7/31/2016

HowPakistansProxyWarBeganIXIndianDefenceReview

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HowPakistan'sProxyWarBeganIX
ByBRaman
Issue:BookExcerpts:ATerroristStateasaFrontlineAlly|Date:26May,2011

Wakeupcall
TheDayofInfamyinNewYorkandWashingtonDConSeptember11isawakeupcallforallnations
grapplingwiththemenaceofexternallydirectedterrorism.MoresoforIndia.
Alsoread:HowPakistansProxyWarBeganI
Securityagenciesallovertheworldhadbeenconcernedsincethemiddle1990soverthepossibilityofthe
followingthreepotentiallycatastrophicfuturescenarios,whichtheycallneworcatastrophicterrorism:
Clicktobuy:ATerroristStateasaFrontlineAlly
First,theuseoforthreattouseweaponsofmassdisruption(egacomputetvirus)todamageordestroy
thenationalsecurity,economic,communications,energyandothervitalsuppliesinfrastructures.
Second, the use of or threat to use weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear, chemical and
biologicalweapons.
Third,seizingcontrolofsensitiveinstallationssuchasnuclearreactorsandusingthemasbargaining
chipstoforcetheStatetoconcedetheirdemands.
Terroristnetworksoftodayarebecomingincreasinglyautonomousintheirfunctioningwiththeir
dependenceontheirStatesponsorsreducedbytheeasyavailabilityofnarcoticsdollarsandweaponsand
explosives,whichtheycanbuyfromtheflourishingsmugglersmarketwithnarcoticsmoney.
TheseconcernsweretheoutcomeoftheSaringasattackbytheOmShinrikiyosectinTokyoin1995and
subsequentinterviewsgivenbyOsamabinLadeninwhichhehadexpressedaninterestintheprocurement
ofweaponsofmassdestruction,particularlychemicalweapons.
However,noneofthescenariosdiscussedinthepasthadvisualisedthetypeofhorrendousattacksmounted
bytheterroristsonSeptember11.Butirrationalandfanaticalmindsthinkalike.ASikhterroristarrestedin
theearly1990shadstatedthatPakistansISIhadsuggestedtotheterroriststhepossibilityofcrashingaplane
intotheMumbaiHighplatform.MumbaiMarch,1993,wastheseedfromwhichNewYorkand
WashingtonDC2001wasborn.
InthethirdandfinalpartofitsreportonNationalSecurityduringthe21stCenturyreleasedinFebruary,
2001,abipartisanCommissionledbyformerUSSenatorsWarrenBRudmanandGaryHarthadcalledfor
thecreationofaCabinetlevelagencytoassumeresponsibilityfordefendingtheUSagainsttheincreasing
likelihoodofterroristattacksinthecountry.ThereportwarnedthatterroristsprobablywillattacktheUS
withnuclear,chemicalorbiologicalweaponsatsomepointwithinthenext25years.
TheCommissionproposedacompleteredesignoftheNationalGuardtoprovideanewHomelandSecurity
AgencywithUSbasedtroopstocombatthosewhothreatenedtheUSwithinitsterritory.Itoutlinedafar
reachingreorganisationofthePentagon,theStateDepartment,theNationalSecurityCouncilandother
agencies,sayingthattheyhadbecomebloatedandunfocused.ItsreportevenurgedCongresstostreamline
itsowncommitteestructuretokeepinterferenceinnationalsecuritymatterstotheminimumnecessary.
Deathsarenolongercountedindozens,butinthousands.Oldcrisismanagementdrillsevolvedtomeet
conventionalthreatssuchashijacking,hostagetaking,etc,willnolongermeetthehorrendousthreatsof
today.
TheCommissionrecommendedmergingtheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency,theCustomsService,
theBorderPatrolandtheCoastGuardintothenewHomelandSecurityAgency.ItsaidthattheNational
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HowPakistansProxyWarBeganIXIndianDefenceReview

Guardshouldbereorganised,properlytrainedandadequatelyequippedtocopewithnaturaldisastersand
attacksonUStargetsbyweaponsofmassdestruction.TheCommissionsaidthattheNationalGuardshould
berelievedoftheresponsibilityofparticipatinginoverseasdeploymentsandconcentrateonsecurityat
home.
Thereportadded:Thecombinationofunconventionalweaponsproliferationwiththepersistenceof
internationalterrorismwillendtherelativeinvulnerabilityoftheUShomelandtocatastrophicattack.A
directattackagainstAmericancitizensonAmericansoilislikelyoverthenextquartercentury.Theriskis
notonlydeathanddestructionbutalsoademoralisationthatcouldundermineUSgloballeadership.Inthe
faceofthisthreat,ournationhasnocoherentorintegratedgovernmentalstructures.
USCongressmenhaveattributedthefailureoftheUSCentralIntelligenceAgency(CIA)togiveadvance
warningsoftheSeptember11attackstoitsoverfocusontechnicalintelligence(TECHINT)tothedetriment
ofhumanintelligence(HUMINT).Thecatastrophicterroristgroupsoftoday,exemplifiedbytheAIQaidaof
binLaden,donotalwaysusemoderntechnologies.FortheWorldTradeCentrebombinginFebruary,1993,
andforthebombingsinNairobiandDaresSalaaminAugust,1998,hissupportersdidnotusemodern
explosives.Theyused,instead,alargequantityofnitratefertilisers,whichanybodycanbuyinthemarket
withoutcreatingsuspicion.
Theysticktooldcommunicationtechnologiestoavoiddetection.EversincetheUSbombingof\histraining
campsinAfghanistaninAugust1998,binLadenhasbeenlargelyusingcouriersandavoidingtheuseofhis
mobile(satellite)phonelesttheCruisemissileszeroinonthephone.
UnlesstheHUMINTcapabilityissteppedup,advancewarningsofsuch
catastrophicterroristactsisgoingtobeincreasinglydifficult.LiketheCIA,
theIndianIntelligenceCommunityhasalsobeenstronginTECHINT,but
weakinHUMINT.Unlessthisissetright,ourpreventivecapabilitywouldbe
weak.
Catastrophicterrorismdemandsamultiagencyapproach,withallcounter
terrorismdivisionsofvariousagenciesworkingunderacommonroof,under
commonleadership,withacommonnationalpurpose.Thiscameintoforcein
othercountriesmanyyearsago.Indiahasonlyjustnowwokenuptotheneed
forit.

EditorsPick
FighttheTerroristLike
aTerrorist
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Leadershipneedsa
relook?
After26/11:Needfor
SmartCounter
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ThenetworkingoftheterroristshasnotbeenmatchedbyanetworkingofthevictimStates.Therehasbeena
mushroomingofintelligencesharingmechanisms,butwithoutvisibleimprovementinthegroundsituation.
Deathsarenolongercountedindozens,butinthousands.Oldcrisismanagementdrillsevolvedtomeet
conventionalthreatssuchashijacking,hostagetaking,etc,willnolongermeetthehorrendousthreatsof
today.
IndiascrisismanagementwasfoundwantingevenduringtheclassiclAChijackingofDecember,1999.
Doesoursecuritybureaucracyhavethecapabilitytopreventcatastrophicterrorismanddealcompetently
withthecatastrophe,ifitspreventivemechanismfails?Thisisaquestion,whichneedsurgentattention.
Terroristnetworksoftodayarebecomingincreasinglyautonomousintheirfunctioningwiththeir
dependenceontheirStatesponsorsreducedbytheeasyavailabilityofnarcoticsdollarsandweaponsand
explosives,whichtheycanbuyfromtheflourishingsmugglersmarketwithnarcoticsmoney.
ThenonStateactorterroristsoftodaytendtogrouptogetherinunitedfrontsinordertoassisteachotherin
theiroperations.BinLadensInternationalIslamicFrontforJehadagainsttheUSandIsraelbringstogether
nearlyadozenIslamicterroristorganisationsofdifferentcountries.
Terrorismisanabsoluteevilandhastobetreatedassuch.
Undersuchcircumstances,acounterproxywarstrategybyIndiahastobedirectednotonlyagainstaState
sponsorsuchasPakistan,butalsoagainstthevariousnonStateactorsoperatingfromPakistaniterritory,who
maynotbetotallyunderitscontrol.
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ThenetworkingoftheterroristshasnotbeenmatchedbyanetworkingofthevictimStates.Therehasbeena
mushroomingofintelligencesharingmechanisms,butwithoutvisibleimprovementinthegroundsituation.
Anequallyimportantfactorhasbeenthelackofalucidanalysisofthedimensionsofthenewmenaceand
theabsenceofapoliticalwilltostrike.Onehopesthatthepresentwilltotakeupthechallengeposedbythe
terroristswouldnotbeweakenedaftersometimeduetopoliticalconsiderations,asoftenhappens.Terrorism
isanabsoluteevilandhastobetreatedassuch.
Copyright2016IndianDefenceReview

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