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Mathematics
Project Work 4
Lukmanulhakim awaluddin
930423125069
S.m.k agama kota kinabalu
lukman
ℜ Acknowledgement..................................................
ℜ Objectives...............................................................
ℜ Introduction ...........................................................
ℜ Part 1......................................................................
ℜ Part 2......................................................................
ℜ Part 3......................................................................
ℜ Further Explorations...............................................
ℜ Reflections............................................................
ℜ Conclusion..............................................................
Acknowledgement
First of all, I would like to say Alhamdulillah, for giving me the strength and health
to do this project work and finish it on time.
Then I would like to thank to my teacher, Mdm Fazilah for guiding me throughout
this project. Even I had some difficulties in doing this task, but she taught me patiently
until we knew what to do. She tried and tried to teach me until I understand what I’m
supposed to do with the project work.
Besides that, my friends who always supporting me. Even this project is
individually but we are cooperated doing this project especially in disscussion and
sharing ideas to ensure our task will finish completely.
Last but not least, any party which involved either directly or indirect in
completing this project work. Thank you everyone.
The aims of carrying out this project work are:
By the 18th century, the term " statistics" designated the systematic
collection of demographic and economic data by states. In the early 19th
century, the meaning of "statistics" broadened, then including the discipline
concerned with the collection, summary, and analysis of data. Today statistics is
widely employed in government, business, and all the sciences. Electronic
computers have expedited statistical computation, and have allowed statisticians
to develop "computer -intensive" methods.
Statistics Today
Today the use of statistics has broadened far beyond its origins.
Individuals and organizations use statistics to understand data and make
informed decisions throughout the natural and social sciences, medicine,
business, and other areas. Statistics is generally regarded not as a subfield of
mathematics but rather as a distinct, albeit allied, field. Many universities
maintain separate mathematics and stati stics departments. Statistics is also
taught in departments as diverse as psychology, education, and public health.
Index Number
Index numbers are today one of the most widely used statistical indicators.
Generally used to indicate the state of the economy, index numbers are aptly
called ‘barometers of economic activity’. Index numbers are used in comparing
production, sales or changes exports or imports over a certain period of time.
The role-played by index numbers in Indian trade and industry is impossible to
ignore. It is a very well known fact that the wage contracts of workers in our
country are tied to the cost of living index numbers.
1. Price Index
The most frequently used form of index numbers is the price index. A price
index compares charges in price of edible oils. If an attempt is being made to
compare the prices of edible oils this year to the prices of edible oils last year, it
involves, firstly, a comparison of two price situations over time and secondly, the
heterogeneity of the edible oils given the various varieties of oils. By constructing
a price index number, we are summarizing the price movements of each type of
oil in this group of edible oils into a single number called the price index. The
Whole Price Index (WPI). Consumer Price Index (CPI) are some of the popularly
used price indices.
2. Quantity Index
A quantity index measures the changes in quantity from one period to
another. If in the above example, instead of the price of edible oils, we are
interested in the quantum of production of edible oils in those years, then we are
comparing quantities in two different years or over a period of time. It is the
quantity index that needs to be constructed here. The popular quantity index
used in this country and elsewhere is the index of industrial production (HP). The
index of industrial production measures the increase or decrease in the level of
industrial production in a given period compared to some base period.
3. Value Index
The value index is a combination index. It combines price and quantity
changes to present a more spatial comparison. The value index as such
measures changes in net monetary worth. Though the value index enables
comparison of value of a commodity in a year to the value of that commodity in a
base year, it has limited use. Usually value index is used in sales, inventories,
foreign trade, etc. Its limited use is owing to the inability of the value index to
distinguish the effects of price and quantity separately.
Calculating index number
• Index number Is a measure used to show the change of a certain quantity for a
stated period of time by choosing a specific time as the base year. In general an
index number is the comparison of a quantity at two different times and is
expressed as a percentage.
= × 100
1
0
I = index number
Q1 = quantity at specific time
• The composite index is the weighted mean for all the items in a certain situation.
Ī =
Ī = Composite index
W = weightage
= index number
Part 1
The prices of good sold in shops are vary from one shop to another. Shoppers
tend to buy goods which are not only reasonably priced but also give value for their
money. I had carried out a survey on four different items based on the following
categories which is food, detergent and stationery. The survey was done in three
different shops. Informations below shows the results from my research.
Question (a)
Picture
Stationery
Food
Detergent
Question (b)
Data
Category Item Price
Giant Servay khidmat
Food 1.self-raising flour 2.70 3.70 3.30
2.sugar 1.80 1.60 1.35
3.butter 3.60 2.90 3.00
4.Eggs(grade A) 3.60 2.90 3.00
Total price 11.70 12.00 12.15
Detergent 1.Washing powder 19.00 21.00 20.50
2.dish washer 4.00 3.20 2.10
3.liquid bleach 6.00 5.50 4.90
4.tile cleaner 10.20 9.80 9.50
Total price 39.20 39.50 38.00
Stationary 1.pencil(shaker) 8.90 9.20 8.20
2.highlighter 3.50 2.90 3.80
3.permenent marker 3.50 2.90 3.80
4.card indexing 14.70 15.00 16.00
Total price 30.60 30.50 32.00
GRAND TOTAL 81.50 82.00 82.15
Food
14
12
10
Self Raising Flour
8
Sugar
6
Butter
4
2 Eggs
0
giant servay khidmat
Detergent
25
20
15 washing powder
dish washer
10
liquid bleach
5 tile cleaner
0
giant servay khidmat
Stationery
16
14
12
10 pencil
8 highlighter
6 permenant marker
4
card indexing
2
0
giant servay khidmat
45
40
35
30
25 giant
20 servay
khidmat
15
10
0
food detergent stationary
40
35
30
25
giant
20 servay
15 khidmat
10
0
food detergent stationary
Question (D)
Based on all the graph in question 1(C) , we can conclude that giant hypermarket
offers the lowest price for their customers. Then followed by servayl and Khidmat. This
is because the supplier of the giant gives the special price for it as it buy by bulk.
servay offer the normal price for their customer as it does not get special price from the
supplier. While, khidmat have to sold the items at the higher price because the shop buy
the items by bulk from Giant.
Other factors that influenced the prices of goods in the shops is such as the
location of the shop, the population of the customers, the status of the shop, the size of
the shop, and the rent for the shop.
Giant can offer the lowest price because it is situated at stratergic place so
indirectly this factor can attract customer buy at the mall. When there are many
customers, the demand of the items will be high and the mall can buy by bulk directly
with the supplier to get the special price. The status of the shop also influenced the
price of the goods sold. As example the shop with status mall will offer the lowest price
than the shop with status mini market. The size of the shop also will influenced the
price. When the size of the shop is bigger its mean it can sell many different items in the
shop. Indirectly the shop will known as one stop center and it will attract many
customers as the people nowadays are very busy. Giant is a bigmall and it provides
many items that we need in our life. Eventhough Giant have to pay rent for the place,
but it not gives too much effects to the price of goods sold as it has many buyers.
Servay and khidmat cannot offer the prices as giant because they are situated
outside the urban area like giant . So the population of the customer will not be as many
as customer in giant. These shops get the supply for their goods from giant. Even they
buy by bulk with giant but their prices still will be higher than giant. The size of these
shop also small and cannot provide too much goods for their customers. They just sold
basic needed for their customers. As they not have too much customers, so the rent
that they have to pay will influenced the price of the goods sold.
n, there are many factors that affect the price of the goods solds in
As a conclusion,
a shop. So, we must be a smart customer to ensure we can get the lowest price. The
graph below will show the conclusion of the difference among the shops based upon
the shops grand total.
grand total
82.2
82.1
82
81.9
81.8
81.7 grand total
81.6
81.5
81.4
81.3
81.2
81.1
giant servay khidmat
Question (e)
The item that has large price different among the shops is marker. Mydin Mall
sold it at RM 3.00, Si Comel sold it at RM3.90 while Embat Shop sold it at RM 3.60.
=
.
=
= 20.20
=
Or
= − )
= 0.8498
The difference of the price of the marker in these three shops is maybe due to the
price given by the supplier to the shops. giant can sold it at lowest prices because the
demand of the buyers for the the item is high so it can buy by bulk with the supplier. So the
shop can get the special price. The demand of the item in servay and Khidmat are low. This
is because the customers are more interested to buy the stationery items in mall or
stationery shops as there are more options to choose. So servay and khidmat cannot buy by
bulk the stationery items with their supplier.
Part2
Every year my school organises a carnival to raise funds for the school. This year
my school plans to install air conditioners in the school library. Last year, during the
carnival, my class made and sold butter cakes. Because of the popularity of butter
cakes, my class has decided to carry out the same project for this year’s carnival.
Question (a)
From the data in Part 1, I would go to Giant to purchase the ingredients for the butter
cakes. This is because giant offers the lowest price among the shops for the items I
want to buy. So my class will able to sold the butter cakes at the low price and get some
profits form the sale. Futhermore, giant is located not far from my school. So it is easier
to my friends and I to go there.
"
= × 100
1
" 0
Ī =
=107.74
To calculate composite index firstly use the formula of composite index. Get
the value for the formula. Lets quantity per cake be as weightage, W. Obtain the
price index from the calculation in question (i). Then, calculate by using the
calculator.
(iii)
On 2009, RM 15.00
On 2010, suitable price is :
× 100 = 107.74%
15
× 100 = 107.74 × 15
1616.10
=
100
= 16.20
Thus, the suitable price for the butter cake for the year 2010 is RM 16.20. The
increase in price is also suitable because of the rise in the price of the ingredients.
Question (c)
= 8.048
This means our school library needs 8 unit of air conditioner.
(iii) My class intends to sponsor one air conditioner for the school library. The
calculation below is to find how many butter cakes we must sell in order to
buy the air conditioner.
Ī =
() () ()() (!) (&) (%)
=
(!&%)
4465
= = 111.625
40
The total price for the year 2010 increase by 111.625%. This is because some price
in the year 2009 increased in the year 2010.
(a) The change in the composite index for the estimate budget for the carnival
from the year 2009 to the year 2010 is the same as the change from the
year
2010 to the year 2011. Below are the calculation to determine the
composite index of the budget for the year 2011 based on the year 2009.
I
× 100 = I
× I
1
I = 111.625 × 111.625 ×
100
I 455 = 124.60
446
Further Explorations
History of early price indices
No clear consensus has emerged on who created the first price index. The
earliest reported research in this area came from Welshman Rice Vaughan
who examined price level change in his 1675 book A Discourse of Coin and
Coinage. Vaughan wanted to separate the inflationary impact of the influx of
precious metals brought by Spain from the New World from the effect due
to currency debasement. Vaughan compared labor statutes from his own time
to similar statutes dating back to Edward III. These statutes set wages for
certain tasks and provided a good record of the change in wage levels.
Vaughan reasoned that the market for basic labor did not fluctuate much with
time and that a basic laborers salary would probably buy the same amount of
goods in different time periods, so that a laborer's salary acted as a basket of
goods. Vaughan's analysis indicated that price levels in England had risen six
to eightfold over the preceding century.[1]
While Vaughan can be considered a forerunner of price index research, his
analysis did not actually involve calculating an index.[1] In 1707
Englishman William Fleetwood created perhaps the first true price index. An
Oxford student asked Fleetwood to help show how prices had changed. The
student stood to lose his fellowship since a fifteenth century stipulation barred
students with annual incomes over five pounds from receiving a fellowship.
Fleetwood, who already had an interest in price change, had collected a large
amount of price data going back hundreds of years. Fleetwood proposed an
index consisting of averaged price relatives and used his methods to show
that the value of five pounds had changed greatly over the course of 260
years. He argued on behalf of the Oxford students and published his findings
anonymously in a volume entitled Chronicon Preciosum.[2]
Formal calculation
Further information: List of price index formulas
Given a set C of goods and services, the total market value of transactions
in C in some period t would be
where
represents the prevailing price of c in period t
represents the quantity of c sold in period t
If, across two periods t0 and tn, the same quantities of each good
or service were sold, but under different prices, then
and
would be a reasonable measure of the price of the set in one period relative to
that in the other, and would provide an index measuring relative prices overall,
weighted by quantities sold.
Of course, for any practical purpose, quantities purchased are rarely if ever
identical across any two periods. As such, this is not a very practical index
formula.
One might be tempted to modify the formula slightly to
where P is the change in price level, t0 is the base period (usually the first
year), and tn the period for which the index is computed.
Note that the only difference in the formulas is that the former uses period n
quantities, whereas the latter uses base period (period 0) quantities.
When applied to bundles of individual consumers, a Laspeyres index of 1
would state that an agent in the current period can afford to buy the same
bundle as he consumed in the previous period, given that income has not
changed; a Paasche index of 1 would state that an agent could have
consumed the same bundle in the base period as she is consuming in the
current period, given that income has not changed.
Hence, one may think of the Laspeyres index as one where the numeraire is
the bundle of goods using base year prices but current quantities. Similarly,
the Paasche index can be thought of as a price index taking the bundle of
goods using current prices and current quantities as the numeraire.
The Laspeyres index systematically overstates inflation, while the Paasche
index understates it, because the indices do not account for the fact that
consumers typically react to price changes by changing the quantities that
they buy. For example, if prices go up for good c then, ceteris paribus,
quantities of that good should go down.
Fisher index and Marshall-Edgeworth index
A third index, the Marshall-Edgeworth index (named for economists Alfred
Marshall and Francis Ysidro Edgeworth), tries to overcome these problems of
under- and overstatement by using the arithmethic means of the quantities:
A fourth, the Fisher index (after the American economist Irving Fisher), is
calculated as the geometric mean of PP and PL:
2000: original index value was $2.50; $2.50/$2.50 = 100%, so our new index value is 100
2001: original index value was $2.60; $2.60/$2.50 = 104%, so our new index value is 104
2002: original index value was $2.70; $2.70/$2.50 = 108%, so our new index value is 108
2003: original index value was $2.80; $2.80/$2.50 = 112%, so our new index value is 112
When an index has been normalized in this manner, the meaning of the number 108, for instance, is
that the total cost for the basket of goods is 4% more in 2001, 8% more in 2002 and 12% more in
2003 than in the base year (in this case, year 2000).
Relative ease of calculating the Laspeyres index
As can be seen from the definitions above, if one already has price and quantity data (or,
alternatively, price and expenditure data) for the base period, then calculating the Laspeyres index for
a new period requires only new price data. In contrast, calculating many other indices (e.g., the
Paasche index) for a new period requires both new price data and new quantity data (or, alternatively,
both new price data and new expenditure data) for each new period. Collecting only new price data is
often easier than collecting both
th new price data and new quantity data, so calculating the Laspeyres
index for a new period tends to require less time and effort than calculating these other indices for a
[3]
new period.
Calculating indices from expenditure data
Sometimes, especially for aggregate data, expenditure data is more readily available than quantity
[4]
data. For these cases, we can formulate the indices in terms of relative prices and base year
expenditures, rather than quantities.
Let be the total expenditure on good c in the base period, then (by definition) we
Chained vs non-chained
chained calculations
So far, in our discussion, we have always had our price indices relative to some fixed base period. An
alternative is to take the base period for each time period to be the immediately preceding time
period. This can be done with any of the above indices, but here's an example with the Laspeyres
index, where tn is the period for which we wish to calculate the index and t0 is a reference period that
anchors the value of the series:
Each term
answers the question "by what factor have prices increased between period tn − 1 and period tn".
When you multiply these all together, you get the answer to the question "by what factor have prices
increased since period t0.
Nonetheless, note that, when chain indices are in use, the numbers cannot be said to be "in period t0"
prices.
Index number theory
Price index formulas can be evaluated in terms of their mathematical
properties per se.. Several different tests of such properties have been
proposed in index number theory literature. W.E. Diewert summarized past
research in a list of nine such tests for a price index ,
where P0 and Pn are vectors giving prices for a base period and a reference
period while and give quantities for these periods.[5]
1. Identity test:
The identity test basically means that if prices remain the same and
quantities remain in the same proportion to each other (each quantity of
an item is multiplied by the same factor of either α, for the first period,
or β, for the later period) then the index value will be one.
2. Proportionality test:
If each price
e in the original period increases by a factor α then the index
should increase by the factor α.
3. Invariance to changes in scale test:
The price index should not change if the prices in both periods are
increased by a factor and the quantities in both per
periods
iods are increased
by another factor. In other words, the magnitude of the values of
quantities and prices should not affect the price index.
4. Commensurability test:
The index should not be affected by the choice of units used to measure
prices and quantities.
es.
5. Symmetric treatment of time (or, in parity measures, symmetric
treatment of place):
A price index for lower later prices should be lower than a price index
with higher later period prices.
8. Mean value test:
The overall price relative implied by the price index should be between
the smallest and largest price relatives for all commodities.
9. Circularity test:
Given three ordered periods tm, tn, tr, the price index for
periods tm and tn times the price index for periods tn and tr should be
equivalent to the price index for periods tm and tr.
Quality change
Price indices often capture changes in price and quantities for goods and services, but they often fail
to account for improvements (or often deteriorations) in the quality of goods and services. Statistical
agencies generally use matched-model price indices, where one model of a particular good is priced
at the same store at regular time intervals. The matched-model method becomes problematic when
statistical agencies try to use this method on goods and services with rapid turnover in quality
features. For instance, computers rapidly improve and a specific model may quickly become obsolete.
Statisticians constructing matched-model price indices must decide how to compare the price of the
obsolete item originally used in the index with the new and improved item that replaces it. Statistical
[6]
agencies use several different methods to make such price comparisons.
The problem discussed above can be represented as attempting to bridge the gap between the price
for the old item in time t, P(M)t, with the price of the new item in the later time period,P( )t + 1.[7]
The overlap method uses prices collected for both items in both time periods, t and t+1. The price
relative P(N)t + 1/P(N)t is used.
The direct comparison method assumes that the difference in the price of the two items is not due
to quality change, so the entire price difference is used in the index. P(N)t + 1/P(M)t is used as the
price relative.
The link-to-show-no-change assumes the opposite of the direct comparison method; it assumes
that the entire difference between the two items is due to the change in quality. The price relative
[8]
based on link-to-show-no-change is 1.
The deletion method simply leaves the price relative for the changing item out of the price index.
This is equivalent to using the average of other price relatives in the index as the price relative for
the changing item. Similarly, class mean imputation uses the average price relative for items with
[9]
similar characteristics (physical, geographic, economic, etc.) to M and N.
After spending countless hours,days and night to finish this project and
also sacrificing my time for chatting and movies in this mid year
holiday,there are several things that I can say...
Additional Mathematics...
From the day I born...
From the day I was able to holding pencil...
From the day I start learning...
And...
From the day I heard your name...