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Agenda
Research Problem & Relevance
Background
Research Design
- SD Model & Optimization
- Scenarios
Transition
Phase
Towards
Smart Grid
Costs
- Will be passed on to the end customer in all likeliness
- Simultaneously: Extra cost from transition towards renewables
Research Design ( 1 / 2 )
Development
- Practical approach
- In conjunction with DSO consultancy
- Advice
- Software
- Advise from 3 Asset Management experts from large DSO
Scope
- Germany
- Distribution part of electricity grid (DSO)
Research Design ( 2 / 2 )
Exploratory Analysis
- No fixed hypothesis
- Scenario Approach: Base Case + 7 Scenario groups
- Scientific use of scenario-making : Brjeson et al. (2006)
SD-Model Structure
Aging Chain through 4 quality conditions
10
Asset List
11
Steps of Analysis
Scenario Groups
Steps of Analysis
Scenario Groups
Group 1&2:
Passive (Replacement on failure, replacement on
entering condition 4)
Group 3&4
(Fast = 15 years and slow =25 years)
Group 5 & 6
(Found at ~ 17 Million /yr)
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Cost
Management Risk
13
Service Quality
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Fast
Transformation
(15 yrs)
Slow
Transformation
(25 yrs)
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Central characteristic of transition period for DSO: Coping with rising management risk
through asset condition
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17
2014
Cost Optimum
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2030
Policy Recommendations
For Regulators: Overlap transition as far as possible with refurbishment
-
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Methodologically
- Computing Power
- Tools to analyse (investment strategy) parameter space
- Statistically
- Algorithms
Data
- Price development of new assets
- Closer analysis when uncertainties are cleared
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Thank You!
Supervisors
Partners at Entellgenio
Partners at DSO
Family
Friends
Questions or comments?
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BACKUP
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How do we reach
SG integration?
Optimization Example
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Steps of Analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
(6.
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Scenario Groups
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
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