13-18.

40, 2 9, 3

40 40
) P(Z 0) 0.50
3
40 40
b. P(X 40) P(Z
) = P(Z 0)
3
1 0.50 0.50
46 40
c. P(X 46) P(Z
) P(Z 2) 0.97725
3
P(X 40) P(Z

a.

d. P(X 46) P(Z 2) 1 0.97725 0.02275

e. P(X Due Date) 0.90 For a probability of 0.90,
z 1.28.
X 40
1.28
3
X 40 1.28(3) 43.84.
Thus, the due date should be 43.84 weeks
13.19.
A
0
0

Start

10
10
10

D 20
10 30
10 30

B 7.2
0 7.2
22.8 30

C 3.2
0 3.2
19.8 23

F
30
30

10
40
40

H
40
40

E 7
3.2 10.2
23 30

G 7.3
30 37.3
47.7 55

K
62
62

I
11.2
40 51.2
50.8 62
15
55
55

J
55
55

6.7
68.7
68.7

7
62
62
L
2.2
55 57.2
66.5 68.7

Finish

Activity

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L

8
6
3
10
6
9
6
14
10
6
4
1

10
7
3
20
7
10
7
15
11
7
7
2

12
9
4
30
8
11
10
16
13
8
8
4

10.0
7.2
3.2
20.0
7.0
10.0
7.3
15.0
11.2
7.0
6.7
2.2

ES

EF

LS

LF

0.44
0.25
0.03
11.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
0.11
0.25
0.11
0.44
0.25

0
0
0
10.0
3.2
30.0
30.0
40.0
40.0
55.0
62.0
55.0

10.0
7.2
3.2
30.0
10.2
40.0
37.3
55.0
51.2
62.0
68.7
57.2

0
22.8
19.8
10.0
23.0
30.0
47.7
40.0
50.8
55.0
62.0
66.5

10.0
30.0
23.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
55.0
55.0
62.0
62.0
68.7
68.7

0
22.3
19.8
0
19.8
0
17.7
0
10.8
0
0
11.5

The critical path is ADFHJK. Project completion time is

68.7 days. Project variance is 0.44 11.11 0.11 0.11
0.11 0.44 12.32.

t 12.32 3.5
t 68.7
Probability of
P
finishing in 70 days

70 688.7
Z 3.5 0.644

Probability of
P
finishing in 80 days

8.7
80 68
Z 3.5 0.9994

Probability of

8.7
90 68
P Z
0.9999
3.5
finishing in 90 days

13-20. Assuming normal distribution for project completion time:

a.

17 21
P Z
P ( Z 2 ) 1 0.9772
2

0.0228

b.

20 21
P Z
P ( Z 0.5) 1 0.6915
2

0.3085

c.

23 21
P Z
P ( Z 1) 0.8413
2

d.

25 21
P Z
P ( Z 2 ) 0.9772
2

13-21.

Activity

Total
Budgeted
Cost

Percentage of
Completion

Value of
Work
Completed

Actual
Cost

Activity
Difference

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

$22,000
30,000
26,000
48,000
56,000
30,000
80,000
16,000

100
100
100
100
50
60
10
10

$22,000
30,000
26,000
48,000
28,000
18,000
8,000
1,600

$20,000
36,000
26,000
44,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
1,000

$2,000
6,000
0
4,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
600

After 8 weeks:
Value of work completed $181,600
Actual cost $172,000
Cost underrun $9,600
Using Table 13.6, $212,000 should have been spent using ES
times. Using Table 13.7, with LS times, $182,000 should have
been spent. Hence the project is behind schedule but there is a cost
underrun on the whole.
13.22.

Activity

ES

LS

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M

0
1
3
4
6
14
12
14
18
18
22
22
18

0
4
3
9
6
15
18
14
21
19
22
23
24

6
2
7
3
10
11
2
11
6
4
14
8
6

Using earliest starting times.

Total
Cost
($1,000s)

Cost
Per
Month

10
14
5
6
14
13
4
6
18
12
10
16
118
146

$1,667
7,000
714
2,000
1,400
1,182
2,000
545
3,000
3,000
714
2,000
3,000

13-22. a. Monthly budget using earliest starting times:

ACTIVITY
MONTH

Total

1667

1667

1667

7000

8667

1667

7000

8667

1667

714

1667

714

2000

4381

1667

714

2000

4381

714

2000

2381

1400

4114

714

1400

2114

714

1400

2114

10

714

1400

2114

11

1400

1400

12

1400

1400

13

1400

2000

3400

14

1400

2000

3400

15

1400

1182

545

3127

16

1400

1182

545

3127

17

1182

545

1727

18

1182

545

1727

19

1182

545

3000

3000

3000

10727

20

1182

545

3000

3000

3000

10727

21

1182

545

3000

3000

3000

10727

22

1182

545

3000

3000

3000

10727

23

1182

545

3000

714

2000

3000

10442

24

1182

545

3000

714

2000

3000

10442

25

1182

545

714

2000

4442

26

714

2000

2714

27

714

2000

2714

28

714

2000

2714

29

714

2000

2714

30

714

2000

2714

31

714

714

32

714

714

33

714

714

34

714

714

35

714

714

36

714

714

Total

10000

14000

5000

6000

14000

13000

4000

6000

18000

12000

10000

16000

18000 146000

b. Monthly budget using latest starting times:

ACTIVITY
MONTH

Total

1667

1667

1667

1667

1667

1667

1667

1667

1667

714

2381

7000

714

9381

7000

714

9381

714

1400

2114

714

1400

2114

714

1400

2114

10

714

2000

1400

4114

11

2000

1400

3400

12

2000

1400

3400

13

1400

1400

14

1400

1400

15

1400

16

1400

545

1945

1182

545

3127

17

1182

545

1727

18

1182

545

1727

19

1182

2000

545

3727

20

1182

2000

545

3000

6727

21

1182

545

3000

4727

22

1182

545

3000

3000

7727

23

1182

545

3000

3000

24

1182

545

3000

714

2000

25

1182

545

3000

714

2000

3000

10442

26

1182

3000

714

2000

3000

9896

3000

714

2000

3000

8714

28

714

2000

3000

5714

29

714

2000

3000

5714

30

714

2000

3000

5714

31

714

2000

32

714

714

33

714

714

34

714

714

35

714

714

36

714

714

27

Total

10000

14000

5000

6000

14000

13000

4000

6000

18000

12000

714

10000

8442

16000

7442

2714

18000 146000

Project completion time is 14. This project has to be crashed to 10.

This is done by the following linear programming formulation:

13-23.
A
0
0

C
2
2

2
2
2

2
4
4

E
4
4

Start

F
4
10

3
7
13

4
8
8

If Xi is the start time for activity i where i C, D, E, F, G,

and Finish, and Yj is the amount of time reduced for activity j,
where j A, B, C, D, E, F, G.
H
13
13

2
15
15

Minimize Z 600YA 700YB 0YC 75YD

Finish

50YE 1,000YF 250YG

subject to

B
0
1

3
3
4

D
3
4

4
7
8

G
8
8

5
13
13

YA 1
YB 1
YC 0

The critical path is ACEGH. Total time is 15 weeks.

YD 4

1. Activities A, C, and E all have minimum crash costs per week

of $1,000.
2. Reduce activity E by 1 week for a total cost of $1,000. There
are now two critical paths.
3. The total project completion time is now 14 weeks and the
new critical paths are BDGH and ACEGH.
4. Activities D and E have minimum crashing costs per week for
each critical path.
5. Reduce activities D and E by 1 week each for a total cost of
$3,000, including the reduction of E by 1 week.
6. The total project completion time is 13 weeks. There are two
critical paths: ACEGH and BDGH.

YE 3

13-24.

Start

A
0
0

3
3
3

D
3
3

7
10
10

B
0
2

2
2
4

E
2
4

6
8
10

C
0
11

1
1
12

F
1
12

2
3
14

G
10
10

4
14
14
Finish

Crash
Cost
per Week

Activity

1,000

1,600

$ 600

2,000

2,700

700

300

300

1,300

1,600

75

850

1,000

50

4,000

5,000

1,000

1,500

2,000

250

YF 1
YG 2
XFinish 10
XFinish XG YG 4

XD XA YA 3

XG XE YE 6

XFinish XF YF 2

XG XD YD 7

XF XC YC 1

XE XB YB 2

All Xi, Yj 0

13-25. The Bender Construction Co. problem is one involving

23 separate activities. These activities, their immediate predecessors, and time estimates were given in the problem. The rst results of the computer program are the expected time and variance
estimates for each activity. These data are shown in the following
table.
Activity

Time

Variance

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
4.17
2.17
5.00
2.17
3.83
1.17
20.67
2.00
1.17
0.14
0.30
1.17
2.00
5.00
0.12
0.14
3.33
0.12
0.17

0.444
0.111
0.111
0.111
0.028
0.250
0.111
0.250
0.028
0.028
1.778
0.111
0.028
0.000
0.001
0.028
0.111
0.444
0.000
0.000
0.444
0.000
0.001

Next, the computer determines the expected project length,

variance, and data for all activities. Like the other network problems, these data include the earliest start, earliest nish, latest
start, latest nish, and slack times for all activities. The data are
shown in the following table.
ACTIVITY TIME
Activity
SF
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

ES

EF

LS

LF

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.67
4.00
8.00
13.00
7.83
3.00
0.00
15.17
20.67
21.83
21.97
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.25
30.39
33.59

3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
7.83
6.17
13.00
15.17
11.67
4.17
20.67
17.17
21.83
21.97
22.27
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.39
33.59
30.51
33.77

9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
12.67
18.50
11.50
16.50
16.83
19.50
0.00
18.67
20.67
21.83
24.84
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
33.33
30.25
33.47
33.59

12.67
19.50
18.50
11.50
16.83
20.67
16.50
18.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
21.83
21.97
25.14
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
33.47
33.59
33.59
33.77

Slack
9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
9.00
14.50
3.50
3.50
9.00
16.50
0.00*
3.50
0.00*
0.00*
2.87
0.00*
0.00*
0.00*
0.00*
3.08
0.00*
3.08
0.00*

degree from their particular college or university. For every course,

students should list all the immediate predecessors. Then students
are asked to attempt to develop a network diagram that shows these
courses and their immediate predecessors or prerequisite courses.
This problem can also point out some of the limitations of the
use of PERT. As students try to solve this problem using the PERT
approach, they may run into several difculties. First, it is difcult
to incorporate a minimum or maximum number of courses that a
student can take during a given semester. In addition, it is difcult
to schedule elective courses. Some elective courses have prerequisites, while others may not. Even so, some of the overall approaches of network analysis can be helpful in terms of laying out
the courses that are required and their prerequisites.
Students can also be asked to think about other quantitative
techniques that can be used in solving this problem. One of the
most appropriate approaches would be to use linear programming
to incorporate many of the constraints, such as minimum and maximum number of credit hours per semester, that are difcult or impossible to incorporate in a PERT network.
13-27. a. This project management problem can be solved
using the PERT model discussed in the chapter. The results are
below. As you can see, the total project completion time is about
32 weeks. The critical path consists of Tasks 3, 8, 13, and 15.

Standard
Deviation
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

*Indicates critical path activity.

As you can see, the expected project length is about 34

weeks. The activities along the critical path are activities 11, 13,
14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, and 23.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

0.5
0.1667
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3333
0.5833
0.6667

20
2

10

22
15

Start

13
8

12

18

14

23

19
21

16

17

11

Figure for Problem 13-25: Activities for Bender Constructions

13-26. The overall purpose of Problem 13-26 is to have students

use a network approach in attempting to solve a problem that almost all students face. The rst step is for students to list all
courses that they must take, including possible electives, to get a

Standard
Deviation
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

0.35
0.5
0.6667
0.6667
0.25
0.1667
0.5
0.6667

Project completion time 32.05

Project standard deviation 1.003466
Early
Start

Activity time
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
7
3.9167
7.4667
10.3167
3.8333
4
4
5.9167
1.2333
6.8333
7

0
0
0
0
0
2.1667
3.5
11.8333
11.8333
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
19.3
15.6667
25.2167
16.9

Early
Finish

Late
Start

Late
Finish

Slack

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
9.1667
7.4167
19.3
22.15
15.6667
9.1667
7.8333
25.2167
16.9
32.05
23.9

10.1333
11.8833
0
14.65
15.9833
12.3
15.3833
11.8333
14.9
19.9833
19.8167
19.8167
19.3
23.8167
25.2167
25.05

12.3
15.3833
11.8333
19.8167
19.8167
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.2167
23.8167
23.8167
23.8167
25.2167
25.05
32.05
32.05

10.1333
11.8833
0
14.65
15.9833
10.1333
11.8833
0
3.0667
8.15
14.65
15.9833
0
8.15
0
8.15

Task time computations

Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Optimistic
Time

Most
Likely Time

Pessimistic
Time

Activity
Time

1
3
10
4
2
6
2
5
9.9
2
2
2
5
1
5
5

2
3.5
12
5
4
7
4
7.7
10
4
4
4
6
1.1
7
7

4
4
13
7
5
8
5.5
9
12
5
6
6
6.5
2
8
9

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
7
3.9167
7.4667
10.3167
3.8333
4
4
5.9167
1.2333
6.8333
7

13-27. b. As can be seen in the following analysis, the changes do not have any impact on the critical path or the total project completion
time. A summary of the analysis is below.
Project completion time 32.05
Project standard deviation 1.003466

Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Activity Time

Early
Start

Early
Finish

Late
Start

Late
Finish

Slack

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
7
3.9167
7.4667
0
0
4
4
5.9167
1.2333
6.8333
7

0
0
0
0
0
2.1667
3.5
11.8333
11.8333
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
19.3
11.8333
25.2167
13.0667

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
9.1667
7.4167
19.3
11.8333
11.8333
9.1667
7.8333
25.2167
13.0667
32.05
20.0667

10.1333
11.8833
0
14.65
15.9833
12.3
15.3833
11.8333
25.2167
23.8167
19.8167
19.8167
19.3
23.8167
25.2167
25.05

12.3
15.3833
11.8333
19.8167
19.8167
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.2167
23.8167
23.8167
23.8167
25.2167
25.05
32.05
32.05

10.1333
11.8833
0
14.65
15.9833
10.1333
11.8833
0
13.3833
11.9833
14.65
15.9833
0
11.9833
0
11.9833

Standard
Deviation
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Standard
Deviation

0.5
0.1667
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3333
0.5833
0.6667

Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

0
0
0.6667
0.6667
0.25
0.1667
0.5
0.6667

Task time computations

Optimistic
Most
Pessimistic Activity
Time
Likely Time
Time
Time
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task
Task

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

1
3
10
4
2
6
2
5
0
0
2
2
5
1
5
5

2
3.5
12
5
4
7
4
7.7
0
0
4
4
6
1.1
7
7

4
4
13
7
5
8
5.5
9
0
0
6
6
6.5
2
8
9

2.1667
3.5
11.8333
5.1667
3.8333
7
3.9167
7.4667
0
0
4
4
5.9167
1.2333
6.8333
7