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I. INTRODUCTION
Weather prediction, in general, is a complex
process and challenging task. It requires various
parameters to forecast the weather. Monitoring and
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an
III. FUNCTIONS
A. HYPOTHESIS:
D MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION:
(1)
IV.FLOWCHART
Weather Data
B COST FUNCTION:
is a mathematical
Cost function ()
function which makes the above hypothesis to be
closer to the output. So this function minimises the
mean square error. The cost function is explained
as given in equation 2.
() =
((
) )^2
Labelling data to
different climate
---(2)
Cost function
Gradient descent
Hypothesis
C GRADIENT DESCENT:
Gradient descent is a differential equation
which minimises the theta( ) value in order to
minimise the cost function after repeated iterations.
In matlab the following function represented by
equation (3) is implemented to converge the value
of the cost function . This can be made only by
minimising the theta value in consecutive steps.
Error verification
Training
set
j :=j - J()
Cross validation
set
--- (3)
Here j is the theta value of a particular iteration
value and J() is the cost function
Weather
prediction
D NORMAL EQUATION:
Test set
V. METHODOLOGY
Weather cannot be predicted with good percentage
of accuracy. It is an art to forecast weather with
very low deviations and making it to fetch good
results. But weather forecasting tends to deviate
more and has moderate accuracy.
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VII. RESULTS
The prediction for the next days weather
which follows maximum, minimum, rainfall and
the type of the day (whether it is sunny or cloudy or
rainy) is predicted with a good rate of accuracy
using the plots obtained from fig(1.3,1.4,1.5)
through hypothesis by getting the value of yaxis
from the curve by substituting the x axis value
Parameters or
Features:
Max.Temperature
Min Temperature
Rainfall
Type of the day
22nd day
prediction
27.8138
25.42222
6.8656
Rainy day
Theta 4
11.447015
-0.457802
0.176650
0.007970
Theta 3
Theta 4
-0.858447
0.183849
0.086995
34
33.57
1.26%
30
28.95
3.5%
0%
CONCLUSION
The results can also be verified with multi class
classification using logistic regression and with
artificial neural network. But the disadvantage of
using artificial neural network and multi
classification is that, they give us an output of the
day and not the nearest value probability of how
the day is going to be. The support vector machine
can also be used in predicting the data and works
best when there are a large number of features and
classifications present but redundant features must
be avoided .The only effort which is to be taken by
the user is to update the data set in order to show
accurate results. And it works well when the data
set is considerably large enough to provide at least
one-seventh of the data to be forecasted. For
example, if the data set has been taken for 365
days, the forecasted weather will be accurate for
the first 52 days. When there are more features and
more training examples (data set) the forecast
works best. The module helps in monitoring and
2.00000
Max
temp:
Min
temp:
Rainfall:
Theta 1
%
DEVIATION
Theta 3
PREDICTED
VALUE
Theta 2
ACTUAL
VALUE
23rd day
prediction
26.5903
24.6687
8.5715
Rainy day
Theta 1
METRIC
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The idea and the implementation of this
paper wouldnt be successful without the help of
our supporting professor Dr.T.R.V.Anandharajan
M.Jeeva bharathi and the preceptor Dr.AndrewNg.
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