DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Mon Jun 28 19:38:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 88.98-89.47 87.95-89.77
EUR/USD 1.2250-1.2344 1.2207-1.2397
AUD/USD 0.8663-0.8759 0.8593-0.8780
NZD/USD 0.6990-0.7107 0.6943-0.7148
GBP/USD 1.5016-1.5128 1.4958-1.5390
USD/CHF 1.0814-1.0895 1.0740-1.0941
USD/CAD 1.0315-1.0371 1.0295-1.0412
EUR/JPY 109.51-110.88 108.84-111.01
EUR/GBP 0.8118-0.8174 0.8000-0.8237

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with bearish bias on weaker investor risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge up
1.65% at 29), modest Wall Street losses (DJIA off 0.05%, S&P off 0.2%) as G20 weekend
pledge to cut budget deficits dimmed prospects for global economic growth. USD/JPY also
undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields, lingering effect from downbeat
Fed assessment of U.S. economy last week and Friday's revised-down 1Q U.S. GDP data;
ongoing euro zone's debt problems. But USD/JPY losses tempered by USD demand for import
settlements. Data focus: 2330 GMT Japan May household spending, May labour force survey,
2350 GMT Japan May preliminary industrial production, provisional trade statistics for 1st 10
days of June, 1300 GMT U.S. April S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, 1400 GMT U.S. June
consumer confidence index. USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics
bearish, although latter at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/JPY trading near-term.
Support at 89.04-88.98 band (yesterday's low-May 20 reaction low); breach would expose
downside to 87.95 (May 6 low), then 87.33 (Dec. 9, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 89.47
(yesterday's high); breach would temper near-term negative outlook, targeting 89.77 (Friday's
high), then 89.98 (Thursday's high), 90.58 (Wednesday's high) and 91.10 (June 22 high).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by negative risk sentiment,
concerns about liquidity shortfall as banks' repayment of over EUR440 billion in 1-year funds to
ECB Thursday looms, lingering worries over euro-zone debt & fiscal woes. But EUR/USD
losses tempered by positions adjustment ahead of quarterly close. Data focus: 0810 GMT euro-
zone June retail PMI, 0900 GMT euro-zone June business climate indicator & economic
sentiment indicator. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned
bearish near overbought. Support at 1.2250 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to
1.2207 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2163 (June 15 low) and 1.2043 (June 11 low). Resistance at
1.2344 (hourly chart), then at 1.2397 (yesterday's high); breach would reinstate near-term
positive bias, exposing upside to 1.2490 (June 21 high), then 1.2638 (55-day moving average)
and 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
AUD carry trades on lower risk tolerance, softer commodity prices (CRB spot index ended down
2.08 at 263.53 yesterday), lingering concerns about further China tightening, Europe's debt
troubles. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie-U.S. yield gap. AUD/USD daily chart mixed
as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought. Support at 0.8663 (hourly chart); breach
would expose downside to 0.8593 (Friday's low), then 0.8580 (June 16-June 17 lows), 0.8564
(38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from June 8 low of 0.8086 to June 21 high of 0.8859)
and 0.8503 (June 15 low). Resistance at 0.8759 (hourly chart), then at 0.8776-0.8780 band
(yesterday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook toward positive,
targeting 0.8832 (June 22 high), then 0.8859 (June 21 high) and 0.8915 (100-day moving
average).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
NZD carry trades on reduced investor risk tolerance, softer commodity prices, concerns about
further China tightening, Europe's debt troubles. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi-U.S.
yield advantage, expectations RBNZ will hike rates by 25 bps at its July review. NZD/USD daily
chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish near overbought; inside-day-range
pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.6990 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to
0.6943 (June 17 low), then 0.6926 (June 16 low), 0.6883 (June 15 low) and 0.6799 (June 11
low). Resistance at 0.7107 (hourly chart), then at 0.7148 (yesterday's high) and 0.7157-0.7162
band (Friday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would reinstate near-term positive bias, targeting
0.7199 (May 12 high), then 0.7295 (May 10 reaction high) and 0.7325 (April 30 top).

GBP/USD - to consolidate. Pair undermined by decreased investor risk tolerance, concerns over
negative impact of fiscal tightening on UK economic growth; but losses tempered by lingering
effect from last week's well received emergency budget, BOEs Sentance's comments that UK
rates should be increased, GBP demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT UK
May BSA savings & mortgage lending figures, May M4 lending. GBP/USD daily chart still
positive-biased as MACD bullish, while stochastics stay elevated at overbought, suggesting
sideways or higher GBP/USD trading near-term. Support at 1.5016 (yesterday's low); breach
would expose downside to 1.4958 (hourly chart), then 1.4854 (Friday's low, matching 55-day
moving average), 1.4800 (Wednesday's low) and 1.4686 (June 22 low). Resistance at 1.5128
(yesterday's high, roughly matching previous base set April 28); breach would expose upside to
1.5390 (April 30 reaction high), then 1.5498 (April 26 reaction high) and 1.5523 (April 15
reaction high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair supported by broadly stronger USD
undertone; but gains tempered by unwinding of short-CHF carry trades on waning investor risk
tolerance, CHF demand on weak EUR/CHF cross which hit record low of 1.3329 yesterday.
Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold. Resistance at
1.0895 (hourly chart), then at 1.0941 (yesterday's high, near 100-day moving average); breach
would expose upside to 1.1046 (Friday's high), then 1.1068 (Thursday's high), 1.1138
(Wednesday's high) and 1.1164 (55-day moving average). Support at 1.0814 (yesterday's low);
breach would reinstate near-term negative bias, exposing downside to 1.0740 (May 3 reaction
low), then 1.0697 (April 27 low) and 1.0611 (200-day moving average).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by diminished investor
risk tolerance, stronger global USD, weaker commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled down
61 cents yesterday at $78.25/barrel as worries over Tropical Storm Alex hitting Gulf of Mexico
faded), lingering concerns about Europe's debt troubles. But USD/CAD gains tempered by
expectations BOC will continue to tighten monetary policy gradually in coming months,
positions adjustment ahead of quarterly close. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May industrial
product & raw materials price indexes. USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in
bullish mode; negative MACD histogram bars contracting; 5-day moving average staged bullish
crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 1.0371 (yesterday's high), then at 1.0412 (hourly chart),
1.0442 (Friday's high) and 1.0469 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0517
(June 9 high), then 1.0612 (June 6 high), 1.0678 (June 7 reaction high) and 1.0746 (May 26
high). Support at 1.0315 (yesterday's low, matching 55-day moving average); breach would
temper near-term positive outlook, targeting 1.0295 (100-day moving average), then 1.0269
(Wednesday's low), 1.0178 (June 22 low) and 1.0133 (June 21 reaction low).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Cross undermined by unwinding of carry
trades amid subdued investor risk tolerance, euro zone's ongoing debt troubles. Daily chart
mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD still in bullish mode. Support at 109.55-109.51 band
(Friday's low-Thursday's low); breach would expose downside 108.94-108.84 band (June 10
low-June 9 low), then 108.32 (June 8 low), 108.06 (9-year low set June 7) and 106.76 (Nov. 8,
2001 reaction low). Resistance at 110.81-110.88 band (yesterday's high-Friday's high), then at
111.01 (Thursday's high) and 111.36 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 112.45
(June 22 high), then 113.41 (June 21 high), 114.16 (June 3 reaction high) and 114.40 (May 21
high).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting fresh 19-month low of 0.8118
yesterday. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at
oversold, suggesting sideways or lower EUR/GBP trading near-term. Support at 0.8118
(yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to psychological 0.8000, then 0.7807 (Oct. 21,
2008 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8174 (previous base set Thursday); breach would expose
upside to 0.8237 (yesterday's high), then 0.8274 (high on Thursday & Friday), 0.8287
(Wednesday's high) and 0.8368 (June 22 high).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)