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A Thesis
Of Cornell University
Master of Science
by
May 2006
© 2006 Mary Elizabeth Riley
ABSTRACT
during the different climatic regimes. Explored in this study are the
analysis has been performed on the data for 1951-2004, during which
all data sets were available and, separately, for positive and negative
have been found between the separate PDO phases. The results of
this study indicate that the potential for predicting reservoir behavior
management applications.
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author would like to thank her advisor, Art DeGaetano, as well as
her M.S. thesis committee members, Dan Wilks and David Pimentel.
Regional Climate Center, the 11th floor graduate students, and Melissa
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................iii
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH..................................................................iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................iv
LIST OF TABLES...............................................................................vi
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1
DATA ................................................................................................ 8
METHODS ...................................................................................... 19
RESULTS........................................................................................ 22
APPLICATIONS ............................................................................... 37
APPENDIX A ................................................................................... 41
APPENDIX B ................................................................................... 46
REFERENCES ................................................................................ 47
v
LIST OF TABLES
Indices ............................................................................................................... 24
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 10: NAO O-A and Streamflow JFM, Positive PDO Years. ........... 33
Figure 11: NAO O-A and Streamflow JFM, Negative PDO Years ........ 33
Figure 18: Height anomalies associated with PNA at 500 hPa .............. 46
vii
INTRODUCTION
and how these relationships might change during the different climatic
regimes.
Arguably the most significant climate index for the United States
Barnett, 1998; Kahya and Dracup, 1993; Dracup and Kahya, 1994;
Wang and Fu, 2000; Dettinger, et al., 2000; Rajagopalan, et al., 2000).
1
In North America, statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlations
seasons in advance using summer and fall SOI and one season in
least in the western United States, but this was not explored for the
eastern United States. Dracup and Kahya (1994) further explore the
2
Northeast. Six out of eight La Niña years during the 1948-1988 study
Northeast.
3
Dettinger, et al. (2000) propose that ENSO displayed less
fails. Additionally, during the 1950s and 1970s La Niñas were more
in their first RPC for cyclonic activity that coincides with the phase-
discussed in Appendix A.
hPa height anomaly over the eastern United States. For example, the
4
findings, Bradbury et al. (2003) found that NAO does not correlate
precipitation patterns.
over the midwestern and eastern United States, while wet conditions
result from higher cyclonic activity over New England and the Great
anomalous 700 hPa high over the Canadian Maritimes that restricts
polar air from entering the northeastern United States and colder-
over New England with positive height anomalies to the west and
often in the negative NAO pattern with more blocking over Greenland
and an active Atlantic coastal storm track (Hartley and Keables 1998).
Mantua and Hare (2002) propose that the phase of the PDO is a
unclear, Nigam, et al. (1999) link the PDO with drought and
expressed during the 1960s drought period when large (warm) SST
5
“fuel” for upper tropospheric circulation anomalies over the drought
area, opposing the inflow of low-level moisture over the eastern United
(Nigam, et al. 1999). McCabe, et al. (2004) found that 52% of spatial
components. The first three principal components (PCs), with PC1 and
74% of drought variance. They also state that recent droughts (1996,
2001).
ocean have similar change points and are teleconnected, but with
multiple modes. The PDO changes phase around 1924, 1947, and
6
1977 (with minor fluctuations in 1942, 1961, and 1987) (Appendix A);
well (Appendix A). PDO’s phase changes are most significant in 15-25
year and 50-70 year intervals, with only minor fluctuations more
frequently (Mantua and Hare 2002). The regime duration for NAO
PDO and NAO were negatively correlated (out of phase) prior to the late
upon the phase of the PDO. Previous works, while suggesting that
7
DATA
8
This information was acquired for the 1st of each month from two
data published in the New York Times. This date, the 1st of each
600000
550000
Millions of Gallons
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
ry
r
ov er
O r
r il
ay
ly
r
Fe y
ne
st
be
be
be
arc
ar
b
ua
Ju
Ap
gu
Ju
em
c to
em
nu
em
M
br
Au
Ja
ec
pt
D
Se
used as a gauge for winter recharge. To account for the addition of the
normalized (Fig. 3b), using the mean and standard deviation specific to
9
the pre- and post- 1965 periods (Fig. 3). This change had little effect
on the nature of the overall %C time series, which is plotted for 1947-
2004 (Fig. 3a, b). Because the data were heavily skewed to the right, it
From the initial standardized values, the lowest value was added to all
data points to make all data positive. After dividing all points by the
highest value, it was possible to fit the series to a beta distribution (all
120.0
% of Capacity (Usable)
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997
Year
early 1960s and declined during the 1960s drought era. Per-capita
10
consumption steadily increased post-1966 through the mid-1980s
(DeGaetano, 1999).
2.00
Normalized Values
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997
Year
some with records available for 1948-2004, and some with only partial
11
traditional climate division meteorological data. The precipitation data
During any given month within the study period, there were between
14
Precipitation, inches
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-48 Sep-61 Jun-75 Feb-89 Oct-02
Year
25
Number of precipitation
Gauges Providing Data
20
15
10
0
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
12
between 74.32° and 74.47° West, and elevation from 974 ft above sea
1100
1000
900
800
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
and, at any one time, between three and thirteen stations provided
snow data (Fig. 8). The average latitude for the snow data stations
and 74.74° West, and elevation between 985 feet and 1470 feet above
13
Correlation between May Reservoir Levels and Cumulative
Watershed Precipitation
0.80
0.70
0.60
Correlation 0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2-M th
3-M th
4-M th
8-M th
9-M th
10- nth
5-M th
6-M th
7-M th
11- nth
12- nth
nth
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
o
Mo
Mo
Mo
1-M
12
Providing Data
10
8
6
4
2
0
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
streamflow data. Gauge sites were chosen such that they comprise a
14
influenced by human manipulation, and have the most complete
period of record for the 1948-2004 period (Table 3). A total of ten sites
were included in the monthly system average. For each site, monthly
site. The data from the 10 gauges were averaged to create a system-
15
Average Elevation of Watershed Division
Snow Data, 1948-2004
1500
Elevation, feet 1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
16
The atmospheric-oceanic oscillation indices were obtained from
Oscillation (PDO) index chosen for this study was created by the Joint
17
.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.
ascii.table.
averaged SST anomalies from the El Niño 3.4 (EN34) region. EN34 lies
ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/sstoi.indices.
Darwin SLP (std Tahiti - std Darwin). The SOI was obtained from CPC,
calculating the index is the entire Atlantic Ocean basin north of the
18
METHODS
PNA, NAO, AMO) 3-month averages were computed. Averages for Oct-
periods were also calculated. The autocorrelations for each data set
(e.g. the correlation between the JFM average in year n and year n+1)
separately for years within the two PDO phases. The PDO is in its
positive phase during the study years of 1977-97 and in its negative
19
this was the period for which all hydrological time series were
available.
factors (using JAS, OND, and Oct-April, as well) for the positive PDO,
indices (for the year prior to the May reservoir level of interest).
period that data was available for all indices, 1951-2003. Because
PDO years) between PDO phase were evaluated using a Monte Carlo
the index and hydrologic variable from the same years) values to
20
randomly selected years. The correlation between the values in these
21
RESULTS
the time series), only the AMO had statistically significant (p < 0.05)
autocorrelations. During negative PDO years and for the entire period
existed at 1, 2, and 3 year lags (Table 4). During the positive PDO
22
Additionally, the May reservoir levels’ autocorrelations were not
indices, both over the entire 1951-2004 period and within the different
differences that are significant at the 5% level (i.e., less than 500 out
years, seen in the table). For example, in Table 5 the correlation of the
Niño3.4 (EN34 JFM) index is 0.23 during negative PDO years, but is -
0.50 during positive PDO years. During reshufflings of the time series’
0.657 during negative PDO years, but is only 0.187 during positive
PDO years. For these series, a Monte Carlo test found that 253 out of
23
Table 5: Correlations between Atmospheric/Oceanic Oscillation Indices
All Years
PDO PDO NAO NAO PNA PNA EN34 EN34 SOI SOI AMO AMO PDO NAO PNA EN34 SOI AMO
Index O-A JAS JAS O-A JAS O-A JAS O-A JAS O-A JAS O-A JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM
PDO O-A 1
PDO JAS 0.361 1
NAO JAS 0.018 0.107 1
NAO O-A 0.04 0.362 0.172 1
PNA JAS 0.145 -0.061 0.1 0.109 1
PNA O-A 0.742 0.155 0.18 0.137 0.028 1
EN34 JAS 0.534 0.56 0.19 0.039 0.093 0.633 1
EN34 O-A 0.496 0.286 0.105 0.004 0.068 0.621 0.901 1
SOI JAS 0.497 0.46 0.166 0.006 -0.04 0.614 -0.86 -0.82 1
SOI O-A 0.562 0.377 0.054 0.135 0.052 -0.631 -0.78 -0.9 0.74 1
24
AMO JAS 0.01 0.222 0.163 0.092 0.482 0.209 0.036 0.084 0 0.1 1
AMO O-A 0.013 0.218 0.177 0.227 0.451 0.285 0.206 0.156 0.14 0 0.834 1
PDO JFM 0.961 0.684 0.191 0.008 0.105 0.758 0.53 0.485 0.51 0.6 0.033 0.047 1
NAO JFM 0.006 0.201 0.263 0.857 0.198 0.13 0.06 0.087 0.09 0 0.093 0.1 0.002 1
PNA JFM 0.69 0.449 0.048 0.057 0.111 0.866 0.627 0.619 0.65 0.7 0.061 0.118 0.751 0.039 1
EN34 JFM 0.451 0.427 0.027 0.019 0.056 0.598 0.851 0.986 -0.8 -0.9 0.107 0.141 0.434 0.081 0.588 1
SOI JFM 0.552 0.5 0.098 0.113 0.069 0.662 -0.74 -0.88 0.7 1 0.104 0.054 0.531 0.03 0.7 -0.89 1
AMO JFM 0.037 0.109 0.249 0.215 0.399 0.356 0.273 0.254 0.22 0.2 0.74 0.973 0.1 0.119 0.191 0.248 0.166 1
Table 5 (Continued)
25
AMO JAS 0.299 0.347 0.198 0.181 0.424 0.115 0.002 0.28 0.25 0.4 1
AMO O-A 0.353 0.021 0.116 0.111 0.449 0.047 0.109 0.026 0.04 0.12 0.67 1
PDO JFM 0.921 0.462 0.295 0.292 0.379 0.712 0.439 0.253 0.39 0.31 0.337 0.288 1
NAO JFM 0.362 0.09 0.384 0.828 -0.15 -0.218 0.174 0.081 0.18 0.02 0.181 0.165 0.431 1
PNA JFM 0.469 0.128 0.092 -0.051 0.351 0.845 0.633 0.577 0.68 0.7 0.308 0.111 0.634 -0.188 1
EN34 JFM 0.159 0.042 0.2 0.254 -0.14 0.495 0.75 0.988 -0.73 -0.9 0.3 0.009 0.21 0.032 0.55 1
SOI JFM 0.23 0.007 -0.352 -0.375 -0.18 0.556 -0.61 -0.83 0.66 0.98 0.373 -0.21 0.285 -0.109 0.688 -0.857 1
AMO JFM 0.294 -0.16 0.297 -0.056 0.399 -0.181 -0.19 -0.2 -0.07 -0.1 0.488 0.93 -0.21 0.247 -0.07 -0.207 -0.03 1
Table 5 (Continued)
PDO PDO NAO NAO PNA PNA O- EN34 EN34 SOI SOI AMO AMO PDO NAO PNA EN34 SOI AMO
Index O-A JAS JAS O-A JAS A JAS O-A JAS O-A JAS O-A JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM
PDO O-A 1
PDO JAS 0.71 1
NAO JAS 0.356 0.539 1
NAO O-A -0.146 0.134 0.032 1
PNA JAS 0.109 0.3 -0.312 0.262 1
PNA O-A -0.015 0.032 0.141 0.351 0.187 1
EN34 JAS 0.639 0.074 -0.114 0.132 0.138 0.28 1
EN34 O-A 0.657 0.164 0.183 0.22 0.073 0.23 0.95 1
SOI JAS -0.562 -0.057 -0.123 0.153 0.018 -0.148 -0.874 -0.828 1
26
SOI O-A -0.625 -0.121 -0.167 0.193 0.098 -0.15 -0.87 -0.933 0.732 1
AMO JAS 0.246 0.054 0.271 0.033 0.5 0.436 0.079 0.035 0.167 0.05 1
AMO O-A 0.403 0.057 0.171 0.151 0.437 0.558 0.313 0.306 0.35 0.31 0.054 1
PDO JFM 0.959 0.614 0.357 0.137 0.167 0.014 0.609 0.608 0.519 0.56 0.343 0.494 1
NAO JFM -0.132 0.023 0.119 0.851 0.353 0.255 0.07 0.198 0.19 0.19 0.162 0.052 -0.083 1
PNA JFM 0.789 0.516 0.079 0.297 0.159 0.006 0.647 0.644 0.603 0.58 0.374 0.461 0.804 -0.146 1
EN34 JFM 0.603 0.695 0.2 0.247 0.043 0.23 0.91 0.984 -0.76 -0.9 0.013 0.296 0.551 0.224 0.606 1
SOI JFM -0.65 -0.709 0.13 0.256 0.074 0.116 -0.828 -0.916 0.7 0.96 0.091 0.341 0.583 0.217 0.655 -0.911 1
AMO JFM 0.445 0.326 0.395 0.222 0.376 0.286 0.375 0.376 0.414 0.38 0.805 0.981 0.533 0.138 0.479 0.369 0.403 1
Comparing the results in Table 5 with information found in the
seen in Table 5, the O-A averaged PDO correlates quite strongly with
EN34 O-A during negative PDO years, but not very well during positive
PDO years. This is also true for the SOI. Quantitatively, there are no
Wang and Fu (2000) found that ENSO does not modulate the
PNA pattern. In this study, JAS EN34 and PNA were not found to
correlate highly to each other in any period. However, JAS EN34 has
been found to correlate highly (r > 0.6) to the following JFM PNA in all
(r = -0.5) to PNA O-A during positive PDO years but only a moderate
between North Pacific SSTs and PNA than between tropical Pacific
SSTs and PNA. In Table 5, that is confirmed (using PDO for N. Pacific
SSTs) during the overall period (r = 0.74 for the O-A period) and
positive PDO years (r = 0.66 during O-A), but not during negative PDO
years (r = -0.02). The summer PDO and PNA are not significantly
27
However, during the negative PDO years, the PNA and PDO are
Schwing, et al. (2003) state that Atlantic and Pacific oscillations are
correlated, but in multiple modes. For example, the oceans were “in
phase” prior to 1957, but “out of phase” 1962-1988. They also suggest
the shift, but do not provide any detail. However, this does not
may work together to affect hydrological parameters, but not how they
and JFM. Appropriate p-values for each sample size have been based
of freedom. For the entire study period, the correlations (r) are
significant at the p = 0.05 level for r > 0.226 (52 degrees of freedom),
for negative PDO years r is significant at p = 0.05 when r > 0.291 (33
= 0.05 level when r > 0.369 (21 degrees of freedom). It should be noted
that these values weren’t used for the threshold of significance for the
autocorrelations of less than 0.50 are not significant. Values that are
noticeably different for each period are highlighted (Table 6). Cells
28
variables are unnecessary, e.g., OND streamflow could not be a result
May O-A
Res JFM OND O-A JFM JFM Snow/ JFM OND Stream-
All Years Level Precip Precip Precip Snowfall Precip Ratio Streamflow Streamflow flow
29
Table 6 (Continued)
May O-A
Positive Res JFM OND O-A JFM JFM Snow/ JFM OND Stream-
PDO Years Level Precip Precip Precip Snowfall Precip Ratio Streamflow Streamflow flow
PDO years, but is not significant during negative PDO years (r = 0.49
positive PDO years (r = 0.418) and over the entire study period (r =
different periods.
30
snowfall, and May reservoir levels have significant correlation
indices (Table 7). The numbers in bold font are statistically significant
31
Table 7 (Continued)
positive NAO phase (Fig. 10). Conversely, during the negative PDO
this difference, once again the Monte Carlo method has been
32
NAO O-A vs. Streamflow JFM, Positive PDO
Years
Streamflow JFM
1.5
0.5
0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
NAO O-A
2
Streamflow JFM
1.5
0.5
0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
NAO O-A
33
Hartley and Keables (1998) found that from the late 1950s-60s,
seen in Table7, this study found that during the negative PDO years
that characterized the 1950s and ‘60s JFM NAO has a significant
there was still a negative correlation between the indices, but at non-
significant levels. Here it is also found that the previous JAS NAO
watershed during positive PDO years, but not during the other
JFM snowfall during positive PDO years, but not during the negative
phase.
years, but not during negative PDO years and for the study period as a
the PNA pattern.” The results of this study suggest that this is not
34
true for the northeastern U.S., at least in a statistically significant
7, various periods of NAO and AMO are the only oscillations with any
years were any similar results for the NYC watershed found in this
study. It is noted, though, that time series here were not broken up
into La Niña and El Niño years, as the Dettinger, et al. study did.
could explain the lack of a linear relationship in this study. They also
found that, for their study years of 1948-88, the previous summer and
fall PNA index “provide[s] guidance” for spring streamflow. This result
is, in fact, confirmed here, but only during negative PDO years, during
which the JAS PNA correlates positively with JFM streamflow (0.36).
During the full study period, and also in positive PDO years, the
This study has been primarily diagnostic. The results have been
largely exploratory. The goal has been to seek out any statistically
and the local hydrology, particularly those that vary with PDO phase.
35
To more fully understand the paradigm, more detailed studies into the
“Applications” section.
36
APPLICATIONS
with any real value for resource planning, using information from the
for the different periods, with regard to annual peak reservoir levels
analysis (LDA) and the results confirmed through cross validation (CV)
analysis was run to determine the most accurate: 1.) single predictor,
all years of the study, positive PDO years only, and negative PDO years
only. Each time series used as a predictand was divided into two
37
groups, “above normal” and “below normal,” based on the mean of the
full series. The skill for each run is given as a Kuiper skill score (KSS)
(Wilks, 1995) and also how many correct predictions as above or below
were forecast and not observed, c is the number that were not forecast
but were observed, and d is the number of predictions that were not
time period, two sets of predictors were run separately. In one set were
the O-A, OND, and JFM averages (diagnostic), and in the other the
that was useful in LDA occurred during the positive PDO period.
LDA. Together, AMO OND, AMO JFM, and PNA JFM achieved a KSS
years, and this was confirmed with CV at a slightly lower KSS of 61.91
38
In separate runs using wintertime averages and JAS averages as
predictors for JFM snowfall, significant results occurred for each, but
during different periods of the study. During the negative PDO years,
EN34 JFM, SOI JFM, and NAO JFM achieved a KSS of 75.0 (28:32) in
PNA. It achieved a KSS of 80.95 (19:21) with LDA during the positive
the single best predictor in all time periods was the previous October
reservoir level. In this case the highest KSS values are relatively low,
the highest was 43.71 (23:32 correct) during negative PDO years. The
levels was found to be PNA JFM and October reservoir levels, and only
during negative PDO years. The LDA KSS for this combination was
68.75 (27:32), and this value was also achieved with CV. There were
39
As the above LDA and CV results demonstrate, it may be
this study may provide a good starting point for additional research.
mechanisms that drive these empirical findings will also increase the
40
APPENDIX A
Oscillation Definitions
et al. 2001). Warm phases have occurred 1860-80 and 1940-60 and
Figure 12: The AMO cycle, 1860-1995. From Enfield, et al. (2001)
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Under normal conditions in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean, strong easterly trade winds pile warm water
along Australia and southeastern Asia. When the eastern trade winds
subside, the pooling of warm water occurs farther east along the
equator in the region of 5°S to 5°N, 90°W-160°E. This part of the cycle
greater than normal) and subsequent cold upwelling that follows in the
SSTAs (as derived from the 1971-2000 normals). If, for three months,
consecutively greater than (less than) 0.5°C, an El Niño (La Niña) phase
41
more eastern pool of warm water in El Niño due to rising heat/air,
while near Australia cooler than normal SSTs favor high pressure
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensof
aq.html#NINO,http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/ElNinoDef.
htm).
42
Figure 14: SSTAs for Equatorial Pacific. (Image from
http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/enso/sstdep.gif)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): A “seesaw” in effect between the
in a positive phase when the low is deeper than normal and the high is
when the SLP anomalies are very mild. The weaker cross-Atlantic
winter storm track is associated with cold air dipping farther south in
pressures (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO).
43
Figure 15b: Positive NAO Figure 15c:Negative NAO
general scenario general scenario
the North Pacific being cooler (warmer) -than-normal. The PDO index
44
Figure 16: SSTAs associated with +PDO phase. (Image courtesy of
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/img/pdo_enso_comp.gif)
monthly average 500 hPa height for 1950-2000. It is one of “the most
45
of height anomalies over North America with Hawaii and central
(negative) PNA is associated with more meridional (zonal) flow over the
Figure 18: Height anomalies associated with PNA at 500 hPa. (Image
from http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/
gmb/ssaha/indices/pna_load.gif)
46
APPENDIX B
47
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