Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
POLITICAL SUPPRESSION OF
PRICES/UNSTABLE
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICE
CONSUMER OUTRAGE
DISCUSSION OUTLINE
1. POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
WHY ARE WE HAVING BROWNOUTS?
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Committed Existing Capacity Required Reserve Margin Peak Demand
IN THE 1ST HALF OF 2010, THERE WERE NUMEROUS DAYS WHEN THE
LUZON GRID WENT ON RED ALERT AND ROTATING BROWNOUTS.
CAUSED BY A CONFLUENCE OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS:
Source: Wholesale Electricity Spot Market Daily Market Updates TOTAL – 3,673 MW
VISAYAS GRID
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,800 128 MW
1,600 DEFICIT
PEAK DEMAND: 1, 332MW
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
DEPENDABLE CAPACITY AVE DEP1 CAP
MARCH 2009
CAPACITY
Oil Based 539.12 410.78
Hydro 11.51 6.90
Coal 140.23 102.75
Geothermal 906.25 684
2,000
1,800 3% 9% 31%
RESERVE RESERVE RESERVE
1,600 MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN
1,400 PEAK DEMAND: 1,332 MW
1,200 CEDC 1 KEPCO-
1,000 82MW
(MAR.’10)
PEDC
82MW
SALCON
200MW
800 CEDC 2
(Oct’10) (JAN.’11)
600 82MW
(MAY’10)
CEDC 3
(Dec’10)
PEDC
82MW
400 (JAN ’11)
200
0
Ave Dep Cap Dep Cap 1H Dep Cap 2H Dep Cap 1H
Dep Cap
2009 2010 2010 2011
Biomass 0 0 0 0 18
Oil Based 539.12 410.78 410.78 410.78 410.78
Hydro 11.51 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90
Coal 140.23 102.75 266.75 348.75 630.75
Geothermal 906.25 683.80 683.80 683.80 683.80
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,200.00
UNPLANNED
0.00
Dep Cap Actual Cap March 2010
Oil Based 517.68 436.86
Hydro 861.80 288.63
Coal 210.00 210.00
Geothermal 108.48 98.72
TOTAL 1,698 MW 1034 MW
HOW MUCH RESERVE CAPACITY DOES A GRID
REALLY NEED?
40 90%
80%
35
70%
30
60%
Frequency
25
50%
20
40%
15
30%
10
20%
5 10%
0 0%
7024
9982
9797
9612
9427
9242
9058
8873
8688
8503
8318
8133
7948
7763
7578
7394
7209
6839
6654
6469
6284
6099
DEPENDABLE CAPACITY (MW) Frequency Cumulative %
AFTER PRIVATIZATION PICKED UP MOMENTUM, AVERAGE DEPENDABLE
CAPACITY OF THE GRID INCREASED BY ~450 MW TO 8,467 MW. THE
INCREASE HAPPENED WITHOUT ANY NEW POWER PLANTS.
45 90%
40 80%
35 70%
30 60%
Frequency
25 50%
20 40%
15 30%
10 20%
5 10%
0 0%
7024
9982
9797
9612
9427
9242
9058
8873
8688
8503
8318
8133
7948
7763
7578
7394
7209
6839
6654
6469
6284
6099
DEPENDABLE CAPACITY (MW) Frequency Cumulative %
DISCUSSION OUTLINE
1. POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
WHY ARE WE HAVING BROWNOUTS?
350%
GROWTH ( 2004 = 0)
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
Jul-04
Sep-04
Nov-04
Jul-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-04
Mar-04
Jan-05
Mar-05
Jan-06
Mar-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
-50%
350%
GROWTH ( 2004 = 0)
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Jul-04
Sep-04
Jul-05
Sep-05
Jul-06
Sep-06
Jul-07
Sep-07
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jul-09
Sep-09
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
-50%
P6.01/
7.00 kWh
6.00
P4.21/
5.00 kWh
P3.11/
P/kWh
4.00 kWh
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO NEW COAL
PENDING ICERA APPLICATION 0.64 0.07 0.04
PENDING GRAM APPLICATION 0.63 0.06 0.11
AUTOMATIC COST ADJ - FPPCA 0.37 0.32 0.11 P5.40/
AUTOMATIC COST ADJ - FxA
FBHC
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.03
kWh
BASIC ENERGY CHARGE 4.36 3.73 2.82 5.54
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jan-10
Feb-08
May-08
Feb-09
May-09
Feb-10
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Apr-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Oct-08
Oct-09
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
“ACROSS-THE-BOARD” SUBSIDIES ON ELECTRICITY MISALLOCATE
RESOURCES AWAY FROM THE POOR AND TOWARDS THE RICH
Class B
Class A
36% of
56% of
total kWh total kWh Class C,D,E,F
73.8M Filipinos
Source: Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES), National Statistics Office 2006
As A Percentage Of Their Budgets, Lower Income Families
Spend Much Less On Electricity Than Higher Income
Households
Class A Class B
Personal Care, 5% Personal Care, 5%
Educational Fees,
Educational Fees,
Fuel, 4% 12.4% Fuel, 4%
15.2%
Furnitures, 5% Furnitures, 5%
Household Household
operations, 5.0% Food, 31.6% operations, 4.4%
Food, 45.9%
Clothing, 5.1%
Clothing, 5.8% Transport and Transport and
Comm., 10.4% Water, 1.1% Comm., 7.3%
Electricity,
Water, 1.1% Electricity,
4.9%
4.3% Recreational, 3.3%
Recreational, 6.3%
Taxes, 1.0%
Medical Care, 3.7%
Taxes, 2.7% Medical Care, 2.5%
2,213,568 10,490,461
Source: Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES), National Statistics Office 2006
As A Percentage Of Their Budgets, Lower Income Families
Spend Much Less On Electricity Than Higher Income
Households
Class C Class D
Personal Care, 5% Personal Care, 5%
Educational Fees,
Educational Fees,
Fuel, 4% 10.0%
10.8% Fuel, 4%
Furnitures, 5%
Furnitures, 5%
Household Household
operations, 5.4% operations, 5.3%
Food, 61.3%
Clothing, 2.1%
Clothing, 2.5% Food, 56.4%
Water, 0.4%
Water, 0.6% Transport and
Transport and Electricity,
Electricity, Comm., 3.0%
Comm., 4.5% 1.4%
2.6%
Taxes, 0.1%
Taxes, 0.2% Recreational, 1.7% Recreational, 0.7%
Medical Care, 1.6%
Medical Care, 1.8%
13,845,948 14,320,288
Source: Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES), National Statistics Office 2006
As A Percentage Of Their Budgets, Lower Income Families
Spend Much Less On Electricity Than Higher Income
Households
Class E Class F
22,479,051 22,357,846
Source: Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES), National Statistics Office 2006
Industrial Power Rates (2006)
WHY DO WE HAVE
ONE OF THE HIGHEST Philippines 14.0
GOVERNMENT?
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
US cents/kWh
COMPARATIVE GENERATION MIX OF SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES
Philippines Thailand Malaysia China Vietnam
RATE TO INDUSTRIAL CONSUMER (as of Dec 2006)
$0.14 / kWh
Imported
Imported 14.0%
Imported Imported
Imported 2.2%
23.6% 27%
35.1%
Indigenous Indigenous Indigenous
Indigenous
64.8% 73% Indigenous 86.0%
76.4%
97.7%
Nuclear
Oil
1.9%
2.5%
Hydro Natural Gas Oil
Hydro 0.3% Hydro
Geothermal Coal Coal 10% 14.7% 14.0% Natural Gas
7.4% Coal
18.5% 26.9% 17.2% 29.0%
Oil 27% Coal
6.4% 15.0%
Hydro
18% Oil
Natural Gas Natural Gas
8.2% Coal Hydro
66.1% 63% 80.5%
Natural Gas 42.0%
29.5%
Legend:
1.79
Import/Excise tax on Imported Fuels
~0.30-0.70
In P/kWh
0.22
0.21
0.04
Indigenous Imported Imported Coal Geothermal Indigenous
Coal Diesel Steam Natural Gas
RA 9337, Tarrif and Customs Code:
PD 972, PD 1174: PD 87:
Excise Tax: Coal-P10/MT, Bunker-0, LNG - PD 1442:
30% of net proceeds 60% of net proceeds 60% of net proceeds
2%, Diesel-0; ~ 48%-56% of gross
~ 3% of gross Import Duty= Coal:3%, Oil:1% ~ 6%-42% of gross
30
1.44
P/kWh
1.76 1.03
1.27 1.08
0.54 0.66
0.08 - -
Philippines Indonesia (1) Thailand (2) Vietnam (3) Malaysia (4)
Level of Royalties
Sources: 1. US Embassy in Indonesia. Gas sold to domestic market is typically priced 1/3 less than LNG sales.
2. Unocal Thailand Fact Sheet. Royalty paid from 1981-2003 is $1.4 Billion for 5.561 Tcf of natural gas.
3. Price of gas sold by government owned PVN to government owned EVN is $3.22/MMBtu.
4. Petronas. Government subsidy on domestically used natural gas ~$1.72Billion per year.
Gas rate to TNB is RM6.4/MMBtu (~$1.78/MMBtu) 32
“ACROSS-THE-BOARD” REDUCTION ON ELECTRICITY RATES WILL FAVOR
THE HIGHER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
Class B
Class A
36% of
56% of
total kWh total kWh Class C,D,E,F
73.8M Filipinos
Source: Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES), National Statistics Office 2006
HIGHEST “BANG-FOR-BUCK” FOR GOVERNMENT FROM ROYALTY
REMOVAL WILL BE ACHIEVED BY REDUCING POWER RATES FOR
HIGH LOAD FACTOR INDUSTRIAL USERS
Electricity
Electricity 41%
25%
Salaries
Water 37%
Salaries 1%
45% Construction
2%
Taxes
6% Telecom
Transportation 1%
14% Transportation Construction
Training
1% 2% 17%
Taxes
Services
2% Waste Water
5% 1%
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
MERALCO Generation
Generation
Charge
Charge
From Natural
NPC Ecozone Rate
GENERATION CHARGE GasFrom
FiredNatural
Power Plants
Gas After
Fired
Removal
PowerofPlants
Royalties
(2700MW)
(2700MW)
INITIALLY, ONLY PHP5 BILLION FOREGONE ROYALTY TO GOVERNMENT
* May 2008
DISCUSSION OUTLINE
1. POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
WHY ARE WE HAVING BROWNOUTS?
POLITICAL SUPPRESSION OF
PRICES/UNSTABLE
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICE
CONSUMER OUTRAGE
END OF PRESENTATION