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INTRODUCTION
Published online: 02 May 2014.

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To cite this article: (2014) INTRODUCTION, Adelphi Series, 54:444, 11-14
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19445571.2014.914669

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introduction

In Asia, as elsewhere in the world, the strategic position of the

United States rests ultimately on its ability to project power
over great distances. This unique capacity enables the US to
extend security guarantees to its allies, who in turn provide it
with local bases and facilities. Despite ongoing improvements
in the technologies of communication and transportation, these
remain essential to the task of sustaining US forces thousands
of miles from home. The ability of the US to project military
power and its global alliance system are thus mutually reinforcing.
For a time, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, US
power-projection capabilities were essentially unchallenged.
American decision-makers could deploy and operate their air
and naval units at will virtually anywhere in the world, including along the eastern periphery of Eurasia. Despite post-Cold
War cutbacks, the US nuclear arsenal remained vast and continued to provide a credible backstop to its forward-deployed
conventional forces. Washington was thus well situated to
deter or defeat attacks or attempts at coercion directed at its
local friends and allies, to defend vital sea lanes and, if neces-

12 | Beyond AirSea Battle: The Debate Over US Military Strategy in Asia

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sary, to bring coercive pressure of its own to bear on potentially

hostile powers.
American superiority was on display during 199596 when,
following Chinese missile tests aimed at influencing the results
of Taiwans first free presidential elections, the Clinton administration dispatched two carrier battle groups to waters off the
island. In retrospect, this incident appears to have marked an
inflection point in Chinas military development and in the
Sino-American strategic relationship. At the time, it seemed
painfully obvious that the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)
had no viable options to offer in response. In the aftermath of
the crisis, however, Beijing began to ramp up military spending and, in particular, its investments in capabilities designed
to deter, slow and, perhaps eventually, defeat US attempts
to project power into and across the Western Pacific. While
these actions were motivated in the first instance by the desire
to find solutions to a pressing operational problem, from the
start, they had the potential to produce major strategic shifts.
If China could counter the United States conventional powerprojection capabilities and neutralise its extended nuclear
deterrent, it might some day be able to replace the US as the
preponderant player in the region.
Nearly two decades on, Beijings investments have begun
to bear fruit. Chinas ongoing military build-up, and especially
the expansion of its long-range nuclear forces and its development of so-called anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities,
poses a serious and growing threat to the American position in
East Asia, and to the security of other regional powers. Because
they challenge Washingtons ability, and perhaps its willingness, to project power in the region, the continuing growth of
these forces could call American security guarantees into question, weakening the alliances on which they rest and eventually
undermining the United States place as the preponderant

Introduction | 13

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Asia-Pacific power. Left unchecked, perceived shifts in the

regional military balance away from the US and its allies, and
towards China, could also raise the risks of miscalculation and
deterrence failure.
Although the essential nature of this challenge has been
evident since the latter part of the 1990s, for a variety of
reasons the US armed forces, the Department of Defense and
the government as a whole have been slow to formulate a
coherent response. Substantial residual advantages in many
areas of military capability, combined with an initial underestimation of the extent, seriousness and significance of the
Peoples Republic of Chinas (PRC) build-up, made this task
seem less pressing for a time. High-impact, unanticipated
events have twice conspired to deflect attention and resources
from the problem. If not for the 9/11 terror attacks (and the two
major wars that followed in their wake) and the 2008 financial crisis, the US would no doubt have made further progress
in responding to Chinas initiatives than it has today. Last but
not least, the unusual, mixed character of the Sino-American
relationship, and the hope that it will evolve naturally towards
ever-higher levels of stability and cooperation, has also helped
to mitigate Washingtons competitive reflexes.
Despite all this, in the last few years, the continuing momentum of Chinas development and procurement programmes,
its growing assertiveness towards its neighbours and the
likelihood of persistent downward pressures on US defence
spending have combined to concentrate the minds of American
strategists. After a decade of emphasising counter-insurgency
and counter-terrorism operations, finding a credible response
to Chinas A2/AD capabilities has emerged as the central task
confronting military planners, and it is likely to remain so for
some time to come. Addressing this problem would not have
been easy in any event, and tight fiscal constraints will make it

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14 | Beyond AirSea Battle: The Debate Over US Military Strategy in Asia

even more difficult, but doing so has become an urgent necessity.

Much is at stake in the current debate over the future of US
military strategy in Asia. A fully thought-through and articulated strategy is essential if decision-makers are to rationally
reshape the plans and programmes of the armed services in an
era of stringency and equally important win the domestic
support necessary to fund them. A serious, sustained effort to
slow the increasingly evident erosion in the regional balance
of power is needed to give substance to recent talk of a pivot
towards Asia and to help persuade the United States regional
allies to step up their own contributions to this collective
undertaking. Finally, while there are no guarantees, a credible
strategy and a force posture to back it up provide the best hope
of deterring aggression and keeping the peace.