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Study Session 16
Fixed Income:
Analysis and Valuation
57. Introduction to the
Valuation of Debt
Securities
Fixed Income Investments
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g of p
principal
p cash
Uncertaintyy about timing
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80
80
80
1,000
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Mathematically:
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1,000
(1.04 )
= $790.31
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1,142.430
1,000.00
10
Introduction to the
Valuation of Debt Securities
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11 - 3
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Price-Yield Relationship
Semiannual-Pay 8% 3-yr. Bond
At 4%:
At 8%:
At 12%:
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Maturity
Annual rate
0 5 years
0.5
5%
2 5%
2.5%
$30
1.0 years
6%
3.0%
$30
1.5 years
7%
3.5%
$1030
14
12 mo.
18 mo.
30
30
1030
+
+
= 986.55
2
3
1.025 (1.03
1 03 )
035 )
(11.035
Buy the bond for $984, strip it, sell the pieces for a
total of $986.55, keep the arbitrage profit = $2.55
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Arbitrage Process
Dealers can strip a T-bond into its individual
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Fixed Income:
Analysis and Valuation
58. Yield Measures, Spot
Rates, and Forward
Rates
Fixed Income Investments
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IRR-based
IRR
based yields
Yield to put
Yield to worst
Cash flow yield
19
60
60
1060
+
+
2
(1 + YTM) (1 + YTM) (1 + YTM)3
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coupon 1
coupon 2
coupon N + par value
+
+ .... +
2
N
1+ YTM
1+ YTM
1+ YTM
2
2
2
) (
21
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23 - 2
Current Yield
(Ignores Movement Toward Par Value)
Current yield =
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80
= 8.873% YTM = 12%
901.65
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25 - 3
callll date
d t for
f par and
d number
b off periods
i d to
t the
th
first call date for N
Use yield to refunding when bond is currently
callable but has refunding protection
Yield to worst is the lowest of YTM and the
YTCs for all the call dates and prices
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putt date
d t for
f par and
d number
b off periods
i d tto
the put date for N
Cash flow yield is a monthly IRR based on
the expected cash flows of an amortizing
(mortgage) security
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Annual-Pay YTM to
Semiannual-Pay YTM
Annual-pay YTM is 8%,
8% what is the equivalent
semiannual-pay YTM (i.e., BEY)?
1.08 1 2 = 7.846%
31
Semiannual-Pay YTM to
Annual-Pay YTM
Semiannual-pay
Semiannual
pay YTM (BEY) is 8%,
8% what is the
annual-pay equivalent?
Semiannual yield is 8 / 2 = 4%. Annual-pay
equivalent (EAY) is:
2
0.08
1 + 2 1 = 8.16%
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1,000
= 983
1.0173
1,020
1 = 2.26%, BEY = 2 2.26 = 4.52%
975.34
33
= 942.37 =
1.0173 (1.0226)2 (1 + ?)3
1.0173
(1.0226)2
(1+?)3
?=
1,022.5
1 = 2.76%, BEY = 2 2.76 = 5.52%
942.37
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35
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Option-Adjusted Spreads
Option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are spreads that
take out the effect of embedded options on yield
yield,
reflect yield differences for differences in risk and
liquidity
Option cost in yield% = ZV spread% OAS%
Option cost > 0 for callable,
callable < 0 for putable
Must use OAS for debt with embedded options
37
Forward Rates
Forward rates are N-period rates for
b
borrowing/lending
i /l di att some date
d t in
i the
th future
f t
Notation for one-period forward rates:
1F 0
1F 1
is the one-period
one period rate
rate, one period from now
1F 2
2F 1
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(1+S4 )4
(1+S2 )2
1 = 2F2 so,
(1.05 )4
(1.04 )2
1 = 6.01%
Approximation:
pp
4 5% 2 4% = 20% 8% = 12%
12% / 2 = 6%
2F2
[(1.04)(1.05)(1.055)] 1 = S3 = 4.8314%
Approximation : (4 + 5 + 5.5) = 4.833
3
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40
40
1040
+
+
= 1,014.40
1 03 (1
1.03
(1.03)(1.035)
03)(1 035) (1
(1.03)(1.035)(1.04)
03)(1 035)(1 04)
1+S1
(1+S2 )2
(1+S3 )3
43
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Fixed Income:
Analysis and Valuation
59. Introduction to the
Measurement of
Interest Rate Risk
Fixed Income Investments
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110.67
100 00
100.00
90.79
7%
8%
YTM
9%
47
Negative
convexity
call option
value
102
callable bond
Negative Convexity
y'
Positive Convexity
Yield
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Yield
y'
49
Duration =
Price at YTM + y
V V+
2(V0 )( y)
Current price
Change in YTM
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current price
50 basis
points
51 - 2
Using Duration
Our 8%,, 15-year
y
par
p bond has a duration of 8.57
Duration effect = D y
If YTM increases 0.3% or 30 bp, bond price
decreases by approximately:
8.57 0.3% = 2.57%
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Duration Measures
Macaulay duration is in years
Duration of a 5-year, zero-coupon bond is 5
1% change in yield, 5% change in price
Modified duration adjusts Macaulay duration
for market yield, yield up duration down
Effective duration allows for cash flow
changes as yield changes, must be used for
bonds with embedded options
53
Effective Duration
Both Macaulay duration and modified duration are
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Duration Interpretation
PV-weighted average of the number of years
until
til coupon and
d principal
i i l cash
h flflows are tto b
be
received
Slope of the price-yield curve (i.e., first
derivative of the price-yield function with
respect to yield)
Approximate percentage price change for a 1%
change in YTM: The best interpretation!
55
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$993.53
$908.00
$828.41
$822.47
8%
9%
10%
Actual price-yield
curve
Price estimates based
on a duration of 9.42
YTM
57 - 3
Convexity Adjustment
Recall our 8%, 15-year par bond with duration
= 8.57
8 57
For a 50 bp change in yield, price change based
on duration is: 8.57 0.5% = 4.285%
Actual increase when YTM 0.5% = 4.457%
Actual decrease when YTM 0.5% = 4.195%
4.195%
Increase underestimated, decrease
overestimated
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Convexity Effect
To adjust for the for the curvature of the bond
price yield relation
price-yield
relation, use the convexity effect:
+ Convexity (y)2
Assume convexity of the bond = 52.4
Convexity (y)2 = 52.4(0.005)2 = 0.00131
y = 0.5%
So our convexity adjustment is +0.131% for a
yield increase or for a yield decrease
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59
Duration-Convexity Estimates
For a yield decrease of 0.5% we have:
8.57 (0.005) + 52.4 (0.005)2 = +4.416%
Duration only = +4.285% Actual = +4.457%
For a yield increase of 0.5% we have:
8.57
8 57 (0.005)
(0 005) + 52
52.4
4 (0
(0.005)
005)2 = 4.154%
4 154%
Duration only = 4.285% Actual = 4.195%
Convexity adjustment improved both estimates!
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65 - 2
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2( 1.14 1) = 0.1354
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1.06 3
1 = 0.04028 = 4.028%
1 07 2
1.07
3 6 2 7 = 18 14 = 4
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105.3 95.5
= 9.8
98
2(100)(0.005)
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