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Damaging effects

MARC-ANDR FRANCHE PUBLISHED Mar 17, 2016 03:45am


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The writer is country director of UNDP in Pakistan.


THE year 2015 will be remembered for two landmark global agreements. In
September, UN member states endorsed the 2030 Development Agenda and the
Sustainable Development Goals. Later, 196 parties to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change adopted the Paris Agreement at the conclusion of
UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in France.
The year will also be remembered as the warmest on record with temperature rises
breaking the one degree Celsius milestone above pre-industrial era average. A heatwave
swept the globe including Sindh where 2,000 perished reminding us of the increased
intensity and frequency of climatic events and its growing impact on development,
particularly the poor and vulnerable.
It has been established that climate change is the consequence of Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) and is caused by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Synthesis Report of 2014 pointed to an increase in global temperature of 4C
contrary to the initial estimates of about 3.5C till 2100.
Developing countries are more vulnerable because of their dependence on agriculture and
socioeconomic dynamics including their weak capacities to cope with climate change. In
2008, more than 100 million people fell below the poverty line largely due to food price
hikes and low agriculture yields.
At the COP21 participating countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding
climate deal that promises a global action plan to save the world from the effects of
climate change by limiting global warming to 1.5 C.

Climate change is the reality of our times.

The COP21 agreement is indeed a diplomatic success. However, the intentions in the
Paris Agreement and actual commitments in the form of Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs) by governments dont connect. Estimates suggest that the
combined impact of all INDCs, if fully implemented, will account for 86pc of the GHG
emissions and will still result in global average temperature hikes above the 2C
threshold. Similarly, the intention of developed countries to mobilise $100 billion per
year until 2025 is not only insufficient but also uncertain to be realised.
Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country to climate change though it produces less
than 0.5pc of global emissions. Events like the 2010 floods which resulted in 2,000
human lives and economic losses equivalent to 7pc of GDP reconfirm that climate change
is the most immediate development threat faced by this country. There is a clear and
visible shift in summer monsoons trend from northeast to northwest by a range of 80-100
kilometres, threatening the agriculture sector. Frequency of other extreme weather events
like cyclones, droughts and glacial lake outburst floods show that Pakistan is becoming
increasingly vulnerable to climate change.
Pakistan is conscious to the threats. The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of
2012 outlines mitigation and adaptation actions. Pakistan is one of the few countries to
have undertaken a Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR) and has
established public expenditure and institutional benchmarks. Post 18th Amendment,
climate change has largely become a provincial subject and provinces must now take the
lead. It is encouraging to note that some of the provinces have already started initiatives
such as the Billion Tree Plantation initiative.
The deficit of vision and action remains widespread however. The INDCs put forward by
Pakistan for the COP21 were considered limited and devoid of quantitative commitments
and investment requirements for adaptation and mitigation. Using the CPEIR, Pakistan
could have spelled out in detail its vulnerability to climate change. This would have
afforded an opportunity to plead climate change-related needs in front of lobbyists,
donors and negotiators across the globe. Pakistan can still revise its INDCs.
It needs strong institutions to implement its NCCP. A whole of government approach
including parliament, finance, planning and sectoral departments is needed. The mediumterm budgetary frameworks of ministries should take into account climate changes
effects. The finance and planning institutions at the federal and provincial level should
track related expenditure and progress. Provinces must integrate climate change issues in
their growth strategies given its impact on poverty and social development.
Pakistan incurred $6bn climate change-related losses in 2012. It needs to invest 5.5pc of
GDP annually for mitigation and 1.5-3pc for adaptation to address its effects. For a 15pc
reduction in GHG, an annual investment of around $8bn is needed. Given the global
shortfall in financing, Pakistan requires an overarching climate change financing

framework which can help streamline budget allocations and ensure holistic response to
the challenge.
So far the evidence affirms that no one will remain untouched by the consequences of
climate change. Developing countries will be most affected. It is time to act together. As
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said, there is no plan B, because there is no planet
B.
The writer is country director of UNDP in Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2016

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Climate change a bigger threat than terrorism

THE NEWSPAPER'S REPORTER PUBLISHED Jan 16, 2015


06:29am
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ISLAMABAD: Climate change poses a greater security threat than terrorism


because it can affect temperatures, the environment, the economy and the future
policies of the country. Moreover, 70 to 80 per cent of Pakistans water from
glaciers, but in the next 30 to 40 years, there, may be no more water in the Indus
River because the glaciers will have all melted.
These remarks were made by Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhry, a former director general of
the Met Office and vice president of the World Meteorological Organisation, during a

presentation given to members of the Parliamentary Task Force on Sustainable


Development Goals (SDGs), chaired by MNA Mariyam Aurangzeb.
Dr Chaudhry said that Pakistan was 135th among carbon emitting countries and
contributed only 0.8 per cent to global carbon emissions. However, it is still included in
the eight countries most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change.
Unfortunately in our country, no government has given priority to the issue, even though
climate change is considered a major challenge at the global level, he said.

Former Met chief says Pakistan very susceptible to changes in temperature, weather
patterns; SDPI discussion encourages reforestation

A considerable increase in intense floods, rains, extreme weather and other climatic
changes has been noted in Pakistan. In the past the country saw well-distributed rains
due, leading to the ripening of crops at the proper time. Now, temperature increases in the
month of March cause ripening much earlier, reducing the yield of wheat and other
crops, he said.
He said that the world was using adaptive or mitigating measures to counter the
challenges of climate change. Through mitigation, carbon emissions are reduced, but that
is not an issue for Pakistan, he said. However, adaptive measures include steps that can
decrease the effects of carbon emissions, such as reforestation.
The US has agreed to a 26 to 28 per cent reduction in carbon emissions to below 2005
levels, by 2025. However, the EU says it will reduce its carbon emissions by 40 per cent
by 2030, bringing it back to 1990 levels, he said.
He concluded that the easiest solution to arrest climate change was planting more trees.
Climate Change Division Director Irfan Tariq told the committee that climate change was
both a threat and an opportunity.

Pakistan is one of the few countries which have their own climate change policies. If we
create awareness among the masses, that they can earn more by saving and planting the
trees, he said.
MNA Rana Afzal Khan said that although reforestation and climate change is primarily
the responsibility of provincial governments, due to the importance of the issue, the
federal government should take steps and resolve such problems, adding that most of the
local industry did not even know about carbon credits.
SDPI discussion
Meanwhile, experts at a discussion organised by the Sustainable Development Policy
Institute (SDPI) urged citizens to own their forests and prevent them from falling into the
hands of the timber mafia.
Speaking at Tackling Global Warming Through REED, experts warned that if corrective
steps were not taken, then country have to lose a large portion of its forested areas.
Local communities must be mobilised to take ownership of the forests, without which
little can be achieved on the ground, said forestry official Tariq Nazir Chaudhary.
Inspector General (Forests) Syed Mahmood Nasir said that in order to save trees, the
Ministry of Climate Change has signed an agreement with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change to protect forest and trees

Significance of climate change in Pakistan


SOHAIL AHMED PUBLISHED Mar 05, 2011 12:14pm
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We often read statements like climate change is a reality. What needs to be


clarified is the difference between climate change and global warming, both terms
which are sometimes used interchangeably. Being a sub-set of climate change, global

warming is a problem attributed to an increase in greenhouse gases due to industrial


activity, especially in the past two centuries. The climate change hype, however, is
not without controversy. In this blog post, it is endeavored to form an honest opinion
about the significance of climate change, specifically looking at Pakistan since it has
been listed as one of the vulnerable countries. This is especially significant as the
impact of climate change on Pakistan is very alarming, which can lead to multifaceted problems. It is necessary to understand that in addition to current data, prehistoric global patterns of climate changehave been researched and recorded. And it
is the departure from this natural pattern that the scientists are worried
about. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth
assessment report, AR4 2007, an increase of 0.6 degrees Celsius during last century
and a likely increase of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in the twenty-first century, is expected
despite necessary measures being adopted to counter its effects all over the world.
Although 186 countries signed the Kyoto Protocol in Bonn in 2001, countries such as the
US and Australia disagreed. The bone of contention is regarding the reduction of
anthropogenic, i.e., man-made, greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,
and SF6) by at least 5 per cent between 2008 and 2012. This is so because reducing these
gas emissions directly impacts their economy and development goals. The urgency of the
situation has been established by the fact that higher temperatures are being recorded
each year. We have observed unprecedented floods in Pakistan in July/August 2010
besides other unusual events and, in the southern hemisphere, Australia and Brazil were
in the grip of raging flood waters. Sense of concern shown during subsequent
Copenhagen Accord less than a couple of years ago and lately, the Cancun Agreement,
manifests the lack of interest and the lop-sided approach by various governments.
There are people who hold the opinion that man-made global warming is a physical
impossibility and attribute as an unnecessary fear. They believe that there are political
and financial motives. Names like Margaret Thatcher and Al Gore are often heard in this
connection for gaining political mileage. This group strongly disagrees that man has to do
with the unnatural rise in temperature and that polar ice and glaciers are melting in
accordance with natures plan. While the Himalayan glaciers may not melt completely in
the next thirty years, the occurrence does sound alarm bells. It is believed that in
countries such as Pakistan, Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan, the situation is ostensibly far
more challenging.
The important question for Pakistan is: How to interpret the phenomenon of climate
change? We need to understand what man-made change (largely caused by the developed
world) means to us. The sub-continent is densely populated with just a 5 per cent of the
area covered with trees and jungles. It comprises a vast area that has very high average
temperatures. Housing designs are such that earth surface heat radiation index stays high.
Also, it is surrounded by a large body of water i.e., the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal
and the Indian Ocean. Even a small increase in average temperature means large amounts

of heat content available can cause abnormal weather conditions leading to flash floods.
Thus an anomalous rise in temperature would raise the severity level in the area every
few years, with an increased frequency of occurrence.
In-depth knowledge in this regard is needed for the prosperity and health of the country.
We need to realise that extreme weather conditions will result in droughts, severe winters,
localised imbalance of oxygen-carbon dioxide percentages, underground water shortages
that will directly affect hydel power, food, agriculture, health and a host of other sectors.
Despite a raised awareness level in Pakistan, a cohesive approach is amiss. Besides
policy failure in the energy sector, deforestation is taking place at a rapid speed. There
have been numerous reports of tree-cutting at a rapid pace, in and around the large cities
of the country.
The good news is that people have started talking about climate change and are trying to
delve deeper into the underlying factors to look for solutions. Recently, a meeting was
held under the joint collaboration of the Environment Protection Department Punjab with
the Ministry of Environment and the UN One joint programme on National Climate
Change Policy Draft. The main focus was on the adaptation in accordance with the
climate change. A joint strategy by sharing knowledge and resources, not only at the local
but also at regional level for instance SAARC, would be extremely helpful in dealing
with abnormal departure from climatic variations. It is essential to revisit the minute
details of water treaties the country has made with India in light of climate change.
Pakistan has to continuously focus all aspects of climatic variations in order to harmonise
with correlated adaptability. Destruction of crops and livestock in a number of African
countries is a glaring example of lack of understanding such natural hazards in the
absence of a cohesive plan. We need to conduct research through a 3-D mapping of
underground water levels in the country and its flow from various directions, so that
underground water reservoirs and their status is known for optimum usage. The National
Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), in association with the concerned
departments, should be made responsible to spearhead all important scientific and
managerial activities to keep the country at par with the international standards.

Environment: The aftershocks of global warming


HAMID AHMAD MIR PUBLISHED Jul 31, 2016 07:15am

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For the past three decades climatologists have been raising alarms about global
warming and its consequences, and now geologists have also got involved in the
issue. Worlds renowned geologists are of the opinion that rapidly melting glaciers
will result in increasing number of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis.
This is based on the premise that ice is extremely heavy one cubic metre of ice weighs
almost one ton and glacier being a colossal sheet of ice exerts tremendous pressure on the
surface of the earth beneath their cover. When glaciers start to melt, as we are
experiencing today, pressure on the earths surface on which the glaciers are located is
reduced significantly. The lightening of load on the earths surface allows its mantle to
rebound causing the tectonic plates beneath to become unstuck.
According to Patrick Wu, a geologist at the University of Alberta in Canada, the weight
of thick ice puts a lot of pressure. This weight suppresses earthquakes, but when the ice
melts earthquakes are triggered. Wu goes on to say that many earthquakes that occur in
Canada today are related to this ongoing rebound effect that started with the end of the
last Ice Age some 10,000 years ago.

The melting of glaciers can lead to more earthquakes in Pakistan and around the world

In the face of present global warming, rapidly changing climatic factors and speedy
deglaciation the foreseeable rebound is expected to be much severe and faster. Experts
term this rebound Isostatic Rebound. This process reactivates the fault, increases the
seismic activity and lifts pressure on magma chambers that feed volcanoes.
Experts are also of the view that there are implications for parts of the world where
glaciers and active faults coincide, including the Hindukush, Himalayas, Alps, Andes, etc.
In Pakistan, in the Hindukush and Himalayan regions glacier melt due to climate change
coincides with active faults.

Andrew Hynes, tectonics expert at McGill University, puts forward another theory to
illustrate an additional relationship between glacier melt and earthquakes when he says
that increased glacier melt increases the concentration of fluid in the fault that lubricates
the rock, allowing the plates to slide.
An added phenomenon that needs to be kept in mind is that if glacier melt is reducing the
stress on earths surface in glaciated areas, it is also increasing the stress on seafloors due
to rapid influx of water.
The massive melting of ice might trigger earthquakes that are strong enough to lead to the
seafloor collapsing or and underwater landslide that in turn could generate a tsunami.
Melting of glaciers and the subsequent rise in sea level also means that previously
exposed continental margins become inundated with water.
Melting of ice in Antarctica is already triggering earthquakes and underwater seafloor
slides, says Wu. Although, at present, these events are not getting much attention, these
are early warnings of the more serious events that scientists believe will be experienced
in near future.
The glaciated areas in northern parts of Pakistan are quite vulnerable to such events as
they are not only heavily glaciated but are also located on tectonic fault lines. For the last
three decades the area is also experiencing rapid ice melt due to climate change. Climate
change induced disasters, like Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (Glofs) and riverine floods,
have become common features in the northern parts of the country. Call it a mere
coincidence or reality that for the same period earthquake events are also showing an
upward trend vis-a-vis the Glofs/floods.
The recent floods and earthquake events in Hindukush and Himalayan regions of
Pakistan are clear evidences of this correlation. Over a period of three decades the
frequency and intensity of both glacier-melt and occurrence of earthquakes in the
northern regions of Pakistan have increased. Apparently both seem to be directly
proportional to each other. During August 2013 alone, Chitral district and adjacent areas
experienced over a dozen earthquakes of above five magnitude. During December 2015
and first week of January 2016, District Chitral and adjoining glaciated areas experienced
over five devastating earthquakes.
In Chitral it has now become a common belief among the local communities that the
frequency and devastation of earthquakes in winter is directly proportional to the severity
and intensity of floods during the preceding summer. However, this myth of the local
communities needs to be evaluated and studied in detail.
Chitral is home to some 542 glaciers with an estimated volume of nearly 269 cubic
kilometres and alone counts for nine per cent of the total glacial or ice reserves of

Pakistan. According to experts from the field of environment, glaciology and hydrology
all glaciers of Pakistan will melt away completely by the year 2035.
As has been mentioned earlier, one cubic metre of glacial ice weighs almost one tonne. If
by 2035 all glaciers in Pakistan melt away, as has been predicted by experts keeping in
view the present melting rate, then it means removal of 269 billion tonnes of load from
the surface of the earths crust in Chitral alone.
The melting of glaciers in the district is quite evident from increased number of Glofs and
the ever increasing water flow in River Chitral (also known as River Kabul in the lower
course) for the last two decades. However, the phenomenon needs to be studied in detail.
The writer is a field officer at the Pakistan Glof Project in Chitral
Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, July 31st, 2016

Climate change concerns


EDITORIAL UPDATED Apr 17, 2015 02:15am
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Other facets of climate change, such as irregular rains and flooding, present their own
challenges and require a greater role for the state to upgrade forecasting capabilities and
hydraulic infrastructure. AP/file
A new study released by WWF-Pakistan has found that agriculture here could face
a loss of up to 10pc of its output by 2040 due to climate change.
This is a huge percentage, but fortunately the authors of the study also have some
suggestions on what can be done to mitigate this impact. Specifically, they point to
improved farm management practices such as better utilisation of water in irrigation,
tillage and agro-chemical input use.
They also suggest a public policy response, involving the creation of a large number of
field schools where knowledge can be disseminated to farmers to enable them to adapt to
the challenges coming their way.

Adaptive strategies of the sort mentioned by the study are very important for an agrarian
country like Pakistan when facing the multiple threats that climate change presents.
But one problem is that much of agricultural policy, and the power to create the
dissemination networks for adaptive knowhow, lies with the provincial governments. It is
crucial that the leadership at the provincial level start to awaken to their responsibilities in
preparing farmers for the challenges of climate change.
Resignation need not be the only response when facing such a huge challenge.
There are many steps that can be taken to improve crop yields and resilience to
temperature changes, and disseminating these techniques must begin soon since farmers
are slow to adopt new practices.
This is not a daunting task by any means, and there is still a window of opportunity to get
the ball rolling.
Other facets of climate change, such as irregular rains and flooding, present their own
challenges and require a greater role for the state to upgrade forecasting capabilities and
hydraulic infrastructure.
But those adaptive strategies that require farmers to adopt new practices to make their
crops resilient to temperature changes and increase yields will be slow in coming and
therefore require a much longer lead time.
The time to start undertaking that effort is now.
Published in Dawn, April 17th, 2015

..

Climate change: Pakistan's anti-climactic response


AAMIR SAEED UPDATED Jul 01, 2013 03:14pm
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Dr Pervaiz Amir, an environmental expert and member of the Prime Ministers Task
Force on Climate Change, says Pakistan falls in the most vulnerable categories of the

climate change but we are doing nothing to cope with the challenge. File/Reuters
photo.
At a time when developing and developed countries across the globe are investing
heavily in adaptation to and countering climate change, Pakistan has not only
dissolved its climate change ministry but also slashed its development budget by
more than 60 percent.
The government allocated a total of Rs58.8 million to combat climate change in the
Public Sector Development Program for 2013-14 as compared to Rs168.1 million
allocated to the climate change ministry in 2012-13. The ministry has now been
transformed into a division.
Environmentalists and officials say the move may have serious repercussions on different
fields in the country including agriculture, water and forestation besides losing
representation at international forums. International donors and organisations working on
climate change are also unlikely to support Pakistan in dealing with the relatively recent,
but highly dangerous threat.
Dr Qamaruz Zaman Chaudhry, a lead author of the National Climate Change Policy and
an expert on climate change, says Pakistan may face isolation in the international
community if it doesn't take effective measures to cope with changing weather patterns.
We need to link all our development activities like dams, roads, canals and bridges with
climate change; otherwise all the development may go waste, he observes.
At the moment, Pakistan receives around $3 million for a climate adaptation fund and
$3.5 million in Glacier Lake Outburst Funding through international aid. This aid is
peanuts, Dr Chaudhry says.
To cope with climate change, developed countries have established a Green Climate
Fund, for which the plan is to raise a hundred billion dollars per annum by 2020.
Unfortunately, Pakistan has no share in this, mainly because of its inefficiency in dealing
with the environmetal challenge.
We need to develop sellable projects and enhance our capacity to get our share from the
global fund; otherwise we may face regional and global complications, Dr Chaudhry
maintains.
According to the 2006 Pakistan Strategic Country Environmental Assessment Report, the
annual cost of environmental degradation in Pakistan has been estimated at Rs365 billion
($4.2 billion). Inadequate water supply, sanitation and hygiene account for Rs112 billion
($1.3 billion), agriculture soil degradation for Rs70 billion ($807 million) and range land
degradation and deforestation Rs6 billion ($69 million).

Environmental experts believe the annual cost of environmental degradation has now
reached around Rs450 billion ($5.2 billion) in financial losses.
The data available to Dawn.com reveals the annual rate of deforestation ranges from 4-6
percent while carbon dioxide emissions are increasing annually at the rate of 8-10
percent. Moreover, an estimated 250 million gallons of untreated water out of Karachi is
dumped into the Arabian Sea every day, causing great harm to both humans and the
ecosystem.
Recent data indicates that over one million acres of fertile, arable land in the Indus delta
has become saline and unusable, largely due to the retention of freshwater flows by large
dams across the Indus River.
Dr Pervaiz Amir, an environmental expert and member of the Prime Ministers Task
Force on Climate Change, says Pakistan falls in the most vulnerable categories of climate
change but we are doing nothing to cope with the challenge.
He says that India and Bangladesh have been spending a lot on addressing evolving
weather patterns, and are also receiving millions of dollars from developed countries in
climate change aid. India is spending over 2.6 percent of its GDP to cope with such
challenges. It is also one of the biggest recipients of climate change aid.
Pakistans allocation for climate change, meanwhile, is stuck at just 0.02 percent of the
total Rs295.5 billion of development funds.
Dr Amir laments that Pakistan is also losing its representation at international forums for
addressing this issue, mainly because of official apathy: Representatives from India and
Bangladesh effectively fought their case in the Bonn conference to seek international
funding but there was no official representative from Pakistan to present a case. It is
unfortunate.
He says the international community takes Pakistan as a non serious country and this
may lead to the countrys isolation at an international level. The government should
revive the climate change ministry and develop different viable projects to seek
international funding for them.
Dr Amir fears that Pakistan may also lose foreign investment in different sectors if it
doesn't express its willingness to deal with the challenges of climate change.
Transnational and multinational companies will prefer to invest in India, Bangladesh and
other developing countries, since the latter are investing heavily in their environment.
Pakistan launched its first National Climate Change Policy in February this year to cope
with the threats of climate change through adaptation and mitigation measures but has not
achieved even a single target so far. After the 18th Amendment, the environment ministry

has been devolved to the provinces. Now there is no cooperation between the centre and
the provinces to deal with the menace.
The provinces are only dealing with environment-related issues while climate change is
a vast subject and needs the attention of the federal government. The responsibility of
drawing international funding and investment in different sectors mainly lies with the
federal government, Dr Amir clarifies.
According to the National Economy and Environment Development Study 2011, Pakistan
needs around $6 billion to $14 billion for climate change adaptation measures while
mitigation efforts will cost around $7 billion to $18 billion dollars from now to 2050. For
this, the country needs to develop climate change related projects to get its monetary
share from the Green Climate Fund, since it cannot cope with these challenges from its
own resources.
Muhammad Khalid Siddiq, a joint secretary at the climate change division, told
Dawn.com that the Planning Commission initially approved their new projects for the
next fiscal year but later dropped them without explanation. The agreed-upon projects
with the commission were related to water sanitation, solid waste management and
curbing rapid deforestation in the country.
We will take up the issue of new projects with the government and seek funding for
them, he says, adding the dissolution of the ministry has also not sent a good signal to
the international community.
Numerous international donors and organisations working on climate change have
conveyed their annoyance over the decision and we hope the government will revive the
ministry for effective adaptation and mitigation measures on climate change.
Siddiq says the economic meltdown may have forced the government to dissolve the
ministry and slash funding but, they should have exempted the climate change ministry
because of its importance on the global level.
The writer is a freelance contributor. His Twitter handle is AamirSaeed_.
.

Climate change: The perfect storm


SYED MUHAMMAD ABUBAKAR PUBLISHED Jul 03, 2016 07:01am
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A clean and pristine valley


Once again, Pakistan is on the list of most affected countries from climate change.
Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based global risk consulting firm, has ranked Pakistan
22nd in the Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2016 (CCVI); three of its cities are
among the 69 considered most at risk from climate change including Lahore (on 7th
place), Faisalabad (22nd) and Karachi (25th).
While Pakistan was one of more than 170 countries that ratified the Paris Climate
Agreement on April 22, which aims to limit temperature increase to 2oC, and to strive to
limit temperature increase further to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels, much more needs
to be done by governments and citizens to mitigate the effects of climate change.
What can we expect?
Adil Najam, dean at Boston Universitys Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies,
has no doubt that climate change will continue to be one of the biggest threats faced by
Pakistan, unless we act to increase resilience. For Pakistan, the biggest climate
challenges are food production, agricultural productivity; disasters, such as floods and
heat waves; livelihood loss and most of all, water and energy. The solution is sustainable
development which is less polluting than the alternatives, he says.

Three of Pakistans industrial cities are at great environmental risk but government policy
doesnt reflect any urgency or understanding of the situation

He also highlighted the immediate steps to be taken. Its important to recognise that
there are a lot of things to be done for climate, which includes mitigation, as well as
adaptation. For example, improved energy conservation will not only be good for climate,
but even better for Pakistans energy and load-shedding woes. Preparations for adaptation
in agriculture and water sectors should be made in order to protect these from the impacts
of climate change.
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, the CEO of Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD)
Pakistan, also views climate change in the same context.

One of the challenges is to convince the policymakers and opinion leaders to deal with
climate change as a development issue rather than a scientific issue.
Dams and reservoirs must be built to fulfill the larger water needs for agriculture and
hydropower, while keeping an eye on ecological requirements. Also, the government
should evaluate the magnitude of disaster prone areas with hazard mapping and develop
land use planning accordingly along with the implementation of early warning and
emergency management plans for heat waves and natural hazards i.e. flash floods,
GLOFs [glacial lake outburst floods], landslides and avalanches in the mountain areas,
says Dr Daniele Bocchiola, assistant professor at Politecnico di Milano, Italy. In lowland
cities, he explained further, A surge in monsoonal storms, floods and intense winter can
affect people as well as agriculture and food security.
Intense de-glaciation, and the forming of new glacial lakes, can lead to GLOFs, and affect
mountain ecosystems, with potential risk of avalanches and landslides. Also, permafrost
(permanent frozen soil) may melt, causing problems in mountain areas.
Preparation is essential
Najam believes that a getting out of the disasters mindset is needed, as too many
climatic impacts are not about disasters. Communities have to focus on local response
and early response, knowing which issues are the most precarious for them, whereas the
role of the individual is to become better educated and more careful in terms of waste, as
well as awareness of immediate environment.
Agreeing that increased water demand for agriculture and acceleration of desertification
in many (mostly northern) areas, puts food security at stake, both Bocchiola and Najam
emphasised on the importance of early-warning and pre-disaster preparation. Hotspot
areas with heavily increased climate-related risks should be highlighted and interventions
be made to reduce vulnerability, Bocchiola added.
Najam believes that managing water resources, developing sustainable agriculture to
warrant food security; controlling deforestation; developing use of renewables;
controlling air pollution and discouraging use of fossils; forecasting and managing
extreme events, including floods, are all issues that require government support.
Everyone needs to help out
The government needs to work closely with experts and think tanks, while local
governments and civil society organisations need to get down to the community level to
develop low cost, feasible and sustainable strategies to make them resilient to climate
change, suggests Tauqir.
At the community level, there should be a choice of best strategies for local healthcare
management during heat waves, especially for elders and children in the hottest cities,

Bocchiola points out. An exchange of knowledge and ideas between local policymakers
and local scientific institutes could lead to development of scientifically based strategies.
Communities should opt for lifestyle choices that decrease their vulnerability to local
climatic hazards, for example, adjusting routines and schedules to avoid exposure to
extreme temperature and precipitation, and changing construction practices to become
climate resilient, Tauqir agreed.
Brocchiola proposed that each one of us should use water and energy wisely, deal smartly
with solid waste and conscientiously consume reasonably low amounts of meat; use
public transport or bicycles to limit traffic emission; and limiting burning of fossil fuels
for heating, whenever possible.
We need to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and lift the poor above the poverty
line by providing livelihood options and increasing income levels, added Tauqir.
Pakistans contribution to global emissions may be low, but this does not absolve it of the
responsibility to contribute to the global challenge of reducing climate change. Scientists
have given their verdict: human activity is causing climate change. The experts have
spoken: we need to have adaptation and mitigation at the heart of our development
agendas. The rest is up to us.

Environment alert
RAJA MUHAMMAD ATIF AZAD UPDATED Jul 23, 2015 08:34pm
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BE it food insecurity, water stress, or climate change, Pakistan is under threat from
wide-ranging environmental problems. If ever we needed a reminder, the heatwave
in Karachi provided just that. Yet, the shock will pass and life will go on: such is the
scale and frequency of the calamities afflicting this nation that it finds no option but
to go numb. Only the brutality of Peshawaresque proportions feels extraordinary,
and even then the collective response remains only a non-action plan. For everything
else, amnesia is an easier alternative.
However, climate change remains a threat even as our attention drifts. Several world
bodies have warned of extreme dangers to agriculture if we dont reform our practices. In
fact, farmers have been abandoning agriculture to take up other means of livelihood such
as cattle and poultry farming, and fishing.
If society is to respond to these challenges, we must first ensure that they do not vanish
from our collective memory. Consider the National Climate Change Policy devised in
2012 that exists practically only on paper. It is particularly instructive to peruse its
sections on awareness raising. Often limited to a single sentence, the plans are limited
to public campaigns. Amazingly, for such a gigantic challenge, there is no mention of
enhancing and modernising the national curricula on climate and environment. After all,
how better to mainstream environmental responsibility than to formally educate the
upcoming generations?
Environment has traditionally remained a specialised discipline at the university level,
and is only discussed superficially during the formative years at school. Also, while
producing doctors, engineers, and IT specialists, social issues are largely neglected. Thus,
environment as much a scientific as it is a social issue is never the top draw when
the merit lists are drawn up. In schools, whatever little is taught on the subject can be

tossed aside as optional material. Often limited to statistics on pollution, environmental


education remains peripheral to our syllabi.

School curricula must teach environmental awareness.

However, since natural disasters are projected to torment us over the coming decades, the
curriculum starting at school level must be revamped. The goal should be to raise a
breed of young philanthropists who can bring about social change, while the government
also takes urgent measures. However, it is important that this education be empowering
and not scaremongering, scientific and not dogmatic, mobilising and not crucifying, and,
crucially, using rather than overstretching the student schedules. Let me explain.
Empowerment means equipping with solutions. This inculcates a sense of community
service by focusing on concrete local issues, yet with a broader perspective. This service
can be especially useful while schools are out; such a volunteering experience can even
help in admission to prestigious universities in the US. An excellent example of
mobilising children for such purposes is the work of Mechai Viravaidya. Renowned for
campaigning for family planning in Thailand, he has brought local youth into village
committees to develop their communities. With the upcoming local governments, a
similar approach is practical in Pakistan.
It is important that sound principles are introduced at the earliest while leaving the
evolving debates to higher education and subject to regular revision. For example,
although large hydro projects are not a part of the CPEC because they are
environmentally questionable, there are also mitigating circumstances. The curriculum
should present both sides of a debate.
As students learn about the environment, they should be taught not to despise those who
do not understand such principles yet. Our society is already fragmented, and the youth
should learn to engage and not to disparage.
Above all, it is critical for the new instruction to blend into and not overstretch the
existing curriculum. Integration with the science subjects is only natural, whereas social
responsibility can be taught with Islamic principles of austerity, fairness and empathy.
The government must also facilitate a social curriculum through local administrations
which must liaise with schools, community leaders and especially the local imams, who
should speak on environmental issues. Community mosques and associated madressahs
can thus become a vehicle for change. Education is not enough though: the government

must also enforce social change. For example, the use of plastic shopping bags must be
taxed. This will encourage reuse and recycling, and may promote the use of embroidered
bags, spawning another economic activity. Likewise, to control noise pollution, each city
should have silent zones, where speed limits are manageable and blowing a horn is not
normally permitted.
Social attitudes and education should reflect the challenges that a country faces. A change
in our practices at both these levels is necessary to move on from continuous crisis
management to a state of readiness in a sustainable manner.
The writer is senior researcher at the University of Limerick, Ireland.
Published in Dawn, July 22nd, 2015

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