RESEARCH NOTE

Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

A. Aparna

Abstract
Crude oil prices play a very significant role on the

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) has been used to analyse

economy of any country. India's growth story hovers

the objective since a direct causal relationship could

around the import of oil as India imports 70% of its

not be established.

crude requirements. In this paper, an attempt has

been made to study the impact of crude oil price on the

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Index of

Indian economy by considering Gross Domestic

Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index

Product (GDP), Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and

(WPI), Vector Auto Regression (VAR).

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as the relevant variables.

ISSN: 0971-1023 | NMIMS Management Review

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Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

141

Introduction

could be adversely affected by the increase in crude oil

The recent rise in the prices of crude oil has drawn

price are usually characterized by high net imports of

everyones attention towards the crucial role that oil

oil per GDP. Traditionally, the non-oil producing

plays in the economy of any nation. Crude oil is one of

developing countries fall under this category. Against

the most necessitated commodities in the world and

this background, developed countries are more

India imports around 100 million tons of crude oil and

economical in their usage of oil and therefore, see an

other petroleum products. This in turn, results in

easing of this adverse effect of rise in crude oil prices.

spending huge amounts of foreign exchange. The

This phenomena has led to many European developed

increasing quantum of imports of petroleum products

countries enjoying a significant inflow of oil money.

has a significant impact on the Indian economy,

especially when crude oil prices are shooting up

Today, we may find a negative impact of rise in crude oil

globally. Crude oil not only serves as a source of energy

prices. A steep fall in the current accounts leads to

but also as a major raw material to various industries.

further worsening of the treasury budgets, which, in

With no major discoveries in the recent years, the

turn, will further worsen the balance between savings

increasing costs of production have pushed up crude

and investments. Also, reducing tax revenues and

oil prices globally. Also, the high volatility in the prices

other extraneous factors will further deteriorate the

of oil breaching the $100/barrel mark and rising to a

treasury budgets. Due to the economic crisis in

high of $147/barrel could be attributed to the fact that

Europe, where the treasury budgets have shaken,

in the recent years, many index funds have taken

there is a monumental imbalance between savings

positions in commodities considering oil to be an asset

and investments. These imbalances continue

stock in their portfolios. It has been usually observed

worsening because of rising crude oil prices, which

that in India, the pricing scheme is designed in such a

threaten to push the economy into much deeper crisis.

way that it offers a system to moderate the soaring

When a country has a fixed nominal exchange rate and

international oil prices and thereby study the impact

there is also an output gap, increases in oil prices leads

on growth, inflation, etc.

to an increase in the general price levels. According to a

RBI report (2005), for every unit dollar increase in

In spite of the global economy being affected due to

crude oil price, WPI inflation rises by 30 basis points.

the European debt crisis, crude oil prices are soaring

Kaushik Bhattacharya et al. (2005) analysed the impact

against a backdrop of increasing tensions around the

of increase in oil price on inflation. They studied the

situation in Iran. The price of Brent crude has gone

mechanism of increase in the prices of petroleum

beyond $120 per barrel. This spike in crude oil price

products on the prices of other commodities and the

significantly increases the energy costs of every

output in India. In February 1999, from an all time low

country and becomes a major concern in the fragile

of 11 U.S Dollars per barrel, it increased to a peak of 35

global economy.

dollars in the first week of September 2000. Due to

this, all oil importing countries faced the threat of oil

The impact of rising oil prices on the economy differs

shock; India, being a major oil importer, was

from country to country depending upon individual

particularly affected.

energy supply and demand structures. Countries that

142

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Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

Historically, there have been four oil shocks in the past

Strategically, oil plays a very significant role in the

thirty years. In spite of this, low inflationary pressure

economy of any country. Keeping this in view, an

has been assisting the developed countries in

attempt has been made in this paper to explore the

mitigating the risk associated with oil shocks. Contrary

relationship between volatility in oil prices and its

to this, developing countries are affected more

impact on the Indian economy. This topic is pertinent

because of the absence of advanced technology to

to the current situation when India imports almost

conserve oil.

90% of its oil requirements. The objective of this paper

is to determine the relationship between increase in

Literature reveals that most researchers agree with the

oil price and the change in GDP, IIP and WPI.

fact that inflation has a recessionary effect on oil

prices. According to Bruno (1982), oil price shocks lead

Methodology: Oil impacts the economy through

to an increase in wages and prices, and decrease in real

various channels. This study restricts itself to analyzing

output. The same conclusion was substantiated by

the direct impact of oil prices on the WPI and IIP, and

Hamilton (1983) using the Vector Auto regression

thereby on the GDP of the country. Quarterly data

(VAR) technique. Burbidge and Harrison (1984) found

from 1995 till 2008 has been considered for the study

that the impact was different across different

which has been obtained from the CMIE database. The

countries in spite of the fact that all were developed

variables that have been considered for the study are

countries. Hooker (1996) on the other hand, found

as follows:

that the causal relationship between oil prices and

macro-economic variables weakened post 1973 and

GDPX: Log normal change in Indian GDP (in Rs.)

were not able to capture the dynamics of business.

Christini (1998) observed a very strong correlation

IIPX: Log normal change in Index of Industrial

between macroeconomic factors and oil prices.

Production (in Rs.)

In India, increase in petroleum prices often results in

CPX: Log normal change in Crude oil price per barrel (in

debates among the public. This indirectly results in

Rs.)

delay in any kind of adjustment in prices and in the long

run, creates a bigger shock. It also impacts the prices of

WPIX: Log normal change in Inflation measured in

all those commodities which use these products as

terms of Wholesale Price Index (WPI)

inputs and can lead to a subsequent spike in the wage

prices which is evident from the 1970 oil shock. Most

Since the series is non-stationary and increasing, log

of the earlier studies in the Indian context are based on

normal values have been considered. Direct causal

estimating the cost push effect of a hike using input-

relationship (Grangers Causality) using a series of t-

output analysis. Rangarajan et al (1981) and Sastry

tests and F tests could not be established between the

(1982) used input-output analysis to estimate the cost-

variables. In this paper, VAR models are used to analyse

push effect of a hike. This method is not useful in

multi-variate time series data, because they are

estimating the shock over a long period of time given

extremely helpful in analysing the dynamic behaviour

its static nature.

of economic and financial time series. Also, the

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Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

143

superiority of VAR Models as compared to any other

The right hand side of each equation includes lagged

causal analysis is one of the reasons for it to be used in

values of all dependent variables in the system.

this paper. Lastly, since the paper brings in the aspect

of policy analysis, VAR as a technique has been found
to be appropriate. VAR is a multi-equation system
where all the variables are treated as endogenous. The
k- variable VAR model is given as:

is the error term which is a nx1 matrix.

An explicit causal relationship cannot be established
between the variables considered and hence VAR is
preferred.
Hypothesis: The hypothesis proposed here is as

where

below:

is an (nx1) vector of time series variables.

are nxn coefficient matrices.

There is a significant relationship between change in

manufacturing IIP, GDP growth, WPI change and crude
oil price change.

Results:
The Vector Auto Regressive estimates, R-Squared and the Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz criterion are
shown in the following table:
Vector Auto Regressive Estimates:

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Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

(Standard Errors in () and t-Statistic in [ ] )

R- squared and The Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz criterion Table :

The Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz criterion are the least for a lag of two therefore indicating that a lag
of two periods is the optimal. The high value of R-squared for GDP and IIP indicates a good fit between these
variables against WPI and IIP. The F values also indicate a significant relationship at 10% level of significance.
Hence, we may not reject the hypothesis. Therefore, we may say that there exists a significant relationship
between the GDP growth, manufacturing IIP, WPI and crude oil price. The relationship between the variables is as
under:

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Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

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146

Any positive change in the crude oil price has an

It can be seen that the analysis conforms with the

immediate negative impact on the increment in the

discussion that the system does have a long term

GDP and IIP whereas it affects the WPI positively.

memory and has an effect for more than 10 quarters in

While GDP and IIP show signs of oscillating decay over

case of GDP and IIP while for WPI, the system returns

a period of time, WPI, after a positive increment,

to its original value immediately as compared to

returns to its original value within four months. A

others, thereby having a short term memory. Any

shock or impulse when given to WPI affects GDP in the

sudden change in the price of oil has the ability to

same fashion considering the fact that WPI also

impact the industrial growth adversely. It also causes a

includes other terms apart from fuel which constitute

very high spurt in the WPI. Altogether, change in oil

nearly 14.23% weight directly but also indirectly

price, WPI increase and declining IIP affect the

influences other commodity baskets. It also affects the

economy negatively and even if the impulse or shock is

IIP negatively and the effects last for a considerable

short term, it has a long lasting impact on the

period of time showing signs of oscillating decay.

economy.

ISSN: 0971-1023 | NMIMS Management Review

Double Issue: Volume XXIII October-November 2013
University Day Special Issue January 2014

Impact of Oil Prices on the Indian Economy

References
1. Burbridge, J and A Harrison (1984) Testing for the effects of oil price rises using vector autoregressions,
International Economic Review, 25, pp 459-84
2. Bruno, M (1982) Adjustment and structural change under supply shocks, Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
84, pp 199-221
3. Bruno, M and J. Sachs (1982) Input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth : The case of U.K.
Manufacturing. Review of Economic Studies,49 (Special Issue),pp 679-705
4. Cristini (1998) Unemployment and Primary Commodity prices : Theory and Evidence in a Global Perspective,
St. Martins Press, New York.
5. Hamilton, J D (1983) Oil and Macroeconomy since World War II, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp 228-48
6. Hooker, M A (1996) What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, Journal of Monetary
Economics, 38, pp 195-213.
7. Bhattacharya, Kaushik and Bhattacharya , Indranil (2001) Impact of Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation and
Output in India, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.36, No.51, pp 4735-4741.
8. Rangarajan,C. ,R. Sah and K.S. Reddy (1981) Impact of Hike in Prices of Coal and Petroleum Products on the
Other Sectors of the Economy: An Application of Input-Output Technique, Artha Vignana, 23, pp 176-81
9. Sastry, D V S (1982) Impact of the Rise in the Prices of the Petroleum Products on the General Price Level1970-1971 to 1980-81, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Paper, 3 , pp 68-93

Dr. A. Aparna has done her Ph.D. in Statistics. She has more than 10 years of teaching experience. She is
currently working with NMIMS, Bangalore. Her research areas include supply chain management and
econometrics. She can be reached at Aparna.a@nmims.edu

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147