Almost

all the news channels are trying to perform an anatomy of the current
great Indian drought situation!
We see the reporters carrying a mike to various evidently visible drought
affected areas- recognized by parched dried up soil showing cracks and water
loss- asking the local people (majorly farmers) about the condition of life- and
how they have to struggle to get the one bucket of water through tankers
provided by the s(S)tate.
The reporting next moves on to the lack of rainfall statistics- and % of water
remaining in the dams and irrigation structures. Further moving on to the
imminent Farmer Suicides- as a resultant function of the drought.

Mathematically:
Farmer Suicide = f{(Amount invested)- (Amount received from harvest)}

If invested amount is greater than harvested amount, the farmer goes into debt-
and due to the various methodologies and shame associated with debt, the
farmers commit suicide.

I refer here, Rajdeep Sardesais interview of farmer suicides in India Today news
channel. Mr Rajdeep travels to Marathwada region (Beed)- with a golden mike to
those families whose members had committed suicide- and invariably the first
question is- how much was the debt? What were problems faced due to
Sahukar (or local money lender)?

This reduces drought to a very natural phenomenon- a severe lack of rainfall-
and the resulting farmer suicide to an implied condition- Logically concluded as-
If drought exists Farmer Suicides would occur.

I wish to argue through this work that there is more to it than the natural causes.
There are anthropogenic factors to the drought, which has a much more potent
effect on the drought than the natural causes.

So what exactly is a drought?
Drought is not a single stage phenomenon. It is a shortage of water (the essence
of life- humans and plants), but there are several stages to the drought. The
stages could be classified as follows:

1. Meteorological Drought- reduction in rainfall over a specific time
period. It could be due to:
i. Lean Monsoon and below average rainfall
ii. Late onset- or early withdrawal of monsoon
iii. Prolonged breaks in monsoon
2. Hydrological Drought- Reduction of Water availability. There are two
types of hydrological droughts, viz:
i. Surface Water Drought- drying up of surface water- river,
lake, ponds etc.
ii. Ground Water Drought- fall in ground water level-excessive
pumping out of water without compensatory
replenishment

3. Agricultural Drought- Impact of Meteorological and Hydrological on the

agricultural produce- soil moisture and rainfall not adequate for crop
growth
Prolonged agricultural drought leads to desertification
Dependent on the land use pattern (cropping pattern also)- what
type of crop is planted/ harvested
Relative category
Agricultural drought exists either due to Meteorological/
Hydrological drought that impacts the soil moisture content. Thus
this has a subset-
i. Soil Moisture Drought
4. Socio-Economic Drought- reduction in availability of food and income
loss on account of crop failures
Impacts could be on:
i. Humans
ii. Livestock- due to decrease in fodder- and resulting
decrease in output of livestock- including work done, milk
provided etc.- which again affects their owners either in
form of food/ manure or in terms of income derived due to
ownership of livestock.
5. Famine- when large scale collapse of access to food occurs- leading to
mass starvation. (Famine has officially been removed from Indian
Constitution lingo- and cannot exist as per the Indian Constitution!)
6. Ecological Drought- productivity of natural ecosystem fails due to the
distress induced environmental change. This is a longer-term effect of the
continuation of the drought for some time that results in a change in the
ecology of the area affected- including desertification. One grand example
of this is the Sahel Region in Northern Africa- that acts as the boundary
between the Sahara Desert and the tropical forests. Sahel is known to
increase by 1400 Km every year! This is also a result of Human-
Environment interaction.

(Mohita)

The above bifurcation is an attempt, on the basis of various authors work to
classify drought, to simplify the same and put across the drought as a spectrum
and not as an individual event.

The Indian Monsoon is one great spectacle that was known for its integrity in
keeping up with its committed time. But this is a highly romanticized
generalization of the Indian Monsoon. The Monsoon starts out as winds pregnant
with moisture- which results in rains over the western coast- starts at
Trivandram (Kerala)- proceeds northwards and then goes east to come back to
the south as receding monsoon that provides rain to parts of Andhra and Tamil
Nadu. (a very short and crisp reduction of the Great Indian Monsoon spectacle)
But, there might be small changes in the onset- the way it propagates, the way it
withdraws- and thereby we do not have a continued rainy season from June to
October- but patches of rains- and sunshine and cloudy weather.

This variability is the first real problem.

2015 saw a very good start for the monsoon (especially over Maharashtra)-
statistics show a 120% realization of June monsoon!
As old wise saying states- well begun is half well done, anticipating a very good
monsoon ahead, Kharif plantation starts by June- and farmers were looking out
for a great season ahead!
But the months ahead were rough- July showed a realization of 45%, August
54.83% and September- 86.56%
These percentages are realization to average rainfall. And this wasnt uniform
over the state- for example in August, Vidarbha division realized 94.5% rainfall
while Marathwada received 19.37%.
(SANDRP, 2015)

This variability in the monsoon kick-starts the meteorological drought- where
rains are like John Mclane of Die Hard fame- the wrong man at the wrong time!

When rainfall reduces- (Reduction of rainfall could be due to lots of reasons-
including severe deforestation, el Nino effect etc.) the effectiveness of water
storage and water utilization is the next issue that we must focus on because that
affects the next stage of the drought- the Hydrological Drought.
Maharashtra has one of the best Dam-ed networks in Asia! Yet there are multiple
issues with water shortages and droughts!
2005, there was an Authority established- the Maharashtra Water Resource
Reallocation Authority- that is supposed to take control of all the water in all the
dams across the state in October (after the monsoon season) and ensure equality
of distribution. But by November-December itself- we see a gross inequality of
water storage- the upper riparian (meaning the places where rivers originates-
on the hills and at higher altitudes) show a vulgar storage vs. capacity of about
60-90% while the lower riparian- the marathwada and the vidarbha have a
storage vs. capacity of 2-20%.
This starts the Hydrological Surface water drought. The obvious way to get
access to water for the people of these regions (marathwada, vidarbha) is to tap
into ground water- thus we have a situation where there is a reduction in
rainfall- and the people are resorting to pumping water from underneath- but
there is no real scope for water replenishment.
Fast forward this process for about 3-4 years continuous- which results in a
drastic reduction of ground water also- thereby leading to a ground water
shortage which is the next stage of the hydrological drought.
This reduction of surface water and ground water- depletes the soils moisture
content- and thereby results in an agricultural drought- that reduces the annual
yield of crops.
Add the utilization of water-intensive plants including sugar cane in this regionand you have a complex situation wherein water levels are dropping drastically
and agriculture output also drops. Further the drop in water content also affects
the quality of whatever crop is produced- thereby a significant drop in the yield-
both as harvested output and the resultant economic value occurs.
This is where the farmers get into the spiral of loans and economic imbalances-
where the costs involved in the production of crop exceed the economic returns.

But this is not a simple Economics story.

I have a hypothesis for the Agrarian Crisis.
(I)
Economic Distress = f{(Cost of Inputs)- (Price of Output) + (Govt. Aid)}

(II)
Farmer Distress = f{(Economic Distress) + (Personal Distress) +




(Family Distress) (Social Support) (Govt. Aid)}

The Personal Distress includes components like the farmers own
wedlock, (re)construction of house, family life, his/her caste- and
resulting expected social behavior etc.
The Family Distress includes components like Kids in school- not doing
well, His/her girl child falling in love with someone (especially of other
caste), the marriage of his/her child (mainly girl child) etc.
Social Support includes various support infrastructure taken up either by
the government or the gram Panchayats or various groups/ mandals that
the farmer is part of- including Bhajan Keertan groups
Government Aid includes monetary or any other support from the
government including various schemes like MNREGA, ICDS, NRHM, FSA,
etc.

Thus, there exist certain pre-existing stressors in the life of the farmers and
when the drought risks materialize- it adds to these stressors and increases the
psychological vulnerability of the individual to attempt suicide.

So, Farmers do not commit suicide due to the sole reason of an economic crisis-
but there are great many factors underplaying his/ her decision to attempt a
suicide.
Maharashtra Government is working towards addressing these factors- right
from the Prerana Project or the Sukhi Baliraja Initiative, the government is trying
to address these multitudes of factors.
Further various attempts like the Jal-yukt Shivar, Integrated Water Resource
Management Plans, the Government Regulation on Bore wells- that tries to
address the surface water and ground water recharge, the Fasal Bima Yojana-
that tries to bring about some compensation to crop loss, various initiatives to
shift focus of farmers away from water-intensive cash crops to staples like dal,
pulses, oilseeds, Jowar, Bajra which are more adaptive to suit local conditions of
less water- and government measures to guarantee fair pricing.
These efforts have in some way been effective- as we now see a shift away from
sugarcane and cotton- to oilseeds, pulses etc.

But a greater understanding of the local conditions, and farmers requirement is
necessary. Water tankers can solve the issue of drinking water in the very short
term- but is that a solution to the drought situation?

An article critiquing the way popular media houses are covering the drought
situation in India- by Lakshman Srikanth, M.Sc. in Disaster Management, Tata
Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai. (email: lakshman2606@gmail.com)

Bibliography

Mohita, N. (n.d.). Retrieved March 15, 2016, from

http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/drought/7-main-types-of-droughtrecognized-in-india-explained/14048/
National Drought Mitigation Center. (n.d.). Retrieved April 20, 2016, from
http://drought.unl.edu/DroughtBasics/TypesofDrought.aspx
SANDRP. (2015, October 2). SANDRP. Retrieved April 23, 2016, from
SANDRP: https://sandrp.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/state-says-59-9rainfall-imd-says-73-highlights-and-discrepancies-of-maharashtrasmonsoon-2015/