- w a n ^ P B ^ B Kk-ufj^.OJ?.

^:

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

S6'257, Thing Ba nam 2012

NGVONG NO CONG
NGHIEN CLTU THU'C NGHIEM 6 VIET NAM

SCFDINHTHANI

Nghien ctiu ndy dua ra minh ehieng bdng thue nghiem vc nguong ng cdng eua VN. Tdc gid siidung die lii'u ng edng cua I V giai dogn 1990 - 2010, md hinh nguang ciia Hansen (1996, 2000)
vd phuong phdp u&c lugng OLS dc kiem djnh hipu ieng nguang vd u&c lugng gid tri nguang ng
edng cua I N. Cdng trinh phdt hipn ngudng ng edng eua VN Id 75,8% GDP. Phdt hipn nguang ng
cdng khdng hdm y rdng Chinh phii nin hu&ng thiet lap ng eong & miec ndy. B&i le, Chinh phd
khong thi nhgn biet duge khi ndo mpt eu soc bat thuirng xdy ra, diiu khdn ngoan Id nin giie ng
cong thdp han miec nguang ndy. Phdt hipn nguang ng edng giiip cho Chinh phii tap trung kiim
sodt tinh bin vung eua ng edng tot han.
Tir khda: Ng edng, nguang ng edng, ldng tru&ng kinh ic, md hinh hdi quy nguang.

1. Gidi thieu
Su khiing hoang loan cau va phan ung chinh sach
tai khda md rdng trong nhieu qudc gia da lam gia
tang no cdng mot each nhanh chdng. Khiing hoang
ng cdng d mdt sd nude da lam cho kinh te loan ciu
trd nen am dam, cd the gay ra con bao suy thoai kinh
te mdi. Ngr cdng dang bat dau cham mure ma d dd co
tac ddng tieu cue den tang trudng kinh te. Gan day
rat nhieu cdng trinh thuc nghiem nghien cim vh
ngudng ng cdng va tac dgng cua nd den tang trudng
kinh te d mdt sd qudc gia tren the gidi. Trong nhiing
nam dau ciia thap nien 90, ng cdng cua VN d mirc
rit cao, binh quan 240%/GDP, dugc xem la mat kha
nang thanh toan. Sau dd, nhd tang trudng kinh te cao
va Lien Xd cii xda ng vao nhirng nam cudi ciia thap
nien 90, Chinh phii da kiem soat dugc ng cdng. Tuy
nhien, cudc khung hoang toan cau xay ra vao nam
2008 da lam cho ng cdng cua VN tang nhanh. Trong
thdi gian tdi, do yeu cau tai cau tnic nen kinh te, ng
cdng dugc du bao se nang len cao hon so vdi muc
hien tai dk dap ung nhu cau vdn cho phat trien kinh
tS xa hdi. Cau hdi dat ra lieu ng cdng ciia VN nen
dugc xac lap d muc nao de dam bao su an toan cho
kinh tS vT md. Cho dSn hien tai, chua cd cdng trinh
nao nghien cim nguong ng cdng VN.

Cdng trinh ddng gdp vao li thuyet hien tai vk mo

quan he giira ng cdng va tang trudng kinh ti bini
viec udc lugng ngudng trong ham da bien. Mo hint
ngudng la khudn khd rit huru ich d^ tri^n khai phat
tich mdi quan he phi tuyen tinh giira ng cdng vatanj
Irudng kinh tc theo phuomg phap udc lugng OLS
Sir dung chudi Ihdi gian ciia bien: tang trudng ki
te, ng cdng, dg md kinh tc va lam phat, cong tri
phat hien ngudng ng cong ciia \'N trong gidi b
75,8% vdi y nghTa thdng kc 10"o. \ u g t qua ngua
nay tac dgng ciia ng cdng Ien tang trudng kinh le
am. Nghien cim dugc thict kc thanh 3 phan. Ph^n
trinh bay khung li thuyet xa\ dung md hinh nghii
cuu; phan 3 phan tich th^rc nghiem \a kk quangbif
cuu; va cudi ciing la kOl luan \a mgt vai ggiychii
sach.

2. Oanh gia cac nghien cuTu thu'c nghia

trudc day va mo hinh nghien cu'u
? '
'c nghiin cieu thuc nghiem
w^. . chu de moi quan he giuafl
mo no cone va tan.vt...
. ug va tang trupvng m h te thudng khongi
dugc ket qua *hdna nhit r - u
^- w
nhauvechudSnay
^^^"'^"^^^^"^^
tao dieu kien thuan lai hoar
/ " ,
.
trudng kinh t6 tuy thudc v T j ''' ^'"^ ' 1
^ '0 muc p ng (Tsang

20

NGHIEN CO-U & TRAO Odl

* PGS. TS, Trwdng Dai hoc Kinh te r p u

Email: dinhthanh@ueh.edu.vn

P H A T T R I E N KINH TE
So 257, Thdng Ba nim 2012

Chang, 2010). Theo quan diem truyen thdng, khi

tang trudng kinh te thap hoac khu vuc tu khdng cd
dpng CO dau tir thi chinh phu can phai deo dudi
chinh sach tai khda hay chinh sach tien te de kich
thich nen kinh te va chap nhan phuong sach tai trg
ng. Eisner (1992) tranh luan neu dugc do ludng mdt
each chinh xac thi tham hut va ng cdng se kich thich
lao ddng, tieu diing, dau tu va tang trudng kinh te.
Eisner lac quan ve tham hut va ng cdng vdi quan
diem neu ti le ng cong/GDP dugc duy tri d muc sao
cho ng khdng dugc tang nhanh hon GDP Kormendi
& ctg (1983) phat hien su md rong ng cdng se day
manh tang trudng kinh te. Hg cho rang gia tang chi
tieu chinh phu se cai thien mdi trudng dau tu qudc
gia va cudi ciing la, tao ra hieu ung thu hut dau tu tu
nhan. Ddng tinh vdi quan diem nay, IMF (2007) cho
rang trong dieu kien nen kinh te hoat ddng dudi muc
tiem nang, mdt su gia tang tdng cau tir md rdng chi
tieu cdng se thuc day dau tu khu" TIC tu nhan.
Thic hai Id quan diem chen ldn. Tham hut va ng
cdng cang cao se lam giam tang trudng kinh te, do
gia tang lai suat va gay chen lan dau tu tu nhan. Ndi
khac di, khi nen kinh te d trong trang thai tang
trudng binh thudng hoac d tren khuynh hudng dai
han thi su gia tang ng cdng cd le gay bat lgi cho nen
kinh ii. Ng cdng ldn se tao ra ganh nang ng ma hau
^qua la lam giam hay tri hoan dau tu tu nhan. Trong
:inh the nay cac nha diu tu tu nhan cho rang tien ldi
l i u tu cua hg se bi nha nude danh thue cao de tra
' ig. Ngoai ra, ng cdng cao se gay ra hieu img nghich
iftdi vdi dn dinh kinh tk vT md, khdng khuyen khich
i-ac ddng chay vdn va gia tang dong co cho cac nha
it^-hinh tri duong quySn thuc hien "trd choi mao
' i8m", dan den biSn ddng ve chinh tri (Malone,
aninel W, 2010). Cho dii tdng dau tu khdng giam
ung hieu suit diu tu se giam vi nghi ngd hanh
ft^
l^ng cua Chinh phu khdng the giai quyet ganh nang
\^
-y nen cac nha diu tu mudn lua chpn dau tu ngan
ll'^in, rui ro thip hon la cac du an cd rui ro cao, dai
j:'\n (Serven, Luis. 1997). Khu vuc tu ciing phai doi
..;'at vdi cac gidi han tai trg, dac biet trong cac qudc
V a cd ti trgng ng cdng trong nude ldn va thi trudng
chinh khdng phat trien, lai suat tang va cac ngan
vng cd khuynh hudng thich dau tu vao trai-phieu
inh phu cd nii ro thap (Hanson, James A, 2007).
et Cl ,.
fon di lugng ng va keo theo la lai suat gia tang cd the
can trd tang trudng va dau tu bdi le phan tien tra

ng cong da tieu hda het phan ldn ngudn thu thue,

lam giam ngudn tai trg danh cho dau tu co sd ha
ting. Hameed, Ashraf & Chaudhary (2008) ki6m tra,
mdi quan he giua ng nude ngoai va tang trudng kinh
te cua Pakistan trong khoang thdi gian tir 1970
2003. Thdng qua phan tich ham san xuat, hp phat
hien ganh nang ng cdng gay hieu ung nghich den
hieu suat tang trudng kinh te trong ngan han lan dai
han.
Thif ba Id quan diem trung lap. Theo quan diem
cua trudng phai Ricardo (Barro, 1989), tham hut va
ng khdng cd bat ki tac ddng den tang Irudng kinh te
bdi vi su giam di thu nhap va tieu dimg trong tuong
lai se bii lai su gia tang chi tieu trong hien tai ciia
chinh phu.
Tir cac quan diem khac nhau dugc de cap, can
thiet phai nghien cuu mdi quan he phi tuyen tinh
giiia ng cdng va tang trudng kinh te. That vay, cd
nhieu nghien cuu thuc nghiem minh chung su tdn tai
quan he phi tuyln giira ng cdng va tang trudng
(Pattillo, 2002). Cac nghien ciiu gin day tap trung
vao xac dinh ngudng ng cdng. Ngudng ng cdng la
dilm ma tai dd bit ki tong ng ciia chinh phu thap
hon gia tri nay se cd hieu ung tich cue trong khi cao
hon se gay bat lgi ddi vdi tang trudng. Andrea F.
Presbitero (2010) tiln hanh nghien cim quan he giira
tong ng cdng va tang trudng d cac qudc gia dang
phat triln trong khoang thdi gian 1990 - 2007. Ket
qua cho thay ng cdng cd tac ddng am den tang
trudng neu nhu ngudng ng cdng tren 90% GDP.
Hieu ung phi tuyen tinh nay dugc giai thich them
bang cac yeu td chi tiel qudc gia la ng cdng lam gidi
han tang trudng d ca cac qudc gia cd chinh sach vi
md tot va the che dn dinh. Reinhart va
Rogoffof (2010) nghien cuu mdi quan he giua ng va
tang trudng ciia 44 qudc gia trong vong 2 the ky trd
lai day. Ket qua nghien cuu cho thay ngudng ng
cdng la 90% d ca cac qudc gia phat trien va dang
phat trien. Ddi vdi cac nude phat trien vdi ngudng
ng cdng tren 90%) thi tang trudng trung binh vao
khoang 2%, thap hon cac qudc gia cd mirc ng cdng
nhd hon 30% GDP. Dua tren dir lieu ciia 99 qudc gia
phat trien va dang phat trien tir nam 1980 - 2008,
Caner & ctg (2010) da thilt lap muc ngudng ng
cdng 77% va 64%) ddi vdi cac qudc gia dang phat
trien. Tsangyao Chang & Gengnan Chiang (2010)

NGHIEN ciru & TRAO OOl ^

<?

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

So 257, Thd ng Ba ndm 2012

ihirc nghiem bang md hinh hdi quy ngudng dc kham

pha hieu irng ngudng cua lur'GDP Icn GDP dfui
ngudi d cac nude OECD (Td chirc Hgp l:ic v;i Phai
trien kinh tc). Kcl qua la tdn lai mot gia Irj ngudng
ciia li le ng/GDP \;i pluin irng bill can xirng cii;i GDP
dau ngudi ddi vdi he sd iio/(inP Irong c;ic nude
OECD. Gia tri ngudng ciia he sd ng cdng/CiDP la
(i6,6.W'o,

Nhieu bang chirng thuc ngliicm cho thay cd sy

tdn tai ngudng ng cdng. Nhung cau lioi dat ra la tai
sao ngudng ng cdng lai khac nhau bdi thu nhap qudc
gia. Ng cd the khac nhau a c;ic quoc gia thu nhap
thap bdi vi thi trudng lai chinh trong nude kem phat
trien; dp md thuang mai khac nhau (Frankcl &
Romer, 1999); \a the che khac nhau (Acemoglu,
2010). Mirc dp ng a nhieu qudc gia thu nhap thip
ciing cd the cd ham y khac nhau ddi vdi tang trudng
thdng qua kenh lam phat. Chinh phii cac nude nay
da phai vien den giai phap tien te hda ng edng thdng
qua ban trai phieu cho ngan hang trung uong. Nhieu
nghien cuu thuc nghiem da phat hien mdi quan he
giiia tham hut tai khda va lam phat d cac qudc gia
thu nhap thap nhung khdng xay ra d cac nen qudc
gia phat trien (Pattillo, Poirson, Ricci 2002).
Dya vao nghien cim Tsangyao Chang (2010) va
Caner (2010), md hinh thye nghiem ngudng ng edng
cua VN dugc thiet lap gdm bien phu thudc la tang
trudng kinh te (GDP), bien ddc
lap la ng edng/GDP, cac bien
kiem soat gdm lam phat va dp
md thuong mai. CJ VN, lam phat la bien dai dien cho
muc dp khdng chae chan cua nen kinh te va dp md
thuong mai cd y nghia rat ldn ddi vdi chinh sach
tang trudng kinh te trong vdng 20 nam qua. Nhu
vay, CO ban md hinh nghien ciru cd dang:
(1)

Trong dd, Y: GDP; X: ng cdng; Z: do md thuang

mai; va I: lam phat. Lay dao ham phuong trinh (1)
theo Y ngoai trir bien lam phat = I, ta cd phuong
trinh (2) nhu sau:
dY/Y = {dY/dX)dX/Y + {dY/dZ)dZ/Y+{dY/dl)dI/l (2)
Trong dd dYIdX la thira sd bien cua ng cdng;
dY/ dZXa. thira sd bien cua do md thuong mai;
dY I dl la thira sd bien cua lam phat. Ggi

22

NGHIEN Ciru & TRAO Ddl

= a^, dYldI=a

khic

ciic bicn trong phuang trinh (2) cd the giai thich:

dY/Y = GDP = ti trgng tang trudng hang nai
ciia Idng san pham qudc ngi;
dX/Y = A' = ng cong/GDP %;
dZ/Y= Z = long kim ngach xuat va nhap khi
(%/GDP) = dp md ciia nen kinh le;
dl/1 - ill/ = chi sd lam phat hang nam.

2.2 Md hinh nghien cieu

Y=f(X,Z.I)

dYldX = adYldZ

Sau khi dugc dicu chinh, phuang trinh (2) co th

vicl lai:

GDP, = a. A', + a2Z, + a^ inf,

(3)

Phirong trinh (3) la md hinh tang trudng kinh I

tuyen tinh truyen thdng. Cd the thay ddi md hinh na
thanh md hinh ty hdi quy ngudng (TAR: Threshol
autoregressive) hai che dp ciia Hansen (1996, 2000]
Cd the dien ta nhu sau:

Y, =P,,+P,,X,+p,JV,+e,

nlu X,<A

YI = A.O + A . , ^ , + A , 2 ^ +^, ;n^u^, > ^

(4)
(51

Trong dd, Y la bien phu thudc, phan anh lanj

trudng kinh le (GDP); X phan anh quy md ng c6n|
hay bien ngudng dugc dua vao nhu la bien doc la]
va tach mau thanh hai nhdm; H' la cac bien kien
soat (Z va Inf); A la gia tri nguong chua biet;^ li
he sd tuong quan. Dya vao Caner (2010), phuoni
trinh (4) va (5) viet thanh:

Trong dd, 1 phan anh ham chi sd, nhan gia tri
khi sy kien xay ra, neu khdng xay ra thi gia tri la C
De udc ngudng A tac gia udc lugng phuong Irinl
(6) de tim kiem tdng sai so () binh phuang nhi
nhat. Chan (1993) cho ring udc lugng binh phuonj
be nhat cua ngudng la rit thich hgp cho viec ua
lugng ngudng. Dieu quan trgng la xac lap tap hc^
tdi thieu cac quan sat d tren va d dudi gia ti
ngudng. Phuang phap nghien cuu dang ludi (gri
search method) dugc ap dung dl tim kilm gia t
nguong. Tdng sai sd binh phuong dugc dien ti
A

S^(A) = l(A)' ^(A). Gia tri nguong toi uu duo

lya ehgn dua vao tham sd udc lugng binh phuang b

P H A T T R I E N KINH TE
So 257, Thang Ba nam 2012

nhit vdi s = arg min 5", (A). Mdt khi gia hri ngudng
dugc xac dinh, gia thuylt Ho (khdng cd hieu ung
ngudng) phai dugc kilm tra. NIU H,,.. fin = ^21 (i
=0,1,2,3,4...) thi md hinh khdng cd hieu iing
ngudng va ngugc lai.
3. Phan tich thu'c nghiem va ket qua
nghien cufu
3.1. Thu thgp dUliiu
Trong md hinh, tac gia thu thap dii lieu hang nam
ve tang trudng kinh tl (GDP%), ng cong/GDP
(X%), dp md thuo-ng mai/GDP (Z%) va lam phat
(Inf %). Ngudn dii lieu ng cdng chii ylu dupe khai
thac tir IMF; dir lieu ciia cac bien cdn lai dugc iiy tir
Ngan hang Phat friln chau A (ABD); rieng du lieu
nam 2011 dua vao sd lieu cdng bd cua Tdng cue
Thdng ke VN vao cudi nam. Bang 1 mieu ta cac
bien udc lugng trong md hinh theo thdi gian.
Bang 1. DO* lieu trong mo hinh nghien cufu
DVT: 0/0

Nam

GDP%

X%

Z%

iNF%

1990

5,09

450,64

54,1

67,1

1991

5,81

350,74

54,3

67,5

1992

8,69

229,3

50,8

17,5

1993

8,08

174,6

49,4

5,2

1994

8,83

153,5

57,1

14,4

1995

9,53

111,1

61,4

12,7

1996

9,34

94,4

70,1

4,5

1997

8,15

76,1

73,1

3,6

1998

5,76

79,3

72,4

9,19

1999

4,76

75,8

77,1

0,1

2000

6,79

41,7

91,5

-0,6

2001

6,89

39,9

90,5

0,8

2002

7,08

40,8

98,3

2003

7,34

44,3

108,4

2004

7,79

43,4

121,5

9,4

2005

8,44

42,2

127,2

8,4

2006

8,23

39,5

135,3

6,7

2007

8,46

38

151,3

12,6

2008

6,31

43,9

151,7

25

2009

5,32

49

126,1

6,88

2010

6,7

56,6

152,55

11,75

2011

5,8

58,7

170

18,58

Luat quan li ng cdng nam 2009 cua VN da xac

dinh ng cdng bao gdm ng chinh phii, ng dugc Chinh
phu bao lanh va ng ciia chinh quyen dia phuang.
Nhu vay, cac khoan vay nhu vay vdn ODA, phat
hanh trai phieu chinh phu (trong va ngoai nude), trai
phieu cdng trinh dd thi, hay mdt tap doan kinh te vay
ng nude ngoai dugc Chinh phu bao lanh deu dugc
xem la ng cdng. Dii lieu chudi thdi gian cho thay ng
cdng ciia VN trong giai doan 1990 - 2011: miic ng
cao nhit la 450% GDP (1990), thip nhit 38%
(2007). Ng cdng trung binh ciia ca giai doan la
102% GDP va tang trudng binh quan 7,2% nam.
Trong nhiing nam dau thap nien 90, VN la mdt nude
ng ldn. Tdng ng nam 1990 tuong duong 450% GDP
cho thay sy khiing hoang ve kha nang thanh loan ng
cua VN. Tuy nhien, nhd kinh te tang trudng nhanh
nen tir nua sau thap nien 90, GDP da tang lien tuc
cdng vdi viec giam ng va xda ng ciia mdt sd nha tai
trg dac biet la Nga vdi nhiing khoan ng de lai tir thdi
Lien Xd cii nen tdng ng giam lien tuc. Neu nhu giai
doan 1990 - 1995, ng cdng d muc binh quan 244%
thi den giai doan 1996 - 2000, ng cdng giam xudng
cdn 73%; ng cdng giam keo theo mirc do tang
trudng kinh te giam, tu 7,6% xudng cdn 6,9%. Sau
cudc khung khoang tai chinh 1997, Chinh phii thye
thi chinh sach kich thich kinh te de kich cau trong
nude thdng qua cac giai phap gia tang tham hut ngan
sach va vay ng nham gia tang dau tu cdng de tai cau
tnic kinh te. Ket qua la, trong giai doan 2000 - 2005,
kinh te da dugc phuc hdi, tang trudng d miic 7,5%,
cao hon so vdi giai doan trudc. Nhd tang trudng cao,
Chinh phil kiem soat ng cdng d miic thap, binh quan
42% GDP. Cudc khung khoang 2008 xay ra, tham
hut ngan sach tang vgt dat miic ky luc trong vdng 20
nam qua, len din 7,7% GDP (2009). Dilu nay dan
din ng cdng tir 38% (2007) tang vgt len 58,7%
(2011). Tinh cho ca giai doan 2006 - 2011, ng cdng
binh quan khoang 47,6%, cao hon giai doan trudc
dd. Ng cdng tang trong khi tang trudng lai cd chilu
hudng giam xudng, binh quan 6,8% (Bing 2).

NGHIEN c d u & TRAO Ddl

23

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

So 257, Thang Ba nam 2012

Bang 2. Dien bien ncl cong va tang tru'dng

kinh te giai doan 1990 - 2011
Ng" cong

Tang tru'd'ng

Giai dogn (1990-1995)

244,98

7,6

Giai dogn (1996-2000)

73,46

6,9

Giai dogn (2001 - 2005)

42,12

7,5

Giai dogn (2006-2011)

47,6

6,8

Trung binh (1990-2011)

102

7,2

Cac giai do^n

Bang 3. Kiem tra tinh diTng cac bien

C^c bien

Thong ke t
(Augmented DickeyFuller test statistic)

Xac
suit

GDP

2,7

0,07

12

0,00

Nliin chung, kliao sat sa bd dii lieu giai doan

1990 - 2011, cho Ihay giira ng cdng va Uing Irudng
kinh tc cd dau hicu phi luycn. Tuy nhicn, can phai
thye hicn nghien ciru thye nghiem de khang djnh
chae chan hon.
3.2. Kiim tra die lieu
Trudc khi thye hicn kiem djnh, lac giii kicm Ira
tinh dirng ciia cac chudi thdi gian bdi 16 phuong
phap kiem djnh OLS khdng ap dung cho cac chudi
khdng dimg, mac khac la de loai trir tuong quan gia
mao. Ket qua cho thay cac chudi thdi gian GDP, X
va inf deu cd tinh dirng theo tieu chi thdng ke ADF
(Augmented Dickey-Fuller) lan lugt la 10%, 1% va
5%. Rieng chudi sd Z dimg d sai phan bac 1 vdi y
nghia thdng ke la !%>. Nhu vay, cac chudi sd Ihdi
gian GDP, X, dZ va inf se dugc sir dung de chay md
hinh hdi quy (Bang 3). Kiem tra tinh tuong quan
giiia hai bien GDP va Xbang bieu dd phan tan (Hinh
1), ta thay hai bien nay cd quan he rat yeu (he sd
tuong quan 0,19) va dii lieu bieu hien sy phan phdi
ngau nhien. Vdi dii lieu nhu vay, thye hicn udc
lugng ngudng bang md hinh phi tuyen tinh la thich
hgp. Trudc khi udc lugng md hinh, lac gia ung dung
kiem dinh nhan qua Granger giiia ng cdng va tang
trudng kinh te. Bang (4) cho thay ng cdng cd gay tac
ddng den tang trudng vdi y nghTa thdng ke 10% va
khdng cd chieu ngugc lai. Ket qua nay giup cho viec
khang djnh tinh dung dan hon trong lya ehgn cac
bien dgc lap va bien phu thudc trong md hinh.

24

N G H | N CCrU & TRAO odl

O/ODF*

DZ

-4.9

0,001

Inf

-3,6

0,012

Hinh 1. Mu'c dp phan tan cua GDP va ndcong

Bang 4. Kiem djnh nhan qua Granger nd cong
(X) va tang tru'dng kinh te (GDP)
Cac gia thuyet
Ng cdng khdng tac
dgng den GDP

So

Thong ke

quan sat

Xac suat

20

2,75983

0,0954

2,53568

0,1126

GDP khdng tac dgng

den ng cdng

3.4 Kit qua thuc nghiem

Tac gia thye hien udc lugng phuomg hinh (6)
Iheo phuang phap OLS theo dl xuit ciia Chan
(1993). Bien ngudng A dugc tao ra trong gidi han
tir 38% (mirc ng cdng thip nhit - nam 2007) den
108% (muc hnng binh). Dl dat dugc myc lieu
nghien cuu, cdng viec udc lugng bit diu tir muc
ngudng 38% va sau dd nang din len 1%. Trong qua
trinh udc lugng, thdng so RSS dugc tinh toan. Muc
ngudng se cd RSS be nhit va gia tri p co y nghia
thong ke (Yasir AH Mubarik, 2005).

-7

P H A T T R I E N K I N H TE
So 257, Thdng Ba ndm 2012

Bang 5. l/dc lu'dng mo hinh ngu'dng nd cong

(Bien phu thuoc la GDP)
Cac
bien

Hdi quy tuyen1 tinh

NgiP&ng (A)< =75,8

Ngu-o-ng (A) >75,8

l-le so

Gia trj P

He so

Gia trj P

He so

Gia trj P

6,857976

0,0000

8,201051

0,0000

6,880463

0,0000

0,010107

0,1048

0,037642

0,0087

-0,014168

0,0191

DZ

0,040924

0,1913

0,041896

0,1429

0,191697

0,0447

INF

-0,056631

0,0891

0,008661

0,8458

-0,088020

0,0222

R'=0,2; RSS =29

R^=0,39; RSS = 22

R^=0,44; RSS1=20

Bang 6. Hieu ufng bien ngu'dng ( A )

(Bien phu thuoc la GDP)
Bien

H^ so

Loi tieu chuan

Gia trj t

Gia tri P

8,026250

0,385657

20,81188

0,0000

-0,086122

0,029555

-2,913967

0,0101

Bidn ngudng ( A )

2,737220

1,526103

1,793601

0,0918

DZ

0,040223

0,025670

1,566933

0,1367

INF

-0,010031

0,042550

-0,235745

0,8166

0,492461
Ket qua Bang 5 cho thay, vdi md hinh hdi quy
tuyen tinh, quan he giiia ng cdng va tang trudng
kinh te la khdng cd y nghia thdng ke d muc 10%.
Trong md hinh ngudng, ng cdng tac ddng duong len
tang trudng cd y nghia thdng ke \%. Ng cdng dugc
xac dinh d miic nguong 75,8%. Vugt qua miic
ngudng tac ddng cua ng cdng len tang trudng kinh te
la am. Cac he sd beta (fi) trong md hinh hdi quy
ngudng cd gia tri khac nhau. Dieu nay cho thay gia
thuyet Ho bi bac bd. Nghia la md hinh cd hieu iing
ngudng. Bang 6 cho thay hieu iing ngudng trong md
hinh cd y nghia thdng ke 10%.
4 . Ket luan va gd'i y chinh sach

- Muc tieu cua cdng trinh la tap trung vao nghien

Cliu mdi quan he phi tuyen giiia ng cdng va tang
trudng kinh te d VN bang udc lugng md huih
ngudng. Md hinh nguong Hansen (2000) dugc ap
dung de thuc hien udc lugng gia tri nguang ng cdng
d VN. Trong pham vi dii lieu hang nam cua cac bien
GDP, X, Z va m/trong khoang thdi gian 1990 -

2011, ket qua udc lugng cho thay, ngudng ng cdng

cua VN dugc xac dinh la 75,8% vdi y nghTa thdng
ke 10%. Vugt qua dinh miic ngudng 75,8%, tac
ddng ng cdng den tang trudng la am. Y tudng nay la
tuong ddi thdng nhat vdi nghien cuu dugc thye hien
bdi Reinhart & Rogoffof (2010); Caner & ctg
(2010); Tsangyao Chang & Gengnan Chiang (2010)
vdi de xuat ngudng ng trong gidi han 64% - 77%
cho cac qudc gia dang phat trien.
- Tam quan trgng cua viec phat hien ngudng ng
cdng khdng ham y rang Chinh phii nen hudng thiet
lap ng cdng d miic nay. Ngugc lai, bdi vi Chinh phu
khdng bao gid nhan biet khi nao mdt cii sdc bat
thudng xay ra ddi vdi ng cdng, dieu khdn ngoan la
nen giir ng cdng thap hon miic ngudng nay. Ndi
khac di, phat hien ngudng ng cdng giiip cho Chmh
phii tap trung kiem soat tinh ben viing cua ng tot
hon.
Miy nam gin day, ng cdng ciia VN tang nhanh
trong bdi canh Chinh phii hien khdng kilm soat tdt
tham hut ngan sach. Dieu nay vi pham mdt nguyen

NGHIEN ciru & TRAO OOl

25

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE

So 257, Thdng Ba ndm 2012

tac CO ban cua quan ii ng cdng bC-n virng, do la ng

cdng hien lai phai dugc l;ii Irg bang ihang du ngan
sach Irong luang lai. Day la nguyen nhan chinh
khiC-n Fitch giani \cp hang lin dung dai han ciia VN
lir BB- xudng B+) \;u) cudi thang 7/2010. Vdi nhu
cau liep tuc gia lang dau lu dc phat trien, chae chan
ng cdng ciia \'N sc liep luc gia lang Irong thdi gian
tdi. Toe L\O tang Iruong GDP cao la dicu kicn can de
tang ngudn lhu \a dat thang du ngim sach. Tuy
nliicMi. d VN tang truong GDP chii yeu do lang vc
lugng dau tu ma khdng di kem vdi tiing hicu qua,
bang chiing la he so ICOR khdng ngirng lang Icn d
mirc 7 8 trong nam 2010. NCMI kinh tc hicn cd dau
hicu Uing trudng cham lai va von dau lu cung khdng
the tang len mai. Da den liic Chinh phu can tang

cirdng cai each the che, xay dyng chien luge ng

cdng Idl tren co sd xAc lap rd rang mirc do an toan,
ciu triic lai trg v^ Ira ng; cimg vdi dd la day manh
chuang Irinh tai cau true dau tu cdng va tai cau nen
kinh le cd hicu qua hon dl nang cao kha nang hap
lhu ng cdng cho lang trudng kinh te (Acemoglu &
clg, 2010).
Nhirng ham y chinh sach tir ket qua nghien cim
cd y nghia rai quan trgng cho viec hoach dinh chinh
Siieh ng cdng. Tuy nhicn, do sy gidi han ciia du lieu
nghien ciru cung nhu nhuTig dac thii ciia nen kinh le
trong qua trinh chuyen ddi, viec nghien cim them
trong tuong lai la can thict nham xac dinh rd rang
ban chit cac mdi quan he co ban khi he thdng dii
lieu tdt honB

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

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Marche, Electronic copy available at; http://ssrn.com/abstract=1804958.
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Growth in Pakistan" Intemational Research Joumal of Finance and Economics, ISSN 1450-2887, Issue 20.
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of Econometrics 93.
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NGHIEN CCPU & TRAO 0 6 l