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15/10/2016

CriticalAnalysisofExternalCommercialBorrowingsinIndia

A SAHA, IIM KOZHIKODE ALUMNA

SIBM BENGALURU PLACEMENT REPORT 2016

SYMBIOSIS BANGALO

Critical Analysis of External Commercial Borrowings in India

Anexternalcommercialborrowing(ECB)isaninstrumentusedinIndiatofacilitatetheaccesstoforeignmoneyby
Indian corporations and PSUs (public sector undertakings). ECBs provide an additional source of funds to the
companies allowing them to supplement domestically available resources and take advantage of lower rates of
interest prevailing in the international financial markets. ECBs have become very popular amongst the Indian
companies,duringthepastfewyearsduetothelimitationsintheIndiandebtmarketintheformofshortmaturity
periodandhighrateofinterest.

TypesofECBs
Atpresent,Indiancompaniesareallowedtoaccessfundsfromabroadinthefollowingmethods:

(i) External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) refer to commercial loans in the form of bank loans, buyers
credit, suppliers credit, securitized instruments (e.g. floating rate notes and fixed rate bonds, nonconvertible,
optionally convertible or partially convertible preference shares) availed of from nonresident lenders with a
minimumaveragematurityof3years.

(ii)ForeignCurrencyConvertibleBonds(FCCBs)meanabondissuedbyanIndiancompanyexpressedin
foreigncurrency,andtheprincipalandinterestinrespectofwhichispayableinforeigncurrency

(iii)Preferenceshares (i.e. nonconvertible, optionally convertible or partially convertible) for issue of which,
fundshavebeenreceivedonorafterMay1,2007wouldbeconsideredasdebtandshouldconformtotheECBpolicy.
Since these instruments would be denominated in Rupees, the rupee interest rate will be based on the swap
equivalentofLIBORplusthespreadaspermissibleforECBsofcorrespondingmaturity.

(iv)ForeignCurrencyExchangeableBond(FCEB)meansabondexpressedinforeigncurrency,theprincipal
andinterestinrespectofwhichispayableinforeigncurrency
WhycompaniesoptforECBs

i.Foreigncurrencyfunds: Companies need funds in foreign currencies for many purposes such as, paying to
suppliersinothercountriesetcthatmaynotbeavailableinIndia.
ii. Cheaper Funds: The cost of funds borrowed from external sources at times works out to be cheaper as
comparedtothecostofRupeefunds.
iii.Diversificationofinvestorsbase:Anotheradvantageistheadditionofmoreinvestorsthusdiversifyingthe
investorbase

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iv.SatisfyingLargerequirements:Theinternationalmarketisabetteroptionincaseoflargerequirements,as
theavailabilityofthefundsishugewhencomparedtodomesticmarket.

Tre

CorporatecanraiseECBsfrominternationallyrecognisedsourcessuchasbanks,exportcreditagencies,suppliersof
equipment,foreigncollaborators,foreignequityholders,internationalcapitalmarketsetc.

ThegovernmentthroughtheECBpoliciesistryingtonourish2sectors:
i.Infrastructure
ii.SME

Thepoliciesdonotrequireanyapprovalforinvestmentunderalimitinthese2sectors.Thusitiseasytoacquire
foreignloansforsuchenterprises.Apartfromthat,thelowcostoffundsintheglobalmarketprovidesthesmalland
mediumenterprisesfundsatlowcoststhusbringinginmoremoneyinthesesectors

BenefitsofECBsoverothersourcesoffunds
1.CostofraisingECBsismuchlowerthanthatofdomesticborrowings
2.Globalfinancialmarketisamuchbiggersourceofcredit.
3.ForeignlendersprovidefarmoreflexibilityintermsofprovidingsecurityforECBs.
(http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3146458876763128694)
DisadvantagesofECBs
SincethefundsareraisedthroughECBsinforeigncurrencyandtheinterest&redemptionproceedsarealsopayable
in the foreign currency, the issuing company has to hedge its foreign exchange exposure, which involves
expenditure.Incasethecompanyoptstokeepitsforeignexchangeexposureunhedged,itcarriesahugeriskdueto
fluctuationinforeignexchangerates.RBIhasalsoacknowledgedthisproblemandhasinstructedthebankstoput
inplaceasystemformonitoringtheunhedgedforeignexchangeexposureofsmallandmediumenterprises.

ThefundsraisedthroughECBshavetobeutilizedinaccordancewiththeendusespermittedundertheguidelines
assuchthesefundscannotbeutilizedforworkingcapitalorgeneralcorporatepurposes.

RulesandRegulationsregardingECBs
TheDEA(DepartmentofEconomicAffairs),MinistryofFinance,GovernmentofIndiaalongwithReserveBankof
India,monitorsandregulatesECBguidelinesandpolicies.

TheECBpolicybasicallydealswiththefollowingaspects:
1.Eligibilitycriteriaforaccessinginternationalfinancialmarkets
2.Totalquantum/limitoffundsthatcanberaisedthroughECBs
3.Maturityperiodandthecostinvolved
4.Enduseofthefundsraised
5.ConversionofECBsintoEquity

ECBcanbeaccessedundertworoutes,viz.(1)AutomaticRouteoutlined(2)ApprovalRoute

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ECB for investment in real estate sector, industrial sector, especially infrastructure sector in India, are under
Automatic Route, i.e. do not require RBI / Government approval. In case of doubt as regards eligibility to access
AutomaticRoute,applicantsmaytakerecoursetotheApprovalRoute

i)EligibleBorrowers

a)Corporates,includingthoseinthehotel,hospital,softwaresectorsandInfrastructureFinanceCompanies(IFCs)
except financial intermediaries, such as banks & other financial institutions (FIs), are eligible to raise ECB.
Individuals,TrustsandNonProfitmakingorganizationsarenoteligibletoraiseECB.

b)UnitsinSpecialEconomicZones(SEZ)areallowedtoraiseECBfortheirownrequirement.However,theycannot
transferoronlendECBfundstosisterconcernsoranyunitintheDomesticTariffArea

c)NonGovernmentOrganizations(NGOs)engagedinmicrofinanceactivitiesareeligibletoavailofECB

d)MicroFinanceInstitutions(MFIs)engagedinmicrofinanceactivitiesareeligibletoavailofECBs

ii)RecognisedLenders
BorrowerscanraiseECBfrominternationallyrecognizedsources,suchas:

a)Internationalbanksb)internationalcapitalmarketsc)multilateralfinancialinstitutions(suchasIFC,ADBetc.
d)exportcreditagenciese)suppliersofequipmentsf)foreigncollaboratorsandg)foreignequityholders
(http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3146458876763128694)
iii)AmountandMaturity
a)ECBaboveUSD20millionorequivalentanduptoUSD750millionoritsequivalentwithaminimumaverage
maturityoffiveyears.
b)ECBuptoUSD20millionoritsequivalentinafinancialyearwithminimumaveragematurityofthreeyears.

iv)Allincostceilings
Allincost includes rate of interest, other fees and expenses in foreign currency except commitment fee, pre
paymentfee,andfeespayableinIndianRupees.
AverageMaturityPeriod

AllincostCeilingsover6monthLIBOR

Threeyearsanduptofiveyears

350basispoints

Morethanfiveyears

500basispoints

v)Enduses
a) ECB can be raised for investment such as import of capital goods, new projects, modernization/expansion of
existing production units in real sector industrial sector including small and medium enterprises (SME),
infrastructuresectorandspecifiedservicesectors,namely,hotel,hospital,softwareinIndia.
b)Forfirststageacquisitionofsharesinthedisinvestmentprocess
c)InterestDuringConstruction(IDC)forIndiancompanieswhichareintheinfrastructuresector

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d) For lending to selfhelp groups or for microcredit or for micro finance activity including capacity building by
NGOsengagedinmicrofinanceactivities.
e)PaymentforSpectrumAllocation
(http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3146458876763128694)
vi)Endusesnotpermitted
Theborrowingsshallnotbeutilizedforanyotherpurposeincludingthefollowingpurposes:
(a)ForonlendingorinvestmentincapitalmarketoracquiringacompanyinIndiabyacorporate[investmentin
Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), Money Market Mutual Funds etc., are also considered as investment in capital
markets].
(b)forrealestatesector
(c)forworkingcapital,generalcorporatepurposeandrepaymentofexistingrupeeloans.
(http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3146458876763128694)
KeyissueswithECBpolicy
DomesticloanrefinancingbyECBsisnotavailabletocompaniesinsectorssuchasretail,construction,servicesetc.

1. Similar policy available for companies developing sea ports, airports, roads, bridges and power. These sectors
requirecheapsourceoffundingtoremaincompetitiveinglobalmarkets

2.UseofECBsforonlendingisnotallowed.Inabilityofwhollyownedsubsidiaries(WOSs)andSpecialPurpose
Vehicles (SPVs) to raise cost effective debt due to lack of strong balance sheet. SPVs and WOSs prevalent in
infrastructuresectorwhicharecapitalintensive

3.AbsenceoffullcapitalaccountconvertibilityandthusacaponrupeeexpenditureofECBs

AnalysisofECBs

Data
WehaveconsideredBSE500companiesasoursampleforallthecalculationsaswebelieveBSE500coversallthe
sectors and is a good representative of all the listed companies. We have excluded banking and financial
institutionssincetheirneedforcapitaltolendmakethemfundamentallydifferentfromothersectors.

SourcesofECBs
Our analysis reveals that almost 60% of external commercial borrowings is through Secured Loans. Foreign
CurrencyConvertibleNotesformabout18%ofthetotalexternalcommercialborrowings.

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The interest rates for secured loans are lower than those for unsecured loans and hence they are preferred by
companiestoraisecapital.Forbankssecuredloansaresaferandhencepreferredtounsecuredloans.

FCCBs have lower interest rates than loans, however, there is a threat of equity dilution if they are converted to
equity which lowers their appeal to borrowers. Also, in the present scenario where company stocks have been
battered,thelenderswouldnotpreferFCCBs.

WhichSectorspreferECBs
WeanalyzedtheECBborrowingacrosssectorsin2007and2012.Theideawastoseeiftherewasapreferencefor
ECBwithinsomesectorsorwasitdependentonmarketconditions.

(http://ideasmakemarket.com/)

Source:ACEEquity,StudentResearch

The analysis reveals an interesting point that sectors which are performing well generally have lower ECB. For
example,AutoandPharmawhichwerelaggardsinthe2007bullmarkethadECB/TotalLiabilitiesof14%and15%
respectively.However,astheperformanceofthesesectorsrelativetothemarketimprovedin2012,theirECB/Total
Liabilitiesreducedto5%and1%respectively.InfrastructureandPowerareanexceptiontothistrend.

We believe the reason for this trend is that sectors which are not performing well have to avail domestic credit
atunfavourablestringenttermsandsotheypreferECBswhichareavailableatcomparativelyfavourableterms.

ImpactofECBsonstockperformanceofcompanies
WecomparedthestockpriceofcompanieswithhighestECB/TotalLiabilitiesratiowiththeirrespectiveindices.

Wedidthiscomparisonfor2periods,calendaryear2007whichwasabullmarketandcalendaryear2011which
wasabearmarket.

BullMarket
Duringbullmarkets,companieshavehighprofitsandfacelessdifficultyinmeetingtheirinterestobligations.Also,
therupeeisstrongerrelativetodollarwhichreducestheobligationsofECBs.Thisfactcanbeseeninthestockprice
performance of companies with high ECB exposure as they outperformed their respective indices by 50%. The
outperformance was seen across majority of the companies as 14 out of the 20 companies outperformed their
respectiveindustryindices.

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Source:AceEquity,StudentResearch
Bearmarket
During the bear market of 2011, the rupee depreciated heavily, the impact of which was clearly seen in the stock
price performance of companies with high ECB exposure. These companies unperformed their respective industry
indicesby18%.15outofthe20companiesunderperformedtheirrespectiveindustryindex.

Source:AceEquity,StudentResearch
ImpactofECBsonfinancialperformanceofcompanies
To measure the impact of ECB on financial performance of companies we compared the financial parameters of
companieswithECBexposure(55companies)tothosewhichhadonlydomesticdebt(159companies).Weexcluded
debtfreecompaniesfromouranalysisaswespecificallywantedtounderstandtheimpactofECBdebtascompared
todomesticdebt.
Weusethefollowingfinancialparametersformeasuringtheimpact

InterestCover:Directlyidentifiesacompanysabilitytomeetitsinterestobligations
PATMargin:InterestobligationshaveadirectimpactonthePATmarginofacompany
ReturnonEquity:ToanalyzetheimpactonShareholderequity

Since we based our analysis on a large number of companies across all the different sectors, we believe the
unsystematicrisksofindividualcompanieswontaffecttheconclusionsofourresearch.

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The financial performance indicators reveal a trend that reinforces the conclusion of stock price performance.
Duringbullmarkets,thereisnostressonthefinancialperformanceofcompanieswithECBdebt.However,during
bearmarkets,asprofitsbegintofallandrupeedepreciates,theInterestCover,ReturnonEquityandPATmarginof
companies with high ECB exposure reduces greatly indicative of the deteriorating financial condition of such
companies.

RegressionModelling

ImpactofECBonMarketCapitalizationofCompanies

WehavetakentheECBdataforBSE500companiesandmodelledtheirmarketpriceasafunctionof
i.ECBasa%oftotalliabilities
ii.ReturnonEquity
iii.BookValuePerShare
iv.EarningsPerShare
v.EnterpriseValue/EBITDA

Themodelisasfollows

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Since the R Square statistic is relatively high (greater than 0.6), the model is a relatively good fit. We can also
concludethatRoE,BookValuePerShareandEPShaveasignificantimpactat95%levelofconfidenceonthestock
price(sincepvalue<0.05).

However,ECBdonothaveasignificantimpactonthecurrentmarketpriceofcompaniesat95%levelofconfidence,
asthepvalueof0.156>0.05.However,wecanseeinthemodelthatasECBasa%totalliabilitiesrises,thecurrent
marketpricecomesdown.

CorrelationbetweenPricetoBookValueandExternalCommercialBorrowings

WeanalysedPearsonscoefficientofcorrelationbetweenPricetoBookValueandExternalCommercialBorrowings.

ThepricetobookvalueratioandECBarenegativelycorrelated(Pearsonscoefficientofcorrelationis0.102)Thus,
thestockmarketassignsadiscounttothosecompanieswithahighproportionofECBborrowings
Wecanseethereexistsasignificantcorrelation(sincepvalue<0.05)betweenECBandthepricetobookvalueratio
at95%levelofconfidence.

RedemptionPressure
FCCBs will not be converted into equity if the stock is trading at a discount to the FCCB conversion price. In
depressedequitymarkets,thisisoftenthecase.Thiscanbeexcessredemptionpressureoncompanies.Asseenin

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thefollowingtable,thisisoftenthecase:

Insuchascenario,thecompanywhichhasissuedtheFCCBcanfacesevereliquidityandsolvencyissuesasitforced
torepayitsexternaldebtcommitment(whileithadplannedtoconvertintoequityattimeofredemption).InIndia,
thereisapproximately20%defaultrateforFCCBs.Undersuchascenarioofdefault,thecompanymay

i.RefinancetheFCCBsbyrollingoverthebondswithlatermaturitydates,oftenathighercoupons
ii.Lowertheconversiontoequitypriceandfurtherdilutepromoterholdings
iii.Getbondholderstoacceptahaircut(onlyapartialrepaymentoftheirprincipal)

FCCBCaseStudy:SuzlonEnergyIndiasbiggestFCCBDefault
Suzlonraised$200millionthroughdollarconvertiblebondsin2007andtheamountoutstandingonthistranche
was$121.4millionwithaconversionpriceofRs97.26pershare.Thesecondtrancheofconvertiblebondsworth
$20.8 million and issued in 2009 at a conversion price of Rs76.68. Suzlon had also raised $90 million through
dollar convertible bond on July 24, 2007 and $175 million on April 12, 2011. Both the tranches would come for
redemptionafterfiveyearsfromthedateofissue.

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AsonJune30,2012,SuzlononstandalonebasishadgrossdebtofRs13,477crorethatincludesRs2,053crore
loan for acquisitions, Rs 3,641 crore FCCBs and Rs 7,783 crore of working capital, capex and other loans.
Promotersheld52.76%ofSuzlonEnergyasonJune30.

Whenthemarketswereattheirpeakin20062008,FCCBsweretheflavouroftheseasonasmanycompaniesfound
itacheaperwaytoraisemoneycomparedtoratestheyweregettinginthedomesticmarket.Thecompaniesbelieved
thatsincetheirshareswouldonlyrise,thebondswouldbeconvertedintoequityinsteadofbeingredeemed.

Economicconditionsweakenedandtheirexpansionplansdidnotplayoutthewaytheywereexpectedto.

Stockhasplungedabout83%inthelastthreeyears,wipingout$2.5billionfromitsmarketvalue.Theshareprice
that tanked to Rs16.15 has made conversion of the debt into equity meaningless, rendering repayment the only
option.Thebondholdershaverejectedafourmonthextensionsoughtbythecompany&henceSuzlonEnergy,the
debtladen wind turbine maker, is set to default on redemption of over $200 million foreign currency convertible
bonds(FCCBs).Suzlondidnotgetextensionasthecompanycouldnotofferaconcreteroadmapthathowitwillpay
backtheloanafterfourmonths.InJuly,Suzlonredeemed$360millionofFCCBsafterbondholdersagreedtoa45
daydeadlineextension.AconsortiumofbanksincludingSBI,BankofBarodaandICICIBankgaveloantoSuzlon
inJuly,2012thatsaveditfromdefault.Butthistimeitisdifficultasthecompanyhasverylittletoofferasitsshare
prices are battered very few assets are left to be offered on the block and revenue realisations are low due to the
slowdowninUSandEuropeanturbinemarket.

Thecombinationofhigherdomesticborrowingcostsandriskaversionamongglobalbankshasmadeittougherfor
thesmallerandmidsizedIndiancompaniestoraisefundstopaybondholders.Atotalof21ofthe56companies
holding an outstanding of $5 billion foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) maturing in 2012 are likely to
defaultonredemptionpayment,accordingtoanS&Preport.

ImpactofECBonIndiasExternalDebt
Externaldebtofacountryindicatescontractualliabilityofresidentstononresidents.AttheendofMar2012,asper
RBIestimates,thetotalexternaldebtforIndia(includingbothlongandshorttermdebt)standsat$345billion.The
debtwasup13%from$305billionattheendofMarch2011.TheriseinExternalCommercialBorrowingwasoneof
themajorcontributorsoftheriseinexternaldebtaccountingfor39.7percentoftheincreaseintotaldebt.

Aswecanseefromthebelowgraph,thecompositionofIndiasexternaldebtisundergoingamajorchangewherein
the contribution of multilateral and bilateral debt is falling while that of ECBs and NRI deposits is increasing
sharply.Between2006and2012,ECBsinIndiahasgrownata25.7%whiletotalexternaldebthasgrownat16%
CAGRduringthesameperiod.

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CriticalAnalysisofExternalCommercialBorrowingsinIndia

Asaresult,thecontributionofECBinthetotalexternaldebthasincreasedfrom19%in2006to30%in2012while
that of multilateral and bilateral debt has fallen from 23% to 14% and 11% to 8% respectively. This changing
structure indicates the Indian economy is becoming more market oriented and is becoming integrated with the
worldeconomy.

However, the increase in ECB gives rise to concerns in case of depreciation of rupee as it leads to a higher debt
serviceburden(inrupeeterms)thatadverselyimpactstheprofitabilityandbalancesheetofcompanies.

DebtService
Debt Service payments witnessed a sharp rise in 201112 from 201011 levels. The gross debt service payments
increased by more than 65% from $19.1 billion in 201011 to $31.5 billion in 201112. Prior to 201112, the debt
service payments remained in the range of $11$19 billion. This rise in debt service payments was mainly due to
highercostsofECBs.

33

Lookingatthecompositionofdebtpayments,weobservethatdebtpaymentstowardsECBscontinuetocontribute
themostsignificantportionoftotaldebtpayments.Also,thecontributionofpaymentstowardsECBshasincreased

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significantlyin201112to80%from71.3%in201011.Itmaybenotedthattherepaymentstowardsshorttermdebt
arenotincludedinthetotaldebtpayments(aspertheinternationalpractice).

Asdiscussedabove,theriseindebtpaymentsin201112ismainlyattributabletotheriseintheservicingcostsof
ECBs. This can also be observed by looking at the implicit interest rates for different debt components. Implicit
interestrateisestimatedas:

ImplicitInterestRate=Interestpaymentsduringtheyear
_________________________________
Debtoutstandingattheendofpreviousyear

During201112,theimplicitinterestrateforthetotaldebtincreasedfrom2.3%to2.8%mainlycausedbyrisein
implicitinterestrateforECBwhichstoodat5.6%in201011asagainst4.3%in201112.

33
FutureOutlook
AnissueforthecountryisthatwhileECBscanbeablessingforsomecompanies,itraisestheissueofsustainability
5

ofexternaldebtatthemacrolevel.

WithECBsbecomingattractive,theynowaccountfor30%ofthetotaldebttheycouldriseaslongasourinterest
3
ratedifferentialwiththoseintheeuromarketiswide.Thebackupintermsofreserveswouldincreaseprimarily
fromhotmoneyFIIflowsinthefuture,whichmaynotbetheperfectmatch.This,coupledwiththeforexrisk,inthe
absenceofhedgingwouldbethetwoconcernsgoingahead.

WecanexpectanincreaseindemandforECBsamongsttheIndianCompaniesbecauseofthefollowingreasons:
1.PlansforHugeSpendingonInfrastructureprojects
2.Domesticinterestratesaremovingupwards

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[ThearticlehasbeenwrittenbyKeyurVinchhi.HeisanMBA(201113batch)inMarketing&Financefrom
MDIGurgaonandhaspreviouslyworkedinL&Tforabouttwoyears.]

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