Final Report ITS2 Beumer and Kant

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente
Intelligent Navigation
Use of travel condition information in navigation systems
Group 4
K. Kant 0043389
S. Beumer 0022829
Management Summary
Navigation systems are more and more used by car drivers to find the shortest or fastest route to
their destination. Unfortunately these systems cannot see what the traffic conditions are or will be
in the near future. A new navigation system, Intelligent Navigation, uses information about traffic
conditions to improve the route choice of the system and makes mobility more reliable. This report
discusses the development, deployment and assessment of Intelligent Navigation.
To be able to use traffic data for improving the routes the system needs additional components in
comparison with normal navigation systems to be able to get information about traffic conditions.
Also useable data of traffic conditions needs to be available. This data is being collected using mobile
phones tracking. The mobile phone provider sends the information to the data processing centre.
This data is transmitted to the navigation system along with other traffic information from for
example the road operator. The global positioning system is used to determine the position of the
car itself. The destination of the trip is given by the driver and then the navigation system is able to
determine the fastest and shortest route on the basis of this information.
To determine the user needs for the systems interface a web based questionnaire is used. About 100
respondents were counted and this information was processed. This resulted in the lay out for the
interface according to the information in table 1.
Displayed standard
Standard route
Expected arrival time standard route
Expected travel time standard route
Distance to destination standard route
Traffic conditions in the neighbourhood
Displayed in case of unexpected events

Alternative route
Expected arrival time alternative route
Saved travel time alternative route
Saved distance alternative route
Table 1 - Interface properties
A market assessment has been used to determine the position of TomTom as a competitor. It is
expected that the price for dynamic navigation systems will be reduced due to more competition.
Also investments in marketing and research and development will rise. The RAID approach has been
used to determine the biggest threats when deploying the system. The following ones are considered
to be the five biggest risks.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Bad publicity for the system

Wrong maps inside the system
TomTom is able to maintain a too big market share
No possibilities for cooperation with phone company
The system is too expensive
Considering these conditions and threats a deployment strategy is developed. This strategy is based
on four phases; the development, market introduction, gaining market share, and maintaining
market share. These four steps have their own characteristics describing how a stable business
situation and brand can be established. It is considered important to have a reliable system for a
good price.
An impact assessment has been used to determine the impact of the system. It is expected that the
system will result in spread traffic network based and time based as well. Because drivers have more
information, both pre-trip and on-trip. The infrastructure based information systems are probably
Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer
less needed when a lot of people have the displayed information already visible in their own vehicles.
The system will also result in less delay times on the network as well as a more reliable travel time.
This is partly expected on the basis of a second questionnaire that has been distributed online as
well. A total of 49 useful respondents were collected that filled in the stated preferences
questionnaire resulting in 581 choices. Two utility functions are determined for describing the choice
between a standard route (SR) and an (shorter) alternative route (AR).
=
4.67 2
= 1.42 2.75 3 0,82 4
(1)
(2)
With x2 = delay at the standard route, x3 = extra length of the alternative route and x4 = The use of
secondary roads in the alternative route. Also the trip length is investigated but resulted in having no
significant effect on the route choice. Using these results the probability of the use of the standard
(SR) and alternative route (AR) can be calculated with:

= +
and
= +
(3)
Using this model some consideration about traffic modelling have been made. It is expected to be
possible to model this situation in a dynamic traffic model. Using data from the second questionnaire
and other data bases gives the input.
Looking at the whole project it can be concluded that the development and a good deployment of a
new product are very difficult. Different assessment methods are very important for resulting in a
high quality product. The users are one of the most important stakeholders and a good assessment
of their needs is crucial for the success of the navigation system. From a more business point of view,
the deployment strategy regarding competitor TomTom is very important. Also the cooperation with
a mobile phone company for the collection of traffic data is one of the first steps towards success.
Preface
This report describes the development of Intelligent Navigation. It is part of the course Intelligent
Transport Systems 2 (542062). The past period we have applied the knowledge and skills collected
during the course Intelligent Transport Systems 2 (542061). We proudly present the final result of the
hard work we have completed.
We like to take into considerations some thankful moments. Personal words of appreciation go out
to Bart van Arem, Mohamed Mahmod, Nina Schaap and Thijs Muizelaar. Without their help at
certain times we would not have been able to present this report in its present form.
Sjoerd Beumer
Kees Kant
Enschede, Tuesday 5 February 2008
Table of Contents
Management Summary ........................................................................................................................... 2
Preface..................................................................................................................................................... 4
1
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6
Intelligent Navigation System Description ................................................................................... 7

2.1
System lay-out ......................................................................................................................... 7
2.2
Components ............................................................................................................................ 8
2.3
Architectures ......................................................................................................................... 11
2.4
System Classification ............................................................................................................. 13
User Needs .................................................................................................................................... 14

3.1
Questionnaire One User Needs .......................................................................................... 14
3.2
Questionnaire Results ........................................................................................................... 15
Stakeholders Analysis .................................................................................................................... 16

4.1
Stakeholders .......................................................................................................................... 16
4.2
Stakeholder Interests ............................................................................................................ 16
Competitor Assessment ................................................................................................................ 18

5.1
Market Assessment ............................................................................................................... 18
5.2
Risk Analysis........................................................................................................................... 20
5.3
Deployment Strategy............................................................................................................. 21
Road operator assessment ............................................................................................................ 23

6.1
Impact Assessment ................................................................................................................ 23
6.2
Choice modelling ................................................................................................................... 25
6.3
Traffic modelling .................................................................................................................... 30
Conclusion and Discussion ............................................................................................................ 31
Literature ....................................................................................................................................... 33
Appendixes ............................................................................................................................................ 34
1 Introduction
Improving the world a little bit, is an often heard reason for researchers to work with persistent
devotion on new and innovative developments. The same can be said for the field of Intelligent
Transport Systems (ITS). New,mostly high technological systems are developed to improve safety,
comfort, sustainability and optimality in human mobility. Unfortunately not all effort can be put in
improving the world but many (negative) side effects and social or economic conditions also need
attention. Both ingredients are assessed in this project where a new ITS system is designed and
assessed. Not only the technological component is being addressed to, but the human, social and
commercial conditions as well. To guarantee a successful market implementation of the system, the
project is being worked out from a business perspective.
Navigation systems are more and more used by car drivers to find the shortest or fastest route to
their destination. Unfortunately these systems cannot see what the traffic conditions are or will be
in the short future. It can happen that the shortest route makes you strand in heavy congestion while
faster routes are possible if only the navigation system would know where the congestion is. The
proposed system uses information about traffic conditions to improve the route choice of the system
and makes mobility more reliable,... Intelligent Navigation!
This report discusses the development, design and assessment of this new navigation system. The
focus of the research lies on the technical design of the system, the user needs and the market
deployment with TomTom as a big competitor in the sector of industry. Chapter two describes the
system, components and architecture. Chapter three focuses on the users, the drivers. The main
questions asked in this chapter are: What are the user needs? and How will the users respond to
the system?. Two questionnaire are used as input for answering these questions. The fourth chapter
analyses the other stakeholders in the development, deployment and use of the system. This is an
important base for the assessment of the market conditions in chapter five. The impact assessment is
being done using the Converge approach (ERTICO, 1998) and focuses on two stakeholders; the road
operator and competitor TomTom. For this last stakeholder a deployment scenario is designed and
risks in this deployment are assessed using the RAID-approach (Gaillet, 1999).
2 Intelligent Navigation System Description

The first step is to identify the systems properties. How does the system look like and how is it build.
This chapter determines the system architecture on three field; physical, functional and
communicational architecture. With these three types of architecture descriptions, a complete
description of the systems components is given, including the working and relations. Before the
architectures are described some steps are needed. First the systems lay-out is described (section
2.1). From this, solutions for the different components are defined (section 2.2). All options are
analyzed by describing the positive and negative properties. Finally the best solution is chosen and
described in one of the three different architectures (section2.3).
2.1 System lay-out

Figure 1 shows the basic lay-out for the system. The main components and data streams are defined
and related to each other. The light (blue) components are (likely to be) within the navigation
system, while the darker (green) components are external components. The arrows represent the
data streams.
Maps
GPS sattelites
GPS Receiver
Route System
Traffic Data Receiver
Traffic information
provider
Interface
Driver
Figure 1 System Lay-out
Each component and main data stream is described in table 2. The precise working of the navigation
system (and especially the component that is called Route System in this lay-out) is not excessively
described in this research. Rather a more abstract description is used for the working of the route
system. For the research the external shell of the navigation system in the form of the traffic data
receiver and interface is the most interesting subject. The route-system itself is considered to be like
a black box.
Component
Route System
Maps
GPS Receiver
GPS sattelites
Description
This is the main component of the system where all information is used to calculate the
desired route
The maps are used as input for the route calculation. The maps must be consistent with
the systematic used by the route system
The GPS system is used to determine the current location (and speed). The receiver can
calculate this location based on the signals from the GPS satellites.
The GPS satellites send out a signal from which an exact location on earth can be
calculated
Interface
Driver
Traffic Data Receiver
Traffic Information
Provider
The interface is used to let the user (driver) communicate with the system. In most
navigation systems this is a audio-visual component
The driver is the user of the system and determines the desired destination. The driver
also has preferences about the route he receives from the route system.
The traffic data receiver can receive information about traffic conditions and
communicates this to the route system
Before the traffic data can be received it must be transmitted. This is done by the traffic
information provider component. How the information provider gets this information is
let out of consideration at this stage.
Map data The data from the maps are used by the route system to calculate the best
route
GPS-signal The GPS signals are used by the GPS receiver to calculate the current
location
Current location The current location (and speed) are used by the route system as
input. This is (in most cases) the starting location for the route calculation
&
Destination The driver determines the endpoint of the trip. This is processed by the
interface and used by the route system for the calculation of the route
Traffic information The traffic information must be sent to the navigation system.
There are many possibilities to do this (see section 2.2)
Received traffic information After the information is received by the receiver the
information is passed on to the route system
Route After all data is processed by the route system, a route is proposed by the route
system. This route is then communicated to the driver using the interface
Directions The interface uses the information about the proposed route to inform the
driver about the driving task. This can be done in different ways, which can be setup by
the user
Table 2 Component and data description
2.2 Components
The system lay-out described the different components of the system. For many components there
are different solutions. This section discusses for each component the possible options and their
properties.
Route system
The route system is the core of the navigation system. In this component all information and data are
used to determine the route according to the preferences of the user. The operation of the route
system is not subject of research and therefore it is expected to be a black box that can calculate the
most optimal (shortest or fastest) route when all information and data is available.
Maps & Map data
The maps are also treated to be part of the core of the navigation system, but are mentioned
separately. This is done because the maps need to be compatible with the traffic data. During the
research this fact is treated as a boundary condition.
GPS satellites, signal and receiver
The GPS part of the navigation system is expected to be the same for this new system as it was for
the original navigation systems. No additional properties are needed to give the system information
about the current location and speed. There is a possibility to use the data about location and speed
of equipped vehicles to monitor traffic conditions, but this will be discussed later in Traffic Data
Collection and Processing.
Another interesting development is the new European positioning system Galileo (ESA, 2007). This
system is expected to be operational in 2012. The positioning is more accurate than the current GPS
system (millimetre accuracy). The compatibility of the navigation system with Galileo could be an
important feature to assure future use of the system.
Interface
The interface is the connection between the system and the user. The user can insert its destination
and preferences through the interface and gets information about the calculated route. Also other
information can be given to the user like places of interest, gas-stations, alternative routes, speed
controls or traffic information. Most navigation systems use audio-visual components to
communicate with the user like a screen and spoken directions. The interface is subject of research in
the user needs assessment. Which type of information does the user want, and when must the
system propose a new route are questions that are asked when developing the interface. The
complete user needs analysis can be found in chapter 3. The following aspects will be initially
designed to be present for the user.
Displayed standard
Standard route

Alternative route
Table 3 - Interface properties
They initially will not all be designed to be presented the same way. The aspects on the left will all be
standard displayed in the main screen. The shown traffic conditions are traffic flows and speed limits.
The aspects on the right will only appear if an improvement in travel time can be made. The level of
improvement is initially set at 10%, but can be changed manually. The saved travel time and
expected arrival time of this route are given by spoken text if asked for. Manually the other aspects
can be chosen as well to use other means of presentation. Audio, either alarm sound or voices, is put
in the system as an option. All options can be changed according to personal needs in a menu using
the touch screen.
Driver
The driver (or user) is the person who uses the system to get informed about the route from a
certain location to a destination. As mentioned in the previous section, the user interacts with the
system by the interface. The user is not a part of the system but is very important for the proper
working of the system. Therefore, user needs are an important part of the stakeholders analysis. The
needs of the drivers are likely to differ between persons, thus the system has to be able to adjust to
these different needs. Finally the system is also expected to change the behaviour of the drivers and
indirectly also traffic. This is also part of the research and is discussed in chapter 6.
Traffic Data Collection and Processing
The objective of data collection and processing components is to collect and process traffic data to
be input for the route choice. There are many possibilities for the collection of traffic data and the
same can be said for the properties of the data itself. Table 4 shows the properties of three types of
data collection methods. The complete analysis can be found in appendix A.
Type
Infrastructure based (induction
loops, video systems)
Advantages
Easy to measure
No additional systems
necessary
Vehicle based probe vehicles or

feedback from the navigation
system
Driver based cell phone tracking
No dependence on road
operator
High resolutions possible
when number of users is high
Data collection and processing
in own supervision
operator
High refresh rates possible
Good representation about
traffic conditions
Disadvantages
Only on highways (no regional
and urban roads)
Only available via road
operator
Lower refresh rates because of
processing by road operator
Costly to have sufficient
number of probe cars
Also secondary roads can be
monitored
Instant communication
needed from probes
Central server needed for data
processing
Cooperation needed with
mobile phone provider
Privacy issues
Table 4 Summary of types of data collection
Because of the independence of the road operator and high possible resolution of the traffic data the
choice is made to collect the data using cell phone tracking. With this method an estimation on traffic
condition is made by monitoring the connections all mobile phones have with the closest antenna.
Access to data about mobile phone connections is crucial and therefore cooperation is needed with a
mobile phone provider. To enhance the quality of the traffic information other information sources
are used. Therefore a central collects all information and processes this information to make it ready
for the user.
Traffic Data Communication and Receiver
As described in the previous section traffic data information has been collected and processed. Now
the information is ready to be transmitted to the navigation system in the car. For this process a
communication channel and a corresponding receiver are needed. There are several combinations
that can be used. Possible solutions for the communication channel with compatible receivers are
RDS-TMC, TPEG and VICS. Receiver types are pre-trip updates, radio broadcasting, infrastructure
based communication or mobile phone systems. The tables below show a summary of the properties
of the channels (table 5) and receivers (table 6). A more complete analysis and explanation of the
systems can be found in appendix A.
Type
RDS-TMC
Advantages
Infrastructure is already available
Cheap
TPEG
VICS
Flexible data lay-out

Designed for transmitting traffic
information types
Works good in Japan
Disadvantages
Limited possibilities for data
transmission
Low possible refresh rate
Japanese system (not

available in Europe)
Table 5 Summary of types of traffic data communication
10
Type
Pre-trip update (internet)
Advantages
No additional communication
channels needed
Radio broadcast
Infrastructure already exist

Large communication area
Infrastructure based
communication (infrared, short
radio transmission)
Location based information

possible
Mobile phone (GSM, GPRS, UMTS)
Individual information possible

Possibilities to charge users
Universal system, can be used in
every country
Infrastructure already available
Disadvantages
Not available during the trip
Not up to date with longer
trips
Difficult to personalize
information
Available for everyone (no
possibilities to limit access)
Costly to make new
infrastructure
Difficult to implement
nationally
Costs for every data
transmission
Dependence on mobile
phone company
Table 6 Summary of types of communication devices
From the analysis can be concluded that the TPEG standard is the best type of traffic data
communication. The flexibility of the information that can be transmitted and the well-designed
structure make it very useful for this application. The best communication device is the use of the
mobile phone standards like GSM, GPRS or UMTS. The information can be personalized and no large
investments are needed in the systems infrastructure because the mobile phone network is already
available in most countries. The disadvantage that there is a dependence on the mobile phone
company, but this is expected to be minor, because cooperation is already needed for the traffic data
collection.
2.3 Architectures
Now the three most important architecture types are used to give a full description of the system. A
visual representation of the architectures is given on the next page in figure 2. The squares represent
the physical components, the diamond shapes are the communicational architectures and the
backgrounds give the main functionalities of the complete system.
The functional architecture describes the main functions of the systems and the relation between
them. Four main functions are defined as can be seen in figure 2. The relation of the functions with
the other architecture types is clearly visible. The navigation system itself processes the incoming
data of GPS and traffic information and calculates the trip characteristics. It also provides the user
with information and adapts to user preferences. The functional architecture gives also an indication
for the responsibilities. The data collection and processing is under the supervision of the navigation
system provider in combination with the mobile phone company. The data transmission is for its
functionality dependant on the mobile phone company and the GPS signal is the responsibility for
the American Government (which owns the GPS system). The navigation system is property of the
user, but the navigation system provider has some responsibilities for support and the working of the
system.
The physical architecture describes the physical components in the system. All components are
systems that have a certain information or data as input and output. This way the relation with the
communicational architecture is easy to be noticed.
11
Mobile
Phone
Connection
GSM
Antenna
Mobile
Phone
Provider
Location of mobile phone
Mobile phone tracks
Data
Processing
Centre
Traffic information
Data transmission
Processed
traffic information
(TPEG-format)
GSM
Antenna
Processed
traffic information
(TPEG-format)
GPS-functionalities
GPS
satellites
GPS Signal
Data processing, route calculation and information provision
GPS receiver
Route
Module
Current location
Destination
GSM
Receiver
Processed
traffic information
Route & Directions
Interface
User
Destination
Route & Directions
User
Figure 2 Graphical representation of the physical, communicational and functional architecture
Data
transmission
Route &
Directions
Physical Component
Communicational Component
Functional Component
Other traffic
information
providers
2.4 System Classification

The final section of this chapter is the classification of the system in the
transport system layer model. The system is used by drivers. Primarily
this will be car drivers, but also in freight transport the system can be
used. The means of transport is thus clear. The system has an impact on
the traffic market (see figure 3) where the system helps users with the
choice which infrastructure to take, especially which route.
People,
Products
Travel market
Travellers,
Load Units
Transport market
Means of
Transport
Traffic market
Infrastructure
Figure 3 Layer Model
3 User Needs
This chapter discusses the user needs assessment. Input for the user needs analysis is a
questionnaire. This is used for analyzing the interface attributes. The questionnaire is first shortly
being described (section 3.1); the complete lay-out and the results of the questionnaire can be found
in the appendix B. The most important results are presented in section 3.2. This has been used as
input for the design of the interface as discussed in section 2.2 already.
3.1 Questionnaire One User Needs

The first questionnaire is used to determine the user needs for the system. These needs determine
the lay-out of the interface. Because it is impossible to assess an infinite number of attributes, a
choice is made which attributes are used. The attributes that were thought to be important for the
interface are the original route, the traffic conditions in the neighbourhood, the travel and arrival
time, and distance to location. These all account for both the original and the alternative route. The
saved travel time and distance when taking the alternative route are the last two attributes.
Second the questionnaire is used to determine when the system should present an alternative route
and how. The way the availability of an alternative route and its characteristics (saved time, saved
distance, and expected arrival time) are presented to the driver is suggested to be either visual or by
sound or both. Third, other aspects were briefly considered like usefulness of the system and
willingness to pay.
The questionnaire is distributed digitally through the internet (Thesis tools, 2008). This is an online
system for questionnaires for college-related research. Over 100 respondents filled in the
questionnaire, of which 88 were useful. The main reason for not using the other questionnaires is
because these were not filled in completely. The majority of the respondents were male (70% versus
30% female). Some other characteristics of the group of useful respondents are shown below in
figures 4 and 5.
Figure 4 Respondent characteristics (n=88)
Figure 5 Respondent characteristics (n=88)
14
3.2 Questionnaire Results

All of the attributes that were presented to the respondents appeared to be important or very
important for most of them, as shows figure 6. The traffic conditions scores best, with less than 10%
of the respondents considering this information (very) unimportant. The saved distance when
choosing for the alternative route scores worst, but is still considered unimportant by less than 40%.
Figure 6 Desired information (n=88 for every attribute)
An improvement in travel time was considered more important than an improvement in distance to
be travelled. People prefer to have a visual presentation of the aspects mentioned, but do not have a
preference for the level of detail. Only the availability of an alternative route is thought to be
important to present by a sound, for the other aspects people do not clearly prefer a presentation.
When the alternative route is presented, an alarm sound is preferred. When presenting the details,
spoken text is preferred. Figures 7 and 8 give the results discussed.
Figure 7 How to see the information?
Figure 8 How to hear the information?
The system is considered useful or very useful by 92% of the people questioned. The same amount of
people does not wish to pay an additional price for use or for a certain period. Thus it is preferred to
only introduce the system for a purchase price. The results are considered to be useful for the
project. Therefore the results are used to design the interface as discussed already in section 2.2.
15
4 Stakeholders Analysis
This chapter has as purpose to determine the stakeholders and their interests. The parties involved
with the development and deployment of the intelligent navigation system are defined along with
their needs. First these stakeholders themselves (section 4.1), and second their interests are
described (section 4.2).
4.1 Stakeholders
The first research question unintentionally defined some stakeholders when describing the system
lay-out. The suppliers of hardware and software inside the navigation system are the first
stakeholders. The companies that manage GPS and traffic data and maps for the route system are
suppliers of hardware and software outside the navigation system and are grouped and defined the
second stakeholder. The third stakeholder is the user of the intelligent navigation system. The
opinion of all users and drivers is expected to be combined in that of a drivers association. The fourth
stakeholder is the public authority and the fifth the road safety association, which is concerned with
safety for road users. The sixth and last stakeholder is the group of competitors; among them are
TomTom, Garmin, and VDO Dayton.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Suppliers of hardware and software for the internal system components

Suppliers of hardware and software for the external system components
Drivers association
Public authority
Road safety association
Competitors
4.2 Stakeholder Interests

The stakeholders as described in section 4.1 all have something to do with the intelligent navigation
system that is being developed. In this section the interests of these stakeholders are described. All
interests and consequential actions are described below and shown in table 7.
Stakeholder
Interest
Actions
Internal hard- and software

suppliers
External hard- and software
suppliers
Drivers association
Develop new technologies

Develop new product
Road operator
Government
Sell new products

Create market share
Sell data
Create market share
Comfortable driving
Quality / price index
Get better network performance

Get less environmental damage
Better traffic safety
Road safety association

Get less accidents / victims
Competitors
Maintain market share
Table 7 Stakeholder interests and actions
Lobby for drivers interests

Use & buy best product
React to developments and
changes in mobility
Subsidize new technologies
Subsidize new products
Make regulations for products
Initiate / finance research
(Cooperate for wanted results)
Lobby at producer / government
Develop competitive products
Suppliers of hard- and software for the internal system components are mainly interested in selling
(new) products and, by doing that, creating a (bigger) market share. The parts of the system that are
16
directly implemented in the vehicle will be supplied by them. Whether these parts are already
available will determine whether they can be bought directly or need to be developed first. This
development can focus on new technologies, or just on new products.
Suppliers of hardware and software for the external system components are mainly interested in
selling data, and creating a (bigger) market share too. This group of suppliers consists of the GPS
satellites, map data and traffic information provider. The GPS satellites for example will face new
competition from the Galileo system in the near future. To maintain their position as major supplier
of GPS data, theyd probably like to be the GPS data supplier. The traffic information provider
manages the traffic data that is used. The way this data is being collected determines the data
provider as well.
Drivers associations exist mainly to stand up for the drivers interests. As an association, they know
the interests of their members. They try to get these interests covered in the final product. In this
case the final result they aim for is a product that will enhance a comfortable way of driving. Besides
that the quality price index is an important interest as well. The quality a user gets when spending a
certain amount of money determines whether the product will be bought and used.
The road operator is the first public authority and among other things is aiming to maximize the
capacity of its network. A problem that occurs at times of congestion at main roads is that capacity at
regional roads is not maximally used. The road operator seeks for solutions for this problem by their
regional traffic management operations. If traffic is moving not only on the main roads, but uses the
regional capacity nearby as well, congestion is less likely to occur. The road operator will thus
probably be interested in the intelligent navigation system.
The (regional, national and international) government, the second public authority, is interested in
reliable traffic times and environmental matters. Congestion results in unreliable traffic times and
causes higher emission by involved vehicles. The government is trying to find solutions for both the
congestion and the environmental aspect. They are helped by more fluently spread traffic. This is less
likely to result in congestion or high emissions. If it can be made clear that government objectives are
helped to achieve by this system, it might be possible to be subsidized in some way.
The road safety association is mainly interested in minimizing traffic accidents and accompanying
harmed people. If more traffic is going to use the regional road network, more accidents will likely
occur because these roads are relatively unsafe (Rijkswaterstaat, 2007). The more reliable traffic time
could result in less irritated drivers, which pay more attention to the road and are more relaxed.
Competitors are interested in selling as many products as possible. Any new navigation system is not
something they like to see at the competitor side. Two groups of competitors can be identified; the
group of competitors that do not have a comparable system yet, and the group of competitors that
have one already. The first is more triggered to develop such a system, because not doing that will
result in less market share. The second ones advantage is gone. The main competitor that can be
identified is TomTom, which developed HD Traffic. This system is very much similar to the intelligent
navigation system that is discussed in this report. It is very important to develop a strategy to
introduce the new system as a competitive one. How this will be done is discussed more in detail in
the deployment strategy (section 5.3).
17
5 Competitor Assessment
This chapter discusses the stakeholder assessment for the competitor, in the person of TomTom. A
market assessment is used to determine the market threats and opportunities for the system, in
relation to TomTom (section 5.1). A deployment scenario is made and risks about the deployment of
the system are analyzed using the RAID approach (section 5.2). And finally the deployment stragegy
considering these market conditions and other risks is determined (section 5.3).
For both assessments, the ten assessment steps of the CONVERGE method (1998) are used. The
application is the same for both assessments, namely the intelligent navigation system. A detailed
description is given already in chapter 2. The assessment category is mentioned already above, a
market assessment in the case of the competitor and an impact assessment in the case of the road
operator.
5.1 Market Assessment

The competitors for the system that is being developed are of various kinds. The main competitors
originate in the market for navigation systems. Other competitors are internet-based navigation
suppliers. Also smart phones have more and more navigation options. As described in section 4.2,
TomTom already developed a similar navigation system; High Definition (HD) Traffic. Complementary
it is important to mention they are market leader in in-car navigation systems in several countries
worldwide. To introduce the new system, it is important to know what the market threats and
possibilities are. Therefore a market assessment plan is developed.
5.1.1 TomTom as a Stakeholder
In chapter 4 the competitors are assessed as a stakeholder. Their interests in relation to the new
system and possible actions are defined. Table 8 gives an overview on this analysis.
Stakeholder
Interest
Actions
Competitors
Maintain market share
Develop competitive products
Table 8 Summary stakeholder analysis for competitors
5.1.2 Expected Impacts

The intelligent navigation system is expected to compete with the HD Traffic system that TomTom
recently introduced. Also other competitors might be triggered to develop similar or more advanced
systems or methodologies. The sole stakeholder that is definitely going to profit from this situation is
the driver. Especially those that are willing to use these advanced navigation systems. Some impacts
therefore can be expected:
Directly derived increased competition for HD Traffic, because of introduction intelligent

navigation (target group: TomTom)
Indirectly derived increased competition for HD Traffic and intelligent navigation, because of
market developments (target group: TomTom and developer of intelligent navigation itself)
Lower price of smart navigation systems, because of competition (target group: driver)
Lower profit of HD Traffic, because of lower market share and selling price (target group:
TomTom)
18
For this research these impacts are assessed further. First, the directly derived increased competition
and its accompanying lower selling prices are assessed. Second, the indirectly derived increased
competition and its accompanying market influences are assessed.
Indicators
For estimating the expected impacts of the introduction of the system the used indicators are:
The number of sold HD Traffic and Intelligent Navigation systems. Analysis of these numbers
gives an indication of user acceptance of the system. Comparing these numbers with those
for Intelligent Navigation indicates the market share of both systems.
The selling price of HD Traffic and Intelligent Navigation systems. Analysis of the prices gives
an indication of the willingness to pay. The selling prices of both systems indicate the market
positions.
Appraisal of HD Traffic and Intelligent Navigation by consumers association. This would
indicate the user acceptance of various aspects of system performance; from costperformance ratios to attractiveness of the interface.
Investment in marketing by TomTom. The amount of money TomTom is investing in
marketing for their HD Traffic navigation system indicates the importance they ascribe to this
product. Comparing the invested money at the moment with the invested money after the
introduction of Intelligent Navigation indicates an impact of this introduction.
Reference Case
The reference case is the deployment strategy TomTom uses for their HD Traffic navigation system. It
is however not possible yet to retrieve any data on the strategy TomTom is using.
Data Collection
To collect the number of sold navigation systems by TomTom is very difficult. The annual report most
likely does not contain these exact numbers. Collecting data on the selling price of both systems is
comparable easy. The selling price for TomToms HD Traffic systems is 399. The selling price for
Intelligent Navigation will be 299.
The appraisal of both systems by consumers associations is something that is not necessarily
available. Consumers associations cannot be forced to make such appraisals. But navigation systems
are very popular and TomTom is a growing company. Therefore it is likely that consumers would like
some appraisal when deciding which product to buy.
What counts for the data on number of sold products should count for the investments in marketing
by TomTom as well. It is however not necessarily possible to single out the part that is spend on the
HD Traffic systems.
Conditions of Measurements
The measurements should be executed under certain conditions to be used in this assessment. It is
important that data is retrieved from annual reports as much as possible, because these have been
approved by accountants. The data should furthermore be comparable (in terms of currency and
period) for both products and companies.
Statistical Considerations
The first consideration is that it is hard to retrieve data about the reference case as mentioned
before. Another consideration is that data is provided for both products and companies as
mentioned in the previous subsection. A statistical important consideration is that data is available
for certain periods, preferably for more than one year. This makes it possible to make assumptions
19
on market developments. The length of the period determines the quality of the assessment results.
This assessment is focussed on the period after introduction. But to say something about the period
before introduction, the data about TomTom alone could be used.
Measurement Plan
The aspects discussed in the previous subsections of this assessment form the most important
aspects of the measurement plan. The assessment has to be made like proposed to be able to draw
usable conclusions. The results of this assessment are important indicators for the deployment
strategy for Intelligent Navigation.
Integrity of Measurement
The integrity of the data is covered by their origin. Since both companies (probably) have
responsibilities against shareholders, they have to provide integer data. Therefore there are no
problems expected on behalf of the integrity of the information.
5.2 Risk Analysis

A risk analysis for the deployment of the intelligent navigation system has been made. This resulted
in twenty threats, of which five are considered the most important ones. The five highest rated
threats have been mitigated as risks. These are presented in tables 9 to 12. The complete risks
analysis is given in appendix C. The mitigation strategy of the risks is used to formulate
recommendations. This is the final step and is not presented in this section, but in section 5.3
(Deployment Strategy).
Red risk
Bad publicity decrease in sales
Consumers that are disappointed or caused damage by the system can harm the company by accusing them. Consumer
organizations can bring out negative reviews of the product. The consequence of this threat is that sales will decrease
caused by negative image developments.
The probability of occurrence is high because it happened to TomTom when they introduced their HD Traffic system. A
new company introducing a similar product on the market will draw attention as well. Any minor mistake will be enlarged
probably. The level of impact is high as well because image is very important for a company putting a system as this one on
the market. Any bad publicity therefore is very unlikely.
Mitigation actions
By whom
Control/avoidance
Test the system extensively
Development division
Avoidance
Publicity campaigns
Marketing division
Control
Table 9 Risk 1: Bad publicity
Orange risk
Competitors maintain too big market share not enough profit
TomTom already has a similar product on the market and has the biggest market share at the moment. The goal is to
decrease their market share by introducing a new product with which own market share is gained. The threat is that this
will not happen and that TomTom maintains a too big market share. The consequence of this threat is that fewer products
are sold and it becomes a risk that TomTom rules the company out or takes it over.
The probability of occurrence is high because it is hard to compete with TomTom. They have competition from other
companies, but deal with this intelligently. They plan to take over TeleAtlas for example to implement in their operations.
This way they maintain their market share at a very high level. The level of impact is medium because doing business while
competing with TomTom is expected to be hard. But when TomTom gives attention to the introduction of intelligent
navigation, this is a signal that they expect competition from it.
Mitigation actions
By whom
Control/avoidance
Set price below HD Traffic
Board of directors
Avoidance
Publicity campaigns
Marketing division
Control
Product appraisal
Consumer organization
Control
Table 10 Risk 2: Competitors maintain too big market share
20
Orange risk
No possibilities for cooperation with phone company no dynamic traffic data
The traffic data should be collected using data from phone companies. If however, mobile phone companies are not willing
to cooperate in the project, the use of traffic data from mobile phones will not be possible. The consequence of this threat
is that traffic data has to be collected traditionally by other means. These means of data collection are inferior as
concluded in section 2.2. In the Netherlands this is only done for major roads, and outside the Netherlands even this
information is hard to retrieve.
The probability of occurrence is medium because a mobile phone company has to be willing to cooperate with a
navigation system supplier that is just new on the market. This phone company has got to have many customers as well,
for this gives the best result. The level of impact is high because when no mobile phone company is willing to cooperate,
the system has fewer possibilities for real dynamic exist. The service will thus be less attractive.
Mitigation actions
By whom
Control/avoidance
Contract companies like KPN
Board of directors
Avoidance
Search for other possibilities for
Development division
Avoidance
dynamic traffic data
Table 11 Risk 3: No possibilities for cooperation with phone company
Orange risk
System is too expensive no development / no sales
If the development of the system is too expensive, a higher selling price is needed to cover all the costs. A selling price that
is too high, without the need to cover high development cost is part of this threat as well. The consequence of this threat
is that the system will not be easily sold. If sales stay behind the net income for the company will be negative. Eventually
the product will not be sold anymore.
The probability of occurrence is medium because however the competition forces us to ask a lower price, the
development costs have to be paid for. It is hard to say what people would be willing to pay for the system. The level of
impact is high because if the consumer does not buy the system, it is not used.
Mitigation actions
By whom
Control/avoidance
Set price below HD Traffic
Board of directors
Avoidance
Publicity campaigns
Marketing division
Control
Table 12 Risk 4: System is too expensive
5.3 Deployment Strategy

The deployment scenario that was analyzed in the risk analysis is used to define a deployment
strategy. The risk analysis, and especially the mitigated ones, is addressed to the scenario. This way
the deployment strategy is more likely to be achievable. The strategy is built up of four phases; the
development, market introduction, one year objectives and future plans.
5.3.1 Phase 1 Development
The intelligent navigation system is focused on the improvement of efficiency of the transport
network as well as on disseminating real-time information to end-user. To improve efficiency of the
transport network, real-time information has to be disseminated to the end-user. The development
phase therefore has to focus on these functional elements the system has to contain. The system has
to be tested in order to prevent any errors in the second phase. Where an important step can be
made in the competition with TomTom is by making the system ready for Galileo already. Galileo is
not available yet, but will be in the near future. When the system is already equipped properly, this
will be an advantage.
In phase 1 it is furthermore important to build up a partnership with a big mobile phone company,
just like TomTom has done with Vodafone. The preferred provider for the Dutch market is KPN. For
foreign markets comparable companies should be selected as O2 in the United Kingdom and TMobile in Germany. The number of customers the provider has is very important. A higher number of
customers provides more traffic data and also gives more reliable results.
21
5.3.2 Phase 2 Market Introduction

Intelligent navigation will initially be introduced on the Dutch market, with expansion to the
complete Benelux within three months. The initial price will be set at 299, which is 100 less than
HD Traffic. This way an important step to compete with TomTom will be made. It is expected that
this price will be sufficient to cover the costs.
During the introduction period it is important to follow the market development very closely. If
demand for the product is low, marketing has to work harder in promoting the product. If demand is
high, production has to ensure the product stays available in shops. Any errors that occur in this
phase, despite testing in phase 1, have to be identified quickly. The errors have to be fixed. Also the
marketing division has to work hard to prevent a negative image.
5.3.3 Phase 3 Gaining Market Share
In this period al errors identified in phase 2 have to be eliminated. This way the product can be
assessed positively by consumer organizations. This will result in higher sales and increasing market
share. It is also important to eliminate these errors before going abroad.
After an introduction period of three months it is time to take the product abroad. The final market
for Intelligent Navigation is the European market. The main objective in this period is however not
primarily to globalize the product. It is just used as a mean to gain market share in comparison with
TomTom. Within one year after introduction a market share of 10% is aimed at.
5.3.4 Phase 4 Maintaining Market Share
When the aimed 10% market share in one year has been reached, business can continue properly.
The market share mentioned only counts for the Dutch market. The other markets have to follow
accordingly. Finally, five year after implementation a market share of 25% has to be reached. This
way, business can be continued and a takeover is less likely to occur.
It is assumed that this system will result in a product line that will evolve in the upcoming years.
Therefore a share of the profit that is made should be put in development programs. This is an
important aspect when competing with TomTom.
22
6 Road operator assessment

This chapter discusses the stakeholder assessment for the road operator. An impact assessment is
used to determine the impacts of the ITS system, in relation to the road operator (section 6.1). To
determine the impact of the system, choice modelling is used (section 6.2). And finally some
considerations about traffic modelling are mentioned (section 6.3).
6.1 Impact Assessment

Public authorities, in the form of the responsible institutes for mobility, have many interests in new
developments on the mobility market. The road operator (Rijkswaterstaat in the Netherlands) is the
institute that manages the road network and traffic. It monitors the network performance and
provides users with information like regulations, traffic conditions and external conditions (e.g.
weather). New systems may have impact on the way drivers behave on the road and therefore some
effects may be expected on traffic and thus the working of the road operator. Therefore an impact
assessment is made for the road operator (and government as responsible institution for mobility).
First the road operator as stakeholder is analyzed (section 6.1.1) and secondly the impacts are
analyzed using the Converge method. One impact (changes in route choice) is research even further
(paragraph 6.2). A choice model is made for choosing between two routes, based on a stated
preference questionnaire.
6.1.1 Road Operator as Stakeholder
The public authorities are assessed as an important stakeholder. Especially the road operator and the
government have, as public authorities, interest in a new navigation system. Table 13 gives an
overview on the results of de stakeholder analysis for these stakeholders.
Stakeholder
Interest
Actions
Road operator
Government

Get less environmental damage
Better traffic safety

React to developments and changes in
mobility
Subsidize new technologies
Subsidize new products
Make regulations for new products
Initiate and finance research on effects
(Cooperate to have wanted results)
Table 13 Summary stakeholder analysis for road operator and government
6.1.2 Impacts
The Intelligent Navigation system is expected to influence the route choices of drivers, especially in
unexpected situations. Because the system is able to inform (a part of) the drivers about the precise
current situation on the major part of the road network some impacts are expected:
Less delay for the users of the system and a more reliable prediction of the travel time and
time of arrival.
A part of the drivers is redirected around bottlenecks resulting in a different trip-pattern. This
has several impacts:
o Less traffic supply at bottleneck location because a part of the traffic is instantly
redirected. This is expected to reduce the problems at the bottleneck location
o The alternative routes which the system proposes may differ from the routes a road
operator has in mind
23
More traffic volume at alternative routes. Many of these routes are expected to be of
the secondary (underlying) network. This may encourage route choice behaviour that
is now known as rat run. This may cause unexpected delays at these alternative
routes and decrease in safety en environmental properties
The departure time choice may be influenced by the new system as improved information is
provided. This is expected to result in a more spreading of the peak hours (when the use and
impact are high enough)
The need for infrastructure based information systems decreases when many users have in
car information systems. The possibilities for the road operator and traffic manager to
manage traffic become limited. Possibly new methods must be found to maintain the
possibilities for traffic managing.
o
For this research one impact is assessed further; the expected change in route choice by drivers. It is
expected that drivers take a route on secondary roads more often because of the increase in
provided information.
Indicators
The first question is which indicator can be used to assess the impact of changes in route choice
behaviour and the increased use of regional roads. This in turn may have effects on safety,
environment and liveability around these alternative routes. Indicators for the level of use of the
secondary road as an alternative route, are mainly the intensities on these roads, and especially
changes in intensities. The difference in intensities is not a good indicator on its own, because many
other factors could influence this indicator. The requirement that an indicator must be able to reflect
clearly the related performance or impact is not necessarily met with this indicator. External effects
must therefore be excluded. This must be kept in mind when selecting a data collection method.
Reference Case
The reference case is the current situation where no navigation systems exist which are able to take
traffic conditions into account for route choice on this scale.
Data Collection
For the assessment of the impact of traffic change to secondary roads, two main methods are
available. The first is monitoring intensities at the road in real life for example using induction loops
in the road. A disadvantage is that the results are location specific and may be influenced on many
other factors than the use of this new system. A better solution is to obtain the data from a route
choice model. This way the results on intensities can be obtained by modelling the change in route
choice and driver behaviour. A disadvantage of this method may be that the model is not good (for
various types of reasons) and the results may be false. A base for modelling the effects is research on
how users respond to the system and how they perform the route choice when using the system.
With a stated preference questionnaire a choice modelling research can be executed.
Conditions of Measurements
The data must have several properties to be useful for analysis. This results in some constraints for
the measurement methods. When a traffic simulation model is used for impact assessment the
guarantee must be given that the results are comparable and useful to real world situations.
Calibration and validation of the simulation model and measurements is thus very important.
Comparisons of the model data with real world measurements give probably the best results. When
only field measurements are used it is expected that many uncontrolled distortions exist in the data.
This is the reason that a preference lies by the use of a simulation model. Input for the traffic model
24
is knowledge about how drivers respond to the availability of the intelligent navigation system. The
choice model uses stated preference choices as an input. The most important condition is that the
investigated attributes are asked clearly to the respondent.
Statistical Considerations
Because a simulation model is based on a certain input, the errors in this input will work through in
the results. Statistical (error) analysis are then needed to give insight in this. Further it is better when
multiple traffic cases are modelled, because it gives more confidence in the fact if the results can be
used in real world situations. The same can be said for the choice modelling part. Research on which
attributes are needed and knowledge about the sample conditions are important.
Measurement Plan
For reliable results the set up of the model is very important. The simulated conditions must be
chosen wisely and for calibration and validation it is important that the conditions in the simulation
correspond to some real life cases. A time plan is not very important because this is on less influence
on the results when using a simulation. The input for the choice modelling is best measured using a
stated preference questionnaire.
Conclusion assessment plan
The impact on use of secondary roads can be measured using a traffic model with a choice model as
input. The choice model is made using discrete choice modelling techniques with stated preference
questions as input. The next section will discuss the choice model that is made for this impact
assessment. Paragraph 6.3 discusses the method how the results of the choice model can be used in
a traffic simulation.
6.2 Choice modelling

The impact assessment showed that there are several possible impacts to be expected when a
system like Intelligent Navigation is deployed. To quantify one of these impacts, an attempt is made
to model the behaviour of users using a discrete choice model in Biogeme1. This chapter discusses
the set up of the model, the input and analyzes the results. Main target for the modelling is to:
determine which attributes influence the route choice drivers will make when they are
confronted with an alternative route by the navigation system, using discrete choice modelling
With this information can, in theory, be modelled what the effects on traffic will be when the system
is used by a part of the drivers.
6.2.1 Setup
The choice is being made to confront a person with a choice situation in which that person must
make a choice between two routes. The first option is the standard route which is originally
proposed by the navigation system, and the second option is an alternative route which is faster
because a delay occurs on the standard route. There are many attributes expected to be of influence
on this choice, but it is not possible to research all possible attributes. The main reason for this is the
amount of input that is needed to have significant results for all attributes. Therefore a choice is
Biogeme (Bierlaire's Optimization Toolbox for GEV Model Estimation) is an object-oriented software package
designed for the maximum likelihood estimation of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models. (Biogeme, 2008)
25
made to use only four attributes. The attributes which are expected to be of significant importance
are:
x1: Trip length

x2: Delay of the standard route
x3: Extra length (distance and time) of the alternative route
x4: Use of secondary roads
Other attributes that may be of importance are the purpose of the trip, the need to be on time, the
reliability of the information, familiarity with the neighbourhood, the cause of the delay, etc. The
choice for the chosen attributes is based on the expected significance and the possibilities for getting
useful input. The attribute trip length is used to research the effect of different trip lengths on
choice making. The trip length can be described in terms of distance or travel time. There is not an
expectation for the influence of this attribute on the choice making. The attribute delay standard
route describes the influence of the amount of delay on the standard route. It is expected that an
increase in delay on the standard route results in an increase in the choice to use an alternative
route. Because different trip lengths are used, the delay is not an absolute value but a percentage of
the original travel time (see trip length).
The use of an alternative route means in most cases a longer route (in terms of distance). This may
also influence the choice making as time saving decreases with an increase in length and the costs
may also increase (more fuel consumption). The attribute extra length of the alternative route is
modelled to add a relative distance to the distance of standard route. It is expected that an increase
in length of the alternative route, the willingness to take the alternative route is decreased. Finally it
is analyzed whether the use of secondary roads in the alternative route matters for drivers. It is
expected that drivers are less likely to chose for an alternative route when it uses small, regional
roads in an area the driver is not familiar to. When the alternative route uses highways or other
primary roads it is expected that the user will choose for this alternative more.
Utility Functions
Discrete choice modelling is done using utility functions. These functions describe the relation
between the attributes and the choices that are made. With the four described attributes the utility
function for the standard route (SR) and alternative route (AR) will look like:
= 1 + 1 1 + 2 2
= 2 + 1 1 +
+ 3 3 + 4 4
(1)
(2)
With the analysis of observations, the xs can be estimated and a prediction can be made about
choice behaviour. The observations are made in controlled conditions, a stated preference
questionnaire, to assure the reliability of the observations. To limit the complexity of the choice
modelling only two or three values per attribute are used. Table 14 shows the attributes, their values
and the coding for the utility function in Biogeme.
Attribute
x1: Trip length
x2: Delay standard route
x3: Extra length alternative route
x4: Use of secondary roads
Value 1 (description)
-1
-1
(+5min)
(2km, 2min)
Value 2 (description)
0
(20km, 15min)
0
(+15min)
0
(5km, 5min)
0
(NO)
Value 3 (discription)
1
(60km, 40min)
1
(+30min)
1
(15km, 15min)
1
(YES)
Table 14 Attributes, coding and description
26
Data collection
A stated preference questionnaire is needed to acquire data for this discrete choice modelling
research. In theory there are four attributes with each two or three possible values, thus 2 2.32 = 36
possible combinations to ask in a questionnaire. By choosing the combinations smartly the number
of questions can be limited to twelve choice situations for the respondent. Because the user needs
assessment gives us the knowledge that user prefer information about delay times, time savings of
alternative routes and extra distance in absolute numbers this information is displayed in the shown
choices. Thus the relative attributes are rewritten for the questionnaire in absolute numbers related
to the trip length. Figure 9 shows an example of a choice question. To be sure that all respondents
answer the question with the same background a situation description is also given before the
questions are answered. This is also shown in figure 9.
Situation Description:
Imagine yourself driving on a highway. You have an appointment (for instance a business meeting
or visiting family. You are not very familiar in the region. The navigation system alerts you that
there is a delay on your current route and proposes an alternative route. This alternative routes
has a longer distance, but has a shorter travel time because of the delay on the standard route.
Besides that, this alternative route may use secondary (regional) roads. Which route would you
prefer?
Standard Route
O
Travel Distance:
20 km
Normal travel time: 15 min
Extra travel time:
+5min
Alternative Route
O
Travel Distance:
25 km
Travel time:
17 min
Time saving:
3 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Figure 9 Example of choice question with the situation description
The attributes in the alternatives in the shown example are coded for the use in the choice modelling
application Biogeme. The code for this example is shown in table 15.
#
1 - sr
1 - ar
Attribute x1
0
0
Attribute x2
0
-
Attribute x3
0
Attribute x4
0
Attribute x5
0
Table 15 Coding example
A questionnaire is made with twelve choice situations. Also some general questions are asked.
Before the situations are asked, the general driver behaviour of the respondent is asked with two
questions: How often do you use the car? and Do you have experience with navigation systems?.
At the end of the questionnaire the respondent is asked to give short feedback on the choices he or
she has made. With Did you find it difficult to answer previous questions? And why? some insight
can be obtained about the method of reasoning of the respondent. The questionnaire is distributed
online as was the first questionnaire (Thesis tools, 2008) and is given in Appendix D.
Questionnaire results
In total, 49 useful responses are collected. These respondents made 581 choices in twelve different
situations. Most people drive less than one time a week (figure 10) en most people have experience
with navigation systems (figure 11).
27
Figure 10 Car use of respondents
Figure 11 Experience with navigation system
Before the choice modelling is executed a short analysis of the data is done. figures 12 to 14 show
the distribution of the choices over the four attributes.
Figure 12 Choices by trip length
Figure 13 Choices by delay
Figure 14 Choices by time saving
Figure 15 Choices by road type
The preference for the alternative route seems to increase extremely when the delay at the standard
route increases (figure 13) or the time saving of the alternative route increases (figure 14) as could be
expected. A conclusion for the other two attributes cannot be made so easily. It seems that there is a
slight preference to stay at the standard route when the trip length increases and that if the
alternative route is a regional road that respondents prefer the alternative route. Especially this last
statement is strange (one would expect the opposite), but this can be explained by the type of
questions. The choice modelling with Biogeme gives better relations between the attributes.
Thirty percent of the respondents said that they found it difficult to answer the questions. Most
heard comment is that it is difficult to choose between expected time saving and the use of regional
28
roads, especially when the time saving is small. No response on this feedback leads to the conclusion
to exclude the results of a respondent from the analysis.
6.2.2 Biogeme Results
Using Biogeme and the stated preference results as input, a choice model is made. Biogeme
calculates the Alternative Specific Constant (ASC) which describes a preference for an alternative,
and the attributes parameters which describe the influence of the attributes on the choice making.
The results are shown in table 16, using the model-layout as described in formulas 1 and 2.
Name
ASC1
ASC2
1
2
4
5
Description
Standard route (sr)
Alternative route (ar)
Trip length
Delay at sr
Extra length ar
Use of secondary roads
Value
0.00
1.42
-1.25e-014
-4.67
-2.75
-0.82
t-test
6.59
-0.00
-10.35
-7.75
-3.15
Table 16 Results Biogeme modelling
The results show that there is a preference for the alternative route, but this is not legitimate
because the questions are set up to have only faster travel times for the alternative route. The values are more interesting. The first conclusion that can be made is that the length of the trip (x1,
1) does not influence the choices (the value of 1 is practically zero and no t-test can be executed
for this attribute). This is in contradiction to the apparent results of figure 12, where a minor
preference seems to exist for the standard route at long trips. The delay (2) is an important attribute
for choosing the alternative route. Increasing the delay makes drivers choose the alternative route
more often. The same counts for the influence of the length of the alternative route (4). If this
length increases, the willingness to use the alternative route decreases. The last conclusion that can
be made is that there exists a small aversion towards the use of regional roads (5). This is also in
contradiction to the first analysis in figure 15.
The final choice model becomes:
=
4.67 2
= 1.42 2.75 3 0,82 4
(4)
(5)
but it is not possible to write the results as an absolute function of the attributes. This means that the
parameters are only useful for the values of x2, x3 and x4 that are used in the model. The probability
of the use of the standard (SR) and alternative route (AR) can be calculated with:

= +
and
= +
(6)
But again it is not possible to use it universally for random distances and delays, only for the values
used in this research. This deficiency could be fixed when relative changes of distances and delays
were used in the modelling. Because the distance of the trip doesnt play a role in the decision
making, relative changes can be used. This is therefore a recommendation for future research.
29
6.3 Traffic modelling

The driver behaviour that is modelled in the previous section can be used for the modelling of traffic
where a part of the drivers have an intelligent navigation system. This research, unfortunately, is too
limited to investigate a complete traffic model but this section discusses some possibilities and
recommendation for the modelling of traffic using the discrete choice model.
The use of intelligent navigation can have an impact on different stages of travelling. The main
improvement is the increased access to accurate, up to date information about traffic conditions.
Drivers are used to rely on experience and general expectations about their planned trip, but with
the new system they are completely informed about all traffic conditions allowing these drivers to
optimize their individual routes. This may influence the time a trip is made (e.g leaving later because
traffic conditions are bad) and the route that is taken. Also changes in destination may occur but it is
expected that this effect is minimal. To model the changes in time and route choice the traffic model
must be able to take these parameters into account. For the route choice changes the discrete choice
model can be used.
A possibility is to alter the assignment method of a model by reassigning the trips that use Intelligent
Navigation according to the route choice behaviour that is modelled with the choice modelling. For
instance, when the effects of a car accident on traffic is researched. The part of the drivers that use
Intelligent Navigation are immediately informed about this event and some of these drivers respond
to the new situation according to the findings from the choice modelling. The changed route choice
can then be modelled by reassigning this part of the drivers.
The possibilities for modelling traffic effects of the navigation system should also be able in dynamic
traffic models. Dependant on the use of Intelligent Navigations, already assigned cars can be
modelled to change the desired route. Research of Hussein Dia & Sakda Panwai (2007) shows that
drivers indeed are willing to change routes but the research also indicates that socio-economic
characteristics of the driver, the degree of familiarity with network conditions and a certain delay
threshold associated with each individual are important in the willingness to use an alternative route.
This can be used as remarks for future research.
30
7 Conclusion and Discussion

In this research the development, deployment and assessment of a new navigation system is being
worked out. This new navigation system, Intelligent Navigation, is able to take very detailed
information about traffic condition into account for route computation.
The design of the new system is the first subject of research. By comparing all different options for
every system component the best solution for using traffic data in navigating is acquired. The
properties of the interface are analyzed in the user needs assessment. The preferences of users for
information type and interface communication types are assessed using a questionnaire. The results
show that there exist many different preferences for interface lay-out so the interface is designed in
such a way that it can be changed according personal preferences. The default settings are set to the
preferences of the majority of the respondents.
The deployment of a new system is not without risks and influences many stakeholders. A
stakeholder analysis is made and for two stakeholders even further assessment is being done.
Because the deployment of a new system is very important for its success a deployment strategy is
worked out. As an input for this scenario a market assessment is made including a risk analysis of the
deployment. The competitor TomTom is defined as a big risk. They maintain a big market share and
are an aggressive player on the market. By producing the Intelligent Navigation system cheaper than
TomToms HD traffic, by being superior in human machine interface and because better route
information is provided it is thought that the Intelligent Navigation system can compete with other
navigation system manufacturers.
The risk control and avoidance focuses on the main system, but there could also be other solution
which is not addressed to in this research. One possibility is the development of a system primary for
businesses with special features like the calculation and processing of traffic costs declaration,
agenda function and synchronisation, external access (for instance by the assistant) or the use
Intelligent Navigation on smart phones. By providing additional services to certain groups the
product becomes more interesting than other systems. Another option is the increased cooperation
with other companies. The cooperation with the mobile phone company is necessary for the good
working but there exist many other companies which are interested in cooperation.
The third major subject of the research is the impact assessment for route choice behaviour. Because
the system can take up to date traffic conditions into account some impacts are expected on the
route choice behaviour of users. A choice model is made and resulted in some conclusions. The
modelled choice is between a standard route and an alternative route which is longer but faster
because of a delay at the standard route. The choice modelling research had some limitations
because only four attributes are investigated; trip length, delay at the standard route, extra length of
the alternative route and the use of secondary roads. Research of Hussein Dia & Sakda Panwai (2007)
shows that reliability and socio-economic characteristics also influence the outcome of route choice
behaviour. The outcome of the choice model can be used for modelling the effects on traffic. Some
suggestions are made for the set up of such a traffic model. Effects are expected on departure time
and route choice. A model must be able to address to these steps to be useful for traffic modelling.
Unwanted effects like the increased use of regional roads can then be analyzed. These effects are
31
unwanted, because an increase of regional road use will result in less safety, decreased sustainability
and environmental damage.
The major problem with the two questionnaires is that the target group was hard to reach. The
group of respondents is limited to respectively 100 and 50, which is kind of low. Also the
characteristics of the groups are pretty student alike. The real target group actually is the driver
which is in his car every day, or at least more than ones a week. Therefore the results of both
questionnaires have been used in the research and design, but with caution. An exact image of the
user needs and choice modelling has not been achieved, but with common sense, this has been
taken into account.
Looking at the whole project it can be concluded that the development and a good deployment of a
new product are very difficult. Different assessment methods are very important for resulting in a
high quality product. The users are, as the target group, one of the most important stakeholders and
a good assessment of their needs is crucial for the success of the navigation system. From a more
business point of view, the deployment strategy regarding competitor TomTom is very important.
Also the cooperation with a mobile phone company for the collection of traffic data is one of the first
steps towards success.
32
8 Literature
Caceres, 2007
Deriving origindestination data from a mobile phone network, University of

Seville, Spain, march 2007
ESA, 2007
Websource: http://www.esa.int/esaNA/GGGMX650NDC_galileo_0.html,
European Space Agency, visited November 27th 2007
ERTICO, 1998
X. Zhang (ERTICO) & P. Kompfner (ERTICO), september 1998, Guidebook for

Assessment of Transport Telematics Applications: Updated Version, version
3.2
Gaillet, 1999
J.F. Gaillet et al., may 1999, Constraint analysis, mitigation strategies and
recomendations RAID, Transport Telematics System Architecture, version 4
Rijkswaterstaat, 2007 Road Safety in the Netherlands, Key Figures, Ministerie van Verkeer en
Waterstaat, Rijkswaterstaat, Adviesdienst Verkeer en Vervoer, april 2007
Biogeme, 2008
Websource: http://transp-or.epfl.ch/page63023.html, visited Jan 2008
Thesis tools, 2008
Websource: http://www.thesistools.com, visited Jan 2008
33
Appendixes
34
Appendices
A.
B.
C.
Appendix A: System Description ................................................................................................... 36

A.1
Traffic Data ............................................................................................................................ 36
A.2
Traffic Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 36
A.3
Traffic data communication & receiver................................................................................. 38
Appendix B: Questionnaire 1 User Needs .................................................................................. 40

B.1
First questionnaire................................................................................................................. 40
B.2
Results - Correspondents characteristics ............................................................................. 41
B.3
Interface design ..................................................................................................................... 43
Appendix C: Risk Analysis .............................................................................................................. 46

C.1
Step 1: Risk identification ...................................................................................................... 46
C.1.1
Deployment scenario .................................................................................................... 46
C.1.2
Threat assessment ......................................................................................................... 47
D.
Appendix D: Questionnaire 2 Choice behaviour ........................................................................ 51
E.
Appendix E: Responsibilities indication ......................................................................................... 54
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A. Appendix A: System Description

This appendix discusses the background information for the system choice for the traffic data
components. First the properties of the traffic data itself are analyzed. The second section discusses
the collection methods and the third section discusses the communication types with the
corresponding data receivers.
A.1 Traffic Data

Traffic conditions can be described in many different ways. The final method should match the user
needs. Because these needs are not assessed yet an overview is given of the most likely used data
content. In order to use traffic data for improved route choice the data must have some qualities:
Reliable
Up to date
Compatible (with the system)
Complete
Efficient (small data size)
Easy to collect
The content of the traffic data can be of various types. A choice has to be made according three
important properties of the data:
Spatial resolution this will define if only highways are taken into account or also
secondary and urban roads. The ways the data is collected will also depend on the wishes
for the spatial resolution
Definitions of traffic condition types this is used to make a choice on how the traffic
conditions are defined. There are several possibilities for example in terms of delay, traffic
speed, relative traffic speed to the maximum speed or I/C-relation. A choice on this
attribute will also affect the data collection method.
Refresh rate the third important property is the refresh rate. It tells how often the
information is renewed and thus how up-to-date the data is. A higher refresh rate will give
better information but more information must be sent to the navigation system. The
refresh rate is also limited by the collection method.
All three properties are important for the quality of the data. Combined with the properties some
criteria are available to choose for the type of data and the way this traffic data is collected.
A.2 Traffic Data Collection

Collection of traffic data can be done in many different ways. There are three types for data
collection, namely infrastructure based, vehicle based and driver based. Infrastructure based data
collection can be done using induction loops or video detection systems. Infrastructure based data is
mostly collected and processed by the road operator. An advantage of this method is that the data is
often of high quality and relatively fast available. A disadvantage is the amount of data is huge and
thus the processing effort what is needed is high. Another disadvantage is that most of the time only
highways are equipped with sensors while secondary (regional) roads are not. This way the spatial
resolution is not high and the possibilities for good route choice are limited. Another option is the
use of vehicle based sensors. Examples of this type of data collection are probe cars (for example
already used on cabs in some cities) or using the navigation systems as sensors. Both options need
communication from the vehicles to a central server which can be a disadvantage. An advantage is
that there is no dependence on road operators as a source for the data and with enough sensors
(probe cars or navigation systems which can give feedback on their location and speed) also the
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secondary roads can be used. This is also a disadvantage, because enough cars need to be equipped
to get reliable data.
The third option is the driver based sensors. This is not, as one would expect, that the driver tells its
location and speed, but something which is largely used by the drivers, the cell phone. Mobile
phones can be used for acquiring traffic data. For this method the fact that all cell phone (that are
switched on) are connected to the closest antenna is used. Because cell phones are in movement, it
is necessary for the service provider to be able to track these in order to find the antenna to which
the phone will connect. This way the cell phone user has always the best possible signal and at the
lowest signalling costs possible. This tracking of the cell phones can also be used for another purpose
as drivers in cars often have their cell phone switched on. Combining the data from several users and
filtering the data for cell phones that are expected to be in a car, an estimation can be made on
traffic conditions. Especially mean speeds (and thus grades of congestion) can be acquired using this
method. Many researches has been published relating to this matter. Especially about the filtering of
the data to take only those cell phones in consideration which are in a car and the reliability of the
data. He resolution of the data depends on the area one antenna operates. In urban areas a radius of
200m can be achieved up to a 5 20km cell radius in rural areas (Caceres, 2007).
One advantage of this method is that minimal additional components are needed for the individual
drivers. A central server must get access to all GSM-connection data and must process this to
estimate traffic data like mean speed at all roads. The spatial resolution is likely to be high because a
mobile phone is on board of the most vehicles and most heavy traffic is expected in urban areas with
small antenna areas (thus high resolution). Different types of traffic conditions can be defined using
the speeds of the cell-phones in relation to the speed limits. This way an estimation can be made on
traffic conditions in a number of degrees (e.g. light, medium and heavy traffic). A disadvantage is that
the methods to retrieve traffic conditions from this data are not always as reliable as one would want
to, but the method can give usable results for highways and most regional and main urban roads.
Table A1 gives a summary of the advantages and disadvantages of the possible methods for traffic
data collection.
Type
Infrastructure based (induction
loops, video systems)
Advantages
Easy to measure
No additional systems
necessary
Vehicle based probe vehicles or

feedback from the navigation
system
Driver based cell phone tracking
operator
when number of users is high
in own supervision
operator
High refresh rates possible
Good representation about
traffic conditions
Disadvantages
Only on highways (no regional
and urban roads)
Only available via road
operator (costly?)
Lower refresh rates because of
processing by road operator
Costly to have sufficient
number of probe cars
Also secondary roads can be
monitored
Instant communication
needed from probes
Central server needed for data
processing
Cooperation needed with
mobile phone provider
Privacy issues
Table A1 Summary of types of traffic data collection
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A.3 Traffic data communication & receiver

For this function a communication channel and a corresponding receiver are needed. There are
several combinations that can be used. Possible solutions for the communication channel are RDSTMC, TPEG and VICS. Pre-trip updates, radio broadcast, infrastructural based communication and
mobile phone systems are possible for the communication devices.
RDS-TMC is a channel which can broadcast TTI as data on FM transmissions using a Radio Data
System (RDS). It has a limited data transmission capacity. This limits the implementation of this
channel when a lot of (multi modal) TTI has to be transmitted. RDS-TMC uses a radio as a receiver. If
this radio has multiple frequencies, this improves the capabilities of the communication channel.
TPEG is a channel which provides more data transmission capacity. It uses all advantages of RDS-TMC
and improved on the aspects that were considered disadvantages. It is more aimed at the
multimedia broadcasting environment. TPEG can use different delivery technologies such as digital
audio broadcasting (DAB), or internet. The receiver for TPEG can be implemented in the navigation
system. VICS is the Japanese communication channel which has multiple methods for the distribution
of information. The problem is that it is proprietary. It is only known that it uses an FM channel and
radio and infrared beacons for the broadcasting of travel time information.
Type
RDS-TMC
Advantages
Infrastructure is already available
Cheap
TPEG
VICS
Flexible data lay-out

Designed for transmitting traffic
information types
Works good in Japan
Disadvantages
Limited possibilities for data
transmission
Low possible refresh rate
Japanese system (not

available in Europe)
Table A2 Summary of types of traffic data communication
For the data communication devices also a choice has to be made. The first possibility is to update
the navigation at home with an internet connection. This of course has as big disadvantage that no
update is possible during the trip, resulting in bad information. Another option is to use radio
broadcast. This is an easy to use communication possibility at the moment used for TMC broadcast. A
disadvantage is that is not possible to personalize and the bandwidth is limited. To address to this
problem the communication devices can be more location orientated using infrastructure based
communication devices like infrared or short radio transmission. This is costly to implement because
it must ne build up from scratch. Therefore it is not a realistic option.The UMTS (Universal Mobile
Telecommunications System) method uses mobile phones and their connection through UMTS
beacons to transmit data. It requires that all equipment is modified for UMTS operation and services.
The best communication device is the use of the mobile phone standards like GSM, GPRS or UMTS.
The information can be personalized and no large investments are needed in the systems
infrastructure as the mobile phone network is already available in most countries. The disadvantage
that there is a dependence on the mobile phone company is expected to be minor, because
cooperation is already needed for the traffic data collection.
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Type
Pre-trip update (internet)
Advantages
No additional communication
channels needed
Radio broadcast
Infrastructure already exist

Large communication area
Infrastructure based
communication (infrared, short
radio transmission)
Location based information

possible
Mobile phone (GSM, GPRS, UMTS)
Individual information possible

Possibilities to charge users
Universal system, can be used in
every country
Infrastructure already available
Disadvantages
Not available during the trip
Not up to date with longer
trips
Difficult to personalize
information
Available for everyone (no
possibilities to limit access)
Costly to make new
infrastructure
Difficult to implement
nationally
Costs for every data
transmission
Dependence on mobile
phone company
Table A3 Summary of types of communication devices
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B. Appendix B: Questionnaire 1 User Needs

This appendix discusses the design of the first questionnaire that is used to analyze the user needs.
First the questionnaire is displayed. The second section discusses the response and the third section
shows the analysis of the results.
B.1 First questionnaire

The following text boxes display the questionnaire which is used to analyze the user needs. The
questionnaire is made and distributed digitally using the web application www.thesistools.com.
Introduction
This questionnaire is about the use of a new navigation system (called Intelligent Navigation) which is being
developed. Navigation systems are being used in cars to inform drivers about possible routes to choose.
Traffic conditions are not being taken into account by present navigation systems. Traffic conditions however
are very important, because for example due to congestion, there often is a faster route than the normally
suggested one.
The questionnaire consists of two parts. The first part is about your personal situation and car use. The second
part is about your needs for a navigation system like this. Filling in the questionnaire takes about 5 minutes.
The personal data is going to be used strictly delicately and will not be used for any other purpose than is
described. They will be deleted after the research has been finished and will not be traceable.
Part 1. Your personal situation and car use.

Question 1. What is your gender?
a. Male
b. Female
Question 2. What is your age in years?
a.18 25
b.26 35
c.36 45
d.46 55
e. 56 or older
Question 3. What is your place of residence?
Question 4. Do you have the availability to use a vehicle yourself?

a. Yes
b. No
If yes, go to question 5, if no, go to question 7.
Question 5. How many days a week do you use the vehicle?
a. 0-1 day
b. 2-3 days
c. 4-5 days
d. 6-7 days
Question 6. What purpose do you use your vehicle for? (two answers possible)
a. Homework b. Business
c. Shopping
d. Recreation
e. Visiting family/friends
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Part 2. Your needs for a navigation system like Intelligent Navigation

The navigation system this questionnaire is used for is different from existing systems. Existing navigation
systems often give a standard route with expected travel and arrival time. In addition, Intelligent Navigation
can, with the use of traffic conditions, present real travel time. The system is capable of considering traffic
conditions on both major and minor roads when determining the fastest route. By doing so, it can calculate
routes that bypass traffic jams. This way you can get to your destination more quickly.
Question 7. Have you any experience with driving with the use of a navigation system?
a. None
b. Some
c. Much
Question 8. Do you think a system as described above is useful?
a. Very useless
b. Useless
c. Neutral
d. Useful
e. Very useful?
Question 9. How important do you think it is the system gives you the following information on a five point
scale from very unimportant to very important?
Standard route
Alternative route

Question 10. At which improvement level do you want the system to give an alternative route?
Travel time: a. any
b. minor
c. major
Distance:
a. any
b. minor
c. major
Question 11. How would you like to see the following information? (limited, completely, not at all)
Alternative route

Question 12. How would you like to hear the following information? (alarm sound, spoken text, not at all)
Alternative route

Question 13. How would you like to pay for the system?
a. Only purchase price b. Purchase price + pay per use
c. Purchase price + pay per period
Question 14. Do you have any questions or remarks about the system or the questionnaire?
You finished the questionnaire, thank you very much for filling it in.
B.2 Results - Correspondents characteristics

The questionnaire attracted 101 respondents in total. Thirteen responses were not useable because
of faults in the answering or aborted questionnaires. In total 88 respondents are used for the
analysis. Figure A1 shows some general properties of the respondents. In the analysis these
demographics are sometimes used to see whether there are differences between sub-groups.
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Figure A1 Demographic of the respondents (n = 88 for every figure)
The answer on the question if the respondent has experience with navigation systems is split further
to look if gender, car ownership or age influences the response. The results are visible in figure A2
Figure A2 Experience with navigation systems for different demographics (n = 88 for figures total)
These figure show that (from the response group), male have more experience with navigation
systems. Also car-ownership has a positive effect on experience with navigation systems, as could be
expected. Finally the third figure shows a slight increase in experience for the older group.
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B.3 Interface design

The second part of the questionnaire intended to give insight in the user needs for information
provision and interface characteristics. Figure A3 shows the responses on the question how
important different information types are for the respondent.
Figure A3 Response on desired information (n = 88 for every information type)
All of the attributes that were presented to the respondents appeared to be important or very
important for most of them, as shows the previous figure. The traffic conditions scores best, with less
than 10% considering this information (very) unimportant. The saved distance when choosing for the
alternative route scores worst, but is still considered unimportant by less than 40%. An improvement
in travel time was considered more important than an improvement in distance to be travelled. Also
the need to alert the drive of the presence of a better (alternative) route is investigated. The results
can be seen in figure A4.
Figure A4 Results of when an alternative route should

be remarked (n = 88 for both categories)
These results also show that travel time is considered more important than travel distance. Almost
25% of the respondents want to know the alternative route for every improvement. Fifty percent of
the respondent only want to know for a route with shorter distance, only when the distance greatly
improves. The interface has many possibilities for showing or let hear the information. Figure A5
shows the results of the questions asked to assess what the user needs are for information provision.
The results show that the need for information by audio is less than information in the screen of the
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navigation system. But for all information categories more than 50% wants to be alerted for this
information both visual and by sound.
Figure A5 Results of the way how the availability of information should be attended to the user (n=88 for every
category)
The last interesting results are two information types where there exist differences by gender or car
ownership. The left figure (A6) shows the difference between male and female for the question how
important they rate information about the expected arrival time of the alternative route. Almost 78%
of the female find this information important or very important while only 56% of the male
respondents share this opinion. Unfortunately the number of respondents is too low to prove
significance. For information about traffic conditions (right figure) there seems to be a difference for
respondent with and without a car. Car owners rate this information type more important.
Figure A6 Difference in desired information for male and female and car ownership (nmale=61, nfemale=27,
ncar= 53, nnocar=35)
After this analysis the properties of the interface are determined. The following aspects will be
initially designed to be present for the user:
Displayed standard
Standard route

Alternative route
Table A4 - Interface properties
They initially will not all be designed to be presented the same way. The aspect on the left will all be
standard displayed in the main screen. The traffic conditions that are shown, are traffic flows and
speed limits. The aspects on the right will only appear if an improvement in travel time could be
made. The level of improvement is initially set at 10%, but can be changed manually. Standard the
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saved travel time and expected arrival time of this route are given by spoken text if asked for.
Manually the other aspect can be chosen as well as another way of presentation. Audio, either alarm
sound or voices, is put in the system as an option. All options can be changed according to personal
needs in a menu using the touch screen.
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C. Appendix C: Risk Analysis

The RAID approach has been developed to identify and mitigate threats for an ITS system. The
approach consists of three steps. The first step described the deployment scenario and identifies the
risks involved. The second step defines mitigation actions for the most important risks, and the third
step formulates recommendations. Only step one is presented in this appendix, the other two steps
have been given in the main report (section 5.2)
C.1 Step 1: Risk identification

The risk analysis follows a scenario based approach in order to be able to define proper mitigation
actions in relation to the context or the environment. Therefore the deployment scenario has to be
determined before the analysis can be started with. When this scenario is clear, the threats that
come along with it can be identified.
C.1.1 Deployment scenario
The deployment scenario consists of four elements; the geographical scope, the main trends for ITS
development planning, the level of cooperation, and the time horizon. Another important part of the
deployment scenario is the relation of Intelligent Navigation with the HD Traffic developed by
TomTom. This has been taken into account when determining the four elements below. The
deployment strategy which is being determined after the risk assessment will discuss this more in
depth.
Geographical scope
The final geographical scope of the system is the complete European infrastructure network. First
however the scope will only be the Dutch network. The reason for choosing this scope is that the aim
of the project is to put the Intelligent Navigation system aside the HD Traffic system. This system
operates on the Dutch network as well and will be expanding to the United Kingdom in the near
future. Since most of the popular navigation systems operate internationally, the scope has not many
other options than do the same.
ITS development: trends, services
The Intelligent Navigation system is focused on the improvement of efficiency of the transport
network as well as on disseminating real-time information to end-user. The improvement of
efficiency of the transport network is focused on by distributing traffic more evenly on the network.
To be able to distribute traffic this way, real-time information has to be disseminated to the enduser.
Level of cooperation (public-private)
The project is executed completely by parties in the private sector. First there is the company that
develops the system, next there are the component producers and the information provider. At first
this information is delivered by both a telecom provider and the road operator. This is to calibrate
the accuracy of data provided by the telecom provider. After this calibration period, only the telecom
provider will deliver the real-time information.
Time horizon
Because the Intelligent Navigation system will have to compete with the HD Traffic system by
TomTom, it will be hard to gain market share. Therefore 10% market share is aimed at within one
year after implementation of the system. Than five years after implementation a marker share of
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25% has to be reached in order to have sufficient funds to continue business. The market that is
meant here is the market for the concerned system. It is assumed that this system will result in a
product line that will evolve in the upcoming years. Therefore a time horizon of five years becomes
relevant.
C.1.2 Threat assessment
Considering this deployment scenario, the threats can be identified. A list of threats is composed and
each of them is assessed. The assessment consists of a description of the threat, its consequences,
probability of occurrence, and level of impact. Combining the last two aspects results in a rating. For
the red and orange rated risks a mitigation strategy is presented in the main report. A complete list
of all the threats is given below.
1. Hardware fails system not used
The hardware that is put in the system could fail due to some different causes. There could be a
virus, a manufacturing failure, or a loss of power. The consequence of this threat is that the system
will not be used, because it does not work. Eventually, if this happens too many times, bad publicity
will harm the product and or company.
The probability of occurrence is low since hardware failure is not every day business anymore. A lot
of systems depend on hardware and that is why hardware has such high performance. The level of
impact however is high, because when the system does not function, it has no use. The objective is
that the system is being used after all.
2. Software fails system used wrongly / not used at all
The software that is put in the system, and updated regularly, could fail due to some different causes
as well. This failure could be caused by a design fault, or a virus that gains access. The consequence
of this threat is that the system will not function at all, or function incorrectly. Incorrect use of the
system could be a result, which is a threat on its own.
The probability of occurrence is low for the same reason that applied for hardware failure. Although
software failure occurs a lot more than hardware failure, it still does not happen often. The level of
impact is high again as well, but maybe even higher. Software failure does not always lead to system
failure; it can lead to changes in the system as well. It for example can give wrong information.
3. Energy supply fails system shuts down
The systems energy supply could be cut off. The connection to the in-car battery could be lost, or the
in-car battery could run out of power itself. The battery of the system itself could run out of power as
well. The consequence of this threat is that the system shuts down and the user cannot use the
system any longer.
The probability of occurrence is low because to become a problem for the system, both external and
internal energy supply would have to fail at the same time. The level of impact is medium because
the user can easily change the internal battery. The external energy supply can be recharged easily as
well. This threat does no bring permanent damage to the system.
4. Receiver gets wrong GPS position system calculates wrong route
The system uses GPS data to determine the present location of the vehicle. This is the origin from
where the navigation system calculates a route. The GPS position the system receives could be
missing or wrong for some reasons. The consequence of this threat is that the system cannot
calculate a route or it calculates a wrong route.
The probability of occurrence is low because GPS is a very stable application. If the connection with
GPS is made, it can be wrong some meters. Any bigger divergence is unlikely. The level of impact is
high because the basic objective of the system is to help drivers navigate. If the assumption of the
route is based on a wrong present position, it cannot present a proper route.
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5. System has wrong maps system does not function correctly

The system uses maps to determine the route from a point of origin towards a destination. These
maps could be wrong or outdated. The system could be using the maps in a wrong way as well. The
consequence of this threat is that the system is unable to navigate and cannot function correctly.
The probability of occurrence is medium because the maps used by navigation systems are not
always updated that well. The chance maps are wrongly updated is smaller. The level of impact is
medium, because it can give a lot of irritation to the driver. They assume they are buying a modern
system, but still the system does not function correctly.
6. Access to maps fails system does not function correctly
The system uses maps to determine the route from a point of origin towards a destination. Access to
these maps could fail because of an internal or external error. The consequence of this threat is that
the system is unable to navigate and thus cannot function correctly.
The probability of occurrence is low because the maps are integrated in the system and an important
segment of it. The communication lines between the several segments are very unlikely to fail. The
level of impact is medium because the driver will get a warning. This way the user is informed about
the error. He will however be disappointed his device does not function correctly.
7. System is too expensive no development / no sales
If the development of the system is too expensive, a higher selling price is needed to cover all the
costs. A selling price that is too high, without the need to cover high development cost is part of this
threat as well. The consequence of this threat is that the system will not be easily sold. If sales stay
behind the net income for the company will be negative. Eventually the product will not be sold
anymore.
Probability of occurrence is medium because however the competition forces us to ask a lower price,
the development costs have to be paid for. It is hard to say what people would be willing to pay for
the system. The level of impact is high because the system is not used.
8. System offers only limited benefits for user system is not used
If the system offers only limited benefits for users, they will not use the system any longer and advice
other drivers not to buy the system. Essentially, if there is too less benefit, the system will be
considered useless. The consequence of this threat is that sales will decrease and fade away.
Eventually profit will decrease as well.
The probability of occurrence is low because all important elements are implemented. The features
other navigation systems have as well as the innovational dynamic aspect. The level of impact is
medium, because when someone would like another feature, this will result in disappointment.
9. Bad publicity decrease in sales
Consumers that are disappointed or caused damage by the system can harm the company by
accusing them. Consumer organizations can bring out negative reviews of the product. The
consequence of this threat is that sales will decrease caused by negative image developments.
The probability of occurrence is high because it even happened to TomTom when they introduced
their HD Traffic system. A new company introducing a similar product on the market will draw
attention as well. Any minor mistake will be enlarged probably. The level of impact is high as well
because image is very important for a company putting a system as this one on the market. Any bad
publicity therefore is very unlikely.
10. Competitors maintain too big market share not enough profit
TomTom already has a similar product on the market and has the biggest market share at the
moment. The goal is to decrease their market share by introducing a new product with which own
market share is gained. The threat is that this will not happen and that TomTom maintains a too big
market share. The consequence of this threat is that fewer products are sold and it becomes a risk
that TomTom rules the company out or takes it over.
BIJLAGEN
48
The probability of occurrence is high because it is hard to compete with TomTom. They have
competition from other companies, but are a very large and aggressive player on the market. The
tendency of TomTom is to be self supporting for all sub-systems. They plan to take over TeleAtlas for
example to implement in their operations. This way they maintain their market share at a very high
level. The level of impact is medium because doing business while competing with TomTom is
expected to be hard. If the moment comes where TomTom takes over the company it is a signal that
the company does pretty well. If however the company goes bankrupt, the objective is not reached.
11. Regulations brought up by public authorities adjustments needed
The system could not comply with instructions and regulations brought up by public authorities.
These instructions or regulations could for example be on the design of the interface. The
consequence of this threat is that the company will not get permission to sell the system on the
market or has to make adjustments before getting permission.
The probability of occurrence is medium because personal data from users is used in the system.
Regulations on this particular aspect as well as those for driving environments are eminent. The level
of impact is medium because public authorities can delay the process. If adjustments are needed,
this will cost time and money, but eventually the system will get on the market.
12. Differences between countries disaggregated implementation
The aim of the project is to eventually introduce the system on the European market. The threat is
that there are too many different regulations and characteristics between the countries for a
successful united implementation. The consequence of this threat is that a unified implementation is
not feasible and a disaggregated way of implementation is needed.
The probability of occurrence is medium because the market that is aimed for eventually is Europe.
And within the European Union, there are quite some differences. These do however disappear
every day. The level of impact is medium because they will probably delay the development and
implementation. The cooperation however is growing within Europe.
13. No cooperation with phone company no dynamic traffic data
The traffic data should be collected using data from phone companies. If however these companies
are not willing to cooperate in the project, this will not be possible. The consequence of this threat is
that traffic data has to be collected traditionally by the road operator. In the Netherlands this is only
done for major roads, and outside the Netherlands even this information is hard to retrieve.
The probability of occurrence is medium because a mobile phone company has to be willing to
cooperate with a navigation system supplier that is just new on the market. This phone company has
got to have many customers as well, for this gives the best result. The level of impact is high because
when no mobile phone company is willing to cooperate, the system has fewer possibilities for real
dynamic exist. The service will thus be less attractive.
14. System is used extensively congestion on alternative route
If the system is going to be used by every driver on the network, the possibility exists that everybody
gets the advice to take an alternative route. The consequence of this threat is if every driver follows
this advice, it is very likely that congestion will occur on that route as well.
The probability of occurrence is low because it is not expected that every driver on the network will
be using the system. And not every driver will be choosing the alternative route either. The level of
impact is medium because if it happens, new congestion comes into existence. Because of the
dynamic traffic information, this congestion is taken into account when planning new routes.
15. Users do not choose alternative route special function gone
If the system notices an alternative route that is better than the present proposed route, it proposes
the alternative route to the driver. The driver has the choice to follow the initially or the newly
proposed route. The threat is that none of the drivers will follow the newly proposed route. The
consequence of this threat is that the system is useless, because the main goal of it is not reached.
BIJLAGEN
49
The probability of occurrence is low because the second questionnaire that was held showed that
people are willing to change routes if it offers enough advantages. It is expected that this will be the
case in reality as well. The level of impact is medium because if people do not choose the alternative
route, they still can use the system. It looses however its special feature.
16. Access to traffic data fails special function gone
The system uses real time traffic data by using data from a mobile phone and road operator. Access
to this data could fail for some reasons. The consequence of this threat is that the function the
system is designed for does not function. The system will consequently be no different compared to
normal navigation systems.
The probability of occurrence is medium because the information comes from an external database.
Communicating with external databases could fail occasionally. The level of impact is medium
because if people can not choose the alternative route, they still can use the system. It looses
however its special feature.
17. Traffic data altered during communication wrong route calculated
The system uses real time traffic data by using data from a mobile phone and road operator. This
information could be altered during communication from the supplier to the system. The
consequence of this threat is that the system calculates less optimal routes and drivers are misled.
The probability of occurrence is medium because the information comes from an external database.
During the communication things can happen to the data that change its content. The level of impact
is medium because the data is updated every five minutes. Therefore if data is altered ones, the
system will notice.
18. Bad information given to driver driver is confused / bad publicity
The interface is designed to give the driver the information he needs. This information supply could
however be vague, or too complicated. The interface could give too much, too little, or no
information at all for some reasons. This would be due to bad design, different preferences among
users, or system failure. The consequence of this threat is that the driver is confused while driving.
Another consequence is bad publicity which causes fewer sales.
The probability of occurrence is low because all important elements are implemented. The features
other navigation systems have as well as the innovational dynamic aspect. Besides, all features
implemented in the system are considered important or very important in the first questionnaire.
The level of impact is low as well because all features can be shut down by the user himself.
19. Too much attention asked from driver accidents / bad publicity
The system is designed to assist the driver while navigating on the network. The system however
could be taking too much attention from the driver for some reasons. The consequence of this threat
is that accidents will occur, because drivers pay less attention to the other road users. Eventually this
will lead to bad publicity for the company.
The probability of occurrence is low because drivers are more used to be multitasking in their
vehicles. Most cars have a car-kit for mobile phones and most new manufactured cars have in-car
navigation systems as well. The level of impact is medium because accidents cause bad publicity. But
all features can be shut down by the user himself.
20. Vehicles already equipped with in-car navigation system no sales
The probability of occurrence is medium because most new manufactured cars have in-car
navigation systems. Cheaper cars however do not have this option standard implemented. The level
of impact is medium because it lowers the need for this system and thus causes fewer sales. It is
however a possibility to introduce the system as software as well. This would give the possibility to
offer it to car manufacturers.
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50
D. Appendix D: Questionnaire 2 Choice behaviour

This appendix shows the questionnaire that is used as input for the choice modelling.
Introduction
Thank you very much for participating in this questionnaire. It concerns a research about the way in which
drivers make a choice between two routes a navigation system proposes. The first two question are of a
general type. The next twelve questions each show two route possibilities with different characteristics; a
standard route and an alternative route. Try to consider the possibilities at each question before choosing one
of them.
Part 1. General questions.

Question 1: How many days do you drive a vehicle in an average week?
o
o
o
o
0 1 days a week
2 3 days a week
4 5 days a week
6 7 days a week
Question 2: Do you have any experience driving with a navigation system?
o
o
o
No, none experience

Yes, some experience
Yes, much experience
Part 2. Choices.
Now the second part of the questionnaire begins. Please read the situation description below carefully and try
to image it at each question.
Situation description.
Imagine yourself driving on a highway. You have an appointment (for instance a business meeting or visiting
family. You are not very familiar in the region. The navigation system alerts you that there is a delay on your
current route and proposes an alternative route. This alternative routes has a longer distance, but has a
shorter travel time because of the delay on the standard route. Besides that, this alternative route may use
secondary (regional) roads. Which route would you prefer.
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+5min
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Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
22 km
Travel time:
17 min
Time saving:
13 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
65 km
Travel time:
45 min
Time saving:
0 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
51
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+5min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+5min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+30 min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
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Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
22 km
Travel time:
17 min
Time saving:
13 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
65 km
Travel time:
45 min
Time saving:
10 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
22 km
Travel time:
17 min
Time saving:
3 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
70 km
Travel time:
50 min
Time saving:
5 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
22 km
Travel time:
17 min
Time saving:
3 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
65 km
Travel time:
45 min
Time saving:
25 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
25 km
Travel time:
20 min
Time saving:
10 min
Road use:
Only primary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
65 km
Travel time:
45 min
Time saving:
10 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
52
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
20 km
Normal travel time:
15 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Standard Route
O
Travel distance:
60 km
Normal travel time:
40 min
Extra travel time:
+15min
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
25 km
Travel time:
20 min
Time saving:
10 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
Alternative Route
O
Travel distance:
70 km
Travel time:
50 min
Time saving:
5 min
Road use:
Secondary roads
Part 3. Final questions.

This is the end of the second en most important part of the questionnaire. Two final questions are left.
Question 15: Do you think it was difficult to answer the questions?
o
o
o
No,
because .
Yes,
because .
Sometimes,
because .
Question 16: Thank for your contribution. Below there is some space for any questions or remarks:
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53
E. Appendix E: Responsibilities indication

Table A5 indicates the responsibilities for all subjects in the project. The person who had the main
responsibility for the content and the reporting are listed per section. This list only indicates main
responsibilities. In general good feedback existed between the two authors for all components of the
project.
Subject
Content
Management Summary
Kant
Preface
Beumer/Kant
1. Introduction
Kant
2. System Description
2.1 System Lay-out
Beumer
2.2. Components
Beumer/Kant
2.3 Architectures
Beumer
2.4 System Classification
Beumer
3. User Needs
3.1 User Needs (questionnaire)
Kant
3.2 Results
Kant
4. Stakeholders Analysis
4.1 Stakeholders
Kant
4.2 Stakeholders interests
Kant
5. Competitor Assessment
5.1 Market Assessment
Kant
5.2 Risk analysis
Kant
5.3 Deployment strategy
Kant
6. Road operator Assessment
6.1 Impact assessment
Beumer
6.2 Choice modelling
Beumer
6.3 Traffic modelling
Beumer
7. Conclusions and discussion
Beumer/Kant
Table A5 Indication of responsibilities
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Reporting
Kant
Kant
Kant
Beumer
Beumer
Beumer
Beumer
Kant
Beumer/Kant
Kant
Kant
Kant
Kant
Kant
Beumer
Beumer
Beumer
Beumer
54

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Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente

Displayed in case of unexpected events

Table 1 - Interface properties

Bad publicity for the system

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Enschede, Tuesday 5 February 2008

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Intelligent Navigation System Description ................................................................................... 7

User Needs .................................................................................................................................... 14

Stakeholders Analysis .................................................................................................................... 16

Competitor Assessment ................................................................................................................ 18

Road operator assessment ............................................................................................................ 23

Conclusion and Discussion ............................................................................................................ 31

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

2 Intelligent Navigation System Description

2.1 System lay-out

Traffic Data Receiver

Figure 1 System Lay-out

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Traffic Data Receiver

Table 2 Component and data description

Displayed in case of unexpected events

Table 3 - Interface properties

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Vehicle based probe vehicles or

Driver based cell phone tracking

Table 4 Summary of types of data collection

Flexible data lay-out

Japanese system (not

Table 5 Summary of types of traffic data communication

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Infrastructure already exist

Location based information

Mobile phone (GSM, GPRS, UMTS)

Individual information possible

Table 6 Summary of types of communication devices

Data collection and processing

Location of mobile phone

Mobile phone tracks

Data processing, route calculation and information provision

Route & Directions

Route & Directions

Figure 2 Graphical representation of the physical, communicational and functional architecture

2.4 System Classification

Figure 3 Layer Model

3.1 Questionnaire One User Needs

Figure 4 Respondent characteristics (n=88)

Figure 5 Respondent characteristics (n=88)

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

3.2 Questionnaire Results

Figure 6 Desired information (n=88 for every attribute)

Figure 7 How to see the information?

Figure 8 How to hear the information?

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer

Suppliers of hardware and software for the internal system components

4.2 Stakeholder Interests

Internal hard- and software

Develop new technologies

Sell new products

Get better network performance

Road safety association

Lobby for drivers interests

Intelligent Transport Systems 2, University of Twente | Group 4 K. Kant & S. Beumer