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PUBLICATIONS Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER 10.1002/2014GL061848 Key Points: • Global historic changes of
PUBLICATIONS Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER 10.1002/2014GL061848 Key Points: • Global historic changes of

RESEARCH LETTER

Key Points:

Global historic changes of water on land are quantied and visualized

In 74% of the basins water change explanation requires landscape drivers

Landscape-driven effects are mostly in opposite direction to climate-driven effects

Supporting Information:

Readme

Text S1, Figures S1S3, and Tables S1-a and S1-b

Correspondence to:

F. Jaramillo, fernando.jaramillo@natgeo.su.se

Developing water change spectra and distinguishing change drivers worldwide

Fernando Jaramillo 1,2 and Georgia Destouni 1,2

1 Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, 2 Bolin Centre for

Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract The separate and combined effects of different drivers of change to water uxes and resources on land (CWOL) remain difcult to distinguish and largely unknown, particularly at a global scale. Our study analyzes CWOL during the period 19012008, based on available hydroclimatic data for up to 859 hydrological

basins. We develop a worldwide spectrum of change magnitudes and directions in Budyko space, from which

we distinguish climate and landscape drivers of CWOL. We nd that landscape drivers (e.g., changes in land and water use, water storage or water phase) are needed to explain CWOL in at least 74% of the basins studied. The water change effects of such landscape drivers are mostly opposite to those of atmospheric climate change. The change spectrum approach we developed provides a useful tool for quantifying and visualizing CWOL and for distinguishing the effects of climate and landscape drivers across regions and scales.

Citation:

Jaramillo, F., and G. Destouni (2014), Developing water change spectra and distinguishing change drivers world- wide, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 41 , 8377 8386,

doi:10.1002/2014GL061848.

Received 22 SEP 2014 Accepted 14 NOV 2014 Accepted article online 18 NOV 2014 Published online 5 DEC 2014

1. Introduction

Precipitation acts as a main source of available freshwater for all living organisms. Yet the same amount of precipitation may partition differently into runoff , actual evapotranspiration (AET), and water storage changes in a catchment, depending on the prevaili ng climate and landscape conditions. Changes in both atmospheric climate and la ndscape water conditions may thus alter water partitioning in a catchment (Figure 1).

Atmospheric climate changes that directly affect water partitioning mainly include changes in precipitation (main input ux of water to the catchment) and surface air temperature, which in turn determine AET (key output ux of water from the catchment) [ Kundzewicz et al., 2008; Montanari et al. , 2013; Stocker et al., 2013]. Landscape changes that also affect water partitioning include changes in: (1) human land use, such as deforestation [ Gordon et al., 2005] or agricultural expansion [ Jaramillo et al. , 2013], (2) human water use, such as increased or spatially shifted amounts of water used for irrigation or hydropower [Douglas et al. , 2006; Asokan et al., 2010; Destouni et al., 2013], and (3) water storage or water phase conditions in the landscape. This last factor can result from human activity, e.g., through groundwater depletion [Konikow , 2011] and the inter-catchment diversion of water [Dynesius and Nilsson , 1994], or from landscape responses to climate change, e.g., melting glaciers [ Haeberli and Beniston , 1998] or thawing permafrost [ Karlsson et al., 2012].

AET in particular is a key water ux that links atmospheric climate change with changes to water on land (CWOL), and is modeled differently depending on whe ther the change is studied from the atmosphere or from the landscape [ Jung et al., 2010]. From an atmospheric perspective, global estimates of AET changes are usually derived from models linking atmospheric water and energy availability. From a landscape perspective, global estimates of AET changes have been mostly based on spatiotemporal extrapolation of local AET rates for speci c land covers [ Gordon et al. , 2005; Sterling et al. , 2013]. Recent regional studies, however, have instead directly quanti ed temporal changes in AET from both perspectives using the physical constraints of catchment-wide water balance [ Tomer and Schilling , 2009; Destouni et al. , 2013; Jaramillo et al. , 2013; Baahmed et al., 2014; Renner et al. , 2014] or more detailed hydrological modeling [ Wang and Hejazi , 2011]. By comparing AET calculated from a catchment s water balance (AET A ) with purely climate-related theoretical estimates of AET based mainly on precipitation and surface air temperature data (EET), these studies nd a difference between AET A and EET, indicating a possible signi cant landscape-driven component of AET.

A gap therefore exists between the methods used to assess AET changes globally (spatial assessment) and locally-regionally (direct temporal time series analysis). This gap implies that dominant drivers of CWOL, and

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 1. Changes to water on land (CWOL) (dark blue arrows) and
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 1. Changes to water on land (CWOL) (dark blue arrows) and
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 1. Changes to water on land (CWOL) (dark blue arrows) and
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 1. Changes to water on land (CWOL) (dark blue arrows) and

Figure 1. Changes to water on land (CWOL) (dark blue arrows) and their possible drivers in the atmosphere (light blue, red and yellow) and the landscape (green).

particularly the distinction between atmospheric and landscape drivers, remain largely unknown at the global scale. Yet such a distinction is important; control and mitigation of atmospheric climate drivers require global collaboration, for example, while landscape drivers can be controlled at local to regional scales. This study aims to distinguish the dominant change drivers by applying the direct temporal time series analysis method to a worldwide assessment of CWOL and AET changes in particular. To achieve this, we use hydroclimatic data series that are available for local to regional scales and aggregate them up to continental and global scales.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Key Area-Weighted Indicators of CWOL

We assess CWOL from the beginning of the twentieth century to the present time, considering in a base case changes between the 25 year periods 19301954 and 19551979. These periods are symmetrical around the midpoint of the longest period with available monthly gridded data sets of precipitation (P) and surface air temperature (T) during the twentieth century until the present time (19012008) [Harris et al., 2014]. They also contain uninterrupted complete runoff (R) data for 504 hydrological basins from the Global Runoff Data Centre [GRDC, 2013] with available basin-delineation and with areas larger than 1000 km 2 . We then consider R data for a year to be complete when monthly data are available for all 12 months of the year or for at least 98% of the days in the case of daily R data. For years with 98% to 100% availability of daily R data, we complete the time series to full year coverage by linear interpolation.

We represent direct climate-driven CWOL for each basin in terms of the change Δ (EET/P) in mean climate- determined evaporative index (EET/P) between the two comparison periods. Mean EET/P for each period is estimated from ve independent quanti cations of EET, as given by Schreiber [1904], Ol dekop [1911], Budyko [1948], Turc [1954], Pike [1964], and Zhang et al. [2001], in terms of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and P (see Supporting Information). Here, P is th e mean value of basic gridded precipitation data (P o ) [ Harris et al. , 2014] and gridded precipitation corrected for wind-induced undercatch and wetting losses (P c ) [ Adam and Lettenmaier, 2003]. Calculations using either P o or P c in each method further provide a total of 10 estimates of EET/P for each period, the range of which is used for uncertainty assessment for the quanti cation of Δ (EET/P) (see Supporting Information).

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For each basin, total CWOL resulting from both climate and landscape change drivers is represented by the change Δ (AET A /P) of a water-balance constrained estimate of total evapotranspiration AET A = P R relative to P (where P is again the mean of P o and P c ). The AET A estimate quanti es an apparent evapotranspiration, which may differ from actual AET by also including a component of non-zero water storage change Δ S, i.e., AET A = AET + ΔS with possible Δ S 0. A possible non-zero ΔS that is implicitly accounted for in AET A may be important for long-term changes in basin-scale water storage; it may therefore be accounted for within the

landscape-driven AET component (LET) and associated change Δ (LET/P), with the latter calculated as the residual

Δ

LET

P

¼ Δ

AET A

P

Δ

EET

P

(1)

Equation (1) is strictly valid only when no signicant climate-driven change is present in intra-annual precipitation variability, since this may also directly affect annual AET [ Zanardo et al., 2012], with the related change component then being climate-driven, but without changing annual P. For example, shorter but more intensive rain events between prolonged drought periods may decrease annual AET without affecting annual P. As an indicative measure of change in intra-annual precipitation variability, we calculate the change in the mean annual coefcient of monthly variation of P (ΔCV P ) between the two comparison periods and test its statistical signi cance ( p < 0.05) with a two-sided t test. As a result of this testing, 43 basins with signicant ΔCV P are removed from the initial selection, since precipitation variability rather than landscape change might here have driven the calculated Δ(LET/P). This leaves us with 50543 = 462 basins for further analysis; see Supporting Table S1a.

Finally, in order to quantify CWOL at continental and global scales, we selected the basins with available hydroclimatic data covering the largest possible land area without any basin overlap (154 of total remaining 462 nested basins). We calculated the area-weighted mean of change indicators Δ (EET/P) and Δ (LET/P), estimates that are spatially comparable to those from large-scale climate and earth system modeling.

2.2. Worldwide Spectra for Indicators of CWOL

To maximize the statistical basis and geographical representation of basins included in a worldwide analysis of CWOL, while still maintaining a climatically reasonable length of comparison time periods, we also analyzed changes between periods with at least 20 years of complete R, P, and T data within each of the total comparison periods 19011954 and 1955 2008. Without the restrictive requirement of full data availability for all years in the 25 year periods used in section 2.1, estimates of Δ(EET/P), Δ (AET A /P), and Δ (LET/P) can be assessed and compared across all of 735 basins (after removing 125 basins with signicant ΔCV P ; see Supporting Table S1b). Importantly, this requirement relaxation increases the number of basins in regions with limited availability of longer-term hydroclimatic data, such as Africa and South America.

To capture and illustrate both the magnitude and the direction of CWOL, and thereby better distinguish climate- and landscape-driven changes across different parts of the world, we depicted and summarized

CWOL results in Budyko [1974] space. This is a conceptualization space that relates AET A /P to PET/P to link the main physical principles of water and energy availability governing water balance at the basin scale. We represented the total CWOL movement (resulting from both climate and landscape drivers) for each basin in

v with horizontal and vertical components, [ van der Velde et al ., 2014]

this space as a vector of total change

denoted as Δ (PET/P) and Δ (AET A /P), respectively (see Supporting Figure S1). We further calculated its magnitude (m) and direction (θ ; in degrees and clockwise from the positive y axis) as ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi

(2)

AET

¼

s

Δ

v

A

2

þ

Δ

PET

P

2

m

¼

P

θ ¼ b arctan

"

Δ

AET

P

Δ

PET

P

#

A

(3)

where b = 90° when Δ (PET/P) > 0 and b = 270° when Δ (PET/P) < 0. By analogy, we also derived the

v and calculated its magnitude (m c ) and direction ( θ c ) by

replacing Δ (AET A /P) with Δ (EET/P) in equations (2) and (3). So θ c is now the theoretically possible direction of climate-driven change based on a basins PET/P value.

corresponding vector of climate-driven change

c

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 2. Area-weighted changes in relative evapotranspiration

Figure 2. Area-weighted changes in relative evapotranspiration between 19391954 and 19551979. Changes in mean (a) climate-driven evaporative index, Δ (EET/ P), and (b) landscape-driven evaporative index, Δ(LET/P) in the 154 basins covering the largest possible land area without any basin overlap.

The combination of m and θ describes the change in hydroclimatic characteristics of any basin during a given period and provides an insight into the type of CWOL driver. For instance, basins that move in a north-east direction in Budyko space (0° < θ < 90°) have become warmer, with increased PET/P (see Supporting Figure S1). As expected from an atmospheric change perspective, the increased energy availability implied by increased PET/P increases here the fraction of P being partitioned into AET. However, basins that move in a south-east direction in Budyko space (90° < θ < 180°) have also become warmer, but here the fraction of P partitioned into AET decreases. Hence, a south-east directed movement in Budyko space is not explainable by climate alone, implying that movement in this range of directions (and by analogy also in the range 270° < θ < 360°) must to some dominant degree also be driven by landscape changes.

For total CWOL, resulting total change vectors v for multiple basins are grouped and visualized in continental- and global-scale spectra, with a structure resembling that of typical wind roses. Similarly, all climate-driven change vectors v c are grouped in corresponding spectra for climate-driven CWOL. In each of these spectra, the range of all possible directions of change in Budyko space (0° to 360°) is divided in 15° interval-paddles, grouping and accounting for all basins with changes in each direction interval. In particular, the range of directions and magnitudes of climate-driven change vectors v c are then more limited than that of total change vectors v, with comparative visualization of both spectra facilitating direct identi cation of landscape-driven change in the direction intervals of total change vectors v that cannot be explained by the range of theoretically constrained directions of climate-driven change vectors v c . The fraction of basins exhibiting change directions (and magnitudes) that are not explainable as climate-driven is calculated and accounted for as representing the worldwide in uence of landscape drivers on CWOL.

3. Results and Discussion

An area-weighted quanti cation of climate-driven change Δ (EET/P) between the periods 19351954 and 1955 1979 shows a decrease in the climate-driven component of relative evapotranspiration across all continents and globally (Figure 2). By contrast, the direction of landscape-driven change Δ (LET/P) varies among continents and between hemispheres, as well as varies more than Δ (EET/P), relative to the mean global result, and among different model results for each region. Overall, Δ (LET/P) indicates landscape-driven increases that counteract corresponding climate-driven decreases in the world, Northern Hemisphere,

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 3. Water change between at least 20 year periods within and

Figure 3. Water change between at least 20 year periods within and from 19011954 to 19552008 for 735 basins. Changes in mean (a) water-balance constrained evaporative index, Δ(AET A /P), (b) corresponding climate-determined evaporative index, Δ(EET/P), and (c) landscape-driven evaporative index, Δ (LET/P).

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Europe, Asia, Oceania, and most likely in North America. However, in South America and Africa, landscape- driven decreases enhance corresponding climate-driven decreases. Previous ndings for individual basins with relatively well known development history [ Destouni et al. , 2013; Jaramillo et al. , 2013] or spatial

land cover-evapotranspiration relationships [ van der Velde et al., 2013] all indicate increases in LET/P that are likely associated with some combination of major agricultural and hydropower developments, whereas decreases in LET/P may be due to dominant deforestation effects or changes in water storage or water phase conditions in the landscape. An analysis of changes between periods of at least 20 years from 19011954 to 19552008 (for 735 basins with results illustrated in Figure 3) shows that Δ (LET/P) overshadows Δ(EET/P)

in basins with a relatively large absolute value of total change Δ

Mekong Basins in Asia, Saguenay Basin in North America, Paraiba do Sul and Rio Pomba Basins in South America, and several Scandinavian basins in Northern Europe (examples in Figure 3).

A Budyko space summary of mean AET A /P relative to PET/P during all years with available R data for 1901 2008 further shows a characteristic range of condition combinations for 70% of all investigated basins on each continent (Figure 4a). As exempli ed by curves for two EET estimation methods (dashed lines in Figure 4a), the range of possible climate-drive change direction θ c is for all methods either 45° < θ c < 90° or 225° < θ c < 270°, consistent with the range of possible change movement along the two method curves shown, and differences in climate-driven change direction θ c among all methods are then small. For each continent, the range of theoretically explainable directions of climate-driven change limits the extent of the continental climate-driven change spectrum, as seen in the exemplied cases of Oceania and Europe (Figure 4b-i), while the corresponding total change spectrum may extend over all directions (Figure 4b-ii). To some degree, however, the total change spectrum for each continent is determined by the continent s characteristic placement in Budyko space (Figure 4a). For instance, many basins in Oceania are water limited (with PET/P > 1); the total continental change spectrum then follows to a large degree the directions of climate-driven change, as there is relatively little water available for responding to additional, landscape drivers of change in these basins. By contrast, Europe exhibits mostly energy limited conditions (PET/P < 1) and therefore Δ (AET A /P) can reect more varied responses to climate- and landscape-driven change, with the total change spectrum of Europe indeed extending in most directions and differing considerably from its climate-driven spectrum. Figures S2a and S2b, respectively, show climate-driven and total change spectra for other continents.

Globally, the climate-driven change spectrum (Figure 5a) differs markedly from the total change spectrum (Figure 5b). This difference reects the inuence of landscape drivers, with most total change being in directions 90° < θ < 225° and 270° < θ < 45° and hence outside the range of theoretical climate-driven change directions θ c (green elds extending over 45° < θ < 90° and 225° < θ < 270°, Figure 5b). Some basin cases are also specically named and placed around the total global change spectrum according to their total change direction θ in order to exemplify individual basin results in this respect; results of both direction and magnitude of change are further mapped for all investigated basins in Supporting Figure S3.

For instance, the Mississippi Basin exhibits a decrease in both PET/P and EET/P, so that its climate-driven change has a direction θ c = 245° and magnitude m c = 0.049. This locates its climate-driven change in the change direction paddle 240° 255° of the global climate-driven spectrum, along with approximately 30% of all investigated world basins (Figure 5a). Total change has also decreased in this basin, with a change direction θ = 261° and magnitude m = 0.045. This locates the total Mississippi change in the change direction paddle 255°270° of the global total change spectrum, along with 8% of the investigated world basins and within the range of the possible directions of climate-driven change (225° < θ < 270°, Figure 5b). By contrast, the Congo Basin exhibits decreases in EET/P and AET A /P with a climate-driven change direction θ c = 247° (m c = 0.001) and total change direction θ = 185° (m = 0.010), locating its climate-driven change movement in the same direction paddle as the Mississippi basin in the climate-driven spectrum. However, its placement in the total change spectrum falls outside the possible range of climate-driven change directions, implying dominant landscape drivers of CWOL in this basin, such as deforestation.

Furthermore, the Mekong, Yangtze, Ubangi, and Volga basins exhibit large landscape-driven changes, as seen by their almost vertical direction of total change; for example, the Mekong and Yangtze basins exhibit a direction of increasing total change Δ (AET A /P) opposite to that of their decreasing climate-driven change Δ (EET/P). With these basin examples having a relatively small pristine area fraction (percentages

AET

P

A

> 0 : 038, such as the Krishna and

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 4. (a) Continental water characteristics in Budyko space for
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 4. (a) Continental water characteristics in Budyko space for

Figure 4. (a) Continental water characteristics in Budyko space for the period 19012008 in terms of mean water-balance constrained evaporative index (AET A /P) and mean aridity index (PET/P), with ellipses representing locations in Budyko space of 70% of all basins included in each continent. Dashed lines show the EET/P curves by Budyko [1948]-Langbein [1949] and Turc [1954]-Pike [1964]-Langbein [1949]. (b) Continental spectra of movement in Budyko space for the examples of Oceania and Europe in terms of: (i) climate-driven change and (ii) total change, between periods with at least 20 years of complete P, T and R data within each of the total comparison periods 19011954 and 19552008.

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848 Figure 5. Worldwide water change spectra of movement in Budyko space

Figure 5. Worldwide water change spectra of movement in Budyko space for: (a) climate-driven change and (b) total change for 735 basins. Names aligned with each change direction paddle are examples of basins with change in the direction interval covered by the paddle; corresponding percentages quantify the pristine area fraction in each example basin [Ellis and Ramankutty, 2008].

given next to the basin names in Figure 5b; see Supporting Information for the source and method of calculation), human-driven landscape changes such as irrigated agriculture or hydropower developments may here be dominant drivers of total CWOL. However, human-driven landscape changes are likely not dominant drivers in basins like Irkut and Vitim, judging by their large pristine area fractions. In these basins, water storage changes, such as groundwater changes [ Smith et al. , 2007] or permafrost thaw, judging by permafrost extent in Romanovsky et al. [2002], may instead be dominant drivers of CWOL.

Overall, based on the differences between the total and the climate-driven global change spectra, 74% of basins have CWOL that cannot be explained solely by direct atmospheric climate drivers of water change and must therefore be signi cantly in uenced by landscape drivers. This percentage is calculated as the sum of (i) the percentage of basins in directions 90° < θ < 225° and 270° < θ < 45° of the total change spectrum (i.e., fraction of basins with total change falling entirely outside the climate-explainable range of movement), and (ii) the difference between the percentage of basins with total change and that of basins with climate-driven change, for intervals of change directions of movement where the former is greater than the latter (i.e. fraction of basins where total change falls within the general, climate-explainable change direction range but is not explainable by the basin-speci c climate-driven direction).

Furthermore, in basins where the total change direction is explainable by the basin-specic climate-driven change, landscape drivers may still affect total CWOL for three main reasons. First, total change may have the same direction as climate-driven change, but be greater in magnitude due to some landscape- driven change adding to and being in the same direction as the latter. Second, the overall climatic periods

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for the present change analysis may not capture the timings of major landscape changes in some areas. Finally, multiple landscape-driven changes may counteract each other and damp the overall change of that component.

4. Conclusions

Our results show that landscape-driven water changes often overshadowed direct climate-driven water changes during the twentieth century. Global changes to water on land can therefore not be explained or projected based solely on information about the direct water effects of atmospheric climate change, without the relevant account and resolution of ke y landscape drivers of water change. Earth system modeling must be further developed to suf ciently represent the effects of these multiple, heterogeneous landscape drivers, which we here found to mostly counteract the direct climate-driven water change. The present change spectrum approach can support such model development as a useful tool for quantifying, visualizing, understanding, following up, and comparing water change and its different drivers across regions and scales, up to the global scale.

Acknowledgments The Swedish Research Council (VR, project number 2009-3221) and the strategic environmental research project Ekoklim at Stockholm University have funded this study. All data used in our analysis are included in the Supporting Information of this manuscript. We thank the Editor and the Reviewers for all their comments and suggestions which have helped to improve this manuscript.

The Editor thanks Zbyszek Kundzewicz and an anonymous reviewer for their assistance in evaluating this paper.

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Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848
Geophysical Research Letters 10.1002/2014GL061848

Geophysical Research Letters

10.1002/2014GL061848

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