January 2017

California Housing Market Outlook

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017f

SFH Resales (000s)

422.6

439.8

414.9

382.7

409.4

416.3

419.6

% Change

1.4%

4.1%

-5.9%

-7.8%

7.0%

1.7%

0.8%

$286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3

$525.4

Median Price ($000s)

% Change

-6.2%

11.6%

27.5%

9.8%

6.6%

5.4%

4.6%

Housing Affordability
Index

53%

51%

36%

30%

31%

31%

28%

30-Y r FRM

4.5%

3.7%

4.0%

4.2%

3.9%

3.6%

4.4%

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sales and Price up in 2016 and in 2017

Median Price

Sales of Existing Detached Homes

$600

700

$500

500

419.6
416.3

400
300
200

Price (Thousand)

Units (Thousand)

600

$502

$525

$400
$300
$200
$100

100

$0

0
2005

2007

2009

2011

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2013

2015

2017f

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017f

CA: Dollar Volume

Up 7.2% in 2016, Up 5.4% in 2017
$ in Billion
$400

$ Volume of Sales

% Change
30%

Percent Change

$350
$300

20%
$301
10%
$244

$250

$195

$200

$169

$164

$150

$133

$131

$127

$121

$209

$220

$171

0%
-10%

$140

-20%

$100
$50

-30%

$0

-40%
2005

2006

2007

2008

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016p

2017f

U.S. Economic Outlook

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016p

2017f

US GDP

1.6%

2.2%

1.7%

2.4%

2.6%

1.6%

2.1%

Nonfarm Job
Growt h

1.2%

1.7%

1.7%

1.9%

2.1%

1.8%

1.3%

Unemployment

8.9%

8.1%

7.4%

6.2%

5.3%

4.9%

4.7%

CPI

3.1%

2.1%

1.5%

1.6%

0.1%

1.4%

2.4%

Real Disposable
Income, % Change

2.5%

3.2%

-1.4%

2.7%

3.4%

2.7%

3.0%

30-Y r FRM

4.5%

3.7%

4.0%

4.2%

3.9%

3.6%

4.4%

SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

California Economic Outlook

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016p

2017f

1.1%

2.4%

3.0%

2.2%

2.7%

2.3%

1.9%

11.8%

10.4%

8.9%

7.5%

6.2%

5.5%

5.4%

Population Grow th

0.7%

0.7%

0.9%

0.9%

0.9%

0.9%

1.0%

Real Disposable
Income, % Change

3.5%

4.7%

-1.1%

3.2%

3.6%

3.0%

4.5%

Nonfarm Job
Grow th
Unemployment Rate

SERIES: CA Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS