

A H
26% 22%
D
52%

2nd Half Result

A
33%

H
26%

D
41%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 1.80

1-3
11%
Equivalent Odds.
1-1 = 5.40

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 4.50

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 3.86

BTTS No = 2.25

0-1 = 6.75

Draw - 1.93

Draw - 2.45

1-3 = 9.00

Away Win - 3.86

Away Win - 3.00

01 Jan 2017 at Emirates Stadium

Arsenal

vs

4th

League Position

10th

1st

Grade

4th

Match Odds - Arsenal 1.36 (74%)

Crystal Palace

Draw 6.00 (17%) Crystal Palace 11.00 (9%)

Asian Handicap Match Line - Arsenal -1.50 paying 1.98, Crystal Palace +1.50 paying 1.99
Over 2.5 Goals 1.56 (64%) Under 2.5 Goals 2.57 (39%)

We can't see Arsenal losing this but there is no value backing them. One standout feature of similar games is the lack of
draws. Palace are value based on the stats and there is always a danger of a ressurgence given the new manager effect.
Not sure it will happen at the Emirates though.

Arsenal Home Form

Head to Head

Crystal Palace Away Form

26/12/16 v West Brom(3rd) 1-0

Season

Result

Score

<> 2.5

26/12/16 v Watford(3rd) 1-1

10/12/16 v Stoke(2nd) 3-1

2015/16

Draw

No

10/12/16 v Hull(4th) 3-3

27/11/16 v Bournemouth(2nd) 3-1

2014/15

Home

Yes

26/11/16 v Swansea(3rd) 5-4

06/11/16 v Tottenham(1st) 1-1

2013/14

Home

No

05/11/16 v Burnley(3rd) 3-2

22/10/16 v Middlesbrough(4th) 0-0

2012/13

22/10/16 v Leicester(1st) 3-1

15/10/16 v Swansea(3rd) 3-2

2011/12

30/09/16 v Everton(3rd) 1-1

Record Against All Teams- Rolling Season - Match Odds

Arsenal's home record W12 D4 L3

Crystal Palace's away record is W2 D7 L10

Combined the overall record is H22 D11 A5

D
21%

A
10%

A
16%
H
63%

D
37%

H
53%

74%

A
13%
D
29%

45%

H
58%

A 9%
D
17%

H
74%

A
-21%

Arsenal (Home)

Crystal Palace (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Betting Market Odds

Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season - Over Unders

Arsenal's home record > 2.5 = 10, < 2.5 = 9

Crystal Palace's home record > 2.5 = 11, < 2.5 = 8

Combined the overall record is >2.5 = 21 <2.5 = 17

15%

<2.5
47%

>2.5
53%

<2.5
42%

>2.5
58%

<2.5
45%

>2.5
55%

<2.5
38%

>2.5
<2.5

>2.5
62%

-14%

Arsenal (Home)

Crystal Palace (Away)

Combined Result

Value

Market Odds

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - Similar Opposition Analysis

Arsenal have played 14 games against 4th grade opposition at home. Crystal Palace have played 15 games against 1st
grade opposition away. In total, the below analysis is based off 29 games.

The home team won in 23 of 29 similar games featuring these two teams, giving Arsenal a 79% chance, based on these
stats. A draw featured in 2 games (7% chance), the away side won 4 games (14% chance)
A
0%

D
14%

D 0%

H
86%

A 9%
D
17%

8%

H
79%

H
73%

Arsenal (Home)

52%

A
D 14%
7%

A
27%

H
74%

-59%

Combined Odds

Crystal Palace (Away)

Value

Betting Market Odds

Over Under
17 of the 29 similar games featuring one of these two teams has resulted in over 2.5 goals, a 59% chance. the other 12
similar games ended in under 2.5 goals, a 41% chance
6%

<2.5
50%

>2.5
50%

<2.5
33%

<2.5
41%

>2.5
67%

<2.5
38%

>2.5

>2.5
59%

<2.5

>2.5
62%

-9%

Arsenal (Home)

Combined Odds

Crystal Palace (Away)

Value

2.5 Goal Odds

Asian Handicap - Arsenal with a -1.50 goal start.

The home team have won 15 points (52%) in similar games, the away team 14 points (48%) ,Point for a win, 1/2 for a
half win.
Asian Handicap Bet Outcomes
Score Margin
<-3 -3 -2 -1 0
1
Back Crystal Palace
L
L
L
L
L
L
Back Arsenal
W W W W W W

2
W
L

3
W
L

15

>3
W
L

HOME

Similar Opposition AH Results

14

HOME 1/2

PUSH

AWAY 1/2

AWAY

The Handicap should give both teams a 50% chance of winning, so here the value is on Arsenal.

Both Teams to Score

Correct Score

1st Half Result

3 most frequent
Scores
N
62%

Y
38%

Equivalent Odds.
BTTS Yes = 2.64
BTTS No = 1.61

2-0

24%

1-0

14%

Any Other 14%

Equivalent Odds.
2-0 = 4.14

A
4%
D
48%

H
48%

2nd Half Result

A
17%
D
21%

H
62%

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 2.07

Equivalent Odds.
Home Win - 1.61

1-0 = 7.25

Draw - 2.07

Draw - 4.83

Any Other = 7.25

Away Win - 29.00

Away Win - 5.80

Key
FP
Pld
W
D
L

Final Position in the overall league table for the season.

Number of games played
Number of games won
Number of games drawn
Number of games lost

GF
GA
GD
Pts
NB

Number of goals scored

Number of goals conceded
Goal Difference (Scored-conceded)
Number of points won (3 for win, 1 for draw, 0 for loss)
Burnley and Hull Stats from 2014/15 season until they drop off.

Form Table
Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home
Chelsea
Tottenham
Liverpool
Arsenal
Burnley
Stoke
Watford
West Ham
Bournemouth
Man United
West Brom
Sunderland
Southampton
Everton
Man City
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Swansea
Hull
Crystal Palace

Pld W D
6 6 0
6 5 1
6 4 2
6 4 2
6 4 0
6 3 2
6 3 2
6 3 2
6 3 1
6 2 4
6 3 1
6 3 1
6 3 1
6 2 3
6 2 3
6 3 0
6 2 2
6 2 1
6 1 2
6 1 0

L
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
2
0
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
3
3
5

GF
18
16
16
11
10
9
9
6
13
7
11
8
6
7
8
6
10
11
6
7

GA
1
4
5
5
8
4
7
7
9
4
9
7
7
5
7
5
9
13
12
10

GD
17
12
11
6
2
5
2
-1
4
3
2
1
-1
2
1
1
1
-2
-6
-3

Pts
18 1st
16 2nd
14 3rd
14 4th
12 5th
11 6th
11 7th
11 8th
10 9th
10 10th
10 11th
10 12th
10 13th
9 14th
9 15th
9 16th
8 17th
7 18th
5 19th
3 20th

Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Away
Chelsea
Liverpool
Man City
Man United
Arsenal
West Ham
Stoke
Tottenham
Southampton
West Brom
Middlesbrough
Everton
Bournemouth
Watford
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Leicester
Burnley
Swansea
Hull

Pld W D
6 6 0
6 4 1
6 4 0
6 3 2
6 3 1
6 2 2
6 2 2
6 1 3
6 1 3
6 1 2
6 0 4
6 1 1
6 1 1
6 1 1
6 0 3
6 1 0
6 0 2
6 0 1
6 0 1
6 0 0

L
0
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
4
4
4
3
5
4
5
5
6

GF
10
13
13
8
13
10
7
7
5
5
4
6
6
3
12
3
5
2
5
1

GA
1
7
8
7
7
9
9
6
7
7
6
12
13
12
16
12
11
12
18
15

GD
9
6
5
1
6
1
-2
1
-2
-2
-2
-6
-7
-9
-4
-9
-6
-10
-13
-14

Pts
18 1st
13 2nd
12 3rd
11 4th
10 5th
8 6th
8 7th
6 8th
6 9th
5 10th
4 11th
4 12th
4 13th
4 14th
3 15th
3 16th
2 17th
1 18th
1 19th
0 20th

Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home & Away

Chelsea
Liverpool
Arsenal
Tottenham
Man City
Man United
Stoke
West Ham
Southampton
West Brom
Watford
Bournemouth
Middlesbrough
Everton
Burnley
Sunderland
Leicester
Swansea
Crystal Palace
Hull

Pld
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12

W
12
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
2
2
1
1

D
0
3
3
4
3
6
4
4
4
3
3
2
4
4
1
1
4
2
3
2

L
0
1
2
2
3
1
3
3
4
5
5
6
5
5
7
7
6
8
8
9

GF
28
29
24
23
21
15
16
16
11
16
12
19
10
13
12
11
15
16
19
7

GA
2
12
12
10
15
11
13
16
14
16
19
22
11
17
20
19
20
31
26
27

GD
26
17
12
13
6
4
3
0
-3
0
-7
-3
-1
-4
-8
-8
-5
-15
-7
-20

Pts
36
27
24
22
21
21
19
19
16
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
10
8
6
5

Key
FP
Pld
W
D
L

Final Position in the overall league table for the season.

Number of games played
Number of games won
Number of games drawn
Number of games lost

GF
GA
GD
Pts
NB

Number of goals scored

Number of goals conceded
Goal Difference (Scored-conceded)
Number of points won (3 for win, 1 for draw, 0 for loss)
Burnley and Hull Stats from 2014/15 season until they drop off.

Season so far
Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home
Chelsea
Tottenham
Liverpool
Arsenal
Burnley
Man City
Man United
Everton
Bournemouth
Leicester
Southampton
West Brom
Watford
West Ham
Stoke
Middlesbrough
Sunderland
Swansea
Hull
Crystal Palace

Pld W D
9 8 0
9 7 2
8 6 2
9 6 2
10 6 1
9 5 3
9 4 4
9 4 4
9 5 1
9 4 3
9 4 3
9 4 2
9 4 2
9 4 2
9 3 3
9 3 1
9 3 1
9 2 2
9 2 2
9 2 1

L
1
0
0
1
3
1
1
1
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
6

GF
24
19
25
19
15
17
14
12
16
15
9
16
14
9
11
9
11
14
9
12

GA
4
5
7
10
10
9
7
7
12
10
9
13
13
14
13
10
15
20
18
13

GD
20
14
18
9
5
8
7
5
4
5
0
3
1
-5
-2
-1
-4
-6
-9
-1

Pts
24 1st
23 2nd
20 3rd
20 4th
19 5th
18 6th
16 7th
16 8th
16 9th
15 10th
15 11th
14 12th
14 13th
14 14th
12 15th
10 16th
10 17th
8 18th
8 19th
7 20th

Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Away
Chelsea
Man City
Liverpool
Arsenal
Man United
Tottenham
Everton
West Brom
Southampton
Crystal Palace
Stoke
Middlesbrough
West Ham
Watford
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Swansea
Hull
Leicester
Burnley

Pld W D
9 7 1
9 7 0
10 6 2
9 5 2
9 5 2
9 3 4
9 3 1
9 2 3
9 2 3
9 2 3
9 2 3
9 1 5
9 2 2
9 2 2
9 1 2
9 1 1
9 1 1
9 1 1
9 0 2
8 0 1

L
1
2
2
2
2
2
5
4
4
4
4
3
5
5
6
7
7
7
7
7

GF
14
22
20
20
13
14
11
7
9
17
9
7
14
8
7
5
7
5
8
2

GA
7
11
14
9
11
8
14
9
11
20
15
10
18
17
19
16
21
21
21
18

GD
7
11
6
11
2
6
-3
-2
-2
-3
-6
-3
-4
-9
-12
-11
-14
-16
-13
-16

Pts
22 1st
21 2nd
20 3rd
17 4th
17 5th
13 6th
10 7th
9 8th
9 9th
9 10th
9 11th
8 12th
8 13th
8 14th
5 15th
4 16th
4 17th
4 18th
2 19th
1 20th

Pos.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home & Away

Chelsea
Liverpool
Man City
Arsenal
Tottenham
Man United
Everton
Southampton
West Brom
Watford
West Ham
Bournemouth
Stoke
Burnley
Middlesbrough
Leicester
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
Swansea
Hull

Pld
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18

W
15
12
12
11
10
9
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
6
4
4
4
4
3
3

D
1
4
3
4
6
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
6
2
6
5
4
2
3
3

L
2
2
3
3
2
3
6
6
7
8
8
9
7
10
8
9
10
12
12
12

GF
38
45
39
39
33
27
23
18
23
22
23
23
20
17
16
23
29
16
21
14

GA
11
21
20
19
13
18
21
20
22
30
32
31
28
28
20
31
33
31
41
39

GD
27
24
19
20
20
9
2
-2
1
-8
-9
-8
-8
-11
-4
-8
-4
-15
-20
-25

Pts
46
40
39
37
36
33
26
24
23
22
22
21
21
20
18
17
16
14
12
12

Key
FP
Pld
W
D
L

Final Position in the overall league table for the season.

Number of games played
Number of games won
Number of games drawn
Number of games lost

GF
GA
GD
Pts
NB

Number of goals scored

Number of goals conceded
Goal Difference (Scored-conceded)
Number of points won (3 for win, 1 for draw, 0 for loss)
Burnley and Hull Stats from 2014/15 season until they drop off.

Rolling Season
FP
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home
Tottenham
Man United
Liverpool
Arsenal
Southampton
Leicester
Chelsea
Man City
West Ham
West Brom
Burnley
Swansea
Everton
Stoke
Sunderland
Bournemouth
Watford
Hull
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough

Pld
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9

W
13
12
11
12
12
11
9
10
10
8
8
8
7
7
7
8
6
6
4
3

D L GF
4 2 37
5 2 31
7 1 48
4 3 37
4 3 32
6 2 34
8 2 43
5 4 37
5 4 28
5 6 25
4 7 22
4 7 25
6 6 26
6 6 21
5 7 23
2 9 29
6 7 25
4 9 20
3 12 19
1 5 10

GA
13
12
19
19
19
15
21
19
28
25
18
30
19
31
26
33
26
31
28
11

GD
24
19
29
18
13
19
22
18
0
0
4
-5
7
-10
-3
-4
-1
-11
-9
-1

Pts
43 1st
41 2nd
40 3rd
40 4th
40 5th
39 6th
35 7th
35 8th
35 9th
29 10th
28 11th
28 12th
27 13th
27 14th
26 15th
26 16th
24 17th
22 18th
15 19th
10 20th

FP
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Away
Chelsea
Man City
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
Man United
Southampton
West Ham
Leicester
Everton
Stoke
West Brom
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Swansea
Watford
Crystal Palace
Hull
Burnley
Middlesbrough

Pld
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9

W
13
11
10
8
7
8
7
5
5
5
5
3
4
3
4
4
2
3
2
1

D
3
4
3
7
8
4
5
6
5
5
4
8
5
6
3
2
7
3
4
5

L
3
4
6
4
4
7
7
8
9
9
10
8
10
10
12
13
10
13
13
3

GF
33
38
39
33
36
23
20
32
20
22
22
15
17
21
22
14
26
12
11
7

GA
15
23
31
20
26
26
20
33
28
30
39
23
33
34
41
36
41
35
35
10

GD
18
15
8
13
10
-3
0
-1
-8
-8
-17
-8
-16
-13
-19
-22
-15
-23
-24
-3

Pts
42 1st
37 2nd
33 3rd
31 4th
29 5th
28 6th
26 7th
21 8th
20 9th
20 10th
19 11th
17 12th
17 13th
15 14th
15 15th
14 16th
13 17th
12 18th
10 19th
8 20th

FP
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th

Home & Away

Chelsea
Tottenham
Liverpool
Man City
Arsenal
Man United
Southampton
Leicester
West Ham
Everton
West Brom
Stoke
Bournemouth
Swansea
Sunderland
Burnley
Watford
Hull
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough

Pld
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
18

W
22
21
21
21
19
20
19
16
15
12
11
12
12
12
10
10
10
9
6
4

D
11
11
10
9
12
9
9
11
11
11
13
10
7
7
11
8
8
7
10
6

L
5
6
7
8
7
9
10
11
12
15
14
16
19
19
17
20
20
22
22
8

GF
76
70
87
75
73
54
52
54
60
48
40
43
46
47
44
33
39
32
45
17

GA
36
33
50
42
45
38
39
43
61
49
48
70
66
71
60
53
62
66
69
21

GD
40
37
37
33
28
16
13
11
-1
-1
-8
-27
-20
-24
-16
-20
-23
-34
-24
-4

Pts
77
74
73
72
69
69
66
59
56
47
46
46
43
43
41
38
38
34
28
18

Guide to the Guide

Who Wrote the Guide?
The EPL Form Guide has been produced by the team at Valuesportsbetting.com. We have been studying the football betting markets for
over 15 years with a keen interest in the major leagues.
Why was the Guide written?
We have produced the EPL Form guide to analyse the stats in the context of the betting markets. There are many stats services available
online but we hadnt seen many that tie back the stats to the actual betting markets. The aim is to highlight potential value
opportunities in the betting markets based on analysing historical betting statistics. Readers can combine the Free Season Guide (found
on our website), Form Guide, their own knowledge and any other information they see fit to make more informed betting decisions.
Whos it for?
Anyone who is interested in the English Premier League, betting and finding value. Well be able to identify where the value lies for a
range of betting markets for every match (based on the stats provided).
We have assumed some basic knowledge of markets and value. More information and external links can be found on our website
www.valuesportsbeting.com
How does the Guide work?
The Season and Form Guides are based around two simple principles.
1) Teams play differently at home and away, and should therefore be analysed as two separate teams.
2) Teams should be grouped into grades to give a better understanding of how teams play against different strength opposition. We
compile a rolling score for each team based on a number of factors around performance, to grade teams from 1 (strongest) to 4
(weakest). Gradings for teams are not static and can change at any point in the season.
We take the above principles and individual team records to analyse a range of betting markets to find potential anomalies and value
prospects. The EPL Form Guide takes this one step further and actually compiles odds to be compared to the odds of the individual
games and markets in question to find value.
Gradings for the 20 Premiership teams are currently as follows. They are objective, based on recent history, and some you may disagree
with. We have purposely done this to take the emotion out of the process.

Home Gradings
Arsenal
Leicester
Tottenham
Southampton
Liverpool
Man United
Man City
West Ham
Chelsea
Stoke
Everton
West Brom
Burnley
Bournemouth
Swansea
Watford
Sunderland
Crystal Palace
Hull
Middlesbrough

Away Gradings
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
4th
4th
4th

Arsenal
Liverpool
Man City
Tottenham
Chelsea
Man United
Leicester
Everton
Southampton
West Ham
Bournemouth
Stoke
Watford
Sunderland
Swansea
West Brom
Crystal Palace
Hull
Burnley
Middlesbrough

1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
3rd
4th
4th
4th
4th

How to read the Guide

The Form Guide is split into two pages for each match.
Page 1
Match Details - Date, Venue, Teams, Current League Positions (Home League for Home Team, Away League for Away Team, not overall league
position) and Current Gradings
Betting Market Odds - As at the time of publication, covering Match Odds, Asian Handicap Line and Under Over 2.5 Goals markets

Head to Head - A record of the same fixture in the previous 5 fixtures

Recent Form - Last 6 games, again, home form only for the home team and away form only for the away team.
Record Against All Teams - Rolling Season Analysis
We look at how each team performed against all opposition in their last 19 home or away games (19 games being a full season)
We combine the home stats for the home team and the away stats for the away team to come up with a % chance for each outcome.
Finally we compare this to the actual odds from the betting markets, resulting in a value indicator for each selection.

This analysis is done for the match odds and under / over 2.5 goals markets. The limitation with this analysis is that it doesn't take into account the
strength of the opposition. However, we can use it as a primer for the similar opposition analysis on the following page.

Page 2
Similar Opposition Analysis
The idea behind the similar opposition analysis is as it says. We want to find out how each team has performed against similar oppoistion in
recent seasons to pick up trends. An example would be how a mid table team (say grade 2/3) performs at home to a visiting superior (grade 1)
team. They may consistently defend in the hope of jagging a draw or small win. If there is a trend, it may be repeated in this game, which might not
be picked up by the betting markets in the odds offered.

Again, we add the combined similar opposition performance for both teams to come up with a % chance for each outcome which we then
compare to the betting market odds. This is done for match Odds and Under/ Over 2.5 Goals markets.

The sample used for each analysis is explained at the top. For games featuring established EPL teams there will be a larger sample. Newly
promoted or teams that have only been in the division a year or so will have limited records. We make note of the strength of the sample if it is
relevant.
Asian Handicap Analysis
Still using the similar games sample, we take a look at the Asian Handicap market and look at what the outcome would have been in the sample
games, with the same Asian Handicap Line. If there is a skew towards one team, then there is value because the AH line has been set at odds of
approximately evens, giving each outcome a 50/50 chance. For more info on how Asian Handicap Betting works there are a few external links on the
site.
Other Markets
Here we have used the similar games sample to compile odds on a range of markets. Both Teams to Score, Most Frequent Scorelines, and the Match
Markets for 1st and 2nd Half Results. We highlight selections that may require further investigation, you can do this by checking that there are better
odds with the betting markets than our compiled odds suggest.

Appendix
Converting Odds to %
Odds are an alternative way of reflecting probabilities. To convert odds to probabilities simply divide 1 by the odds to get a % chance probability or
divide 1 by the % chance to get the odds
Example - If an event has a 50% chance of occuring it will be priced at $2.00. (1/2.00= 0.5 or 50% and 1/0.5 = 2)
Team Records Home/Away
All stats are based on a teams home record only, if they are playing at home and away record only for teams playing away.

We believe a clear distinction should be made and it is more accurate to use one or the other given the differences in manager style and team
setup and indeed record when playing at home versus away.
Timeframes
Season So Far - as the name suggests, the record starts at the beginning of the current season and ends at the last game.

Short Term (Form) - based on a rolling 6 home or away game calculation.

Long Term (Rolling Season) - based on a rolling 19 home or away game calcualtion to represent a teams record over a whole season.

Definitions

BTTS - Yes = Both Teams To Score

BTTS - No = Either team not to score or both teams not to score
Score Margin = Home Team Score minus the Away team score. A positive number represents a home win, 0 represents a draw and a negative
number represents an away win

Terms & Conditions / Disclaimer

Odds are accurate at time of document creation and represent the best available from various odds checking websites.
The information provided in this report is our opinion only and is based purely on the analysis presented in the guide. Under no circumstance do
any statements here represent a recommendation to place a bet or make any kind of investment. You are responsible for you own due diligence.
To summarise, we do not provide gambling advice, nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or
any other result. The guide is for educational purposes only.

Copyright 2016 by valuesportsbetting. All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner
whatsoever without the express permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations.
www.valuesportsbetting.com