Development of Transportation in India: A Broad Perspective

Author(s): T. R. Kesharwani
Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 11, No. 26 (Jun. 26, 1976), pp. 960-964
Published by: Economic and Political Weekly
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4364741
Accessed: 31-01-2017 05:28 UTC
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted
digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about
JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
http://about.jstor.org/terms

Economic and Political Weekly is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to
Economic and Political Weekly

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

SPECIAL ARTICLES:

Development of Transportation in India

A Broad Perspective
T R Kesharwani
The future development of transportation in India can be projected against the backgrolnd of the

existing situation, the changes which have taken place in the past andi the developments which are taking
place here and in other countries. But there are several unpredictable factors, internal to the transportation system and external to it. It is impossible to determine with any precision the future changes in these

factors. It mal still be useful to sketch the broad perspective of development of transportation on the
basis of past and present trends.
portation in India are presented in
TRANSPORTATION in India comprises railways, roads and road vehicles,
Table 1.
inland waterways, shipping and ports,
RAILWVAYS
pipelines, ropeways, air transport,
and airports. The transportation scene
Railways are, today, the most prehas been gradually and continuously
dominant form of transportation in
changing and will change in the fu-

India. However, their growth rate is

much lower than of motor and air

ture.

The future of transportation in

transport. Taking into account the
India can be largely projected in the
past trends and the trends in developcontext of the present situation changes
ed countries, their relative importance
which have taken place in the past,
is likely to decline in future. By 2000
and the developments which are taking AD, no significant addition to the rail

place today not only in India, but in

network

in the country may be expect-

other countries too. But there are seed and the total route length may not
veral rather unpredictable factors which exceed 70,000 kilometres, against 60,234
may be classified into two broad
kilometres in 1973-74. The addition,
groups - viz, internal changes in the
in any case, during the last 23 years
transportation system which will be in was only about 6,638 kilometres. What-

the nature of technological changes, ever additions are made in future will
and external factors. The technological changes in the different modes of
transportation will affect their capital
and running costs and also their efficiency and consequently their relative
demands. External factors, which will

be mainly for the exploitation of mineral resources and for catering to new,

specific, heavy industries. Only a few

new railway lines may be expected to
be laid for opening up backward and
remote areas. The main reasons for

affect the demand for total as well as the small additions to the rail network
for different modes of transportation, are: high cost of construction, very
heavy capacity utilisation needed for
are: the pace of economic developbreak-even, and development of motor
ment, political and social changes,
transport which is comparatively effichanges in the distribution of income,
cient and flexible.
location of industries, changes in the
Although additions to the network
cost of different forns of energy, dewill be marginal, considerable improvevelopment of alternative sources of
energy, volume of intemnational trade ments to the system have been made
in the past, and many more improveand travel, govemment policy (including taxation, etc) towards variousments can be expected in future. Electric and diesel traction, which accountmodes of transportation. It is almost
ed for merely one per cent of total
impossible to determine with any prefreight train kilometres and about 7
cision the future changes in these facper cent of total passenger train kilotors. At the same time, past and premetres in 1950-51, has already increassent trends are'very good though not
ed to about 65 per cent of freight train
perfect guides. Trends in the devekilornetres and 31 per cent of
loped countries are of considerable
passenger train kilometres in 1973-74.
help too in projecting the shape of
A large part of the metre-guage netthings to come.

work may be expected to be convert-

The present situation and the past

ed into broad-guage, all the main lines
growth of the different forms of trans-may be expected to be doubled, and

the trunk lines could be electrified or

at least dieselised. Steam engines

would be reaching near extinction and
would be evident mainly on branch
lines. Soon, in the 21st century, steam
engines will be seen only in museums.
There will be considerable improvements to tracks, signalling, marshalling
yards, and rolling stock - all of
which would result in faster movement and increased utilisation of facilities.

The pattern of goods traffic transported by the railways is likely to

undergo a further change. Between
1950-51 and 1973-74, the total originating traffic on the railways doubled
but the entire increase was accounted

for by eight bulk commodities, viz,

coal, foodgrains, iron and steel, ores,
cement, mineral oil, fertilisers and
limestone, dolomite. The share of

these commodities in total traffic increased during this period from 58

per cent to 79 per cent. By 2000 AD,
the share of these commodities will
grow further and may reach about 90
per cent. Most movements will be in

block rakes. The total volume of other

commodities may remain more or less
constant, or grow only marginally.
Large-scale containerisation, introduction of quick transit services, super
goods expresses, and increase in operational efficiency may help the railways to regain some traffic in other

commodities but the impact may not

be very significant.

In passenger transportation, railways

have been losing short distance traffic
to motor transport and this trend
would continue. The railways have
also started to lose medium distance
traffic to motor transport. However,
with the introduction of faster and
more convenient trains it should be
possible for the railways to attract from
other forms of transportation passenger traffic for the medium distances.

Fast and convenient medium-distance

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

ECONOMIC

AND

trains in foreign countries - such as

Bullet trains between Tokyo and Osaka
in Japan and* fast trains between
Boston and New York - have been
able to divert medium-distance intercity traffic from other forms of trans-

portation. Of long distance traffic, the

railways will have a virtual monopoly
in India for a considerable time to come.
Air travel being very costly, will present very limited competition. The
group of passengers who travel by air
do so either on company account or
government account. Unless technological changes in air transportation
bring it within reach of the common
people, therefore, air transport will be

POLITICAL

WEEKLY

June

26,

1976

TABLE 1: GROWTH OF TRANSPORTAT[ON NcrworiK IN INDIA SiNCE 1950-51

Item Unit 1950-51 1955-56 1960-61 1965-66 1968-69 1973-74

Railway route km 53,596 55,011 56,247 58,399 59,553 60,234

Electrified route km 388 388 748 2,423 3,247 4,191

Goods traffic million

tonnes 93.0 115.9 156.2 203.0 204.0 184.9

Suburban

passengers millions 412 495 680 1,01 1,084 1,437

Non-suburban

passengers millions 872 780 914 1,064 1,129 1,217

Surfaced roads 000

Motor

km 157 209 263 345 393 520

vehicles 000 306 426 664 1,099 1,488 2,045

Cargo hand- mnillion

led by major tonnes 19.2 22.6 39.5 50.2 57.6 64.0
ports

Coastal lakh

shipping grt 2.06 2.40 3.13 3.23 3.30 2.56

limited to a minority. Long distance
Overseas lakh
car travel unlike in the developed
shipping grt 1.67 2.40 5.44 12.17 18.10 28.34
countries such as the US, Canada, and
Petroleum
the European countries - is unlikely to
pipelines km 68 NA NA NA NA 3,763@

become very popular in India because

of the high petrol prices and the comparatively cheap rail travel. Only a
substantial reduction in the tax on
petrol after India becomes self-sufficient in oil, may altar this position.

Indian capacity-

Airlines inillions
tonne - 84 113 153 208 271

Air-India km - 56 162 324 462 898

Note: * 1971-72: @ 1973: g r t gross registered tons.

In suburban travel, railways may be

expected to play a major role. Suburban passengers who in 1950-51 were
less than half the number of nonsuburban passengers have already sur-

links at present. A large number oftransportation, in absolute and in relavillages in the plains also have no alltive terms, has been declining in the
weather. road connections. By 2000
past.. With further development of
AD, all the villages and also remote
roads and motor transport, this trend
hilly and coastal areas is the country is likely to be accelerated. By 2000
passed the number of non-suburban
niay be expected to have all-weather AD, animal transport is likely to dispassengers and their numbers are
links. The length of surfaced roads
appear completely from most of the
growing at a much faster rate. The
in 2000 AD may well reach two mill- cities and considerably reduced in
experience of developed countries is
ion km against only aJbout 70,000 km other areas. Hand-carts and handthat, in spite of the considerable deveof railways - a proportion of nearly rickshaws, which are in use mainly in
lopment of roads, it is impossible to
thirty to one against only three to one the urban areas, are also likely to have
avoid road congestion in the cities
in 1950-51.
more or less the same fate - though
particularly during peak hours. There
The condition of roads is also likelythey may last a little longer than
is thus a tendency to develop rapid
to improve considerably. Main roads animal-driven vehicles.
transit trains for the commuters. Inin the country may be expected to
creasing awareness of the need to conThe fleet of cycles and cycle-rickhave two or more lanes, their surface
trol air pollution is also helping the
shaws is likely to expand in future.
will be better, missing links will be
development of rail services for urban
The production of cycles in the
joined, unbridged river crossings will
commuters. Much before 2000 AD,
country has increased, from nearly one
be bridged, and more inter-state links
the metropolitan towns of Bombay,
lakh in 1950-51 to about 25 lakhs in
will be provided. Long-distance travel
Delhi, Calcutta, and Madras, should
1973-74. This is likely to increase
will become easier and faster. It is,
be expected to have underground rail
further. Cycles have reached rural
however, difficult to say whether, in
systems for their commuters. The
areas in a big way and will further inspite of such developments, congestion
work on the underground rail system
crease. Cycle-rickshaws have also
on the roads in metropolitan towns
in Calcutta has already started.
begun to penetrate the rural areas.
will decrease. Because of the tremendFurther develop'ment of roads in such
ous growth in the automobile populaROADS
areas will enable them to become
tion, the developed countries in the
popular in densely populated regions.
world have not been able to solve the
Unlike the railways, the road netOn the other hand, in the cities, scootcongestion problem in their cities,
work in India has been growing very
ers and motor cycles may be expected
fast. Whereas the length of the rail- though considerable investments have
to replace cycles to a significant extent
gone into expanding road capacities.
way route between 1950-51 and 1973by 2000 AD. Auto-rickshaws could
74 increased by just 12 per cent, the
in
fact pose a serious challenge to
ROAD TRANSPORT
surfaced road network during this
cycle-rickshaws. This, however, will
period increased by as much as by 211
Road vehicles in India encompass
depend to a large extent upon the oil
per cent - nearly 18 times faster
several forms of trjrnsportation prices.
than the rail routes. The road network
such as animal transportation (bullock
Motor transport in India is likely
is likely to grow much faster over the
carts, etc), hand-carts and hand-rickto grow despite the recent substantial
next 25 years. A number of hilly and
shaws, cycles and cycle-rickshaws, and increases in petroleum prices. However,
coastal areas do not have proper road
motor transport. The role of animal
its future growth would very much
961

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

June

26,

1976

ECONOMIC

AND

POLITICAL

WEEKLY

depend on the oil prices. In the

20-point programme. In future, move-

of the country's overseas trade. A

past there has been a phenomenal

ment of road transport is likely to be

maritime country should reasonably

expect to carry about 50 per cent of

growth in motor vehicles. But not all

further liberalised. It should be pos-

types of vehicles have grown in equal

sible to send goods by truck from one

its overseas trade. So the potential

measure. Although the total number

part of the country to another, with-

for expanding Indian shipping is yet

of motor vehicles between 1950L-51

large. Moreover, with relatively cheap

out transhipmients or inter-state hurd-

and 1971-72 have grown from 3 lakhs

les.

to over 20 lakhs, motor-cycles, scooters

and auto-rickshaws increased from
27,000 to about 7 lakhs - a 26-fold
increase, against only seven-fold increase in the total fleet of motor
vehicles. In future, too, the growth
in the number of scooters, motor

cycles, etc, is likely to be greater than

of other vehicles. However, because

of the government policy of lower

taxation of diesel oil than of petrol,

Nationalisation of bus transport,

which stood at about 41 per cent in

1971-72, is likely to be completed in

almnost all the states by 2000 AD.
However, it is doubtful whether any

A several-fold increase in India's over-

seas shipping may be expected by 2000

AD.

significant headway can be made

The public sector is likely to play

an increasingly important role in the

port.' Today, only about one per cent

future expansion of Indian shipping.

of truck transport is in the public

At present, the Shipping Corporation

of India and the Mughal Lines the

sector.

two shipping companies in the public

and also the emphasis on cheap and

to be reduced.

ping lines in the international markets.

towards nationalisation of truck trans-

INLAND WATERWAYS

efficient public transportation system

in the cities where scooters, motor

cycles, etc, are more popular, the
growth rate of such vehicles is likely

manpower, Indian shipping could give

effective competition to foreign ship-

In spite of constant efforts by

government, the role (f inland water-

sector - account for about 50 per

cent of Indian shipping. By 2000 AD,

this share is likely to increase substantially.

ways in the country's transportation

system has declined. Waterways at

Most of the trucks and buses are at

present play an important role only in

present operating on diesel fuel, but

certain pockets of the country - such

there are still a significant number of

vehicles - particularly passenger buses

as. Goa (for transport of iron ore to

Marmrugao port) and Kerala back-

PORTS

Before 1951, the country had five

major ports -. viz, Calcutta, Bombay,

Madras, Cochin, and Visakhapatnam.

which are operating on petrol. It

waters. Waterways also have a role

There were also a large number of

is expected that, well before 2000 AD,

in the Krishna-Godavari river system,

minor ports. Since then, five additions

all the' vehicles will be diesel operated.

in the Mahanadi area, the creek

The present indications in India,

system in Maharashtra, and in Assam.

and the developments in foreign

countries, do not indicate that there

inland waterways has been the develop-

will be any significant increase in the

size of the largest buses available- in
India. But the quality of buses will
improve. Older and smaller buses
would be gradually replaced by larger

and better buses. So far as trucks are

concerned, with the improvement in

the road system a very large nurnber

of truck-trailer combinations may be
seen on the roads, carrying traffic on

long distances. Smaller trucks would

give way to bigger trucks. However,

because of the congestion in the, cities,

smaller vehicles may have an important role to play. By 2000 AD;,
trucks may be expected to replace

bullock carts to a very large extent.

The main reason for the decline of

have been made to the list of major

ports - viz, Kandla, Marmugao, Paradip, Mangalore, and Tuticorin - but
none to the list of minor ports.

ment of more efficient and faster trans-

Whereas the traffic handled by major

port media - such as railways and

ports increased by about 233 per cent

road transport. For the same reason,

between 1950-51 and 1973-74, the

inland waterwaiys may be expected to

lose importance in the future. It will

remained more or less static. More

not be surprising if, by 2000 AD, this

and more minor ports are getting into

mode of transportation exists in name

only.

traffic handled by minor ports has

disuse; at the end of 1972-73, India

had only 117 working minor ports,

against about 218 listed 20 years ago.

SHIPPING

Coastal shipping in India has

remained almost static over the past
25 years. The main reason has been

the development of the railways generally the faster and cheaper mode
if account is taken of the multiple

handlings involved in coastal shipping.

During the, past 25 years, distance

Because of this basic disadvantage, it

restrictions on the movement of motor

is doubtful if coastal shipping will

vehicles have been considerably

ever play a very important role in the

liberalised. In the early fifties, public

transportation system of this country,

carrier permits were generally valid for

barring significant technological in-

a compact area of 75-mile radius. Now

permits for goods vehicles, issued in

novations. In fact, its relative role is

likely to decline. Improvements in

a state', are valid for the entire state.

port facilities may be of some help,

Long-distance passenger buses have

been introduced in almost all the states.

but that alone cannot give sufficient

A large number of passenger vehicles

India has a bright future in overseas

and goods vehicles today operate on

shipping. Between 1950-51 and 1974-

fillip to coastal shipping.

Out of the 117 working minor ports,

69 handled less than 10,000 tonnes in

1972-73.

Any significant addition to the list

of major ports by 2000 AD, is unlikely.

With the expected availability of improved transportation system in the

hinterland of major ports, the growth

of the seaborne traffic in the future
will be catered to largely by the existing major ports. Again, as a result of
improved transportation system and

availability of better facilities, a significant part of the traffic handled by

minor ports may be expected gradually
to get diverted to major ports. The
increase in the size of ships and avail-

ability of deep draft facilities at major

ports' will be further contributory

factors to this trend. Thus, by 2000

the inter-state routes. A national

75, Indian overseas shipping has grown

AD, several existing minor ports may

permit scheme for truck operators has

been recently introduced by the

from 1.67 lakh gross registered tons

to 35.18 lakhs gross registered tons.

of India.

Central government as p>art of the

Still, it caters to only about one-fourth

be virtually wiped out from the map

Much before 2000 AD, our major

962

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

ECONOMIC

AND

POLITICAL

WEEKLY

June

26,

1976

ports may be expected to be moder-

the early fifties. They then improved

ment of the four international airports

nised and made capable of handling

to Viscounts and Fokker Friendships,

in the country, viz, Bombay, Delhi,

deep-draft ships. In view of significant

and thereafter to Caravelles. Now

Calcutta and Madras - has already

increases in the quantum of bulk com-

they are operating a number of Boeing

started to draw up plans for separate

modities handled at the major ports

737s. Soon they will operate the wide-

international passenger terminal com-

(such as oil and ore), and keeping in

bodied Airbus. Air India, who were

plexes capable of further expansion,

view considerable increase in the size

operating Constellations and Super-

in phases, without dislocating the

of ships, deeper draft facilities have

Constellations in the fifties, are now

operating Boeing 707s and Boeing 747s

existing traffic. The facilities are ex-

been either already developed or are

being developed at the major ports of

(Jumbos). Apart from the increase in

cater to the growing requirements of

pected to be modern and efficient. To

Calcutta, Visakhapatnam, Madras,

the size of the aircraft, the modern

the international cargo traffic, separate

Marmugao, and Cochin. A new deep

aircraft are faster and consume less

terminals are to be built at the inter-

draft port at Nheva Sheva near Bom-

fuel per unit of capacity as compared

to the older types of aircraft.

at Calcutta has already been commis-

bay is also proposed to be developed.

Because of the very rapid techno-

PIPELINES

Pipeline is a specialised form of

transportation of comparatively recent
origin in India, for the transportation
of petroleum products. The first

pipeline in the country w-as laid

between Digboi and Tinsukia in Assam

in 1926. There was no other till the

Five-Year Plan era. However, considerable progress has been made
recently. In 1973, the country thus
had 3,763 kilometres of petroleum

pipelines. A number of pipelines are

under construction too, and some

others are proposed to be constructed.

Pipelines being a cheaper and safer

method for bulk transportation of

petroleum products, more and more

pipelines are expected to be laid in

future. The railways could expect to

national airports. The cargo terminal

sioned.

logical changes in the aircraft industry,

it is difficult to imagine where the race
will end and what will be the shape

of aircraft in 2000 AD. It is, however, definite that the aircraft of 2000

AD will be much more modern than

the present ones. Supersonic aircraft

have already started operations for

commercial purposes. VTOL (Vertical

Take Off and Landing) aircraft, and

STOL (Short Take Off and Landling)
aircraft, are future possibilities which

may operate along with the present

CTOL (Conventional Take Off and
Landing) aircraft.

At this stage, it definitely appears

that the growth of air transport will

be faster compared to other forms of

transportation - particularly in the

RELANVE POSITIONS
As brought out earlier, in future,

rail, road, and air will be the most

important forms of transportation.
However, in the past, growth rates of

these transportation media have been

different, affecting their relative positions. The growth rate of passenger
transport has been the highest by air

transport, followed by road transport.

In the case of goods transport, the

growth rate by road transport has been
the highest, followed bv air transport. It
appears that these trends may continue in future. Several factors, as mentioned earlier, are likely to distort the

past trends, and take the different

forms of transportation into different

directions. Making the ad hoc assump-

lines. Subject to technological innovations, pipelines may be expected to be

field of passenger transport. However,

the exact growth will be dependent
upon several factors, including oil
prices, technologiical changes, and
development of alternative sources of

used for the movement of other bulk

energy in which field considerable

2. The past and present pictures are

AIRPORTS

from and to India, there are, in main,

gradually lose their share of the traffic

in petroleum products to the pipe-

commodities, such as coal, ore, etc.

tion, has not made any noticeable im-

pact in the country. At present,

ropeways are used for carrying bulk

materials such as sand, coal, stone,

ore, etc, over short distances. Most
of the ropeways in the country are

located in the colliery areas in the

eastern region. They do not appear

balance each other out, the relative

picture of rail, road, and air in 2000
AD may be roughly as seen in Table

also presented in the Table.

effort is being mnade in some countries.
In the field of international traffic

ROPENVAYS

Ropeways, as a form of transporta-

tion that such forces will more or less

The airports in India in 2000 AD

two modes of transportation, viz, sea

will appear very different from what

and air. Sea transport, which handled

more passengers than air in 1950-51,

they are today. The exact shape will,

however, depend upon technological innovations in the aircraft industry. Keep-

now accounts for less than one-fourth

ing in view the future growth in

traffic, the International Airports

of the number of air passengers. In

absolute terms, too, the number of
persons using sea transport is fast dec-

Authority of India - which is responsible for the management and develop-

lining. Sea transport has, however,

maintained its supremacy in cargo

to have much potential for future

development, though they will continue

TABLE 2: RELATIVE ROLE OF RAm, ROAD AND AIR IN 2000 AD

to be used for carrying bulk commodities over short distances for some

Traffic Percentage, Share

industries which require constant

inflow and outflow of materials.

Year

Rail

(1)

(2)

Road
(3)

Air
(4)

Rail
(5)

Road
(6)

Air
(7)

(I) Passenger Traffic (Billion passenger Kilometres)

AIR TRANSPORT

1950-51

Air transport is at present the most

modern and efficient mode of transportation. It has undergone maximum

technological changes over the past 25
years. Indian Airlines were operating

Dakotas, Vikings, tand Skymasters in

67

23

0.2

74.3

25.5

0.2

1973-74 136 130 2.2 50.7 48.5 0.8

2000-01 425 700 35.0 36.6 60.4 3.0
(II) Goods Traffic (Billion tonne Kilometres)
1950-51 44 5.5 0.020 88.85 11.11 0.04
1973-74 122 65 0.037 65.23 34.75 0.02
2000-01 250 1000 0.400 19.99 79.98 0.03

963

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

June

26,

1976

ECONOMIC

AND

POLITICAL

WEEKILY

traffic. The traffic handled by air is at

present less than one-tenth of one per
cent of the total international traffic

transport will be the leading mode of

as passenger traffic is concerned. In

transportation for several decades to

from and to India!

port, so far as passenger traffic is coni-

cargo traffic, air transport will trail

far behind sea transport, even though
the growth rate of air transport may

cerned, will be higher than road trans-

be higher.

By 2000 AD, indeed much before

then, air transport will replace sea

transport so far as international pas-

senger traffic is concerned, except

perhaps for very short distances. On

the other hand, road transport may

gain importance for tourist traffic because of the fast development of roads
in many countries and the opening up
of overland routes. For cargo, sea
transport is expected to continue to
remain supreme, despite slight improvement in the relative position of air transport consequent to its faster growth rate.

come. T'he growth rate of air trans-

port. But as a means of transporta-

Investment in rail, road transport

tion, it will remain far behind road

and air transport will gradually in-

transport. In the case of goods traffic,

crease. But the proportion of investment in road transport may rise, in

rail transport it may fall, and in air
transport it may increase marginally.

growth by road transport will be the

fastest, followed by air transport. Rail

transport will grow but its growth
rate in both passenger and goods traf-

to India, air transport is likely to re-

[The views expressed in this article

do not in any way purport to represent the views of the organisation

place sea transport by 2000 AD, so far

where the author is employed.]

fic will be slow.

In the international traffic from and

De-industrialisation Revisited

SHIFTS IN INVESTMIENT

In keeping with the changes in the

relative growth of railways, road
transport, and air transport, there has
been a visible shift in the relative level

of outlays on these modes of transportation in the Five Year Plans. In the

Third Plan, the outlay on railways, as
a percentage of total outlay on railways, road transport, and air transport, was about 60 per cent. It dropped to about 33 per cent in the Fourtb
Plan. On the other hand, the percentage of outlay on road transport between these periods increased from

38 per cent to 60 per cent. In the

case of air transport too there was an
increase - from 2.2 per cent to 6.5
per cent.

In future, unless there are significant

changes in technology or in oil prices,
investment in roads and road transport is likely to be heavy; the proportion is also likely to increase. The
proportion of investment in railways
is likely to decrease though the level
of investment in absolute terms is likely to increase. The level of investment
in air transport will also increase but
its proportion may increase marginally.
CONCLUSION

It is difficult to present a clear picture of the transportation scene in

India in 2000 AD, because the demand for transportation is a derived

demand and depends upon several

factors which cannot be predicted
with any degree of precision. The
trend in oil prices in future is the most
important single imponderable factor.
However, on the basis of the indications available - not only in India
but also in other countries - rail,

road, air, and pipelines have significant roles in the future domestic
transportation system. But road

J Krishnamurthy
SOME years ago' I had argued that
Thorner's disproof of de-industrialisation on the basis of working fo'rce
data for the period 1881-1951 was
invalid as industrialisation and deindustrialisation must be defined in
terms of changes in the share of
manufacturing output to total output,
or in terms of changes in manufacturing output per capita or per worker

engaged. I also showed that for the

period 1911-1951 the share of the
manufacturing sector in the male work
force declined iuntil 1931 and then
returned in 1951 to its 1911 level. I
suggested that changes in the internal
composition of the manuafcturing sector could have implied an increase
over time in output per worker for
the sector as a whole, and possibly a
rise in sectoral output.

Eight years after the appearance of

that paper in the Indian Economic

and Social History Review, Raghabendra Chattopadhyay presented a
"reconsideration" in this journal.2 The
present paper examines Chattopadhyay's criticisms and assertions relating
to the work of Thorner and myself. It
also tries to sort out the evidence, to
see what conclusions follow, and to
evaluate Chattopadhyay's contribution
to the debate.
PPOBLEM OF DEFINITION

Chattopadhyay objects to my definition of de-industrialisation. He quotes

me:

"Industrialisation means a rise in

the share of manufacturing output
per capita. This is historically associated with a rise in the share of

manufacturing in the total working

force. But a rise in the ratio of
workers in manufacturing is neither
a necessary nor a sufficient condition

for industrialisation in any theoretical sense. By the same token, a

decline in the share of manufacturing in total output or a decline in
manufacturing output per capita
constituteS de-industrialisation. A
decline in the share of manufacturing in total working force is by no
means a necessary or a sufficient
conditilon."3

Chattopadhyay then cites a number

of cases of "pocket" or "enclave"
economies: he does not regard them
as cases of industrialisation, while I
do. But I would describe them as

cases of "lop-sided" or "limited" industrialisation, worthy of serious further study. Our difference in this regard appears to me to be terminological. I would add that I ought to
have emphasised in my 1967 paper

that I was looking for sustained unidirectional processes of change, not

for small increases or decreases in the
relevant ratios between two or three
decades.

In spelling out his own position

Chattopadhyay feels "we can evolve
the following criteria for the study of
changes in an economy vis-a-vis industrialisation: (i) change in the NNP
or National Income; (ii) change in the
ratio of manufacturing output to the
total output (or NNP); and (iii) change
in the manufacturing working force
with respect to total population. If all
these three factoirs increase over the
years we can strictly difine a process
of industrialisation. Similarly, a decline in all three factors will striictly
indicate a process of de-industrialisation. On the other hand, a decline in
the second or third factor alone, together with a constant national income
(or NNP) will also indicate a process
of de-industrialisation".4 In Table 1

we present these possibilities schema-

964

This content downloaded from 42.104.112.132 on Tue, 31 Jan 2017 05:28:54 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms