Math 160 - Cooley

Intro to Statistics

OCC

Section 12.1 Confidence Intervals for One Population Proportion

Population Proportion and Sample Proportion
Consider a population in which each member either has or does not have a specified attribute. Then we use the
following notation and terminology:
Population proportion, p: The proportion (percentage) of the entire population that has the specified attribute.
: The proportion (percentage) of a sample from the population that has the specified
Sample proportion, p
attribute.

Sample Proportion
, is computed by using the formula
A sample proportion, p
x
p
n
where x denotes the number of members in the sample that have the specified attribute and, as usual, n denotes
the sample size.
The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion
For samples of size n,
equals the population proportion: p p ;
the mean of p
equals the square root of the product of the population proportion and one
the standard deviation of p
p (1 p )
minus the population proportion divided by the sample size: p
; and
n
is approximately normally distributed for large n.
p

INTERVAL PROCEDURE #5 The One-Proportion z-Interval Procedure

Purpose: To find a confidence interval for a population proportion, p.
Assumptions
1) Simple random sample
2) The number of successes, x, and the number of failures, n x, are both 5 or greater.
Step 1 For a confidence level (1 ), use Table II to find z 2 .
Step 2 The confidence interval for p is from
p (1 p )
p z 2
to p z 2
n

p (1 p )
n
x
where z 2 is found in Step 1, n is the sample size, and p is the sample proportion.
n
Step 3 Interpret the confidence interval.

Math 160 - Cooley

Intro to Statistics

OCC

Section 12.1 Confidence Intervals for One Population Proportion

Margin of Error for the Estimate of p
The margin of error for the estimate of p is
E z 2

p (1 p )
n

Note: This is simply half the length of the confidence interval.

Sample Size For Estimating p
A (1 )-level confidence interval for a population proportion that has a margin of error of at most E can be
obtained by choosing
z 2
n 0.25
E

rounded up to the nearest whole number. If you can make an educated guess, p g (g for guess), for the observed
, then you should instead choose
value of p
z 2
n p g (1 p g )
E

rounded up to the nearest whole number.

Exercises:
Drinking Habits. A Readers Digest/Gallup Survey on the drinking habits of Americans estimated the
percentage of adults across the country who drink beer, wine, or hard liquor, at least occasionally. Of the 1516
adults interviewed, 985 said that they drank.
1)

Determine a 95% confidence interval for the proportion, p, of all Americans who drink beer, wine, or
hard liquor, at least occasionally. Interpret your result.

2)

Find the margin of error for the estimate of p.

3)

Obtain a sample size that will ensure a margin of error of at most 0.02 for a 95% confidence interval
.
without making a guess for the observed value of p

Math 160 - Cooley

Intro to Statistics

OCC

Section 12.1 Confidence Intervals for One Population Proportion

Exercises (continued):
4)

Find a 95% confidence interval for p if, for a sample of the size determined in question 3), 63% of those
sampled drink alcoholic beverages.

5)

Determine the margin of error for the estimate in question 4) and compare it to the margin of error
specified in question 3).

6)

Repeat questions 3) through 5) if you can reasonably presume that the percentage of adults sampled who
drink alcoholic beverages will be at least 60%.

7)

Compare the results obtained in questions 3) through 5) with those obtained in question 6).