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Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 7

Data Analysis

Fall Semester, 2016

Class: Tuesday, Thursday, 4:00-5:20, Frey Hall 100

Instructor: Stephen Finch

Office Hours: Wednesday: 3:30 pm to 4:30 pm, Thursday: 2:30 pm to 3:30 pm, and by

appointment. There will be extra office hours the week before each examination. These

will be announced on the class blackboard. My office is in the Mathematics Tower,

Room 1-113, phone: 631-632-8369. My e-mail is Stephen.Finch@stonybrook.edu.

Text: Ott, R.L., Longnecker, M. (2016). Statistical Methods and Data Analysis, latest

edition. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury. You will not suffer much of a loss if you get an

older edition or even a different text.

Scientific papers will be posted on the class blackboard. These papers provide case

studies and more detailed discussion and illustration of the application of statistical

techniques than your text or I can give. They are an important supplement to your studies.

You should study them to enhance your understanding of the applicability of the material

in the course.

Prerequisites

The prerequisite for this course is AMS 310 or equivalent. For example, a student

who has completed AMS 102, AMS 110 or PSY 201 and received a grade of B or better

should be reasonably well prepared for this course. Specifically, you should have some

knowledge of probability theory, a basic understanding of the central limit theorem, an

introduction to the single sample t-test, and an understanding of the concepts of testing

hypotheses and confidence intervals. I do expect that you have some familiarity with

computing and that you wish to expand your expertise to being able to work with

statistical computing packages.

Assignments

Past examination problems are in the study guides for each chapter that are posted on the

class blackboard. Past examinations may be posted as well. These may not have a

complete set of answers. There are no homework assignments. You may turn in your

solutions for comments from the TAs and me. The TAs will read your solutions and offer

suggestions and instruction. They are instructed not to solve the problem for you.

Because of the rampant sharing of homework solutions, homeworks will not be graded or

included in the grading process.

Each student will be assigned at random to a group of three students. Each group will be

given two sets of problems that require the use of statistical computation programs. The

data in each project will be generated synthetically according to a model that differs for

each group. The models are selected because they occur commonly, as noted in the

scientific papers posted on the class blackboard. The first project will be to analyze two

different sets of synthetic data using single predictor linear regression. One part of this

problem will require students to merge two data files; this part focuses on data processing

issues. The second project will be to analyze synthetic data with multiple predictors and

to report the model that was used to generate the data. The model generating the data may

include non-linear predictors and two variable interactions of predictors. Each group will

submit a report in scientific paper format that is the basis of the evaluation of the group.

Each student in the group will earn the same number of points, provided that the other

students in the group include the student. The grade of a student who does not submit

computer projects will be severely impacted.

Examinations

There will be two in-class examinations (the first on Thursday, October 20 and the

second on Thursday, November 17) and a final examination on Monday, December 19,

from 2:15 pm until 5:00 pm in a room that will be announced later. Each examination

will be comprehensive. The second examination, however, will focus on Chapters 8, 11,

and 12. Example problems for examinations are in your chapter study guides posted on

the class blackboard. Old examinations will also be posted.

You may use an approved calculator in the examination provided that you permit

the proctor to inspect it and reset the memory during the examination. Your calculator

may not have wireless communication capability. For example, the Texas Instruments TI84 is permitted provided that its memory is cleared. The TI-89 and later versions are not

allowed. If your device has an operating system, I will consider it to be a computer, and

you may not use it in the examination. You may have one page of notes using standard

paper size (8.5 by 11 inches). You may write on the front and back, and the sheet must

have your name on it. There may not be any xeroxed material on this sheet. You must

turn it in with your examination. It will be returned to you with your graded examination

paper. The statistical tables and graphs that are needed to solve examination problems

will be provided with the examination. You should not write on the tables and graphs and

must return them at the end of the examination. You may not use or give any other

assistance during the examination.

Professor Arkin, the undergraduate program director in the Applied Mathematics

Department, is the only person who can authorize an incomplete grade for an upper

division AMS course. If Professor Arkin has not authorized an incomplete, absence from

the final may result in failure of this class. Once again, the dates of the examinations and

the anticipated coverages are:

1. Thursday, October 20, with target coverage from Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 11.

2. Thursday, November 17, will be comprehensive and cover Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,

11, and 12, but not Chapters 9 and 10.

3. Final: Monday, December 19, 2:15 pm-5:00 pm. It will be comprehensive and cover

Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. The grading of this examination will not be

"curved."

Make up examination

In the event that you miss one in-class examination, there will be one make up

examination given on Tuesday, December 13. It will be comprehensive. That is,

questions may come from Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12. The grading of

this examination will not be "curved." Students who miss both in-class examinations

are advised to withdraw from the class.

Since this class can be offered as part of the training requirements of the

Society of Actuaries, academic integrity issues are fundamental. Academic integrity

standards will be enforced to the best of our ability.

Grading

The target grade distribution is roughly 25% A, 30% B, and the remainder C or

lower. That is, the target course GPA is 2.75. Your final grade will be determined on the

basis of two components. One is your computer project component, which is the sum of

the scores received for the two projects. The second is the examination component, E,

which will be calculated by the formula E1 +E2 +EF. Each in-class examination will have

about 6 questions each worth about 40 points so that the examination is worth

approximately 240 points. The final examination will have about 13 problems and be

worth approximately 500 points. The final examination grade and make up examination

will not be "curved." That is, a score of about half of the available points will be a C

score. A performance with about two-thirds of the available points will be a B

performance. A performance with 88% of available points or more will be an A

performance.

If your group earns at least 50% of the maximum grade on both of your projects,

your performance on computer projects is satisfactory. If you have satisfactory work on

both computer reports, a strong performance on the final will be a major factor in my

final grading decision. That is, such a student who gets an A on the final gets an A on the

course; such a student who gets a B in the final gets at least a B in the course; and so on.

Lecture Schedule

This schedule is a rough guide to the pace of the lectures. In general, I will go through the

text as indicated. Please note that Chapters 11 and 12 are moved before Chapters 8 and 9

so that there is more time to work on the projects. Your standing assignment is to read the

material before lecture and identify difficulties that you want to have discussed further in

lecture and office hours. You also have a standing assignment to read a newspaper or

internet news source daily to identify stories that involve the use of statistics. If any class

is cancelled due to weather or other conditions, I will cover the material in the next

meeting. Examinations are fixed on the dates above. In the event of lost classes, you will

be responsible for all material covered in class up to the examination date.

There will be no review classes prior to the examinations. The class after each

in-class examination will be dedicated to explaining the solution to each problem on

the examination and the return of the examination. My advice to you is to place the

highest priority on attending these classes.

Tentative Lecture Schedule

Aug 30:

Sep 1:

Sep 6:

Sep 8:

Sep 13:

Sep 15:

Sep 20:

Sep 22:

Sep 27:

Sep 29:

Oct 4:

Oct 6:

Oct 11:

Oct 13:

Oct 18:

Chapter Four, Probability and Probability Distributions (simulation issues)

No class, Labor Day Break

Chapter Five, Inferences about Population Central Values

Chapter Five, Inferences about Population Central Values

Chapter Six, Inferences Comparing Two Population Central Values

Chapter Six, Inferences Comparing Two Population Central Values

Chapter Seven, Inferences about Population Variances

Chapter Eleven, Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter Eleven, Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter Eleven, Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter Eleven, Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter Eleven, Linear Regression and Correlation

Chapter Twelve, Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model

Chapter Twelve, Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model

Oct 20:

Oct 25:

Oct 27:

Nov 1:

Nov 3:

Nov 15:

Chapter Twelve, Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model

Chapter Twelve, Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model

Chapter Eight, Inferences about More than Two Population Central

Values

Chapter Eight, Inferences about More than Two Population Central

Values

Chapter Eight, Inferences about More than Two Population Central

Values

Chapter Nine, Multiple Comparisons

Nov 17:

Nov 22:

Nov 24:

Nov 29:

Dec 1:

Dec 6:

Dec 8:

Thanksgiving Recess, no class

Chapter Nine, Multiple Comparisons

Chapter Ten, Categorical Data

Chapter Ten, Categorical Data

Chapter Ten, Categorical Data

Dec 19:

Nov 8:

Nov 10:

There will be three examinations with a total with between 25 and 30 questions.

Approximately seven will be theoretically oriented, such as proving that the expected

value of the sample variance using a random sample is equal to the variance of the

sampled random variable. The final examination will be cumulative and focused on the

material taught in the course beyond the content of AMS 310.

Course Objectives

1. Review topics from the prerequisite course (AMS 310 or any one semester

college level introduction to statistics.

a. Basic probability distributions; i.e., binomial, Poisson, normal, and

exponential distributions (Chapter Four of text).

b. Probability calculations; e.g., probability of an event for a random variable

following one of the basic distributions, use of Bayes Theorem, finding

expected value and variance of a random variable (Chapter Four of text).

c. Vocabulary of statistical procedures; e.g., confidence intervals, tests of

hypotheses, Type I and Type II error rates (Chapter Five of text).

d. One sample Student t procedures (Chapter Five of text).

2. Extend knowledge of probability theory.

a. Central chi-square and central F-distributions (Chapter Seven of text).

b. Bonferronis inequality applied to multiple test of hypotheses (Chapter

Nine of text).

c. Logic of multiple comparison procedures (Chapter Nine of text).

d. Decomposing chi-square sums of squares (Chapter Nine of text).

e. Expected value and variance of multiple linear combinations of random

variables (Chapter Eleven of text).

3. Learn intermediate level statistical procedures.

a. Two sample tests and confidence intervals (Chapter Six of text).

b. Tests and confidence intervals for the variance of a normally distributed

random variable (Chapter Seven of text).

c. Tests comparing the variances of two independent normal random

variables (Chapter Seven of text).

d. Tests and confidence intervals for the one way analysis of variance

(Chapters Eight and Nine of text).

e. Statistical procedures for multiple comparisons (Chapter Nine of text).

f. Categorical variable tests using the chi-squared distribution (Chapter Ten

of text).

g. One predictor linear regression (Chapter Eleven of text).

h. Multiple predictor linear regression (Chapters Twelve and Thirteen of

text).

4. Review scientific studies that use the techniques of the course and introduce the

basic ethical principles governing scientific research.

b. Reference to papers as techniques studied in lecture.

5. Learn the statistical computing package of the students choice and apply it to

obtain the statistical model that generated a set of synthetic data.

a. One predictor linear regression group project using synthetic data that

requires students to merge separate files.

b. Multiple predictor linear regression group project using synthetic data to

recreate statistical model that generated the data. Model includes nonlinear predictors and interactions of two predictors.

Method of Evaluating Each Objective

1. Review of prerequisite material: three or four examination questions.

2. Extend knowledge of probability theory: approximately five examination

questions.

3. Learn intermediate statistical procedures: approximately 15 questions.

4. Review of scientific studies: no explicit evaluation.

5. Learn and use statistical computing package: two group reports.

Mandated University Statements

The following statements are mandatory in each undergraduate syllabus. In the

event that I have omitted a mandatory university statement, the requirements of that

statement will apply to this course.

Academic Integrity Syllabus Statement

The following paragraph must be included in the syllabus of any undergraduate course.

Each student must pursue his or her academic goals honestly and be personally

accountable for all submitted work. Representing another persons work as your own is

always wrong. Any suspected instance of academic dishonesty will be reported to the

appropriate academic review board. For more comprehensive information on academic

integrity, including categories of academic dishonesty, please refer to the academic

judiciary website at http://www.stonybrook.edu/uaa/academicjudiciary/

The following statement is inserted in this syllabus as part of official University

policy:

If you have a physical, psychiatric/emotional, medical or learning disability that

may impact on your ability to carry out assigned course work, I would urge that you

contact the staff in the Disability Support Services office (DSS). Disability Support

Services is located in the Educational Computing Center (ECC) building, location D5 on

the campus map. Their phone number is 632-6748/9. DSS will review your concerns and

determine, with you, what accommodations are necessary and appropriate. All

information and documentation of disability is confidential.

I will follow DSS recommendations with regard to any students situation.

Critical Incident Management:

Stony Brook University expects students to respect the rights, privileges, and

property of other people. Faculty are required to report to the Office of Judicial Affairs

any disruptive behavior that interrupts their ability to teach, compromises the safety of

the learning environment, or inhibits students ability to learn.

Electronic Communication Statement

Email and especially email sent via Blackboard (http://blackboard.stonybrook.edu) are

ways the TAs and I officially communicate with you for this course. It is your

responsibility to make sure that you read your email in your official University email

account. For most students that is Google Apps for Education

(http://www.stonybrook.edu/mycloud), but you may verify your official Electronic Post

Office (EPO) address at http://it.stonybrook.edu/help/kb/checking-or-changing-yourmail-forwarding-address-in-the-epo. If you choose to forward your official University

email to another off-campus account, the TAs and I are not responsible for any

undeliverable messages to your alternative personal accounts. You can set up Google

Mail forwarding using these DoIT-provided instructions found

at http://it.stonybrook.edu/help/kb/setting-up-mail-forwarding-in-google-mail. If you

need technical assistance, please contact Client Support at (631) 6329800 orsupportteam@stonybrook.edu.

End of Syllabus for AMS 315, Fall Semester, 2016

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