Picking up on Backlash insurance:

Off Center: Hacker and Pearson

Republicans have gotten more and more extreme since 94 and are more polarizing
as we have gone
-

Why dont voters kick these people out??

Hacker has to answer this in order for his claim to hold
(they offer a partial answerBACKLASH INSURANCE)
o Set of practices set into motion by Majority leader in senate to protect
their party as they become more extreme
1. Agenda Control (last week we went over)
2. Clever use of legislative rules (last week we went over)
a. To clarify: closed rules in congress basic idea is that the
majority party in congress can declare that congress is
operating under closed rules (bills are closed off to
amendments)
b. Prevents the minority party from suggesting some popular
policy that would amend and embarrass the republicans.
3. Deceptive Policy Design
a. If people dont know what the laws are they wont object.
Common for some parts to be popular and some parts to be
unpopular. Front load the popular parts of the law that come
into effect first.
b. Personal and Business tax cuts. Everyone loves personal tax
cuts, but everyone does not like business tax cuts. Personal
tax cuts were front loaded, business tax cuts were much
bigger but didnt happen for a few years
c. Sunset Provisions: tax cuts will happen, but then will go away
in 10 years they will sunset in 10 years
d. Leadership intentionally understating the tax cuts
4. Financial Aid
a. Each party gives a lot of money to members of congress who
are in close races. Party leadership says vote the way that
we want and funnels a lot of money to people in close races.
Where is the money coming from? Leading positions in party
now has rules- to be eligible for leadership position you must
raise ____ lots of money
b. Different from lobbyist from candidates
c. Money is coming from: The Clinton Foundation funds the
Sanders Campaign

General idea: politicians in congress have found ways to still be reelected when they
support unpopular policies

Summarizing:
Each of the readings include implicit argument: know the implicit argument and the
counter argument
Bishop: public opinion is inherently meaningless and people are so uninformed and
ignorant
How can you respond:
Public often does have meaningful views, on broad issues more likely than
specific. Not saying that it is smart, sensible or good, but it is stable and reflects
forethought on the issues.
Bishop criticizes: wuestions that are super vauge
Not useless just because they are vague
Hibbs: You can predict pres. elections not based on public opinion. Study of PO is
overrated.
You can do better than hibbs on predicting elections if you add PO and
especially in state and local elections

Key and Hacker together:

Key says PO doesnt tell us anything about how the state works at the national
levels
Hacker says politicians defy PO and get away with it and b/c PO has so little to do
with the policies congress enacts says that we shouldnt study it.
Determines the range of acceptable policies will even consider. PO decides
who people with vote for. Who is elected is what makes a difference. Public opinion
does matter

COUNTER ARGUMENT: KEY HACKER AND HIBBS counter::: PO would be important to

us even if it didnt affect policy and elections at all. We have an inherent interest in
finding out what people around us believe. Moral views, how does the public view
this or that

UNIT ON POLLING
Polls and surveys the main way we learn about PO and the main way presidents
learn about PO

MILLONS of dollars spent by politicians on polls and surveys. Do affect what

presidents actually do.
1. Basic concepts of Polling
a. Sample and Representative of the Population
i. No matter what the population is 250 million adults in America,
about half vote, and its just impossible to survey all them.
Always trying to figure out percentage and we need a sample for
that.
ii. Fundamental issue is that we have to have a sample
iii. Drawing a sample is important to be representative
2. Biggest Polling Screw up
a. 1936 Literary Digest Example
3. Margin of Error
4. Special problems of Polling in contemp. America
5. Biggest modern innovation