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Abstract
The present deterministic pore pressure and fracture gradient
prediction techniques simplify the input variables from a
statistical range of data to a deterministic value, thereby
producing over-simplified deterministic pore pressure and
fracture gradient results. As a consequence, we lose the ability
to quantitatively analyze risks, and we cannot quantify the
uncertainties of our pore pressure and fracture
gradient prediction.
This paper describes a methodology for quantitative risk
analysis (QRA) of pore pressure and fracture gradient
prediction and shows that applications of QRA in this area
will improve the techniques of pore pressure and fracture
gradient calculations. In addition, QRA will open a full range
of new applications in risk prediction, risks evaluation, risk
management, decision making, real-time kick and loss-return
risk monitoring, risk control, and casing design.
Introduction
The present methods of pore pressure and fracture gradient
prediction are deterministic approaches that use seismic,
logging and drilling data to calculate pore pressure and
fracture gradient. The result of the prediction is a single-line
curve for pressure and for fracture gradient as shown in Fig. 1
The sources of input variables, such as density log for
formation bulk density, sand strength analysis log for
Poissons ratio, resistivity log, seismic or sonic log, and mud
log etc, determine that the input data for pore pressure and
fracture gradient prediction have randomness in their
statistical ranges at any given depth. Therefore, the output
results we get from the input data will be statistically
distributed. A Gaussian distribution can approximate the
Q. J. LIANG
x
=
..(1)
(x
) 2
EP = E2 + P2 (5)
The risk of taking kick (RK ) at any given depth can be
determined by:
RK = 1 (
EP
) ....(6)
EP
RF = 1 (
FE
) (7)
FE
Where:
FE = F E ...(8)
and
.(2)
COV =
SPE 77354
..(3)
EP = E P .(4)
and its standard deviation (EP ) is also given as:
FE = F2 + E2 (9)
Applications
The applications of QRA in pore pressure and fracture
prediction will not only improve the techniques of pore
pressure and fracture gradient calculations, but also will open
a full range of new applications in risk evaluation, risk
management, decision making, real-time risk monitoring, well
control, and casing design.
Improving Pore Pressure and Fracture Gradient
Prediction Technique. At any depth, the input variables for
calculating pore pressure and fracture gradient, such as
overburden gradient, Poissons ratio, resistivity, sonic travel
time, and penetration rate (or d exponent), have randomness
in their statistical ranges. Fig. 3 to Fig. 74-8 demonstrate the
randomness of input variables. Therefore, the output results
that obtained from the input data will be statistically
distributed. Fig. 7 shows the randomness relationship between
overburden and actual measured fracture pressure.8 Research
shows that pore pressure has a Gaussian distribution.1 It is safe
to assume that bulk density, Poissons ratio, transit time and
shale resistivity, and d exponent are all Gaussian distributed,
SPE 77354
APPLICATION OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TO PORE PRESSURE AND FRACTURE GRADIENT PREDICTION
PNKi = 1 R Ki
PNFi = 1 RFi
Then the total risks, RK-T and RF-T , can be calculated by:
n
RK T = 1 PNKi (10)
i =1
Where:
Q. J. LIANG
n
NKi
i =1
and
n
RF T = 1 PNFi (11)
i =1
Where:
n
NFi
i =1
Mark of Schlumberger
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SPE 77354
APPLICATION OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TO PORE PRESSURE AND FRACTURE GRADIENT PREDICTION
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to thank Schlumberger for its support and
permission to publish this paper.
4.
Reference
1.
Adams,
A.J.;
Parfitt,
S.H.L.;
Reeves,
T.B.;
Thorogood,
3.
5.
Nomenclature
COV = coefficient of variance
f(x) = probability density function (PDF)
i = index of zone i
n = total number of zones
N = total numbers of variables
PNK = probability of kick does not happen
PNF = probability of loss-return does not happen
RK = risk of taking a kick or under balance
RKi = risk of taking kick in zone i
RK-T = total risk of taking kick
RF = risk of loss-return or fracture formation
RFi = risk of loss-return in zone i
RF-T = total risk of loss-return
xi = individual variable value
= statistical mean
E = mean value of equivalent mud weigh
P = mean value of pore pressure
F = mean value of fracture gradient
EP =mean value of safety margin between pore pressure and
equivalent mud weight
FE =mean value of safety margin between equivalent mud
weight and fracture gradient
= statistical standard deviation
E = standard deviation of equivalent mud weigh
P = standard deviation of pore pressure
F = standard deviation of fracture gradient
EP = standard deviation of safety margin between pore
pressure and equivalent mud weight
FE = standard deviation of safety margin between equivalent
mud weight and fracture gradient
= standard normal probability distribution
= the series product operator.
6.
7.
9.
10. Eaton, B.A.: Using Pre-Drill Seismic and LWD Data for Safe,
Efficient Drilling, World Oil (December 1998) 51-57.
11. Plumb, R.; Edwards, S.; Pidcock, G.; Lee, D.; Stacey, B.: The
Mechanical Earth Model Concept and Its Application to High-Risk
Well Construction Projects, Paper SPE 59128, Presentation at the
2000 SPE/IADC Drilling Conference, New Orleans, 2325
February.
Q. J. LIANG
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10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
0
2000
4000
Fracture Gradient
Mud Weight
TVD
6000
8000
Pore Pressure
10000
12000
14000
16000
E
RK
F
RF
Figure 2 - Typical distribution of pore pressure (PP), fracture gradient (FG), and bottomhole EMW
19
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APPLICATION OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TO PORE PRESSURE AND FRACTURE GRADIENT PREDICTION
Q. J. LIANG
SPE 77354
f(x)
COV2
COV1
E
margin
Pressure
Figure 9 - Example of actual pore pressure, calculated pore pressure and equivalent mud weight
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APPLICATION OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TO PORE PRESSURE AND FRACTURE GRADIENT PREDICTION
Figure 10 - Applications of QRA in pore pressure and fracture gradient calculations can provide quantified
risk results for the chosen casing setting depth