Speculation Scenarios

Period 4
American History
Scenarios:
1. What if the South had more northern military support?
2. What if Lincoln had died earlier in the war?
3. What if the South had won the battle of Vicksburg and more border states switched sides?

Scenario 1:
What if the South had more northern military support?

If the Confederacy were to receive enough support from the northern states, militarily, it would be easy to assume that they
would have won the civil war. This would likely be the outcome, assuming that the forces would be come nearly equal in
numbers, or possibly with the South outweighing the North. Even without having more soldiers, this would still nudge the
Confederacy closer to winning, because it would be safe to say that their forces would be more aggressive, due to what they
were fighting for: property. Eventually, after killing off the first few troops of soldiers, they may even have moved into
the Total War protocol and destroyed everything in sight until the Union gives in. As soon as defeat became inevitable,
Lincoln would likely have to formally surrender and the United States would never had truly become united. From here,
there would likely be a more passive fight against slavery, but nothing warlike until many years later.
In the postwar era of slavery, it would be likely that some states would have, civilly, voted to become a slave state or nonslave state from time to time. This could also have lead to the Union and Confederacy trading their states from time to
time. It could also be likely that the Union would have tried to buy out the Confederacy states, having them become free
ones, as a passive move to end slavery. Though, this may not have been as easy, as seen from previous attempts to buy
slaves into freedom by Lincoln during the war.

Scenario 2:
What if Lincoln had died earlier in the war?

With the loss of their leader, many troop and commanders would likely have pushed harder to win the war. Any leader
taking his place probably wouldn't have pushed as hard for the freedom of slaves as they would've for simply winning the
war. Without the African American troops, the Union would have less people in their command, making it that much easier
for the South to beat them. There's also reason to believe that the Northern forces wouldn't actually have fought as hard as
they could've. This aspect of the question would vary on how long Lincoln was actually around. As the war went on and his
term further progressed, it's clear that military leaders, troops and citizens actually did have some bond with him. If there
wasn't enough time to form this bond or love for the current President, then the actions of the Union likely wouldn't be as
drastic or effective as they could've been.
Ultimately, if Lincoln was taken out early enough, slavery would've remained for a longer amount of time, if it were to end
at all. On top of that, the South would have remained aggressive enough to fight off all attacks and protect their land and
property. As with my first conclusion, the war would become passive, with attempts to end things civilly. The only
difference here would be that there wouldn't be as much of a drive to end slavery. This in itself would most likely have lead
to more slave states, due to the fact that the war would've never became focused on slavery.

Scenario 3:
What if the South had won the battle of Vicksburg and more border states switched sides?

If the South won Vicksburg, they likely would have gained control of the Mississippi river at some point. This would've
removed their restrictions on resources, turning things slightly more into their favor. At this point, if they were also gaining
more and more states on their side, they would've eventually been able to cut down the Unions forces until they
outnumbered them. This pretty much leads back into the first scenario about the South having more support from the North.
Sooner or later they would outnumber and overpower the North, leading themselves to victory and a more passive fight to
end slavery.
Until he died, there would be no doubt that Lincoln would still put forth much effort in fighting to abolish slavery. He would
still attempt to pay off slave owners and negotiate with the South on the premise that he just wanted to free the slaves. In
fact, if the war ended this way, I don't think that Lincoln would've even had to be assassinated. He would've served a full
term, like most other Presidents. With that, he may have ended up waiting until he gained more troops, just to jump back
into the fight for freedom and unity.