November 19th, 2016

Jennifer Garcia, Interim Police Chief

625 Kleiber Hall Drive
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA 95616
Dear Jennifer Garcia:
We are thrilled to have finished our Feasibility Report on the Implementation of a Bike Rack or
Bike Lock Design to Reduce and Negate Bike Theft on Campus in response to our accepted
proposal on October 3rd, 2016.
Our feasibility report introduces two possible solutions to combat bike theft on campus. With the
increase in bike theft rates coupled with the fact that it is the number one crime on campus, a
response is required. In our report, we compare two possible solutions that prevent bike theft
across campus effectively and efficiently. The two solutions are a new bike rack design, equipped
with an RFID scanner and multiple chain locks, and a new bike lock design, consisting of a
strong cable lock with an alarm wire running through it. An RFID scanner would be used to scan
UC Davis IDs to lock the bike to the rack, improving security and campus identity.
Most bikes stolen on campus are properly locked per TAPS. Our focus was creating a lock with
the strength to resist or be impervious to cutting tools. We used many different research papers in
conjunction with tests conducted by UC Daviss own TAPS to find out the best types of locks for
our solutions, considering portability for the bike lock design as well. We used research into
cutting tools to determine the strength required for the bike locks to be viable. Using this
research, we compared the two solutions in terms of strength against bike theft tools to see which
withstood better in practice. We then decided that to prevent theft, the strength of the lock is not
all we have to improve, we would also reduce the likelihood a theft occurs. To do so, we
acquired research papers about theft based on location and type of lock. Comparing on campus
and off campus theft rates in addition to cable lock and chain lock theft rates led us to be able to
compare the bike rack design and bike lock design at a different angle. We also considered the
visible alarm on the bike lock design to reduce the likelihood of theft.
We researched the cost of short-term and long-term production for implementing the bike rack
designs and bike lock designs using numbers provided by production companies, UC Davis, and
the City of Davis. We measured the cost of each component in each design in addition to the
production cost and combined that with the number required annually to address the biking
population. For the bike rack design, the cost was a simple initial investment based on the
number of bike racks with almost no annual increase. For the bike lock design, we had to
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research biking percentages in both student and faculty in combination with increasing student
population to create a function for annual cost.
After rigorous research and comparisons of safety against theft, likelihood of theft, and cost, we
recommend implementation of the bike rack design to prevent bike theft on campus. The bike
lock design is more to benefit the students while the bike rack design heavily benefits the campus
itself, which is our focus. The bike rack design provides a long and sustainable solution to reduce
bike theft on campus to a near zero, as it creates a uniform security system across campus that is
impervious to cutting tools. The only ways it could be bypassed would be a corrosive agent, a
device that can bypass RFID scanners, or if a bike is not locked to the bike rack, which are all
extremely unlikely or not possible to prevent with our research. If any problems do arise, we are
confident that either our team or another group among the brilliant minds of the campus will find
a great solution, continuing the fight against bike theft across campus.
Sincerely,
Nir Ovadia

Jackson Rodriguez

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Feasibility Report on the Implementations of a Bike rack or Bike Lock Design to Reduce and
Negate Bike Theft on Campus

Prepared by:
Jackson Rodriguez, Nir Ovadia
University of California, Davis
November 21, 2016

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary - 5
Introduction - 7
Methods - 8
Results - 9
Conclusion -15
Recommendation - 16
Appendix - 17
References - 18

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Executive Summary:
Bike theft is a real and growing problem in Davis, California which results in 3,000 stolen bikes
and $650K in losses each year (Hong). Bicycling has become a fantastic alternative from
traditional motor vehicle travel in Davis. Bicycling can eliminate issues that car-drivers
potentially run into including mobility, overhead cost, and parking. Eliminating all of these
issues creates large benefits of owning a bicycle, regardless of cost. These benefits make owning
a bike a necessity and people will do practically anything in order to get themselves a bike. This
demand for the convince of a bicycle is a major reason that bike theft is so abundant in the city.
In the last five years, bike theft has increased 16.66% (Chirbas). As the theft rate has continually
grown, this is a problem that is too large to be ignored and needs to be addressed moving
forward.
Using Jimmy Fongs Bike Theft Analysis as well as the UCPD Annual Report, the difficulty of
bike security can be narrowed down to the current state of bike racks throughout Davis. The bike
racks are all a one-dimensional stand that provides no layers of security for a bike. In order to
add any level of protection to the bike stands, the bike user must provide their own lock. In
which case, if you use a cable lock you are six times as likely to have attempted theft on your
bike compared to other locks (Lierop). Yet, the limited ability to protect a valuable piece of
equipment can be changed with a simple adjustment to the utility of bike racks by adding the
ability to lock any bike within and also to protect with an alarm. Adding these new features to
bike locks not only provides difficulty in the theft but also develops public awareness in every
instance of attempted theft.
There are two possible lock solutions for bike stands that would attribute to the prevention of
bike theft. Both add layers of security for each stand and eliminate ease of theft drastically. One
of the solutions is to completely purchase new bike racks themselves that us a RFID scanner in
conjunction with an automated lock. This bike rack alternative wouldnt only add a layer of
security but would also enhance the type of lock by adding a personal RFID scanner. The RFID
scanner will be able to use any form of identification to lock and unlock the lock on the bike to
only the same person. The identification feature would be able to lower theft rates by selfmonitoring usage of the locks by different individuals.
Alternatively, another option to improve the current state of bike stands is to supplement the
current lack of security features on the lock with a trip wire bike lock that can set off an alarm
attached to the bike stand. This alarm will sound when the bike lock is tripped, notifying the
public that a bike theft is being committed. This second option creates public accountability and
can create an element of fear when stealing a bike.
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The solution of improved bike racks will reduce the tangible percentage of bike theft risk. With
new stands adding accountability to safety with alarms and locks, bicycles will become much
more difficult to steal. This increased difficulty not only disincentives this criminal activity but
makes the process of attempt much longer and more visible to the public. All of these factors
would create more security for every bike and also create security equality amongst all bikes
regardless of the locks that each bike user owns.
The implementation of these bike locks isnt too drastic, either. According to research, the
current bike stands cost can be broken down as follows - $500 RFID scanner, $600 bike rack,
and a $90 bike chain implemented onto 900 bike racks on campus. This total comes out to
roughly $1,125,000. An amount that is nearly double the amount paid by the Davis community in
loss bike property each year.
Alternatively, adding a lock to the current state of locks with a trip alarm on it can be broken
down financially understanding that it is approximately $10 a lock multiplied by the estimated
18,000 bicycles on campus. The total to add to this features would come out to about $180,000.
Adding bike locks with alarms to the current stands not only makes financial sense but also
provides an incredible amount of value to bicyclists in Davis. The effectiveness of the new
security solidifies the reasons that the upgrades should be made on all bike stands.
Regardless of what solution is chosen, there needs to be a difference made. Bicycle theft has
continually grown and there have been no changes or modifications that have made a difference.
These upgrades solve the problem of bike theft by an extreme and would absolutely make a
difference in so many lives within the community.

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Introduction:
This feasibility reports determines the optimal solution to prevent bike theft in Davis, concerning
mostly to the UC Davis Campus. The number of stolen bikes increases every year (Grow),
turning bike theft into the number one crime in UC Davis (Chibas). Bike theft prevention
specialists say The only line of defense[] is locking your bike, but demonstrated the ability
to cut even the toughest bike lock seen on the UC Davis campus in under two minutes
(Donofrio). If the only line of defense is so easily broken a new solution is required. Bikes are
used by 47% of the students and faculty at UC Davis, giving thieves plenty of targets. (<Reword. Save mention of number of thefts for later).
To prevent and ultimately eliminate bike theft on campus, we researched and reviewed two
possible solutions. The first solution would be a new bike rack design to be implemented across
campus. It would include an RFID Scanner and multiple chain locks that would be stronger than
normal as they would not be portable. The second solution would be a strong cable lock with an
alarm wire running through it. When cut, the wire would trigger the alarm and loudly proclaim
that a theft is taking place. To determine the optimal solution from the two, we researched
various studies and reports, including UC Davis Police Department Annual Reports, TAPS
surveys, and professional research papers about bike locks and theft.
We set up three criteria to help us evaluate the optimal solution. The first criterion was safety
against theft. The locks should be resistant to common tools, mainly bolt cutters and angle
grinders. Bolt cutters, the tool of choice for most bike thieves, takes around 30 seconds to break
through an average lock. Angle grinders, on the other hand, take only a few seconds but make a
tremendous amount of noise and light, making them unfit for populated areas. The second
criterion is the reliability of the bike lock. Reliability of the bike lock comes from two main
sources, cost to maintain and lifetime value. The locations well be reviewing will be on campus,
in the case of the bike rack solution, versus off campus, in the case of the bike lock solution. The
third criterion is the cost of producing each solution, based on the number of bike racks and
bikers on campus. The cost will cover both short-term and long-term aspects, to determine if one
solution might be more viable given more time. After much research, we evaluated the bike rack
design to be the best solution for the UC Davis campus to fight against bike theft. The following
sections explain our process in determining our conclusion through detailing our methods,
results, and recommendations on the matter.

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Methods:
This section describes the methods we used to determine the severity and scope of bike theft in
UC Davis, the process leading to our proposal of two different solutions against bike theft, the
process used to create three different criteria to measure the two solutions, and the procedure
used to compare the two solutions to find the optimal solution based on our criteria.
1) To determine the scope of bike theft, we researched Davis police reports to determine how
important bike theft is against other crimes. Then we used Jimmy Fongs yearly statistics to
calculate the increase in bike theft over the years. After identifying a rise in theft in the past
years, we used the UC Davis Transit Survey to determine the number of people that are
possibly affected by this problem, by measuring the number of bikers on campus.
2) To create two different solutions, we first identified the main factor that causes bike theft. The
biggest reason a bike was stolen was the strength of the lock. We then identified possible
materials and locking designs to counteract bike theft by strengthening the lock.
3) Our three criteria were identified after extensive research into bike theft. The three criteria
were safety against theft, the reliability, and cost in both short-term and long-term situations.
After evaluating that the strength of a lock is the main factor in bike theft, we decided a stronger
lock was necessary to combat bike theft. We determined the minimum strength required of a lock
using Bicyclings research into various locks and their resistance to theft. The reliability was a
major component in determining a long term choice. To find solutions to this criterion, we
researched various papers that went into detail about how anything from location to shape of the
lock affected the reliability of the lock. Our third criteria, cost of production, was chosen as the
solution had to be feasible to the campus. Due to the high value loss from bike theft, we chose
our benchmark budget to be the loss of value due to bike theft over 5 years. The length was
chosen to be a middle ground between short-term and long-term viability.
4)By comparing the importance of each criteria and the number of criteria the two solutions
fulfilled the best, we determined the solution that would solve the problem of bike theft most
efficiently and effectively.

Results:
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The following section outlines the scope of the problem, the two most viable solutions, the three
judging criteria, and a comparison of the solutions.
1.) Determining the Scope of the Problem
The City of Davis has had an increasing amount of
bike thefts reported in recent years. Raising
approximately 16.66 percent per year for the last
five years, approximately 3,000 bikes are stolen
each year (Fong). Bikes are in popular demand at
UC Davis as 47 percent of the population commutes
using a bicycle which correlates to the main reason
for theft (Kitaura).
Using Jimmy Fongs Bike Theft Analysis as well as
the UCPD Annual Report, a major reason for the
inclining bike theft rate was the lack of security
within bike stands throughout campus as well as
downtown Davis.
The current state of bike stands requires that
students provide their own locks to guard their
personal property with no further theft prevention.
Unlike cars, bicycles are not equipped with any selfmonitoring break-in or theft prevention which
makes bicycles more susceptible to theft. With the
growing dependability on bikes, it is in the citys best interest to provide security for the bicycles
of its citizens.
2.) Find the Two Most Viable Solutions
Taking a closer look at the reports provided by TAPS, UCPD, and Jimmy Fong we have
determined that if the city of Davis were to upgrade the current security of bike stands, security
measures would have to be drastically added in order to improve. A universal lock that could be
purchased among all students, doesnt provide one of a kind security. The current state of the
lack of locks on bike stands contributes to the increasing amount of bike thefts each year. The
strength of the standard bike lock is minimal and well below what should be considered to keep a
bicycle safe. In fact, 75 percent of bicycles stolen are properly locked (Hong). In addition, the
type of lock makes a difference, as well as a bike with a cable lock, is 6x more likely to be stolen
than a chain lock. Using this information, it is clear that not only the addition of locks are needed
to improve the current state of bike stands, but it also matters what kind of lock. This helped us
determine the two possible solutions that we had to consider were new bike stand that contains
RFID locks or new locks for the current bike stands that contained an alarm.
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RFID Locks:
One possible solution to the ease of bike theft would not only include adding locks to
bike stands but also improving the locks carried by the student. Common U-locks or
other locks can cut in a matter of 1-2 seconds using the appropriate tools which keep
these locks lightweight and mobile for those that need to use them (Donofrio). While the
RFID lock will make the locks specific to who is using them, they will also have a lock
that isnt required to be used at every possible location. Rather, a RFID lock will be much
thicker and require better tools and more time in order to break. The RFID lock will allow
anyone to use its security and can still provide the option of adding additional locks to
ensure safety.

Cable Locks:
The second solution would be to add another layer of defense to traditional locks.
Attaching cable locks to the current state of bike stands that have an alarm that
automatically sounds when broken provide an additional feature to locks and create a
wider general awareness for bike theft. This option also allows bike riders to add their
own additional locks to the stands and develops accountability to the public when
witnessing a bike theft.

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3.) Setting Criteria and Benchmarks

We determined three criteria to judge the quality of the locks to be the safety against theft,
chances of being stolen, and the cost of implementation.
a.) Safety against theft
For this study, safety against theft was the main priority because this is the problem that
we are trying to solve. The current baseline for this measurement would stand at no
security because we are measuring the safety against the threat of the bike stands.
Therefore, any improvements to the current state of bike stands would need to be
compared side by side as opposed to the current base of the bike stand. As a team, we
have developed two possible solutions that both improve safety against the threat by
adding locks to bike stands. Each lock provides a different level of security in order to
differentiate effectiveness. In order for the locks to be deemed effective in safety against
the threat, they must be an upgrade from the current bike stand. In doing so, we measured
which lock was caused higher rates of aversion in the theft.

Chains

U-Lock

180

135

90

45

0
Time (S)

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Cable

b.) Reliability
The second criterion we considered was how reliable to locks would be over time.
Making an investment in a piece of property that is intended to be broken can be risky.
Measuring the replacement cost, the value of the new locks and the ease of use were
heavily considered in this criteria. It is important that the investment made in new locks
pays off in the log run and eventually pays for itself in saved property. Each lock has a
certain life expectancy but rather replacing each product will be measured in order to
decide the best possible solution. The current benchmark for this would also be zero
maintenance which indicates high reliability.
c.) Cost of implementation
Lastly, we considered the cost of implementation for the possible solutions. With a price
point set, this can actually provide a tangible dollar amount that new bike locks need to
cost in order to see a value. In order for the locks to make financial sense for the city, the
total cost of implementation should be less than $650,000 which is the approximate
calculations for the cost of the missing property in addition to the resources used by the
police in order to try and return them. Keep in mind, any upgrades value would be
measured in the amount of money saved each year rather than the initial cost.
4.) Ranking the Two Solutions Based on Benchmarks
a.) Safety Against Theft
Solution 1: RFID Locks
Currently, the only form of bike defense is a user purchased lock. On average, chain locks
take about 3 minutes to break, U-locks take 1-2 minutes, wire locks take about 75
seconds to get through (Appendix A). Adding a RFID lock removes the need for mobility
within any lock and creates a much thicker chain lock that would be impervious to
standard cutters. In fact, the RFID locks used for this option are unable to be cut by any
instrument that doesnt require power. Unable to penetrate the lock, this is the ultimate
form of security in order to ensure that a bike can not be removed without appropriate
identification. This security completely removes the current issues of standard bike stands
and allows bike riders the peace of mind for leaving their bike. In addition, this will also
hold those who abandon bikes accountable as well as give an option for removal of
stranded bikes and create more spaces available.
Solution 2: Cable Locks
The second solution of cable locks provides the same security as a standard cable lock
with the addition of an alarm that sounds at when the cable lock is broken. The alarm will
sound notifying the surrounding area of the broken lock and alert those around of a bike
theft. However, the cable lock is a little bit easier to break into.While impervious to bolt
cutters, this cable lock would take about 75 seconds for wire cutter (Appendix A). While
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an alarm aims to hesitate people from stealing by creating accountable communities there
are a couple issues using this lock. The first, the locks will need to be frequently replaced
and in doing so will continue to cost money for every attempted break in. Also, if a bike
does happen to get unlocked, the theft has a means of escape and is not stopped
immediately at any point. While the alarm is helpful, it doesnt provide the same value as
an un-cuttable lock.
b. Reliability
Solution 1: RFID Lock
The RFID lock has many benefits in dependability. This is because a nearly unbreakable
lock doesnt need to be replaced, ever. In addition, the annual 3,600 thefts that occur on
campus will be listed down as a chain lock has a 19.9 percent chance of the attempt over
a U-Lock (Lierop). The dependability and durability of a bigger cable lock that is
accessible to all students makes the difference. Using an RFID lock would be
advantageous for all students as well as the city as it has the highest left of reliability.
Solution 2: Cable Lock
A cable lock is actually 5.5 times more susceptible to being stolen (Lierop). This being
the case, adding a visible alarm and a warning tag has also found to decrease theft by 80
percent (Lierop). Adding the additional alarm system would decreases overall theft
likelihood and provides cable locks with a new level of reliability. Cable locks, however,
are still susceptible to being broken into much easier. For that reason, we find that going
with RFID locks in this case scenario to be the best possible option.
c. Cost
Solution 1: RFID Lock
Using our calculations, the RFID lock would be the most expensive up-front cost. With a
total of $1,125,000 (Appendix B) of overhead cost, the RFID lock costs nearly double of
how much-stolen property occurs each year. With our benchmark set at $650,000 as a
sustainable amount. The RFID lock would pay itself off in a matter of two years by
saving property and allocated resources. Looking at long term costs, this benchmark
budget reaches out be $3,250,000 over 5 years. With virtually no maintenance costs, the
investment pays for itself over the long run.
Solution 2: Cable Lock
The cable lock comes in at much cheaper initial cost for starting at $180,000 and hits
underneath the budget. However, if you calculate based on student trends and the 2020
initiative project things change just a little bit. According to the equation: $205,000 +
2500 * e0.1t = $1,139,357 it would take the cable lock 60 years in order to have the
initial cost of the RFID lock. In understanding the budget as well as the benchmark
criteria, this would be the best possible solution.

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Conclusion:
Biking is a core aspect of the UC Davis community. Bike routes cover the campus and provide
quick access to many locations on campus. With half the population biking on campus, biking is
a common sight (Kitaura). Continuously increasing rates of bike theft, UC Daviss number one
crime, demands a solution to be found (Chirbas).
To prevent bike theft, we researched into two proposed solutions. A new bike rack design, and a
new bike lock design. The two solutions we evaluated on three criteria; their safety against theft
in terms of resistance to cutting tools, their likelihood of being attempted to be stolen, and the
cost of implementing the solution. The bike rack design performed better than the bike lock
design in only one of the three criteria tested, the safety of the bike. The bike rack design was
impervious to cutting tools, vastly overshadowing the bike lock design. The bike stand however
was more effective in reliability. The third criterion, cost, was evenly matched but the low yearly
cost of the bike lock design pushed it over the edge to perform better than the bike rack design.

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Recommendation:
Based on our three criteria, we recommend the implementation of the bike rack design
throughout the campus. Even though the bike lock design won out on more criteria, the fact that
the criterion of cost was so even coupled with the importance of safety of the bike over the other
criterion led us to choose the bike rack design as the optimal choice. Implementation of the bike
racks on campus should be done carefully, as bike racks are an integral part to the biking
community on campus. Production of bike racks should begin immediately to create the
necessary amount of racks, and when a break occurs in the school year the bike racks would start
being replaced. Replacement of bike racks would begin with the most used areas first to reduce
disruption when replacing the later bike racks.

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Appendix:
Appendix A: Interview with Natneal Kebede a UC Davis TAPS enforcement officer specializing
in on campus patrol.
Question: How would adding RFID locks change your job?
Answer: Adding RFID locks would be a great idea to ensure bike security but would ton TAPS a
sizable amount of money, I would assume. Well, you figure that we are in charge of keeping up
on transportation so we would be responsible for the upkeep on all of bike racks in order to
ensure that nothing is wrong with them. I mean they would have to train us, assign guys to focus
on the locks, and really keep up on it which would be a pain.
Question: Do you know how many bike racks are on campus?
Answer: There hasnt been any new installations that I know of and the last number that I was
positive of was 900 different racks all throughout campus.
Question: I have a couple of locks here, would you be interested in trying to break them and
recording the results?
Answer: Absolutely! On average, chain locks take about 3 minutes to break, U-locks take 1-2
minutes, wire locks take about 75 seconds to get through.
Question: So how difficult do you think it would be in order to keep up on an RFID system?
Answer: Honestly, it wouldnt be for us. There is no chance that we could add that skill to our
team. I would assume that you would have to hire an outside hire to keep up on that honestly.
Appendix B: Calculations made and pricing Index
Pricing Key
1.) RFID Scanner - $500
2.) Bike Rack - $660
3.) Bike Chain - $90
4.) Wire Lock - $10
Number of bike racks on campus - 900
Estimate number of biker population- 18,000

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1.) RFID Locks = (RFID Scanner) + (Bike Rack) + (Bike Chain) = ($500) + ($660) + ($90) =
$1,250 Per Lock
2.) Total Cost for Project = (((RFID Scanner) + (Bike Rack) + (Bike Chain)) * ( Number of Bike
Racks)) = ((($500) * ($660) * ($90)) * (900)) = $1,125,000 Total
3.) Total Cost for Wire Lock = (Wire Lock Cost) * (% of population that bikes) * (total
population = ($10) * (.47) * 38,000 = $180,000
4.) 205,000 + 2500 * e0.1t = $1,139,357 in 60 years
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Fong, Jimmy. "Appendix F: Bike Theft Analysis." Cityofdavis.org. Cityofdavis, Dec. 2013. Web.
<http://cityofdavis.org/home/showdocument?id=1041>.
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Cunningham, Taylor. "Clery Report Indicates Reduced Crime on UC Davis Campus." The Aggie.
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Holly, Aaron. College of Charleston: Assessment of Campus Bike Parking. Rep. College of
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Kitaura, Cody. "Transit Survey: 47 Percent Ride Bikes to Campus." UC Davis. UC Davis, 20
May 2016. <https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/transit-survey-47-percent-ride-bikes-campus/>.
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