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Author:
Mohammad Riazuddin
ZAD Research
Foreword
We have all been weary of the expansion of Central Bank balance sheets across the globe leading to
asset price appreciation and immersion of financial system in cheap liquidity. However, the front line
economic numbers seemed to support the monetary policies as growth, no matter how insignificant,
did show up in developed economies, whereas emerging markets continued to soar. We kept on
looking for cracks in developed markets, however the actual bubble was being created in developing
nations. The following chronology might be able to capture what appeared and what actually
happened behind the curtains:-
2001-2007
The Obvious:
Imminent drop in consumption in developing markets was captured and further bloated by weak
monetary policies leading to housing and consumption bubble.
In the Background:
Technology and cheap capital shipped high paying jobs and production to emerging markets. Export
led economic model flourished in Asia. Prime beneficiaries were China, Taiwan, India, Malaysia etc.
Emerging market also benefitted from capital flows emanating from US & Japan hence coining of the
term carry trade (borrowing in countries with low interest rates and investing in high yielding assets
in other countries)
2008-2009
The Obvious:
Financial collapse lead to chocking of western financial system, the epicenter of world economy.
Innovative monetary techniques used to reflate assets and spur demand. Massive doses of liquidity
injected in system to bolster economy
In the Background:
Meanwhile, China decided to restructure its economy to one based on consumption rather than
exports. It gave massive stimulus do domestic economies, lowered interest rates and opened up its
economy further
2009-2014
The Obvious:
The massive liquidity and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) elevated moods and stock markets coming
to rescue most if not all asset classes. The ones to rejoice most were the bankers followed by junk
raters (private companies, govt. organisations as well as bankrupt countries like Greece)
In the Background:
The liquidity war-chest opened in West and extreme east (Japan) went into hunt for yield beyond
their naturally preferred habitat (in terms of quality as well as region).
An infrastructure and capital asset bubble in East mostly Asia (pre-dominantly China)
Capital Investment as a %age of
GDP increased from 35% of GDP in
year 2000 to 48% in 2014.
50
48
45
40
35
35
30
25
20.7
22.6
20
15
Export
(Note: China became the largest Oil importer over taking US this May, 2015)
It also lead to economic superfluous in its major suppliers
China Trading Partners
Imports ($ Bn)
% of total imports
Nature
South Korea
190
9.70%
Electronics
Japan
163
8.30%
US
160
8.20%
Germany
105
5.40%
Vehicles
Australia
98
5%
Brazil
52
2.60%
Ores, Coal
Ores, Oil seeds
2015
All the above along with many other global factors culminated into something that we are seeing
today. The obvious and not so obvious scenarios are illustrated below.
1.
China survived the 2008 crash because private debt has been constantly close to 100% of GDP. It has however
increased by 80% of GDP in just 6 years and has reached a level where credit driven growth is extremely hard
to pursue further. It is eerily close to the levels seen by US and Japan before their collapse in 1990 and 2008
respectively.
Debt composition
Not only the size but composition of Chinese debt is also worrisome. Nearly half of Chinese debt is tied to
real estate
Even if the urbanisation rate were to increase by 10% (already 54%), it would result in a reduction of mere 2.6% in vacancy
rates. The mortgages tied to such homes totaled $674 bn. In addition to that, it estimated that there were 3.5 mn unsold
units in China.
Price to Annual
Income Ratio
3
2
1
2.5
1.8
2.2
2.1
3
2.7
6.5
2.3
2.2
3.6
4
2.8
Mortgage cost as % of
Income
299
295
188
218
371
231
224
182
147
303
138
137
95
75
207.4
The profits are huge. The Ministry of Finance claimed that land sales raised $438bn for Chinas local governments in 2012
alone.
Developers mandated to build early Most of the times the land parcel is far from inhabitation and lacking general
connectivity, social (Schools, universities, hospitals) and hard infrastructure (roads and rails). Then they are forced to build
something on it fast rather than gradually. This is to meet local govt. growth targets
Built (and sold) but no one moves in till they see semblance of civility, and social infrastructure developing
Housing bought with intention of moving deep in future if ever
Lack of economically affordable housing Such houses can be sold for not more than 3-5% over construction costs, but
developers are hardly interested in investing in such projects
Its in best interest of local govts. to slow migration into these newly built cities as once population arrives, social
infrastructure needs to be erected and made functional which costs local govt. Hence every city will need to go through
this ghost town phase
Capacity &
Infra Bubble
Property
Bubble
Stock Market
Bubble
100
80
56
60
42
40
30
20
Copper
Iron Ore
Steel
Chinese real GDP growth (if you really believe the official data) has only been at this level once
in past two decades
Leading brokerage houses commit $19 bn to invest in blue-chips under govt. duress of course
Finally reducing benchmark lending rate by 25 bps , fifth since Nov 2014, to 4.6% and reducing reserve
requirement for banks by 50 bps to 18%
Collateral Damage
Feeder and neighboring country markets corrected along with China
Major Indices
2m correction %
Australia
7.4
Brazil
17.9
Indonesia
14.1
Malaysia
8.6
S.Korea
11.7
Japan
14.0
Related currencies
AUD
1yr Dep. In currency % 22.3
95.0
90.0
83.6
85.0
77.7
80.0
75.0
74.9
70.0
65.0
64.4
60.0
AUD
IDR
MYR
Brazillian Real
IDR
16.4
MYR
25.1
Brazillian Real
35.6
To sum it up.
Slower China, Healthier China A hard crash is imminent for China. However, govt. debt is still not very high and
they still have certain ammunition to delay or spread out the pain. Like what they did on Tuesday (reducing lending
and reserve ratio). However there is no escaping from the slowdown. China is most likely to follow, albeit
reluctantly, the path lead by Japan and US in term of massive liquidity injection.
Countries that dependent on Chinese infrastructure boon (Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa etc.)
will suffer as they had extrapolated the Chinese demand and have invested heavily in capacity building to service
the Chinese demand. At such abhorrent levels of commodity prices, many such investments will go down and have
their respective ripple effect in their respective economies
Competitors China has jumped into the currency war by devaluing its currency by 2% last week and will be
forced to allow its depreciation further. This would further increase competitiveness of Chinese goods.
US Treasury sell-off Since US imports have dwindled China has stopped investing meaningfully in US treasuries.
However, to support it currency it might be forced to reduce it treasury holdings. China has sold of close to $180
bn in US Treasuries over past year.
Losses in China will extend the contagion to other emerging and developed markets which will again lead to delay
in Fed Rate hike. September will become very difficult as markets correct worldwide
Countries that compete with China for capital and have little or no fall out from China will stand to benefit the
most once the de-leverage and recoil completes and dust settles. India would stand as the best contender for
capital.
Thank You